12.13.2008

Quarter Pole Review

I know ripping the NBA is the sport of choice for many, but even the most ardent of haters would have to admit this season has been very entertaining so far. We’ve had five trades and five coaching changes already away from the court. And we also have three teams that have separated themselves from the pack enough that late May and early June will almost certainly be exciting.

The East has replaced the West as the more balanced Conference from top to bottom. However I’m not ready to anoint the East better just yet since the top nine squads in the West would finish no lower than fourth in the East. That said there’s some serious slop in the bottom six out West, where the East really has only two clubs that are virtually eliminated as of now.

Since New Orleans finally played their 20th game on 12/14, it’s time for the 5th annual QPR.

ATLANTIC

Boston Celtics (22-2) – I’ll make no bones about it, I despise to watch this team, and it has nothing to do with their bush league antics either. I understand that you win championships with defense, but Boston is doing its best to set the NBA back to the dreadfully boring mid-90’s with their style of play. I’m sure I’ll be forced to watch them plenty in the post season, but until then I’m boycotting Beantown.

New Jersey Nets (11-11) – This group has far surpassed my expectations for few reasons. The first is Devin Harris. I knew he was good, but not 6th in the league scoring good. The next shock is that Vince Carter is actually playing hard consistently AND being a leader. Now who could have predicted that? Rookie center Brook Lopez has also been a pleasant surprise. I’m still not sold on these guys making the playoffs, but just the fact that they’ll be in contention says an awful lot about coach Lawrence Frank.

New York Knicks (11-12) – So I think it’s safe to say that Mike D’Antoni can coach…offense anyway. The Knicks are 27th in defensive field goal percentage (OPPFG%) at 47.80% and 28th in rebound differential (REBDIF) at -4.43. When you combine numbers like that with their lack of talent and Mike D’s ultra-short rotation it’s not hard to see NY winding up in the lottery again. At least they compete and are entertaining to watch for a change though.

Toronto Raptors (10-13) – I’ll have more on their coaching change in my next blog entry (NBE), but this club has really let me down. I didn’t think the Jermaine O’Neal of old would reappear this year for the Raps, but I at least thought he’d shore up their rebounding and defense. Not so much, as T-Dot is last in REBDIF (-5.40) and 20th in OPPFG% (45.78%). They still have time to turn things around, and they’ve played the second toughest schedule overall (.544 opponent’s winning percentage), but I doubt they will climb up into the East’s upper echelon either.

Philadelphia 76ers (10-14) – These guys went from the team I was most excited to watch before the season to my biggest disappointment in the entire Association. Sure, Elton Brand hasn’t quite looked like himself yet. Nor is EB surrounded by the kind of players that accentuate his skills, but there is still enough talent here to make the playoffs. Obviously I’ll have a lot more to say on the firing of coach Maurice Cheeks in my NBE (here’s a preview, he deserved it), but GM Ed Stefanski needs to make a move for some shooting pronto, even if it means parting with Andre Iguodala in some sort of blockbuster.

CENTRAL

Cleveland Cavaliers (20-4) – This is by far the best collection of talent that LeBron James has ever had around him. What makes the Cavs special though is their defense (2nd in OPPFG% at 41.98%) and rebounding (2nd in REBDEF at +5.08). With statistics like that it should be no wonder that they also sport the best point differential (+12.7) in the league too. The Eastern Conference Finals are going to be a low scoring slug fest, but I feel very confident that Bron returns to the NBA Finals this year.

Detroit Pistons (13-9) – I think it’s safe to say that all the people who used to argue with me about Allen Iverson’s “greatness” have finally seen the light (ahem, MMM). Give coach Michael Curry credit though, it only took him 15 games to figure out that AI can’t run the point. These Pistons have too much talent to miss playoffs, but not near enough chemistry to win a series against a quality opponent.

Chicago Bulls (11-12) – Rookie coach Vinny Del Negro hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been all that good either. The thing with the Bulls is they are just a poorly built squad, with duplication of players all over the roster. That’s why it’s long past time that VP John Paxson starts taking some heat. Pax has a history of botched drafts, trades and coaching hires yet he somehow still has a job. Chicago is at least a year away from serious contention for a post season spot at this point.

Milwaukee Bucks (10-15) – The Bucks have been about what I expected, middling to OK. Coach Scott Skiles makes them compete hard every night, but there are just not enough defensive minded players in Milwaukee to play the way Skiles likes. Look for Michael Redd to be made available soon Philly fans.

