One Month To Go!
As is tradition here with one month to go (regular season ends on 4/18/07), it’s time to break down who the serious contenders for the crown really are. This year, however, I’m going to do things a little differently. Since in my first attempt at a list (‘Top 10 Shows of 2006’) I went 1 to 10 (a major no-no I’ve since been told), I’m going to do it right this time and drop a little knowledge on all 30 teams in reverse order.
Ready. Set. Go!
LOTTERY BOUND
East
Boston (20-46) – The Celtics have been playing better since Paul Pierce’s return, but they stunk so bad in the middle of the season that their “run” isn’t going to hurt their ping-pong ball total too much.
If Boston were to land a top two pick they could be playoff material faster than you think. Al Jefferson has improved his consistency and Rajon Rondo is a jump shot away from being the best PG from the 2006 class. The Celts are also well stocked with plenty of young trade assets. Couple that with PP getting antsy, and this summer is make-or-break time for Executive Director Danny Ainge.
Charlotte (24-43) – In the last month Michael Jordan has issued an “open letter to the fans” in the local paper, given two sit down interviews with the press and announced that Bernie Bickerstaff will not return as coach next season. MJ’s underlying message in all these moves has been, “We’re right on schedule with where we want to be and we will spend money.” OK. Fine. Now prove it.
It’s going to big summer for the Bobcats with Gerald Wallace likely to opt out of his contract, Emeka Okafor eligible for an extension and Matt Carroll an unrestricted free agent (three starters). With the Adam Morrison pick looking shaky at best, I hope MJ does have a plan, for his own sake.
Milwaukee (25-41) – The firing of Terry Stotts should not have surprised any of my readers. Even the timing makes sense when you consider that the University of Utah was making a play for assistant Larry Krystkowiak. Stotts was the typical “nice guy” coach, which never ever works in the NBA.
In Krystkowiak the Bucks get a no nonsense defense first coach, which is exactly what they needed if you ask me. Apparently Larry K also has a better relationship with Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva (both having underachieved this season), so that should help too.
GM Larry Harris does have to be careful not to overpay Mo Williams this off season, but with a healthy CV and Bobby Simmons in the fold, and a renewed focus on D, the Bucks should be a playoff contender next year.
Atlanta (26-41) – For the Hawks it’s as simple as getting their seemingly never ending ownership struggle resolved. Once that happens, and a new coach and GM are hired, Atlanta does have the assets to make some moves. Couple those moves (a legit PG & a defensive minded big man) with the nice young core of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia, and the Hawks are playoff contenders immediately.
Philadelphia (26-41) – Settle down 76er fans. Me saying that they are lottery bound is not a slight. In fact, Philly has played better than I ever expected they could post the Allen Iverson trade. The team plays hard for coach Maurice Cheeks every night and Andre Iguodala’s development has come along very nicely. I’m not sure what more you could ask for?
That said, don’t get too carried away with their “success”. While the Sixers defense has improved slightly, they still don’t rebound the ball and are paper thin up front. I don’t expect too much from them next year, but with two good drafts and some wise free agent signings two summers from now, they should be back in the mix for the 2008-09 season.
West
Memphis (17-50) – President Jerry West has always been an innovator, and I believe he set the model for tanking this season. See, what you do is take a coach with a proven track record (Mike Fratello) and replace him with a guy that has absolutely no business running an NBA team (Tony Barone Sr.). This way everyone thinks you’re much worse than you really are because it appears that everybody is giving their best.
Whatever the case may be, these Grizzlies annoy the hell out of me. They have no clue how to play the game, an owner that desperately wants to sell and a GM who’s contract is up after the draft. Something tells me that the NBA is not long for Memphis, but maybe a top two pick changes that.
Seattle (26-40) – For some reason I don’t think the SuperSonics are all that bad. Granted, they play no defense and can’t rebound worth a dime, but they can score with the best of them. Maybe I’m confusing entertainment with quality.
Anyway, with the franchise destined for Oklahoma City by the ’08-09 season at the latest, I’m not sure if they should blow it up now or try and maintain so the OKC faithful have something to root for upon arrival? Whichever way they decide to go the lynch pin will be Rashard Lewis. Do they resign him, sign & trade him or let him go for nothing? And who’s making that decision anyway? I guess only time will tell.
Portland (26-40) – Let me just start off with, yes the Trail Blazers really are lottery bound. I know they show promise and all, but their effort is way too inconsistent to string together the wins it would take for them to make the playoffs.
That said, I don’t think there’s a club under this heading that shows more promise than Portland. If they make zero moves this summer they should still improve next year just because Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge can only get better. Of course whoever is named the new GM (I’m pulling for Kiki Vandeweghe) is going to want to put his stamp on the team, although coach Nate McMillan’s job should be safe. I’d like to see the new guy trade both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles (yes, I believe in miracles) by using Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw as bait.
STILL HAVE A SHOT, BUT ONE AND DONE IF THEY GET IN
East
Orlando (31-37) – No squad has been more of mystery then the Magic. Since their 13-4 start they have gone 17-33. By all rights they should be better than that, but the numbers don’t lie. I’ve noticed a few problems along the way.
1) Dwight Howard is not ready to be a go-to-guy.
