Sunday 4/29

Lakers v Phoenix (Suns up 3-1) – Los Angeles and Kobe Bryant put up a valiant effort but they just don’t have the fire power to hang with Phoenix in the end. One win was nice to save face for my boys, but I’m not sure I’m happy with their season. I know they had injuries but this club doesn’t get along and Phil Jackson did not do enough to improve their defense. The Lakers are capped out and in need of a facelift…not a great combination. GM Mitch Kupchak has some work do so he doesn’t end up wasting the next four years of Kobe’s prime.

As for the Suns, I haven’t been overly impressed with them yet. I mean LA is 5-11 in their last 16 games and hasn’t resembled anything close to a decent squad in months. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire look great but I still have questions about what Phoenix can do in a half-court dominated game.

New Jersey v Toronto (Nets up 3-1) – I’ve got to say I’m a little disappointed in the Raptors. I was willing to give them a pass for Game 3, but when they gave the same type of effort in Game 4, now I have a problem. Toronto was outscored 63-34 in the 1st quarters combined in NJ. That’s flat out not being ready to play, and totally inexcusable at this time of the year. You need look no further then the Raps best player to place further blame. Chris Bosh shot 8-22 (36.4%) and scored 24 points in the swamplands as opposed to the 47 points on 17-36 (47.2%) he put up in T-Dot. Chris, great players in this league perform on the road in the playoffs. It’s just that simple.

The Nets post season experience has been huge, as Jason Kidd and company have shown they can switch it into a higher gear defensively when they need to. For the record: Vince Carter was 24-38 (63.2%) from the field, 7-12 (58.3%) from three with 64 points at home. On the road VC was 13-43 (30.2%), 2-10 (20%) with 35 points. What I said about Bosh goes double for Carter.

I think back to the day I typed about NJ-Toronto & Miami-Chicago and wonder if I would have made the right decisions if I’d had more than 9 hours of sleep combined in the previous two days. I just wasn’t thinking clearly that night and writing about these two series was a major struggle. C’est la vie I guess.

Golden State v Dallas (Warriors up 3-1) – “WOW!” Is all I can really say about this one. My disappointment at missing those two series I just mentioned is tempered by the fact that this one is looking like a loss too. While 7-1 looks better than 5-3, neither is undefeated, so the streak would have been over regardless.

I don’t know what to say about this one other than the Mavericks have been thoroughly out played thus far. It’s amazing that GS seems to want it more and that the Warriors are able to make more big plays when they matter most. Dirk Nowitzki is taking a lot of heat, and rightfully so, but his numbers are practically identical to his regular season averages. He’s averaged 20 points thus far in the playoffs compared to 24.6 ppg in the regular season. His assists (3.4 to 2.3 apg), overall shooting (50.2% to 40.9%) free throw shooting (90.4% to 77.4%) and 3-point shooting (20% to 41.6%) are also down. But his rebounding (8.9 to 11.5 rpg), blocks (.8 to 1.8 bpg) and steals (.67 to 2.5 spg) are up. I suppose it’s fair to rip into Nowitzki, but when you look at the numbers further, Josh Howard (18.9 to 21.3 ppg) and Jason Terry (16.7 to 19.5 ppg) have actually made up for Dirk’s scoring dip.

I think coaching has been the determining factor in this series, although Baron Davis averaging 30 points and 58.2% shooting in GS’s three wins has helped quite a bit also. The Warriors’ Don Nelson has coached circles around Dallas’ Avery Johnson. I don’t know if it’s a mentor versus pupil thing or what, but Nellie has consistently been a step ahead in outfoxing Avery at every turn. Can the Mavs win three in a row? Sure, but at this point it seems highly unlikely. Winning Game 5 in Dallas and putting the pressure on GS to close out at home in Game 6 is all the Mavs can hope for at the moment.

Saturday 4/28

Washington v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 3-0) – LeBron James and his ‘mates haven’t been super spectacular in any game thus far, but you have to give them credit for taking care of business. The Wizards gave them their best shot in Game 3 and Cleveland still made it look rather easy. I have to admit that I’ll be impressed if the Cavs are able to complete their first sweep as a unit on Monday earning themselves some precious rest.

The one major thing to take away from this series for Cleveland has been the play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Big Z has come to life in the post season averaging 18.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.33 blocks while shooting 61.8% from the field and 82.4% from the line. All those numbers are up from his regular season averages of 11.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.26 bpg, 48.5% & 80.7%. This gives the Cavs a legit third (maybe second) option and possibly the best low post presence remaining in the East as they move forward. Bron and coach Mike Brown both have to be smiling about that.

Denver v San Antonio (Spurs up 2-1) – Even though the Nuggets have a chance to tie the series up on Monday, I get the feeling that SA has taken control for good. Denver isn’t fracturing apart like I thought they might, but they also have not displayed the ability to play smart enough to close out games against a club that executes like the Spurs do. Robert Horry filled the inside production void along side Tim Duncan in Game 3. “Big Shot Bob” had 10 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals, assists & daggers. Love him or hate him, Horry does have that knack to make back breaking shots, even on nights when he looks terrible.

Allen Iverson is up to his old tricks shooting 40.3% in the series while averaging 22.3 shot attempts per game. He’s also committing 3.3 turnovers a night while handing out only 4.7 assists (a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio). Nothing like a low percentage gunner! Carmelo Anthony is shooting 46.7% overall, but he too is averaging 20 shots and 3 turnovers per game while sporting a 3 to 1 turnover to assist ratio. As good as they can look at times, I still have questions about how two guys that like to fire away and don’t make their teammates better can coexist over 82 games.

Utah v Houston (tied 2-2) – The Jazz really took it to the Rockets in Salt Lake, and people wonder why home court advantage is so important in the NBA. Anyway, it looks Utah’s superior depth is rising to the surface as this series’ deciding factor. The always solid Matt Harpring has been joined by Gordan Giricek, Paul Millsap and Jarron Collins. While Houston coach Jeff Van Gundy only seems to trust Juwan Howard and Luther Head.

As the series switches back to Toyota Center the pressure is squarely on the “other” Rockets to step up and perform. Whether it be Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, Howard or Head, somebody has got to support Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. I suspect playing at home will give those four “others” more confidence to get the job done, just like it did for the Jazz role players in Utah. Overall I still this series going the full seven, with T-Mac’s greatness carrying the day when the chips are down.

Friday 4/27

New Jersey v Toronto (Nets up 2-1) – The story here is that Jason Kidd had a game for the ages. Kidd went for 16 points on 7-14 shooting, 19 assists (career playoff high), 16 rebounds and 3 steals. Oh yeah, and Jason did this all on a sprained left knee that forced him to miss practice a day earlier. J-Kidd is now averaging a triple-double for the series with 12.7 ppg, 13.7 apg and 12.3 rpg. Not bad. Vince Carter also enjoyed his return to the swamps (literally) of NJ. Carter managed to shoot above 33% from the field for the first time all series going 15-23 while putting up 37 points. But those hostile Canadians didn’t bother him…right.

For the Raptors, Chris Bosh and Anthony Parker both shot 3-10 from the field after posting 47.2% and 52% respectively in Toronto. Even with their two best players having off nights the Raps weren’t blown out. Remember that this was their first post season road game together too. Bosh and company now know that their intensity needs to be ratcheted up a notch or two away from home in the playoffs. I’m not ready to write T-Dot off just yet, but they *need* to win Game 4 to have any chance to advance.

