Conference Finals

Going 4-0 on my predictions in the second round is more like it and runs my playoff record to a semi-respectable 9-3.  I still have three more wins to get but this is as good of a time as any to mention that I had five of the final eight and two of the final four teams correct back in October. 

EAST 

Indiana at Miami – In the regular season the Pacers were not only the best defensive unit (42% opponent shooting) but they were also the best squad at defending the three (32.7% opponent 3-point shooting).  This is important because the Heat were the best shooting side (49.6%) and second best 3-point shooting club (39.6%).  One major statistical difference between these two teams is rebounding, where Indy was the best in the league (+5) and Miami tied for 20^th (-1.5). 

As far as individual matchups go the Pacers have Paul George to defend LeBron James, and while no one can stop James, George has both the length and athleticism to hang with LeBron.  Bron’s biggest advantage over Paul is on the low block, but since George just hung with Carmelo Anthony down there his disadvantage might not be that pronounced.  Dwyane Wade’s right knee apparently has three different bone bruises inside it and he has quite obviously not been himself which gives Lance Stephenson a better than average shot to limit Wade’s effectiveness. 

The one disadvantage I see for Indy is who defends Chris Bosh?  If Bosh’s head is in the game and he’s not wearing a skirt he’s too long for David West to handle in the low post.  If Pacers Coach Frank Vogel moves Roy Hibbert on to Chris then Bosh will undoubtedly draw Roy away from the paint and use his superior mobility to get Hibbert into foul trouble.  Another negative for Indy is if Roy isn’t planted in the paint their defensive structure will fall apart. 

The Pacers are equipped to beat the Heat since they defend the three, rebound and pound the ball inside but Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra just has more depth and ways to play at his disposal.  I probably give Indy a better chance than most here; in fact I would not be shocked if they pulled the upset, especially if Wade can’t produce at his normal levels.  That said the Pacers go through scoring droughts every game and the Heat excel at putting big runs on their opposition.  Miami in 6. 

WEST 

Memphis at San Antonio – This series features several big time matchups so we’ll start at the top with Tony Parker versus Mike Conley.  Parker didn’t look like himself after hurting his left calf in the last series whereas Conley is really coming into his own right now.  Mike is a better defender so straight up against a less than 100% Tony it’s advantage Conley.  But I expect to see a lot of Danny Green and some of Kawhi Leonard on Mike and some each of Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter on Parker.  

Next up we have Manu Ginobili versus Allen and with how old Manu has looked recently I have no doubt that Tony can control Ginobili’s contributions.  The big men are where it gets really interesting though pitting Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter against Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  On paper they look very evenly matched size wise but Duncan noticeably slowed down over the course of the last series after banging with Andrew Bogut every game.  Splitter’s defense will be a big key to the Spurs chances because I don’t think Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw or DeJuan Blair can guard Z-Bo or Marc effectively, much less rebound with them. 

I expect these games to be ugly slow it down and pound the ball inside affairs.  So if the refs call it closely the advantage swings to SA because they have more quality depth and Coach Gregg Popovich has more versatility in the ways he can coach, although I have my doubts that “small ball” will be effective against the Grizzlies.  Another advantage for the Spurs is their superior 3-point shooting but I think Memphis can defend Parker, Ginobili and Duncan one-on-one limiting the open looks for SA’s role players.  This series could obviously go either way but something tells me the Griz are this year’s team of destiny.  Memphis in 6.

Second Round

A 5-3 record in the first round is about as bad as it gets for me and I need to go undefeated the rest of the way to salvage an acceptable playoff record.  Blake Griffin’s high right ankle sprain definitely did the Clippers in and Joe Johnson’s left foot plantar fasciitis certainly didn’t help Brooklyn as JJ shot 2-14 (1-9 from 3) in Game 7.  Kudos to Joakim Noah (plantar fasciitis right foot) and rest of the healthy Bulls for gutting it out and to the Warriors for overcoming David Lee’s torn right hip flexor to win their respective series’, which I didn’t think either could.  

EAST 

Indiana at New York – For the Knicks the major concern has to be Carmelo Anthony’s left shoulder which he felt popping in and out over the last two games of the first round.  Then there is the possibility of Amar’e Stoudemire (right knee) playing in Game 3; given that Amar’e hasn’t played since 3/7 his return might hurt more than it helps.  Sharpshooter Steve Novak (back) is also out for Game 1 (at least) and Tyson Chandler (neck) didn’t look quite right in round one either.  As far as individual matchups go the Pacers have George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George to defend NY’s three best players in Raymond Felton. J.R. Smith and Anthony respectively.  Indy is bigger down low so you can expect Coach Mike Woodson to have the Knicks playing small a lot and relying on their 3-point shooting to carry them.  The Pacers play better defense and are the superior rebounding side and I’d feel very confident about my pick if they weren’t so darn awful on the road.  As is NY will probably have one off night from deep at the Garden and that will decide the series.  Indiana in 6. 

Chicago at Miami – In addition to Noah’s right foot, Kirk Hinrich has a bad left calf; Luol Deng needed a blood patch to fix complications from a spinal tap and now comes word from Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski that Derrick Rose (left ACL surgery on 5/12/12) has ruled himself out for the playoffs.  Other than that things are looking peachy for the Bulls.  For example the Heat will have had a full seven days off by Monday’s tip where Chicago had to fly directly from Brooklyn to Miami after their Game 7 so they could get one day off.  Wait, what?  When it comes to the Heat Dwyane Wade’s right knee issue bears monitoring but other than that I don’t see them having much trouble even though the Bulls always play them tough.  Miami in 4. 

WEST 

Memphis at Oklahoma City – Not having Russell Westbrook (lateral meniscus tear right knee) changes everything for the Thunder.  Kevin Durant is forced to do way too much on offense (scoring & creating), Kevin Martin can’t have nights where he disappears and Derek Fisher has to play regular minutes at backup PG.  The good news for OKC is that Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison should be able to defend Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol about as well as can be expected.  For the Grizzlies I like the bodies they can rotate on Durant in Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter.  I also expect Allen to completely shut down and frustrate Martin whenever Kevin checks in.  Assuming they can keep the Memphis front court in check the key for the Thunder will be Thabo Sefolosha and Reggie Jackson slowing down Mike Conley’s penetration.  Other than Z-Bo’s left ankle the Griz have no health issues to speak of and I also trust Lionel Hollins more than Scott Brooks when it comes to coaching at this point.  Memphis in 6.    

Golden State at San Antonio – Lee is going to try and play with his torn right hip flexor but I doubt he’ll be effective on any level.  Everyone is raving about Andrew Bogut’s Game 6 performance (14 points, 21 rebounds, 4 blocks & 3 assists) but no one mentioned that he needed a painkilling injection in his left ankle just to be able to play.  Likewise for Stephen Curry who took two separate painkilling injections in his left ankle during the last series.  For the Spurs Tiago Splitter (left ankle) should be available early in the series and Boris Diaw (back) is ready to play again for the first time since 4/6.  SA will have had seven full days as opposed to three for the Warriors.  With Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili rounding into form I’m not sure what GS can really do here since Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich can match any small lineup that Mark Jackson sends out there.  This will definitely be a fun one to watch but in the end I’ll take SA’s experience and health.  Spurs in 5.