2) Grant Hill is too unreliable (injuries) to be counted on, and Orlando is lost without him on the floor.
3) Jameer Nelson has regressed big time.
4) Darko Milicic has talent but is lazy and somewhat of a Prima Donna.
5) Carlos Arroyo is not a good teammate.
Even with all that, I still think they should be a playoff team in the East. Coach Brian Hill has been given a vote of confidence, so I expect GM Otis Smith to be very busy this summer, possibly doing a sign & trade with both Hill and Milicic.
New York (30-36) – I’d like their chances much better if Jamal Crawford and David Lee were healthy. As is, they certainly have a shot because all the clubs in this grouping are struggling mightily. Although Eddy Curry and Stephon Marbury both seem to be running out of gas lately.
I have to say that I’ve enjoyed the drama of the Knicks all season long, but with President/coach Isiah Thomas already getting his contract extended, I’ve suddenly lost interest in them. But hey, Steve Francis is healthy again!
Indiana (30-35) – The Pacers are swirling the bowl BIG time. Recent losers of 11 in a row and 14 of 18 overall, they just seem to have no fight left in them. (Unless you count Jamaal Tinsley’s late night activities.) Jermaine O’Neal being hobbled with a left knee sprain is probably at the root of the problem, but missing Marquis Daniels with left knee tendinitis has also hurt them.
Indy was never a super-athletic team to begin with, and now they are downright pedestrian all around (with the exception of Danny Granger). CEO Donnie Walsh’s contract expires after the season, but I’d look for him to resign for at least one more year. You can be sure that The Don does not want to go out like this. I expect him to reach for the dynamite and completely overhaul this roster in the off season.
West
Minnesota (28-37) – How this team manages to hang around is beyond me. Their roster is almost devoid of talent and their depth is a joke. As proof of this I offer up new coach Randy Wittman, who is a robust 8-17 since taking over. See, sometimes it really *is* the players.
I always say this when typing about the Timberwolves, but it’s a testament to Kevin Garnett’s greatness that they are even remotely in the playoff picture. Since KG refuses to ask for a trade (he did recently drop a hint that he may opt out of his contract after next season though), here’s to hoping that Kevin McHale is replaced by Fred Hoiberg as the man calling the shots in Minne. KG deserves at least that much for his loyalty alone.
Sacramento (29-37) – The Kings are an aging over the salary cap mess of a club that doesn’t listen to their coach and has poor chemistry taboot. They are far too inconsistent to make a realistic run at the playoffs. The bigger problem is, I don’t know how you fix this team.
Who wants Mike Bibby (2 years, 28 million left on his contract), Ron Artest (2 & 16), Brad Miller (3 & 34), Kenny Thomas (3 & 24), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (3 & 19) or John Salmons (4 & 21)? Exactly. It’s going to take all of President Geoff Petrie’s brilliance to make lemonade out of those lemons.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (29-37) – I had been thinking that something was wrong with Chris Paul for a few weeks now, as he just didn’t look like himself. So news that he has a stress reaction in his left foot put me at ease, but probably killed the Hornets chances.
Peja Stojakovic is back practicing with the team, and not a moment too soon. NO/OKC is going to need his scoring if they are to make a final playoff push.
The Hornets season was derailed by injuries, but I honestly do not think they are that far away. CP3, David West and Tyson Chandler is a very nice core, and Byron Scott is an underrated coach. If GM Jeff Bower can tinker around the edges, the people of New Orleans are in for good squad next year.
Clippers (30-36) – What a difference a year makes, eh? From the NBA’s biggest surprise to one of the league’s bigger disappointments in one season. I find it ironic that as soon as Owner Donald Sterling lays out some serious coin, it backfires on him. I’m speaking mainly about Chris Kaman and coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. I have faith that Kaman can still turn things around, but Dunleavy? Not so much.
I think it’s pretty obvious that Dunleavy’s perpetual feud with Corey Maggette has undermined his voice in the locker room. The Clips have way too much talent to be this mediocre. They also play uninspired and careless way too often, and that’s a reflection on the coach. It’s funny because now that Sterling has laid out the cash, this is the team Los Angeles is stuck with. So they either right the ship internally, or go down with it together.
Golden State (32-36) – I know all the Bay Area peeps are psyched because the Warriors have been very exciting to watch when Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins have started together. That’s all well and good, but they still play no defense and don’t rebound. It’s very hard to string together a bunch of wins by outscoring the opposition.
On the other hand, I’d have to say that coach Don Nelson’s return to GS has been a success. I’m not basing that on wins and losses but more so on the premise that he’s made the Warriors relevant again. The next step from relevant to playoffs in a big one though, and it’s on Executive Vice President Chris Mullin to get the kind of players Nellie needs to make that happen.
MOST LIKELY IN, AND COULD PULL OFF AN UPSET
East
New Jersey (31-36) – With the return of Richard Jefferson the Nets are as dangerous as anyone in the East. That is, if they play defense. NJ’s offense isn’t as consistent as it used to be, but more often than not they score enough points to win. It’s their defensive effort that fluctuates wildly from night to night, but when the Nets are focused on that end, they can beat anybody.