Miami v Chicago (Bulls up 3-0) – Ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha! I soooo love this. I don’t even care that I’m losing one of my pre-season Finals picks or that my undefeated first round streak is coming to an end. To me the loss of credibility is worth seeing Shaquille O’Neal go down in flames. It doesn’t seem like you can turn it on in March and carry your team through the post season anymore, does it Big Fella? To quote Nelson from The Simpsons, “ha-HA!”

A few quick historical notes for ya: No team in NBA history has come back from 0-3 down to win a series, and trust me, the Heat won’t be the first. Miami is also the first defending champion to lose their first three playoff games the following year. LOVE IT!

If the Heat want to blame anybody for their 8 point loss they need look no further then The Diesel and Dwyane Wade. Shaq shot 3-12 from the free throw line and D-Wade 4-10. That’s 15 points right there. It goes deeper than that though. Miami has been outscored 78 to 67 combined in the 4th quarter while letting Chicago shoot 48.9% as a team for the series.

I think this quote from the Bulls Ben Wallace after Game 3 sums it up nicely. “We're outplaying them right now, outworking them and playing harder. I think we want it more than they want it.” No doubt about it. Big Ben isn’t even afraid of giving the Heat bulletin board material. So much for championship mystique.

Golden State v Dallas (Warriors up 2-1) – I thought this at the time, so I’m going to type it now. The Mavericks should have played to win their game in GS on 4/17. It was the second to last game of the season and Dallas had just played all their regulars the game prior to beat San Antonio. So what does Mavs coach Avery Johnson do? He starts a rookie back court of J.J. Barea & Maurice Ager with defensive specialists Greg Buckner & Devean George at the forwards and DeSagana Diop in the middle. Dallas went on to lose by 29. I didn’t get it then, and I still don’t get it now. It was important to send a message to a *possible* Conference Final opponent, but not to your potential first round match up? Forget that the Mavs may have eliminated the Warriors from the post season all together by winning that game. Even more inexplicable was Avery going back to his normal rotation the next day for the last game of the season against hapless Seattle.

GS is shooting 46.2% from the field for the series, which is right on their season average of 46.3%. Dallas, on the other hand, is shooting 40.7% currently which is down from their 46.7% season average. Here’s the thing, the Mavs were 7th overall in the league in opponents shooting percentage at 44.7%. While the Warriors were 19th 46.16%. So did GS suddenly become a defensive juggernaut? Not quite. To me it looks like the Mavs are feeling the pressure of being the #1 overall seed and are choking it up big time. Frustration is setting in too as evidenced by Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse and Devin Harris all getting technical fouls in the 3rd quarter of Game 3.

As bad as it looks for Dallas, and it does look pretty bad, I think they are still in it. The Bay Area peeps had Oracle Arena rockin’ off its hinges in the first NBA playoff game in Oakland since 5/4/94. Now that the Mavs know what they are in for there, I think they will come out and play their best game of the series in Game 4. As such, I’m not wavering from Mavs in 6…yet.

Thursday 4/26

Orlando v Detroit (Pistons up 3-0) – It’s broom time in the Magic Kingdom. I’ll give you one stat before moving on. Detroit has made as many 3-pointers (21-46, 45.7%) as Orlando has attempted (8-21, 38.1%). It’s tough to win with a disparity like that. If the Pistons can win Saturday afternoon it will be their first sweep since 1990 when the dispatched Indiana in three games.

Utah v Houston (Rockets up 2-1) – I know for the casual fan this series has to be brutal to watch, and for that I apologize. Yet for the hardcore among us this is a very interesting series to watch unfold. Mainly because of the coaching match up, but it goes deeper than x’s & o’s. These two clubs approach the game in practically identical ways and it’s making for some interesting ball in my opinion.

In Game 3 it was like the teams switched energy. The Jazz made all the big plays when they counted, just like Houston did in the first two games. Utah’s bench came to play with Gordan Giricek putting up 10 points & 3 rebounds to go along with rookie Paul Millsap’s 9 points & 4 rebounds. On the other hand the Rockets subs contributed 0 points & 6 rebounds TOTAL. To make matter worse for Houston they only had FOUR players score the entire night (a post season first).

My boy Andrei Kirilenko has taken a lot of heat this post season, and rightfully so. (He *did* show flashes of his old energy & presence in Game 3 though, even if the numbers might not show it.) But I’m wondering how Memo Okur is getting a free pass when he has clearly stunk up the joint? Okur is averaging 5.7 points while shooting 6-35 from the field (17.1%) and 2-15 from three (13.3%). Compare that to his season averages of 17.6 ppg, 46.2% and 38.4%. Keep in mind that he was the second leading scorer on the Jazz too. (Full disclosure: Memo has upped his blocks from .48 to 2.7 bpg and his steals from .45 to 2.3 spg, so he *is* playing solid defense on Yao Ming.) I’m just saying that compared to AK’s drop from 8.3 to 1.3 ppg Okur’s fall off is much more egregious.

Lakers v Phoenix (Suns up 2-1) – Do you believe in miracles?!?! I sure do, well at least in this case anyway. Los Angeles battled back from being down 11-0 to start the game and 31-17 at the end of the 1st quarter to manage an improbable victory. The Lakers did it by getting big contributions from multiple guys and…gulp…actually playing like a team for a change. Lamar Odom was huge with 18 points and 16 rebounds, and of course Kobe Bryant was masterful as always (45 points, 15-26 FG, 13-13 FT, 6 assists & rebounds), but it was the performance of Kwame Brown that really tilted the scale in favor of LA. (Yes I’m being serious.) The much maligned Brown tallied 19 points (playoff high) on 8-14 shooting to go along with 6 rebounds (4 offensive) and 2 blocks. But it was his intestinal fortitude after spraining his good (right) ankle that was most impressive. I’ve typed it many times, but the Lakers *need* Kwame’s interior defense to have any chance.

Credit must also be dolled out heavily to LA coach Phil Jackson. Other than motivation and team building, the Zen Master’s best coaching quality is game-to-game adjustments in the playoffs. And he made some very big ones for Game 3. The most important was switching all pick & rolls accompanied by intermittent trapping of Steve Nash off said pick & rolls. This clearly threw Phoenix off their game and disrupted Nash’s rhythm. Phil’s next stroke of brilliance was dusting off Shammond Williams & Smush Parker for defensive purposes. The S & S boys did a very fine job containing the difficult duo of Nash & Leandro Barbosa.

As excited as I am about this win, I’m also realistic. The Lakers are done if they lose Game 4. So it’s up to Suns coach Mike D’Antoni to adjust now, which I’m pretty certain isn’t his strong suit. Remember too, as I’ve typed before, that Phoenix was just 11-6 over the final month of the season, and both D’Antoni & Nash hinted at chemistry issues as the reason why. If this series heads back to US Airways Center tied up you can be sure that the Suns will be feeling the majority of the pressure.

Wednesday 4/25

> I have to start out today with a disclaimer. If any of you out there ever consider investing in satellite internet, I have one word for you: DON’T. My whole home computer was slowed to the pace of drunken turtle carrying a 100-pound weight last night. As such, my analysis may not be as in depth this morning as you are used to.

Denver v San Antonio (tied 1-1) – After shooting 11-22 and 10-18 respectively in Game 1, Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony returned to their normal ways last night going 9-25 and 8-21 respectively while the Spurs regained control of this series in their typical unspectacular way. Tim Duncan rebounded from a poor performance and everything is once again okay on the River Walk. Although, Nene Hilario muscling Tim on the ball and Marcus Camby helping from the weak side does present Duncan with some problems. That’s why Fabricio Oberto’s 8 points and 10 rebounds were so important in Game 2. Someone has got to support Tim down low whether it be Oberto, Francisco Elson or Robert Horry.