Indiana Pacers (7-16) – The Pacers have played the toughest schedule thus far in the NBA (.568). They’ve also lost a bunch of close games and Mike Dunleavy Jr. hasn’t played a second yet. Danny Granger has developed into a legitimate star and go-to-guy. (He’s probably my third favorite player right now behind Chris Paul & Brandon Roy.) Indy has a good mix of shooters, bangers and slashers to go along with an excellent coach in Jim O’Brien. They are a playoff caliber team as I see it, but they have also dug themselves quite a sizable hole to get out of.

SOUTHEAST

Orlando Magic (18-6) – The Magic’s start has been a little deceiving since they have played the second weakest schedule in the Association to date (.453). Dwight Howard has been a monster, but now he’s banged up with a strained oblique AND sore left knee. To me this club has to make a bold move to really contend for the title (like trading Hedo Turkoglu for a legitimate PF), but I doubt GM Otis Smith has the stones to do it.

Atlanta Hawks (14-9) – This is another group that’s been about what I expected they’d be. Their defense has been better than I thought though (9th in OPPFG% at 44.35%) and they managed to hang tough while Josh Smith missed 12 games. But I just don’t see how they can compete with the big boys come playoff time. That said, these Hawks truly believe they can beat Boston in a 7-game series.

Miami Heat (12-11) – My one miscalculation with Miami was rookie coach Erik Spoelstra; he actually does know what he’s doing. After that I’m still not sold on the Heat for two reasons. For starters they have played the easiest schedule so far (.452). Next, if Dwyane Wade misses any time at all they are dead. I’m not trying to be over the top when I say that Miami will lose every game he does not play in. Seriously, he’s that important to them, and I’m not willing to bet on Wade staying healthy all season.

Charlotte Bobcats (7-17) – Ah, where to begin. Coach Larry Brown is doing what LB does trading his best player and leading scorer for two role players. (More on that in the NBE.) This franchise is a mess, and honestly I don’t see it getting better any time soon. They are third to last in attendance, have a cheap owner, an absentee GM and a senile coach. But hey, at least they “play the right way.”

Washington Wizards (4-17) – I’m not sure what, or if, I was thinking when I picked them to make the playoffs in the pre-season. They have been playing with better effort and intensity under interim coach Ed Tapscott, but they just don’t defend (last in OPPFG% at 48.24%) or rebound (24th in REBDIF at -2.52) at all. The return of Gilbert Arenas (left knee) won’t make any difference, and truth be told the Wiz probably miss Brendan Haywood (right wrist) more than Gil anyway.

SOUTHWEST

San Antonio Spurs (15-8) – They weathered the storm without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker and are looking like their old selves again. The Spurs are just as good as ever, but their problem is the rest of the West is getting better while they are getting older. They will be a tough out in the post season for sure and still have a decent shot at representing the West in the NBA Finals.

New Orleans Hornets (13-7) – After the Sixers and Raptors the Hornets have to be next biggest disappointment to me. They’ve been healthy for the most part and have played the least total games of anyone but have not taken advantage. There are rumblings out of the Crescent City that the players have tuned out coach Byron Scott. I’m a little surprised by that, but I guess I shouldn’t be since that’s supposedly what happen to B Scott in New Jersey. NO is a dangerous club, but not a serious contender.

Houston Rockets (15-9) – They have yet to be 100% healthy and probably won’t be all season long. The thing is I factored that into my prediction back in October. The Rockets are so deep that they can do without any two of their top players for extended periods of time and still be OK. The likelihood of them winning the division goes down the more player games they miss, but if they are anywhere near 100% healthy for the start of the playoffs, look out.

Dallas Mavericks (13-9) – All hail J.J. Barea! With Josh Howard out indefinitely (left ankle) coach Rick Carlisle has gone mainly to a three guard lineup of Barea, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. It has worked like a charm helping lift the Mavs from their awful 2-7 start. This is yet another very tough Western squad that I think we haven’t seen the best of yet.

Memphis Grizzlies (9-15) – With coach Mark Iavaroni’s job rumored to be on the line the Griz have won four in a row and five out of six. I have to admit it’s refreshing to see a team rally behind their coach like that, but unfortunately I don’t think Iavaroni is all that good at his job. Of course Memphis is dead last in attendance, so if they don’t care neither do I.