The future of NJ hinges on what Vince Carter decides to do this summer. If he opts out of his contract, it could be rebuilding time in the swamp. However, if he decides to stick around one more year I could see President Rod Thorn giving this group another try with a healthy Nenad Krstic. As is, the Nets have enough playoff experience to give any team a tough time in the first round.
West
Lakers (35-32) – That promising squad from the ‘Mid-Season Report’ is long gone and has been replaced by a largely apathetic group that seems to be playing out the string right now. There’s no doubt that Los Angeles has been hit hard by injuries, but their problems run deeper than that.
The main thing I see with the Lakers right now is poor chemistry that emanates from two cancers. Smush Parker and Brian Cook. Both have had public run-ins with coach Phil Jackson over their minutes and touches. Smush has taken to pouting every time he gets benched and not joining team huddles unless he’s in the game. After Cook threw his warm-ups at Phil one night he has become a complete gunner that doesn’t ever look to pass the ball.
Couple that with LA’s constant lack of defensive intensity and you have a team that peaked too early and is now backing into the playoffs. That said, the opposition has to be wary of any club with Jackson and Kobe Bryant. If they are reasonably healthy and playing together the Lakers can put a scare into their first round adversary.
Denver (33-31) – Don’t look now, but it seems that the Nuggets are finally getting their act together, and at just the right time too. Don’t get me wrong here, their defense still leaves an awful lot to be desired, but I’m pretty confident in saying that Denver is the proverbial “team that no one wants to play” right now.
Coach George Karl has finally settled on a starting lineup and rotation. The emergence of Linas Kleiza has given the Nugs a very solid top eight players. And if you want to include specialists like Reggie Evans and Yakhouba Diawara, that makes them ten deep for the playoffs.
Depending on who they draw, it’s not hard to see Denver winning a round, but I’m anxious to see what this combustible mix looks like next season. The return of Kenyon Martin is bound to shake things up and test Furious George’s mettle. Stay tuned…
IN, BUT NOT A SERIOUS THREAT TO WIN IT ALL
East
Toronto (36-31) – If Bryan Colangelo is not best GM in the business, he’s certainly in the top five. And if he doesn’t win Executive of the Year, you can be sure the fix was in. The way he completely rebuilt this team in one off season is nothing short of stupendous. He does have two tough calls this summer though. What to do with long time Raptor Morris Peterson and how to handle coach Sam Mitchell’s expiring contract.
On the court Toronto has one of the most versatile front courts around in Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa. The Raps also possess a very solid PG rotation in T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. That alone makes them dangerous in the first round. What I worry about with T-Dot is there lack of playoff experience though. (Pardon me for not counting on Rasho Nesterovic to lead the way.) Bosh will likely have to take his game to another level for them to advance.
Chicago (39-29) – The Bulls have been playing much better as of late, but are still a flawed team in terms of how they score their points. Live by the J, die by the J is how the old adage goes. Chicago plays some serious defense (2nd overall in opponent’s field goal percentage [OPPFG%] at 43.55%), but their lack of low post scoring will be exposed in the post season.
The return of Andres Nocioni from plantar fasciitis (right foot) in early April will give the Bulls more versatility and another outside shooter. The development of rookie Tyrus Thomas has been a welcome surprise too, but neither of them have a reliable low post game. Executive Vice President John Paxson *must* address this glaring weakness in the summer time or it will be more of the same for Chicago next season.
Washington (36-28) – I’m guessing that the Gilbert Arenas for MVP contingent out there has come to their senses. The Wizards struggled big time without Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, as GA went into a major shooting slump at the same time. With Butler now expected to miss 7 to 10 days (from 3/16) with a sore left knee, Washington is going to have a hard time maintaining their Southeast Division lead.
The Wiz are another club I would deem a “regular season team”. Meaning their offensive variety is tough to prepare for in one day or less, but in a seven game series not so much. Darius Songaila’s return has given them another reliable bench player to go along with Antonio Daniels, but Washington’s overall depth still leaves a lot to be desired. The Wiz can win a round or get swept right on out, it all depends on who they play.
DARK HORSES
East
Miami (36-30) – The defending champions are hot right now and are looking like a very tough out in the post season. Dwyane Wade might be the best player on the Heat, but no way is he their most valuable. Just look at what this squad has done since Shaquille O’Neal’s return. They are 16-5 with the same group minus Jason Kapono for Eddie Jones.
Miami has flipped the switch again and must be considered the favorite to win the East with a reasonably healthy Wade back in the mix. The Heat are seventh overall in OPPFG% (44.68%), have the necessary spot up 3-point shooters around Shaq and have more then enough big game experience to get the job done.
Their defensive closing five of Gary Payton, Eddie Jones, James Posey, Udonis Haslem and Alonzo Mourning is extremely stout. With the way Miami is playing now they should end up with the third seed in the East and could be Conference Finalists *without* Wade.
Cleveland (41-25) – There can be no doubt that LeBron James was coasting for the majority of the regular season. He’s playing his best ball of the year right now and his teammates have followed suit. Coach Mike Brown moving Larry Hughes to the point and Sasha Pavlovic into the starting lineup has really paid dividends, as the Cavs are 8-0 since.