As we’ve seen thus far in the playoffs, it’s much easier to play when the pressure is on the other squad. So with the pressure squarely being on the Nuggets now, this is what I’ve been waiting to see. Will Denver come together at home or fracture apart when the going gets tough? And trust me, SA is going to come out focused and ready to dismantle the Nugs right from the start of Game 3. If Denver can hang in and withstand that, then we may have a series on our hands after all.

Washington v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 2-0) – I don’t really know what to say about this series other than it only lasts as long as Cleveland allows it to last. Really though, this match up reminds me of two other series’ we have going on right now. Much like Detroit the Cavs are obviously coasting, and just like Phoenix you can’t be too impressed with Cleveland’s play thus far because the Wizards are atrocious.

The Cavs would be wise to take care of business, sweep Washington, get some rest for LeBron James’ left ankle and then practice hard for the next round. Because let me tell you that either Toronto or New Jersey, both of which will be in full on post season mode, will give Cleveland a much tougher time in the next round.

Golden State v Dallas (tied 1-1) – The Mavericks were able to overcome their inexplicable shakiness and tie this series up…with a little help from the Warriors of course. After being the toast of the league just one game ago, Baron Davis reverted to his career norm of a super talented guy that just can’t keep it together. His ejection at the end of the 3rd quarter pretty much sealed GS’s fate. Now that’s a team leader! My favorite part was BD standing next to coach Don Nelson while showing up official Bennett Salvatore (by clapping facetiously) and Nellie saying “Don’t do that” right before Davis got his second technical foul. As for Stephen Jackson, nothing this maniac does surprises me. Given Jack’s track record it would not shock me at all to see him suspended for Game 3 either (for failure to leave the court in a timely manner).

I found it interesting that Mavs coach Avery Johnson went back to his normal starting lineup with Erick Dampier at center. I mean, Avery basically admitted he made a mistake in Game 1. It makes sense though when you consider that Dallas has out rebounded the Warriors 91-79 so far overall and 31-22 on the offensive glass. I think it’s smart to play Nellie’s game right back at him. I never get why more coaches don’t do this? You go small, I go big, and we’ll see who’s players are better.

Anyway, I don’t hold out much hope for GS making a series of this, even though the Oakland crowd is sure to be the loudest bunch of the playoffs. The Warriors whole we’re-not-supposed-to-be-here-no-one-gives-us-a-chance mantra is bound to change now that they *need* to win at home. The Mavs were the best road team in the NBA this season (31-10) and should play much looser with a win under their collective belts against their nemesis.

Tuesday 4/24

New Jersey v Toronto (tied 1-1) – We have a full blown series on our hands here after a huge win by the Raptors . Chris Bosh has stepped up and shown that he is indeed ready for the big time. The Nets have no one that can contain Bosh, and it shows in his averages of 23.5 points, 9 rebounds and 47.2% shooting. Mikki Moore & Jason Collins are too slow and everyone else is too small. It may be time for NJ coach Lawrence Frank to turn to “Uncle Cliffy" Robinson or rookie Josh Boone because nothing else is working.

Vince Carter has been bricking away thus far at 30.2% from the field and 20% from three. But the crowd doesn't bother him…..right. He’s got to be the softest “star” in the NBA right now.

Anyway, I see this one going the full seven now for a few reasons. First, the Nets have been inconsistent at home all season and neither Games 3 nor 4 is sold out yet. Next, Toronto gained a big boost of confidence by getting their first playoff win together. What this means is the Raps can now play looser because the pressure is squarely on NJ to hold serve. Add it all up and I see another split on the horizon.

I just have to mention what a professional Morris Peterson is. He lost his spot in the rotation early in season to a left elbow injury, but never complained publicly. After that he was used only sporadically, which is something NBA players despise. Yet not a peep. Then, after logging only 7 minutes in Game 1, he plays a huge 31 in Game 2 and goes 2-3 from deep while playing solid defense. This guy will be rewarded by some franchise for making lemonade out of lemons in his contract year.

Miami v Chicago (Bulls up 2-0) – The Heat remind me of an aging athlete. You can tell the mind is still willing, but the body is just not able anymore. Chicago is quicker to the ball on almost every play, but what’s really shocking is that the Bulls are performing with so much more confidence than Miami is. What’s more, I’m so sick and tired of the Heat and their “We’ve been here before, we’ll be OK” attitude. How many times do I have to hear that same poppycock? Just shut up and play hard for once!

Luol Deng has been the breakout performer of the post season thus far. Lu has shown me everything I wanted to see and then some. His combination of size, skill, athleticism, length and basketball IQ is something to behold at 22 years old. Deng is shooting a robust 56.8% from the field on his way to averaging 29.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4 assists. Oh yeah, and he’s also a good defender. Miami is going to need to find an answer for him starting in Game 3.

I know the old adage is that a series doesn’t start until someone loses on their home court, but c’mon already. I have a very hard time seeing the Heat beating this Chicago squad twice in a row. I suppose it could happen, but at this point I’d put better odds on a sweep than a 2-2 tie.

(Did anyone notice the job Swiss rookie Thabo Sefolosha did guarding Dwyane Wade in Game 1? If only someone could have tipped you off about him…)

Lakers v Phoenix (Suns up 2-0) – Must I really analyze this mess? If you don’t already know, Los Angeles is my favorite team and I freely admit that they have ZERO chance in this series. Also you can take that Game 3 victory I predicted, roll it up, and smoke it. In other words, break out the brooms. This is such an embarrassment that I’m actually mad at the Clippers for choking down the stretch. Oh how I wish my Lakers were in the lottery, even if it only gave them a .05% chance at the #1 pick. Hey, that’s better than 0.0 Mr. Blutarsky.

Monday 4/23

Orlando v Detroit (Pistons up 2-0) – This series is playing out exactly as I thought it would. Even though Detroit’s winning margin has been only 8 points each night, neither game was ever in doubt.

Looking at the numbers the Magic have been shooting the ball better from the field at a 52% to 45% clip. How are they losing then? The Pistons have the edge at the free throw line 77% to 57%. There’s your series in a nutshell.

For Orlando to have any chance to steal a game at home coach Brian Hill has to play Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic together in the “twin towers” alignment a whole lot more. When those two are on the court together they flat out dominate the Detroit front line. It’s scary what the D & D boys *could* become in a few years.

What happened to Jameer Nelson? After seeing his regular season numbers drop in points, assists, steals, field goal shooting and 3-point shooting from a year ago, he continues to disappoint in the playoffs. After two games he is shooting 33.3% overall, 16.7% from three with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.20. If I’m Magic GM Otis Smith I think long and hard before offering Jameer a contract extension this summer.

Utah v Houston (Rockets up 2-0) – This series has been relatively close thus far, but the Jazz lack of post season experience has really hurt them. Houston has managed to outscore Utah 110 to 82 in the second half combined through two games. Not good.

The numbers that scream out to me are all related to free throws. The Rockets are shooting 86% from the line with 55 makes. While Jazz are at 65% with 22 makes. Yikes. Utah has also committed 20 more fouls than Houston (51 to 31) so far. The foul disparity doesn’t surprise me for two reasons; One, both games were at Toyota Center. And two, the Jazz were #1 overall in fouls committed per game this season (25.20 pfpg).