NORTHWEST

Denver Nuggets (16-7) – Ah, what a difference having a real PG to run the show can make, eh? The Nugs are 15-4 since Chauncey Billups’ arrival with the four losses being against Cleveland, the Lakers, New Orleans and San Antonio. They are one role playing big man away from being serious contenders, which makes the buyout of Antonio McDyess all the more strange. Why they didn’t just suspend him without pay for not reporting is beyond me. Even an unhappy Dyess would have helped them out tremendously.

Utah Jazz (15-10) – Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Memo Okur have yet to all be healthy for a game together at the same time. Taking that into consideration the Jazz have been about as good as you could expect thus far. Andrei Kirilenko has embraced his role as 6th man and this is a very deep squad when healthy. We haven’t even come close to seeing Utah’s best yet.

Portland Trail Blazers (15-10) – The Blazers have played an astounding 16 road games so far, which easily leads the league. Then you factor in their youth and that starting SF Martell Webster (left foot) has played five minutes total, and you’ve got to be happy if you’re a Portland fan. The Blazers are very tough at home and figure to get better as the season progresses. Now if I could only see their games on TV…

Minnesota Timberwolves (4-19) – VP Kevin McHale was given the Isiah Thomas treatment by owner Glen Taylor; as in “You put this mess together upstairs, now go make it work on the sidelines.” (More in my NBE.) I think we all know how this ends, but with Taylor in charge I guess you never ever know.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2-23) – The good news is I think coach Scott Brooks is acquitting himself well in first coaching gig. The bad news is this team is pathetic. The lone bright spot, and only reason to watch this mess, is rookie PG Russell Westbrook. Other than that, they are an abomination to the eyes.

PACIFIC

Los Angeles Lakers (20-3) – I’d really hate it if the Lakers defense peaked after seven games. As of right now though, it certainly looks that way. Coach Phil Jackson really has his work cut out for him getting these guys to care about both ends of the floor since on most nights they can coast and outscore their opponent. Phil’s first change was to insert the fumbling, bumbling, unathletic Luke Walton into the starting lineup replacing Vladimir Radmanovic at SF. Never mind that Vlad wasn’t the problem to begin with, but more importantly whatever the problem is, WALTON IS NOT THE ANSWER!

Phoenix Suns (14-10) – Amar’e Stoudemire has complained loudly, Shaquille O’Neal subtly and Steve Nash quietly. Basically the Suns were in disarray and sinking quickly. So give GM Steve Kerr credit for pulling off the second biggest heist of the season in acquiring Jason Richardson for peanuts. (More in my NBE.) A starting five of Nash, J-Rich, Grant Hill, Amar’e and Shaq looks very good on paper. Now will they defend anyone? No, but I think it’s safe to say the fun, entertaining version of Phoenix is back.

Golden State Warriors (7-17) – President Robert Rowell has led a successful coup against VP Chris Mullin usurping his power to implement all the bad ideas owner Chris Cohan comes up with. The worst part about that is coach Don Nelson assisted Rowell in undermining Mullin to Cohan. What a skunk Nellie is for that one. On the court the Warriors are a bunch of gunners out for their numbers and Andris Biedrins.

Los Angeles Clippers (6-17) – It’s pretty hard to believe that Mike Dunleavy Sr. is the only guy in the entire NBA that is currently both coach and GM. (Kevin McHale was relieved of his GM duties when took over as coach.) I mean, Mike Dunleavy? Anyway, the Clips are way out of it already, but this is a unit that will be playing spoiler all year long. Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Marcus Camby and Al Thornton make LA’s other team very streaky, but also very capable on any given night.

Sacramento Kings (6-18) – The Kings might not be half bad if Kevin Martin’s left ankle ever heals. President Geoff Petrie has quietly done a very nice job finding guys that can play with mid-to-low first round picks. Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes and Francisco Garcia will all be NBA contributors for a long time. You put those three together with KM2 and Sacto is a few years and a legitimate PG away from being back in the thick of things.

Quarter Pole Awards

Defensive Player – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Sixth Man – Jason Terry (Dallas)

Coach – Mike Brown (Cleveland)

Rookie – Derrick Rose (Chicago)

MVP – LeBron James (Cleveland)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (New Orleans)
SG – Dwyane Wade (Miami)
SF – LeBron James (Cleveland)
PF – Chris Bosh (Toronto)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)