I worry about Cleveland’s depth and half court execution at crunch time, but their defense (3rd overall in OPPFG% at 44.32%) and rebounding are great. As is always the case with the Cavs, they only go as far as James takes them. Bron on a mission is enough to beat most squads in the East, but he is going to need some help to make it out of the Conference and win it all.
TRUE CONTENDERS
The formula for determining these teams is really quite simple. First you look at which clubs are above .500 on the road. Then you take those same squads and see where they rank in OPPFG%. The results are as follows…
Dallas 23-7
Phoenix 24-9
Detroit 23-10
San Antonio 24-11
Houston 19-15
Utah 18-16
1. Rockets 42.69%
4. Spurs 44.35%
5. Pistons 44.44%
8. Jazz 44.90%
9. Mavericks 45.10%
15. Suns 45.75%
East
Detroit (42-23) – There can be no doubt that the Pistons are the cream of the Eastern Conference. The addition of Chris Webber has helped their offense as much as I predicted, but C-Web hasn’t hurt Detroit’s team defense all that much.
I have to say that I’m still skeptical about Webber’s defense come playoff time though. I just have a hard time believing that the opposition won’t abuse him in pick and roll/pop situations. The Pistons lack of quality depth is another weakness that bears watching if one of their starters gets injured.
Overall, Detroit has the experience and plays the defense needed to win a Championship. Cleveland and/or Miami will give them trouble, but the Pistons should have home court advantage over both. I’m not about to count the East out of the NBA Finals either, because whoever comes out of the West will have had a much tougher road.
West
Houston (42-25) – The Rockets are finally 100% healthy (unless you consider Bonzi Wells “injured”) and rounding into form at just the right time. Their defense is stellar as always and coach Jeff Van Gundy has had them playing half court ball all season long. The one concern I have is Yao Ming.
Yao has been gradually getting his wind back, but he looks to be favoring his right leg a little too much for my liking. Any time he hits the ground he has trouble getting up. He also seems to run with a limp intermittently. Now I suppose this could be due to the bulky brace he is wearing, but something just isn’t right with him if you ask me.
Houston has the stars and the role players to win it all. It’s just a question of do they know how to play together as a group yet? I’d say they need another year before they are serious contenders for the crown. On the other hand, it wouldn’t surprise me if they beat anyone in the West outside of the Metroplex.
Utah (43-23) – The Jazz just completed an 0-4 Eastern swing and may be guilty of peaking too early. Utah is also a little thin up front and still lacks a consistent outside shooting threat, but the slower pace of the playoffs is right up their alley.
In order for the Jazz to bring home a ring Deron Williams, Derek Fisher, Gordan Giricek and Matt Harpring are going to have to collectively make 3-pointers. Carlos Boozer, Memo Okur and Paul Millsap must do the dirty work down low. Lastly, it would help if Andrei Kirilenko stopped pouting and became the defensive terror he once was.
Utah probably lacks the experience to go all the way, but I would not be surprised if they took any team in the West to seven games. Their half court execution on both ends of the floor is enough to give them at least a chance. Then throw in good defense and rebounding and they move from sleeper to contender.
San Antonio (46-20) – The wily Spurs are not to be counted out by any means. They have flown under the radar for the most part this season, but are just as dangerous as ever. It goes without saying that SA can beat anybody in seven games.
The Spurs weakness is their perimeter defense. While their overall defensive numbers are very good, that’s more a derivative of their team defense and rotations being great. Quick athletic swing players can get by SA’s first man pretty regularly. However, their half court execution on both ends is so excellent that they are able to control the tempo and somewhat mask this deficiency.
Winning on the road in the post season does not phase the Spurs one bit. What should worry them is having to play the two best teams in the NBA back-to-back without the home court *just* to get to the Finals. I don’t care what your resume says, that’s a tall order for any team.
Phoenix (50-16) – I’m well aware that the Suns are everyone’s darlings, but I have to be a detractor, even if I’m in the vast minority. Steve Nash is great, Amare Stoudemire looks to be all the way back and Leandro Barbosa is the perfect sixth man. That said, I still don’t like this squad in a seven game series against the upper echelon of the West.
The reason being that their half court defense, while better then advertised, really isn’t that great. But their depth is my biggest concern. Boris Diaw’s back does not seem to be getting any better, and without him at roughly 75% Phoenix is cooked. Kurt Thomas can step in and start for Boris, but KT has never really fit in with the Suns style.
Phoenix is going to need everything to go their way to win it all. Including but not limited to, health, a favorable first round match up and a few advantageous whistles from the referees along the way.
Dallas (54-11) – I’m not buying that the Mavericks are in a slump. They’ve been pushing themselves all season long with no let up and now they are a little bored. Can’t say that I blame them either. They’ve already clinched a playoff berth and can beat most teams just by showing up.
Dallas will not be tested again until the second round of the playoffs. Then we’ll really find out if they have another gear, which I suspect they do.
Of concern for the Mavs though are the sprained knees of both of their defensive stoppers off the bench. Devean George has been battling a sprained right knee and Greg Buckner a sprained left knee for a while now. At least one of them will be needed in the post season.
In conclusion, this year’s NBA tournament is going to define what kind of player Dirk Nowitzki is viewed as. If he is named regular season MVP and then leads his team to a ring, he’ll go down as one of the all time greats that redefined his position. If he comes up short in a few big moments though, he’s going to be lumped in with the Charles Barkley’s, Patrick Ewing’s and Kevin Garnett’s of the world. In other words, great players that just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.