There have been some key coaching decisions that have really influenced this series so far. Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy putting Yao Ming on Carlos Boozer and Chuck Hayes on Memo Okur has turned out to be brilliant. Yao frustrated Boozer in Game 1 and Hayes continues to neutralize the All-Star Okur. Memo is averaging 5 points (down from 17.6 this season) on 18% shooting from the field (46.2%) and 23% from three (35.6%). He also has only been to the free throw line twice, missing both. It goes without saying that Okur has to pick it up for Utah to have a chance.

On the other hand Jazz coach Jerry Sloan has baffled me with his match up decisions. Derek Fisher on Tracy McGrady? You’ve got to be kidding me. Look, I know Andrei Kirilenko has struggled all year scoring the ball, and him crying (literally) about his minutes after Game 1 was bush league, but he HAS TO guard T-Mac. Just has to. How about this…replace Fish with sixth man Matt Harpring and let Harpring defend Shane Battier. Not only does this allow AK to check McGrady, but it also puts Utah’s best five on the court at the same time.

As bad as the Jazz have looked, I don’t think this series is over just yet. Utah plays much better in Salt Lake and the officiating should switch ever so slightly back toward the middle as well. While the adjustments Sloan does or doesn’t make will be paramount, I expect guys like Memo, Deron Williams and maybe even rookie Paul Millsap to perform with more confidence in the friendly confines of EnergySoultions Arena.

Tap Dancing & Year End Awards

> This year’s tap dancing segment is the smallest it’s ever been since I started covering the NBA full time mid-way through the 2002-03 season. I ended up missing only one team per conference for a grand total of 14 out of 16 playoff teams.

EAST

I had in…

6. Indiana (35-47) – I should have taken the shootout outside that strip club in training camp as a sign of things to come. Nothing went right for the Pacers this season. From Jermaine O’Neal, Jamaal Tinsley & Marquis Daniels being injured, to the trade for Troy Murphy & Mike Dunleavy Jr., to coach Rick Carlisle losing control of the locker room. It all went from bad to worse in a hurry. Losing 11 straight games from 2/23 to 3/14 pretty much sealed their fate.

I had out…

11. Toronto (47-35) – I mentioned in my Eastern preview that I liked the looks of the Raptors roster on paper, but thought they were still at least a year away. As it turned out, T-Dot came together faster than anyone expected, so I really don’t feel all that bad about missing on them.

WEST

I had in…

7. Clippers (40-42) – This has to be the most disappointing squad in the NBA for a variety of reasons. It’s easy to blame the injures to Sam Cassell & Shaun Livingston, but it’s deeper than that. Elton Brand got off to an extremely slow start, Corey Maggette feuded with coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. and Tim Thomas reverted to his non-contract-year form. The biggest thing for me though was their inconsistent effort as a team. For evidence you need look no further then their home loss to a floundering Sacramento club in the third to last game of the season.

I had out…

12. Golden State (42-40) – Again, I don’t feel too bad about missing on the Warriors because they weren’t a playoff team until they pulled off the biggest trade of the season. If I messed up on anything it’s that coach Don Nelson definitely still knows how to win games in the association.

> Before I hand out my year end awards I just wanted to mention that if some familiar names are missing it’s because they didn’t play in at least 60 games this season. The envelopes please…

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Marcus Camby (Denver)
2. Jermaine O’Neal (Indiana)
3. Shane Battier (Houston)

All-Defense Team

PG – Kirk Hinrich (Chicago)
SG – Anthony Parker (Toronto)
SF – Shane Battier (Houston)
PF – Jermaine O’Neal (Indiana)
C – Marcus Camby (Denver

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix)
2. Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)
3. Matt Harpring (Utah)

Executive of the Year

1. Bryan Colangelo (Toronto)
2. Chris Mullin (Golden State)
3. John Paxson (Chicago)

Coach of the Year

1. Sam Mitchell (Toronto)
2. Jerry Sloan (Utah)
3. Avery Johnson (Dallas)

Rookie of the Year

1. Brandon Roy (Portland)
2. Andrea Bargnani (Toronto)
3. Paul Millsap (Utah)

All-Rookie Team

PG – Rajon Rondo (Boston)
SG – Brandon Roy (Portland)
SF – Andrea Bargnani (Toronto)
PF – Paul Millsap (Utah)
C – LeMarcus Aldridge (Portland)

Most Valuable Player

1. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
2. Steve Nash (Phoenix)
3. Tim Duncan (San Antonio)
4. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
5. Tracy McGrady (Houston)

All-NBA

PG – Steve Nash (Phoenix)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – Tracy McGrady (Houston)
PF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Second Team

PG – Gilbert Arenas (Washington)
SG – LeBron James (Cleveland)
SF – Chris Bosh (Toronto)
PF – Carlos Boozer (Utah)
C – Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Third Team

PG – Jason Kidd (New Jersey)
SG – Vince Carter (New Jersey)
SF – Kevin Garnett (Minnesota)
PF – Elton Brand (Clippers)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Lakers at Suns & Warriors at Mavs

Lakers v Phoenix – While I’m sure many are expecting a repeat of the classic seven gamer from last year, I’m not as optimistic. Truth be told, both teams struggled over the last month of the season with chemistry issues and it showed in their records. Los Angeles went 8-8 and the Suns 11-6.

As for the numbers, neither club plays any defense or rebounds particularly well. Phoenix finished 14th overall in opponents field goal percentage (45.69%) and the Lakers 18th (46.09%). Rebound differential was no better as LA ended up 19th overall (-1.00) and the Suns 24th (-2.34).

As you would imagine Phoenix really has the advantage when it comes to offense. The Suns led the league in shooting (49.42%), 3-point shooting (39.9%), free throw shooting (80.8%) and assists (25.87 apg). The Lakers by comparison were 6th (46.56%), 16th (35.3%), 18th (74.7%) and 6th (22.56 apg) respectively. Not too shabby, but not on the level of Phoenix either.

Lastly the Suns also have the edge in turnovers committed (9th, 14.50 topg) and fouls committed (3rd, 20.23 pfpg). LA is in the bottom third in both categories (19th, 15.52 topg & 20th, 23.03 pfpg).

All those statistics point to the same thing; The Lakers like to run and play no D, but they don’t do it as well as Phoenix does. That’s really been LA’s modus operandi all season long. They score enough points to win, but never ever get the big stops that put squads away. That is fatal against a team like the Suns.

For the Lakers to have any chance both Lamar Odom (left shoulder) and Kwame Brown (left ankle) are going to have to play well. Brown is really the key because he is LA’s best interior defender. Hopefully Kwame can at least slow Amare Stoudemire down some, but if Brown can’t go or gets in foul trouble, the Lakers road is that much tougher.

The Odom – Shawn Marion match up would be the main event if Lamar was healthy. As is LO is a pretty one dimensional player offensively right now. His jumper wasn’t all that good to begin with, and now it’s down right bad…especially from distance. He has also become a major liability at the free thrown stripe. Since Odom really isn’t quick enough to drive by Marion, Lamar must focus on defense, rebounding and play making.

Rookie Jordan Farmar started the last two games of the season in a move that was long overdue. Why LA coach Phil Jackson waited so long to pull the trigger on that one is beyond me. Now Farmar gets to face the reigning two time league MVP in his first ever playoff series. Great. If Jordan can pressure the ball and not make too many mistakes I’ll take that as a victory.

Key Match Up – Raja Bell on Kobe Bryant. These two guys don’t like each other and have been involved in their share of on court squabbles. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times; No one can stop Kobe. However, it is possible to frustrate the “Mamba”, and Raja is one of the best at it. The Lakers have zero chance to pull the upset if Bryant goes away from the game plan and gets into an individual battle with Bell.

Prediction – Even though LA has a deeper bench than Phoenix, the Lakers will not be able to out run the Suns over the course of the series. Kobe’s greatness snags LA a win in game three, but nothing more. Phoenix in 5.

Golden State v Dallas – Much like the series above this one features two teams that like to play the same way, with one squad being superior to the other. The difference here is that the Warriors have had a lot of success against the Mavericks, winning the last five regular season games between the two clubs by an average of 12.4 points.

The offensive numbers are much the same too, with Dallas having the edge in shooting (finished 5th overall at 46.73%), 3-point shooting (3rd, 38.1%) and free throw shooting (2nd, 80.5%). Compared to GS being 12th (46.27%), 13th (35.6%) and 26th (71.7%) respectively. The Warriors do take the Mavs in assists though (4th, 23.78 apg to 24th, 19.90 apg).

Digging deeper we see that Dallas has a big edge in the statistics that really count. Defensive field goal percentage (7th, 44.70% to 19th, 46.16%), rebound differential (3rd, +3.78 to 30th, -5.01) and turnovers committed (5th, 13.90 topg to 23rd, 15.96 topg) all heavily favor the Mavs.

GS finished the last month of the season on a 10-4 kick. Things really started to click for the Warriors when coach Don Nelson went to a small ball lineup full time. Starters Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington are a match up nightmare for most squads. Dallas, on the other hand, not so much. The Mavs (who went 14-4 over the final month BTW) can mix and match with anything Nellie dreams up.

The key guy for GS is B Diddy. As Baron goes so go the Warriors. Jason Terry is a good defender but he’s a little light in the shorts. Devin Harris is quicker than Davis but much smaller. BD needs to post both of them up whenever he can, but especially JET. Terry is the engine that makes Dallas go, and without him on the floor the Mavs just aren’t as good.

Key Match Up – Josh Howard & J-Rich. Richardson might be the most underrated player in the NBA right now. Jason quietly put up 21.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks in April. He also shot 50.0% from the field and 47.2% from three during that same stretch. Howard is a great defender, and when he scores 20 points Dallas almost never loses. Each player is ultra-competitive and doesn’t like to give an inch. So this could turn into a fitness contest between the two.

Prediction – No matter what happens, this is going to be a very entertaining series to watch. GS’s success against the Mavs can’t be ignored. Nor can Nellie’s familiarity with many of the Dallas player’s tendencies. In the end though the Mavs defense, rebounding and experience will be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Dallas in 6.

Magic at Pistons & Wiz at Cavs

Orlando v Detroit – I really don’t know how much in depth I should go with this series because I’m sure everyone knows it’s going to be a blitzkrieg. Just like when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. Anyway, to the numbers.

Both teams play stellar defense; The Pistons finished 6th overall in opponents field goal percentage (44.49%) and the Magic 3rd (44.24%). Amazingly enough, Orlando also has the edge in rebound differential. The Magic ended up 5th overall (+3.12) and Detroit 18th (-.65).

What really favors the Pistons though are free throw shooting (7th, 77.4%), fouls committed (5th, 20.39 pfpg) and turnovers committed (1st, 12.20 topg). Orlando was 28th (70.2%), 21st (23.22 pfpg) and 29th (16.97 topg) respectively. That doesn’t bode well for the Magic.

Orlando is actually built to play the same way as Detroit. Defense first, grind it out offense and so on. The problem for the Magic is that the Pistons are better in every facet of the game right now. That’s not meant to be a knock on Orlando because they are a young club getting their first taste of the post season (for the most part). It just so happens that Detroit is the grizzled-veteran-five-years-down-the-road version of the same squad.

An interesting (to me) side note to this series is that Darko Milicic looked poised for one of those fantastic playoff runs that ends with him getting wildly overpaid. Then he sprained his right ankle in the second to last game of the season. I bet he wishes he had played hard all year…or maybe he doesn’t...with him you never can tell.

Key Match Up – The Pistons D & Dwight Howard. Welcome to the big time kid. D Hiddy was 3rd in the league in turnovers per game (3.9) and had major trouble dealing with double teams. Again, I’m not criticizing him. Many young bigs in the NBA suffer from the same thing, and remember that Howard is still just 21 years old. That said, Detroit is going to relentlessly double him from all angles with every player on the court. How Dwight handles this “learning experience” will tell us a lot about what kind of player he’s really going to be.

Prediction – I expect most of these games to be close because the Pistons will undoubtedly still be in “coast mode”. But they’ll do what they always do and make a play or two at the end of each game to secure the victory. Detroit in 4.

Washington v Cleveland – In retrospect it turned out to be a good thing that I soldiered on through the tough previews yesterday. These two series’ are complete dogs and today is 4/20, so I’ve got imminent business to attend to.

The Cavaliers finished 8th in defensive field goal percentage (44.79%) and 4th in rebound differential (+3.65). Those are high quality numbers any way you slice them. The Wizards ended up 27th (47.25%) and 23rd (-1.79) respectively, and those stats have nothing to do with Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler’s (right hand) injuries.

While Cleveland was a rather unimpressive 9-7 over the last month of the season, Washington was an atrocious 5-13. Of course that record can be blamed on the loss of GA and “Tough Juice”. What team wouldn’t suffer after losing arguably their two best players and 47.5 points, 14.9 free throw attempts, 12 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 4.01 steals & 3.1 threes of production? Ouch babe!

Key Match Up – The Cavs D & Antawn Jamison. Obviously Tawn has to do the heavy lifting on offense for the Wiz to have any chance at all. I’m talking in the vicinity of 35 points a night…if not more. The plan for Cleveland should be simple, harass Jamison everywhere he goes on the court. Don’t ever let him get an open look, keep a fresh guy on him at all times and hammer him any time he goes to the hole.

Prediction – Here’s what Washington needs to do to be competitive; Become a good defensive team overnight and milk the shot clock on every single solitary offensive possession. Being that both of those things are the exact opposite of their normal tendencies, they are cooked. Cavs in 4.

Nets at Raps & Heat at Bulls

New Jersey v Toronto – I have to admit this series was a tough call for me before I started looking at the numbers. Then after analyzing the statistics for a while it became even more difficult. These teams are just about mirror images of each other…with a few exceptions of course.

I’ll start off with my favorite, defensive field goal percentage. The Nets ended up 9th overall (44.95%), but the Raptors finished 21st (46.28%) which is second worst among playoff teams. I was shocked by that because Toronto didn’t seem *that* bad to me defensively.

Another surprising number in NJ’s favor was rebounding. It’s not like the Nets are great with a rebound differential of -.56 (17th), but again the Raps were flat out bad, ending up 27th in the league (-3.09). That is also second worst among playoff teams.

So without my two favorite stats, what does T-Dot have going for them? Well they finished 6th overall in both free throw shooting (78.8%) & fouls committed (20.39 pfpg) and were 2nd overall in turnovers committed (13.46 topg). Where NJ was 25th (72.7%), 19th (22.79 pfpg) and 12th (12.78 topg) respectively. Those are the kind of numbers that could make all the difference in a series that I expect to have many tight finishes.