Ready. Set. Go!
LOTTERY BOUND
East
Boston (20-46) – The Celtics have been playing better since Paul Pierce’s return, but they stunk so bad in the middle of the season that their “run” isn’t going to hurt their ping-pong ball total too much.
If Boston were to land a top two pick they could be playoff material faster than you think. Al Jefferson has improved his consistency and Rajon Rondo is a jump shot away from being the best PG from the 2006 class. The Celts are also well stocked with plenty of young trade assets. Couple that with PP getting antsy, and this summer is make-or-break time for Executive Director Danny Ainge.
Charlotte (24-43) – In the last month Michael Jordan has issued an “open letter to the fans” in the local paper, given two sit down interviews with the press and announced that Bernie Bickerstaff will not return as coach next season. MJ’s underlying message in all these moves has been, “We’re right on schedule with where we want to be and we will spend money.” OK. Fine. Now prove it.
It’s going to big summer for the Bobcats with Gerald Wallace likely to opt out of his contract, Emeka Okafor eligible for an extension and Matt Carroll an unrestricted free agent (three starters). With the Adam Morrison pick looking shaky at best, I hope MJ does have a plan, for his own sake.
Milwaukee (25-41) – The firing of Terry Stotts should not have surprised any of my readers. Even the timing makes sense when you consider that the University of Utah was making a play for assistant Larry Krystkowiak. Stotts was the typical “nice guy” coach, which never ever works in the NBA.
In Krystkowiak the Bucks get a no nonsense defense first coach, which is exactly what they needed if you ask me. Apparently Larry K also has a better relationship with Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva (both having underachieved this season), so that should help too.
GM Larry Harris does have to be careful not to overpay Mo Williams this off season, but with a healthy CV and Bobby Simmons in the fold, and a renewed focus on D, the Bucks should be a playoff contender next year.
Atlanta (26-41) – For the Hawks it’s as simple as getting their seemingly never ending ownership struggle resolved. Once that happens, and a new coach and GM are hired, Atlanta does have the assets to make some moves. Couple those moves (a legit PG & a defensive minded big man) with the nice young core of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia, and the Hawks are playoff contenders immediately.
Philadelphia (26-41) – Settle down 76er fans. Me saying that they are lottery bound is not a slight. In fact, Philly has played better than I ever expected they could post the Allen Iverson trade. The team plays hard for coach Maurice Cheeks every night and Andre Iguodala’s development has come along very nicely. I’m not sure what more you could ask for?
That said, don’t get too carried away with their “success”. While the Sixers defense has improved slightly, they still don’t rebound the ball and are paper thin up front. I don’t expect too much from them next year, but with two good drafts and some wise free agent signings two summers from now, they should be back in the mix for the 2008-09 season.
West
Memphis (17-50) – President Jerry West has always been an innovator, and I believe he set the model for tanking this season. See, what you do is take a coach with a proven track record (Mike Fratello) and replace him with a guy that has absolutely no business running an NBA team (Tony Barone Sr.). This way everyone thinks you’re much worse than you really are because it appears that everybody is giving their best.
Whatever the case may be, these Grizzlies annoy the hell out of me. They have no clue how to play the game, an owner that desperately wants to sell and a GM who’s contract is up after the draft. Something tells me that the NBA is not long for Memphis, but maybe a top two pick changes that.
Seattle (26-40) – For some reason I don’t think the SuperSonics are all that bad. Granted, they play no defense and can’t rebound worth a dime, but they can score with the best of them. Maybe I’m confusing entertainment with quality.
Anyway, with the franchise destined for Oklahoma City by the ’08-09 season at the latest, I’m not sure if they should blow it up now or try and maintain so the OKC faithful have something to root for upon arrival? Whichever way they decide to go the lynch pin will be Rashard Lewis. Do they resign him, sign & trade him or let him go for nothing? And who’s making that decision anyway? I guess only time will tell.
Portland (26-40) – Let me just start off with, yes the Trail Blazers really are lottery bound. I know they show promise and all, but their effort is way too inconsistent to string together the wins it would take for them to make the playoffs.
That said, I don’t think there’s a club under this heading that shows more promise than Portland. If they make zero moves this summer they should still improve next year just because Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge can only get better. Of course whoever is named the new GM (I’m pulling for Kiki Vandeweghe) is going to want to put his stamp on the team, although coach Nate McMillan’s job should be safe. I’d like to see the new guy trade both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles (yes, I believe in miracles) by using Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw as bait.
STILL HAVE A SHOT, BUT ONE AND DONE IF THEY GET IN
East
Orlando (31-37) – No squad has been more of mystery then the Magic. Since their 13-4 start they have gone 17-33. By all rights they should be better than that, but the numbers don’t lie. I’ve noticed a few problems along the way.
1) Dwight Howard is not ready to be a go-to-guy.
2) Grant Hill is too unreliable (injuries) to be counted on, and Orlando is lost without him on the floor.
3) Jameer Nelson has regressed big time.
4) Darko Milicic has talent but is lazy and somewhat of a Prima Donna.