The key to this series for both sides are the Anthony Parker – Vince Carter and Joey Graham – Richard Jefferson battles. Parker started every game he played for Toronto and really carved out a niche for himself as their defensive stopper. I think it’s safe to say that shadowing VC for seven games will be his toughest test yet. RJ has been rounding back into form after right ankle surgery but is still not quite the explosive athlete he once was. Ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup for Jorge Garbajosa (out, left ankle), Graham has been playing the best ball of his career. That’s bad news for the Nets because Joey is more athletic than Jefferson at the moment. I think you’ll see each game swing dependent upon who comes out on top of these match ups every night.

Key Match Up – T.J. Ford & Jason Kidd. A classic example of the old guard versus the new. Ford is ten years younger than Kidd and much, much quicker with the ball. T.J. should be able to break Jason off the dribble and get into the lane pretty much at will. Kidd ought to counter by posting Ford up whenever he can and using his height & strength advantage to force double teams. Each guy’s strong point is the other guys weakness, so foul trouble is something to keep your eye on.

Prediction – NJ has a big time edge in post season experience and that is tough for me to ignore. However, the Nets have been extremely streaky this season, rarely displaying the consistency to string together quality wins. In fact, their longest wining streak was four games (twice). Conversely, the Raps won a ton of close games this year and demonstrated that innate ability to somehow always find a way. That, along with Toronto having the superior bench, swayed me. Raps in 7.

Miami v Chicago – It would figure that the two hardest series’ for me pick are the two I have to write about after getting hardly any sleep the last couple of nights (GBA & YMSB). Anyway, this is a rematch from last year’s playoffs and should not disappoint. These squads do not like each other at all. Furthermore, each coach called out an opposing player as dirty during the season. This series is going to get testy, you can count on that.

The numbers say these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls finished second in defensive field goal percentage (43.53%) and the Heat 5th (44.42%). We’ll call that a wash.

Rebound differential favors Chicago pretty significantly. The Bulls ended up 6th (+2.78) while Miami was 16th (-.54). I suppose you can blame some of that on Shaquille O’Neal missing 42 games, but I’ve long since stopped making excuses for Shaq led clubs.

The only other stat worth mentioning here is 3-point percentage. Chi-town was a somewhat surprising 2nd overall (38.8%), while the Heat were a lowly 27th (34.3%). This bears watching for two reasons. First, the Bulls are a jump shooting team, so it behooves them to be money from behind the arc. Second, you’d think Miami’s percentage would be better than that with all the double teams Shaq draws. Not to mention league leader Jason Kapono’s gaudy number (51.4%).

Chicago wants to push the ball and get easy looks in transition because they really don’t have a post player or a guy that can consistently create quality opportunities off the dribble. The Heat would like to slow the game down. Not only to take advantage of Shaq down low, but also because they are a little long in the tooth and slow of foot.

While The Diesel has certainly lost a step or two, you still have to game plan around dealing with him. Enter Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown. The Bulls brought these two in specifically to deal with the Big Fella, and it’s time for them to earn their keep. After Big Ben and P.J. the next line of defense is decidedly worse. Guys like Malik Allen, Tyrus Thomas, Michael Sweetney & Viktor Khryapa have no chance at all against Shaq, but one of them is going to have to play some minutes. Good luck.

Someone on Chicago has to break out, become their go-to-guy and carry the squad in crunch time. Usually they look to Ben Gordon, but he is streaky at best and really kinda easy to shut down. I’m looking for Luol Deng to make a statement about the type of player he can develop into because Andres Nocioni (right foot) has only played in five games thus far since his comeback.

Key Match Up – Krik Hinrich & Dwyane Wade. This is thee main event. Hinrich was the guy Miami coach Pat Riley called dirty (James Posey was singled out by Bulls coach Scott Skiles) and Wade echoed his leader’s statement. To quote the great Artie Lange, “WHAHHH!” You see, Captain Kirk has garnered a reputation as an excellent defender, and with that comes some leeway from the referees. Now no player gets more leeway from the refs then D Wade. So this battle really boils down to who can get away with more? Look for Kirk to run Dwyane’s left shoulder into as many picks as humanly possible and for Chicago in general to be very physical with Wade. On the flip side, Flash should post Hinrich up and try to get Kirk into some foul trouble.

Prediction – First off, this is going to be a contentious hard fought battle right from the opening tip of game one. What makes this a tough call for me is that there are so many question marks. Can the Bulls get over blowing the #2 seed on the final day of the regular season? Can the Heat flip the switch again? Will Wade’s shoulder hold up? I’d love to pick Chicago because they *know* they can beat Miami, but I just don’t have the onions (Bill Raftery!). Plus, I picked the Heat to go to the Finals back in October, so I’ll let that be the determining factor here. Miami in 6.

Wrap Up

> The playoff field is finally set and the big news of the last night was that Chicago lost in New Jersey. With this defeat, and Cleveland’s dismissal of Milwaukee, the Bulls fell from #2 to #5. What that means is Chi-town opens up with Miami rather than Washington. Ouch! Boki Nachbar’s three 3’s in the fourth quarter sealed the game and locked up #6 for the Nets.

> In the other Eastern race Orlando did their part by beating a depleted (by resting people) Miami squad, but Washington did not cooperate. Ike Diogu missing two free throws with :25 seconds left and Indiana down one pretty much sums up the Pacers season. The Wizards ended up at #7 and the Magic #8.

> Out West Golden State demolished an undermanned (by injuries) Portland club to make the playoffs for the first time since 1994. NellieBall in effect! The Warriors finished up at #8 because the Lakers (#7) took care of their business in Sacramento. The Clippers were officially eliminated when GS won, but LA’s other team didn’t even give themselves a chance by losing to New Orleans/Oklahoma City at Staples Center.

> Considering the amount of unfair criticism the NBA takes it has to be somewhat of a surprise to most that only one under .500 team (Orlando 40-42) qualified for the post season in both conferences combined. There were also seven 50-win clubs (5 West, 2 East) overall, which is a decent number.

> These playoffs are going to have a hard time living up to last year’s memorable display, but there are some very intriguing first round match ups.

- New Jersey at Toronto features Vince Carter’s return to Canada.
- Miami at Chicago is a rivalry in the making. There is definite bad blood between these two squads.
- Utah at Houston will be boring but competitive.
- Lakers at Phoenix is a rematch that hopefully lives up to last year’s epic seven gamer.
- Denver at San Antonio pits two of the hottest teams in the league in a battle of styles.
- Golden State at Dallas will have the most interesting quotes with Don Nelson facing off against his former boss Mark Cuban.

> I leave you today with another shout out to Luke Jackson. In a meaningless game in Toronto Jackson went 12-16 from the floor and scored a career high 30 points in 39 minutes (he also had 5 assists & 4 rebounds). Never mind that the Raptors lost because Luke already signed a contract for all of next season on 4/14. This is your last chance buddy, better make the most of it.

This is the End

> It’s the final day of the regular season and an amazing eight playoff spots are still up for grabs. People love to say how the regular season is boring and means nothing, but from where I sit there’s been playoff level intensity in at least one game a night for the past six weeks. If you have ‘League Pass’ it makes for some entertaining TV. Alright, enough with the umpteenth sales pitch and on to business.

> Games of note tonight…

EAST

#2 & #5

- Milwaukee at Cleveland – if the Cavaliers don’t roll the Bucks something is wrong.

- Chicago at New Jersey on ESPN – the only game of the night pitting two clubs with something to play for against each other.

#6, #7 & #8

- Miami at Orlando – don’t look for the Heat to play their regulars much, if at all.

- Chicago at New Jersey on ESPN

- Washington at Indiana – if there’s a team that’s floundering more than the Wizards, it’s the Pacers.

WEST

#7 & #8

- Golden State at Portland – a win by the Warriors and the NBA’s longest playoff-less streak comes to an end.

- Lakers at Sacramento – LA not only needs a win to avoid Dallas in round one, but the Lakers need to get some positive momentum going as well.

- New Orleans/Oklahoma City at Clippers on ESPN – Elton Brand has been a monster lately, but it may be too little too late for LA’s other squad.

> Much has been made about long time referee Joey Crawford tossing Tim Duncan for laughing on the bench during a nationally televised game on 4/15. The only thing that surprised me, including Tim’s ejection and the subsequent suspension of Crawford, was how public Commissioner David Stern went with the whole deal.

Said Stern, “Especially in light of similar prior acts by this official, a significant suspension is warranted. Although Joey is consistently rated as one of our top referees, he must be held accountable for his actions on the floor, and we will have further discussions with him following the season to be sure he understands his responsibilities.” He went on to say that Crawford’s actions “failed to meet the standards of professionalism and game management we expect of NBA referees.”

Joey’s response in an email after meeting with NBA Executive Director for Basketball Operations Stu Jackson, “I told him [Stu] I would throw Duncan out again if he did what he did. So if my employer does not think that was acceptable, then I have a problem.”

Crawford also likened his situation to that of longtime ref Jake O'Donnell, who was barred by the league from working the 1995 Finals after refusing to shake hands with Houston's Clyde Drexler before a '95 playoff game and later ejecting Drexler. O'Donnell never refereed in the league again.

My take on all this is that there’s no way Joey is ever going to be contrite enough to get his job back. So I say good riddance to another referee that thinks he’s bigger than the game. I can only hope that Steve Javie does something stupid enough to lose his job in the near future too.

Guys like O’Donnell, Crawford & Javie *do* hold personal grudges against certain players, and there’s just no room for that in the game. I’d much rather see the NBA hire some fresh faces that are solely interested in doing the best possible job and aren’t jaded by years of dealing with day-to-day grind of the association.

Nugs at Spurs & Jazz at Rockets

> I’m not going to get too much into this, but for any new readers out there I’m looking to make it four consecutive undefeated first rounds this year (it’s all documented on the MMM archives). Let’s get to it.

Denver v San Antonio – This series is all about which team can get the other to play at their tempo. Per John Hollinger’s “pace factor” (the number of possessions a team uses per game) the Nuggets are 2nd at 100.2 and the Spurs are 27th at 92.0. Those numbers underscore my point that Denver wants/needs to run and SA prefers to walk it up.

Another difference I noticed when looking at the numbers is that the Spurs are a somewhat surprising 4th overall in 3-point shooting (38.1%) while the Nugs are a lowly 28th (33.5%).

The least remarkable statistical disparity is on the defensive end where SA is 3rd overall in opponent’s field goal shooing (44.09%) and the Nugs are 16th (46.05%). That should come as a surprise to no one.

Denver has the big bodies to deal with Tim Duncan in Marcus Camby & Nene Hilario. The key for Mr. Camby & Nene is for one of them to stay out of foul trouble every game and make Duncan work for his points.

It will also be interesting to watch Allen Iverson and Tony Parker go at each other. Neither player is known as a defensive stopper, but neither is a liability on that end either. At this point in their careers I give the quickness edge to Parker. So I’m curious to see if AI gets frustrated and tries to do too much when Tony is consistently breaking him down off the dribble. Don’t get me wrong, Iverson will still get to the hoop, but I think Parker will do a better job keeping Allen in front of him than vice versa.

The biggest problem I see for the Nugs is who guards Manu Ginobili when he’s paired in the back court with TP? It can’t be AI. Steve Blake or J.R. Smith? C’mon now. I think Denver’s best chance to contain Manu is with one of my favorites, Linas “The Menace” Kleiza. Playing Linas big minutes at SG means that Iverson will be running the point more than Blake though. So it’s pick your poison there for Nugs coach George Karl.

Key Match Up – Bruce Bowen on Carmelo Anthony. I’m already on record as saying that Bowen has lost a step, but BB can still get the job done, trust me. Melo has the quick first step to get by Bruce and Anthony is also strong enough to overpower BB in the post. To have any chance of limiting Carmelo’s effectiveness Bowen will need to use every “trick” is his book and try to get into Anthony’s head.

Prediction – No squad is better at imposing it’s will than the Spurs. So the question becomes, how will Denver’s fragile chemistry hold up under playoff pressure when the game slows down? There might be an entertaining game or two along the way, but in the end SA handles their business in workmanlike fashion. Spurs in 5.

Utah v Houston – This match up is about as even as you can get, and of course I have some numbers to back that up. The Rockets are 1st overall in defensive field goal percentage (42.69%) and the Jazz 11th (45.60%). However, Utah is 1st overall in rebound differential (+5.12) and Houston is 7th (+2.62). So you’ve got the best defensive team squaring off against the best rebounding team.

But wait, there’s more.

The Jazz are 3rd league wide in overall shooting (47.27%) and the Rockets 26th (44.49%). On the other hand, Houston is 5th overall in 3-point shooting (37.3%) and Utah is 29th (33.3%). So you’ve got a club that can shoot from everywhere except distance versus a club that can’t shoot anywhere besides from deep. Weird, eh?

The correlations do not stop there either. Both squads have solid eight man rotations and control freak coaches. The difference being that the Rockets Jeff Van Gundy obsesses over his defense and Jerry Sloan dictates the Jazz offense.

This series is going to boil down to what kind of job Andrei Kirilenko does defending Tracy McGrady. AK-47 will be playing with a fractured left thumb, so he can focus all his energy on T-Mac and forget about offense. If Kirilenko can’t get the job done, the options behind him go from bad to worse. Matt Harpring & Gordan Giricek are too slow while Ronnie Brewer & C.J. Miles don’t have the experience.

Conversely Houston has a few options to deal with Utah’s top gun, Carlos Boozer. Starter Chuck Hayes has the necessary combination of quick feet and strength to check Booz. Next is Juwan Howard. What Juwan lacks in speed he makes up for in veteran guile. Then don’t forget jack-of-all-trades defender Shane Battier, who will certainly get his chance on Carlos as well

Key Match Up – Yao Ming & Memo Okur. This is a very interesting tussle between two All-Star centers that possess completely different games. Yao likes to do all his work down low where Memo prefers to float around the perimeter. This is where it gets intriguing. Will Ming put enough fouls on Okur to get him out of the game? Or does Memo consistently draw Yao outside opening up the lane for his teammates to work?

Prediction – About a month ago this was going to be an extremely tough call for me. Now, not so much. The Jazz have gone 7-12 since 3/13, the Rockets 13-4 since 3/14. You just don’t magically start playing well again when the playoffs start. That said I think this could be a competitive, albeit boring to watch, series. Houston in 7.

> One game of note tonight.....Orlando at Washington

Playoff Race Updates

With only three days left in the regular season the playoff picture is finally coming into focus. The field is set in the East but only Detroit, Toronto & Miami are locked into their seeds (#1, #3 & #4 respectively). Out West the top three are set (Dallas, Phoenix & San Antonio in order) as well as #6 (Denver). This means we already know what one first round series will be…Nuggets at Spurs.

I won’t be putting out one giant playoff preview this year. Instead I’m going to post them on the blog one by one as they are set. So keep checking in regularly!