5) Carlos Arroyo is not a good teammate.
Even with all that, I still think they should be a playoff team in the East. Coach Brian Hill has been given a vote of confidence, so I expect GM Otis Smith to be very busy this summer, possibly doing a sign & trade with both Hill and Milicic.
New York (30-36) – I’d like their chances much better if Jamal Crawford and David Lee were healthy. As is, they certainly have a shot because all the clubs in this grouping are struggling mightily. Although Eddy Curry and Stephon Marbury both seem to be running out of gas lately.
I have to say that I’ve enjoyed the drama of the Knicks all season long, but with President/coach Isiah Thomas already getting his contract extended, I’ve suddenly lost interest in them. But hey, Steve Francis is healthy again!
Indiana (30-35) – The Pacers are swirling the bowl BIG time. Recent losers of 11 in a row and 14 of 18 overall, they just seem to have no fight left in them. (Unless you count Jamaal Tinsley’s late night activities.) Jermaine O’Neal being hobbled with a left knee sprain is probably at the root of the problem, but missing Marquis Daniels with left knee tendinitis has also hurt them.
Indy was never a super-athletic team to begin with, and now they are downright pedestrian all around (with the exception of Danny Granger). CEO Donnie Walsh’s contract expires after the season, but I’d look for him to resign for at least one more year. You can be sure that The Don does not want to go out like this. I expect him to reach for the dynamite and completely overhaul this roster in the off season.
West
Minnesota (28-37) – How this team manages to hang around is beyond me. Their roster is almost devoid of talent and their depth is a joke. As proof of this I offer up new coach Randy Wittman, who is a robust 8-17 since taking over. See, sometimes it really *is* the players.
I always say this when typing about the Timberwolves, but it’s a testament to Kevin Garnett’s greatness that they are even remotely in the playoff picture. Since KG refuses to ask for a trade (he did recently drop a hint that he may opt out of his contract after next season though), here’s to hoping that Kevin McHale is replaced by Fred Hoiberg as the man calling the shots in Minne. KG deserves at least that much for his loyalty alone.
Sacramento (29-37) – The Kings are an aging over the salary cap mess of a club that doesn’t listen to their coach and has poor chemistry taboot. They are far too inconsistent to make a realistic run at the playoffs. The bigger problem is, I don’t know how you fix this team.
Who wants Mike Bibby (2 years, 28 million left on his contract), Ron Artest (2 & 16), Brad Miller (3 & 34), Kenny Thomas (3 & 24), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (3 & 19) or John Salmons (4 & 21)? Exactly. It’s going to take all of President Geoff Petrie’s brilliance to make lemonade out of those lemons.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (29-37) – I had been thinking that something was wrong with Chris Paul for a few weeks now, as he just didn’t look like himself. So news that he has a stress reaction in his left foot put me at ease, but probably killed the Hornets chances.
Peja Stojakovic is back practicing with the team, and not a moment too soon. NO/OKC is going to need his scoring if they are to make a final playoff push.
The Hornets season was derailed by injuries, but I honestly do not think they are that far away. CP3, David West and Tyson Chandler is a very nice core, and Byron Scott is an underrated coach. If GM Jeff Bower can tinker around the edges, the people of New Orleans are in for good squad next year.
Clippers (30-36) – What a difference a year makes, eh? From the NBA’s biggest surprise to one of the league’s bigger disappointments in one season. I find it ironic that as soon as Owner Donald Sterling lays out some serious coin, it backfires on him. I’m speaking mainly about Chris Kaman and coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. I have faith that Kaman can still turn things around, but Dunleavy? Not so much.
I think it’s pretty obvious that Dunleavy’s perpetual feud with Corey Maggette has undermined his voice in the locker room. The Clips have way too much talent to be this mediocre. They also play uninspired and careless way too often, and that’s a reflection on the coach. It’s funny because now that Sterling has laid out the cash, this is the team Los Angeles is stuck with. So they either right the ship internally, or go down with it together.
Golden State (32-36) – I know all the Bay Area peeps are psyched because the Warriors have been very exciting to watch when Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins have started together. That’s all well and good, but they still play no defense and don’t rebound. It’s very hard to string together a bunch of wins by outscoring the opposition.
On the other hand, I’d have to say that coach Don Nelson’s return to GS has been a success. I’m not basing that on wins and losses but more so on the premise that he’s made the Warriors relevant again. The next step from relevant to playoffs in a big one though, and it’s on Executive Vice President Chris Mullin to get the kind of players Nellie needs to make that happen.
MOST LIKELY IN, AND COULD PULL OFF AN UPSET
East
New Jersey (31-36) – With the return of Richard Jefferson the Nets are as dangerous as anyone in the East. That is, if they play defense. NJ’s offense isn’t as consistent as it used to be, but more often than not they score enough points to win. It’s their defensive effort that fluctuates wildly from night to night, but when the Nets are focused on that end, they can beat anybody.
The future of NJ hinges on what Vince Carter decides to do this summer. If he opts out of his contract, it could be rebuilding time in the swamp. However, if he decides to stick around one more year I could see President Rod Thorn giving this group another try with a healthy Nenad Krstic. As is, the Nets have enough playoff experience to give any team a tough time in the first round.
West
Lakers (35-32) – That promising squad from the ‘Mid-Season Report’ is long gone and has been replaced by a largely apathetic group that seems to be playing out the string right now. There’s no doubt that Los Angeles has been hit hard by injuries, but their problems run deeper than that.
The main thing I see with the Lakers right now is poor chemistry that emanates from two cancers. Smush Parker and Brian Cook. Both have had public run-ins with coach Phil Jackson over their minutes and touches. Smush has taken to pouting every time he gets benched and not joining team huddles unless he’s in the game. After Cook threw his warm-ups at Phil one night he has become a complete gunner that doesn’t ever look to pass the ball.
Couple that with LA’s constant lack of defensive intensity and you have a team that peaked too early and is now backing into the playoffs. That said, the opposition has to be wary of any club with Jackson and Kobe Bryant. If they are reasonably healthy and playing together the Lakers can put a scare into their first round adversary.
Denver (33-31) – Don’t look now, but it seems that the Nuggets are finally getting their act together, and at just the right time too. Don’t get me wrong here, their defense still leaves an awful lot to be desired, but I’m pretty confident in saying that Denver is the proverbial “team that no one wants to play” right now.
Coach George Karl has finally settled on a starting lineup and rotation. The emergence of Linas Kleiza has given the Nugs a very solid top eight players. And if you want to include specialists like Reggie Evans and Yakhouba Diawara, that makes them ten deep for the playoffs.
Depending on who they draw, it’s not hard to see Denver winning a round, but I’m anxious to see what this combustible mix looks like next season. The return of Kenyon Martin is bound to shake things up and test Furious George’s mettle. Stay tuned…
IN, BUT NOT A SERIOUS THREAT TO WIN IT ALL
East
Toronto (36-31) – If Bryan Colangelo is not best GM in the business, he’s certainly in the top five. And if he doesn’t win Executive of the Year, you can be sure the fix was in. The way he completely rebuilt this team in one off season is nothing short of stupendous. He does have two tough calls this summer though. What to do with long time Raptor Morris Peterson and how to handle coach Sam Mitchell’s expiring contract.
On the court Toronto has one of the most versatile front courts around in Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa. The Raps also possess a very solid PG rotation in T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. That alone makes them dangerous in the first round. What I worry about with T-Dot is there lack of playoff experience though. (Pardon me for not counting on Rasho Nesterovic to lead the way.) Bosh will likely have to take his game to another level for them to advance.
Chicago (39-29) – The Bulls have been playing much better as of late, but are still a flawed team in terms of how they score their points. Live by the J, die by the J is how the old adage goes. Chicago plays some serious defense (2nd overall in opponent’s field goal percentage [OPPFG%] at 43.55%), but their lack of low post scoring will be exposed in the post season.
The return of Andres Nocioni from plantar fasciitis (right foot) in early April will give the Bulls more versatility and another outside shooter. The development of rookie Tyrus Thomas has been a welcome surprise too, but neither of them have a reliable low post game. Executive Vice President John Paxson *must* address this glaring weakness in the summer time or it will be more of the same for Chicago next season.
Washington (36-28) – I’m guessing that the Gilbert Arenas for MVP contingent out there has come to their senses. The Wizards struggled big time without Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, as GA went into a major shooting slump at the same time. With Butler now expected to miss 7 to 10 days (from 3/16) with a sore left knee, Washington is going to have a hard time maintaining their Southeast Division lead.
The Wiz are another club I would deem a “regular season team”. Meaning their offensive variety is tough to prepare for in one day or less, but in a seven game series not so much. Darius Songaila’s return has given them another reliable bench player to go along with Antonio Daniels, but Washington’s overall depth still leaves a lot to be desired. The Wiz can win a round or get swept right on out, it all depends on who they play.
DARK HORSES
East
Miami (36-30) – The defending champions are hot right now and are looking like a very tough out in the post season. Dwyane Wade might be the best player on the Heat, but no way is he their most valuable. Just look at what this squad has done since Shaquille O’Neal’s return. They are 16-5 with the same group minus Jason Kapono for Eddie Jones.
Miami has flipped the switch again and must be considered the favorite to win the East with a reasonably healthy Wade back in the mix. The Heat are seventh overall in OPPFG% (44.68%), have the necessary spot up 3-point shooters around Shaq and have more then enough big game experience to get the job done.
Their defensive closing five of Gary Payton, Eddie Jones, James Posey, Udonis Haslem and Alonzo Mourning is extremely stout. With the way Miami is playing now they should end up with the third seed in the East and could be Conference Finalists *without* Wade.
Cleveland (41-25) – There can be no doubt that LeBron James was coasting for the majority of the regular season. He’s playing his best ball of the year right now and his teammates have followed suit. Coach Mike Brown moving Larry Hughes to the point and Sasha Pavlovic into the starting lineup has really paid dividends, as the Cavs are 8-0 since.
I worry about Cleveland’s depth and half court execution at crunch time, but their defense (3rd overall in OPPFG% at 44.32%) and rebounding are great. As is always the case with the Cavs, they only go as far as James takes them. Bron on a mission is enough to beat most squads in the East, but he is going to need some help to make it out of the Conference and win it all.
TRUE CONTENDERS
The formula for determining these teams is really quite simple. First you look at which clubs are above .500 on the road. Then you take those same squads and see where they rank in OPPFG%. The results are as follows…
Dallas 23-7
Phoenix 24-9
Detroit 23-10
San Antonio 24-11
Houston 19-15
Utah 18-16
1. Rockets 42.69%
4. Spurs 44.35%
5. Pistons 44.44%
8. Jazz 44.90%
9. Mavericks 45.10%
15. Suns 45.75%
East
Detroit (42-23) – There can be no doubt that the Pistons are the cream of the Eastern Conference. The addition of Chris Webber has helped their offense as much as I predicted, but C-Web hasn’t hurt Detroit’s team defense all that much.
I have to say that I’m still skeptical about Webber’s defense come playoff time though. I just have a hard time believing that the opposition won’t abuse him in pick and roll/pop situations. The Pistons lack of quality depth is another weakness that bears watching if one of their starters gets injured.
Overall, Detroit has the experience and plays the defense needed to win a Championship. Cleveland and/or Miami will give them trouble, but the Pistons should have home court advantage over both. I’m not about to count the East out of the NBA Finals either, because whoever comes out of the West will have had a much tougher road.
West
Houston (42-25) – The Rockets are finally 100% healthy (unless you consider Bonzi Wells “injured”) and rounding into form at just the right time. Their defense is stellar as always and coach Jeff Van Gundy has had them playing half court ball all season long. The one concern I have is Yao Ming.
Yao has been gradually getting his wind back, but he looks to be favoring his right leg a little too much for my liking. Any time he hits the ground he has trouble getting up. He also seems to run with a limp intermittently. Now I suppose this could be due to the bulky brace he is wearing, but something just isn’t right with him if you ask me.
Houston has the stars and the role players to win it all. It’s just a question of do they know how to play together as a group yet? I’d say they need another year before they are serious contenders for the crown. On the other hand, it wouldn’t surprise me if they beat anyone in the West outside of the Metroplex.
Utah (43-23) – The Jazz just completed an 0-4 Eastern swing and may be guilty of peaking too early. Utah is also a little thin up front and still lacks a consistent outside shooting threat, but the slower pace of the playoffs is right up their alley.
In order for the Jazz to bring home a ring Deron Williams, Derek Fisher, Gordan Giricek and Matt Harpring are going to have to collectively make 3-pointers. Carlos Boozer, Memo Okur and Paul Millsap must do the dirty work down low. Lastly, it would help if Andrei Kirilenko stopped pouting and became the defensive terror he once was.
Utah probably lacks the experience to go all the way, but I would not be surprised if they took any team in the West to seven games. Their half court execution on both ends of the floor is enough to give them at least a chance. Then throw in good defense and rebounding and they move from sleeper to contender.
San Antonio (46-20) – The wily Spurs are not to be counted out by any means. They have flown under the radar for the most part this season, but are just as dangerous as ever. It goes without saying that SA can beat anybody in seven games.
The Spurs weakness is their perimeter defense. While their overall defensive numbers are very good, that’s more a derivative of their team defense and rotations being great. Quick athletic swing players can get by SA’s first man pretty regularly. However, their half court execution on both ends is so excellent that they are able to control the tempo and somewhat mask this deficiency.
Winning on the road in the post season does not phase the Spurs one bit. What should worry them is having to play the two best teams in the NBA back-to-back without the home court *just* to get to the Finals. I don’t care what your resume says, that’s a tall order for any team.
Phoenix (50-16) – I’m well aware that the Suns are everyone’s darlings, but I have to be a detractor, even if I’m in the vast minority. Steve Nash is great, Amare Stoudemire looks to be all the way back and Leandro Barbosa is the perfect sixth man. That said, I still don’t like this squad in a seven game series against the upper echelon of the West.
The reason being that their half court defense, while better then advertised, really isn’t that great. But their depth is my biggest concern. Boris Diaw’s back does not seem to be getting any better, and without him at roughly 75% Phoenix is cooked. Kurt Thomas can step in and start for Boris, but KT has never really fit in with the Suns style.
Phoenix is going to need everything to go their way to win it all. Including but not limited to, health, a favorable first round match up and a few advantageous whistles from the referees along the way.
Dallas (54-11) – I’m not buying that the Mavericks are in a slump. They’ve been pushing themselves all season long with no let up and now they are a little bored. Can’t say that I blame them either. They’ve already clinched a playoff berth and can beat most teams just by showing up.
Dallas will not be tested again until the second round of the playoffs. Then we’ll really find out if they have another gear, which I suspect they do.
Of concern for the Mavs though are the sprained knees of both of their defensive stoppers off the bench. Devean George has been battling a sprained right knee and Greg Buckner a sprained left knee for a while now. At least one of them will be needed in the post season.
In conclusion, this year’s NBA tournament is going to define what kind of player Dirk Nowitzki is viewed as. If he is named regular season MVP and then leads his team to a ring, he’ll go down as one of the all time greats that redefined his position. If he comes up short in a few big moments though, he’s going to be lumped in with the Charles Barkley’s, Patrick Ewing’s and Kevin Garnett’s of the world. In other words, great players that just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.
posted by D$ at 1:44 PM
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