(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)

EAST

2. Chicago (49-32) - @NJ

For the Bulls it’s simple. Beat New Jersey on the last day of the season and #2 is theirs. If Chicago loses they open the door for Cleveland, which would mean the Bulls fall to #5 and get the Heat in round one. Chicago owns the tiebreaker over Toronto, so even if the Bulls finish up at #2 with 33 losses, they’d have home court over the Raptors in round two.

5. Cleveland (48-32) - @Phl & Mil

The Cavaliers need to win out and have Chicago lose in order to move up to #2. If Cleveland loses at Philadelphia on 4/17, the Cavs are automatically #5 because they lose the second tiebreaker to the Bulls on division record (9-6 to 12-4). I’m sure the league office is salivating at the chance to market a LeBron James – Dwyane Wade first round match up. I’m sick of it already.

6. Washington (40-40) - Orl & @Ind

The Wizards continue their downward spiral without Gilbert Arenas & Caron Butler. Washington could still finish at #8 if they lose the rest of their games. I suspect they’ll find a way to go 1-1 and avoid Detroit in the opening round.

7. New Jersey (39-41) - & @NY, Chi

The Nets hold the tiebreakers over both Washington & Orlando, so they have the best chance to move up to #6. NJ taking care of business tonight at The Garden against the Knicks would put the pressure on the Wiz & Magic. The Nets could also get lucky and end up facing a Chicago team with nothing to play for on the final night of the season (if the 76ers beat the Cavs).

8. Orlando (38-42) - @Wsh & Mia

The Magic are in but they need to maintain their focus for their 4/17 showdown in Washington. The reason being that if the Magic beat the Wiz & Heat they would win the second tiebreaker (division record, 9-7 to 8-8) over Washington. The other bonus for the Magic winning out is that they can pass the Nets should NJ lose out.

WEST

4. Utah (49-31) - Por, Hou

If the Jazz win out, and Houston loses to Phoenix, Utah gets home court in round one by virtue of winning the season series with the Rockets (3-1). Otherwise the Jazz open the playoffs at the Toyota Center.

5. Houston (51-29) - Phx, @Uth

The Rockets can sew up home court in the first round by beating a Phoenix team with nothing to play for tonight. I suspect the Suns will rest some of their key players, so if Houston blows this game they deserve what they get in Utah on 4/18.

7. Lakers (41-40) - @Sac

Los Angeles is already in because they hold the tiebreakers over both Golden State and the Clippers. The Lakers need to take care of business at ARCO on the final day of the season because a loss to the Kings could mean Dallas in round one. LA coach Phil Jackson has already gone on record saying he doesn’t like the way his club matches up against the Mavericks.

8. Golden State (40-40) - Dal & @Por

Two more wins is all it will take for the Warriors to break their 12 year post season drought. I read where Dallas coach Avery Johnson said that he is going to continue to rest his players, but I have to wonder about that. The rationale being that he didn’t yesterday against the Spurs, so why would he want to risk going 0-3 on the season against GS when they are likely to face each other in the opening round? The Warriors just need to continue to play free & easy and they should be fine.

Clippers (39-41) - @Phx & NO/OKC

Los Angeles was outscored 60 to 41 in the first half yesterday at home yesterday against a Sacramento squad with nothing to play for. That’s called not being ready to play, just a terrible loss. The saving grace for the Clips is that they hold the tiebreaker over GS by virtue of a better division record (7-8 to 6-10) should they finish tied. Another thing LA has going for them is that both the Suns & Hornets should be resting guys when they get together.

> Philadelphia, New Orleans/Oklahoma City & Indiana were all officially eliminated from the playoffs over the weekend.

Friday 4/13

> I know I risk losing you right off the bat by opening with a game of also rans, but it’s the weekend, so bear with me. The final score had the Bucks beating the Celtics by two in Boston, but the real story was the play of Leon Powe down the stretch. If you are one of the five people that regularly read my stuff you know that I have been touting Powe all year long as a rookie that can play. Well in the final 4:01 last night with the Celts down eight Leon scored 9 of their last 13 to bring Boston within two. Nice. I apologize in advance, but I have to drop some Hollinger stats on you. LP’s PER is 14.75 and he averages 14.7 pts/40 min, 12 reb/40 with a true shooting percentage of 55%. Keep your eye on this guy.

> In the Hornets final game in Oklahoma City the Denver Nuggets were able to overcome the frenzied home crowd and finish the game on a 17 to 4 run to win by two. NO/OKC had the ball with :17 seconds left and chance to win or tie but came up just short. First Chris Paul missed a driving lay-up. Then Devin Brown got the rebound but missed the put back. Finally Bobby Jackson missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer after the rebound was tapped out to him. Just a superb comeback by the Nugs under very difficult conditions. Followed by a fantastic finishing flurry by the Hornets to cap the game of the evening.

> Indiana fell two games behind Orlando in the Eastern race for #8 by losing to the Heat by four in Miami. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Jermaine O’Neal is struggling at the moment. JO has been playing with a sore left knee & ankle (and another ailment he won’t reveal until the season is over) for three months now. And when Jermaine is not right, the Pacers aren’t good. It’s that simple. In seven games in April JO is averaging 15.2 points on 35.7% shooting, down from his season averages of 19.4 and 43.6%. Not good at all for Indy’s post season chances.

In a related story, I think it’s safe to say that Al Harrington & Stephen Jackson are better players than Troy Murphy & Mike Dunleavy Jr. Don’t you?

> In Chicago Thabo Sefolosha hit a 3-pointer as the shot clock expired to make it 100-79 with 3.7 seconds left in the game to send Bulls fans home with free Big Macs. However, unlike New York on 4/10, Charlotte didn’t get all upset and pouty. Instead the Bobcats accepted the fact that they got beat badly like grown men.

> The Lakers, who are a pathetic 2-8 in their last ten, play host to Seattle on 4/15 in an absolute must win for my boys. I know the SuperSonics are playing out the string right now, but that doesn’t matter because they are a very tough match up for LA. In their three previous tilts this year Seattle has averaged 112.7 PPG on 48.2% shooting from the field & 45.3% from three. The Sonics have also out rebounded the Lakers 41.7 to 37 RPG and turned the ball over less too 13.7 to 17.3 TOPG. Granted, LA does lead the season series 2-1, but this game is not a gimmie by any stretch of the imagination.

> New York is officially the tenth team eliminated from the playoffs. Let the record show that the Knicks are 3-13 since President/coach Isiah Thomas received his contract extension.

> Games of note today…

- Orlando at Philadelphia
- New Orleans/Oklahoma City at Houston
- Phoenix at Utah on NBATV

Thursday 4/12

> Different game same story for my Lakers. As usual they scored enough points to win, but then in typical fashion they the opposition score a few more. If there’s one thing I need to see next season from my boys it’s a serious commitment to playing defense from day one. To hell with working on the triangle because scoring points in not their problem.

The other challenge in LA is finding another dynamic player, preferably a pass first PG that can defend, so that some of the pressure is removed from Kobe Bryant’s shoulders. Just take last night for example. The Lakers were outscored 32 to 17 in the 4th quarter. Included in that was a 26 to 8 run to finish the game. Included in that was a spurt of 10 to 0 that ended up being 16 to 1. Just plain awful.

The reason for that ineptitude is that no one on LA can make a clutch play except Kobe. Luke Walton & Ronny Turiaf, while nice role players, lack the athleticism necessary to consistently finish around the rim in the NBA. Then there’s guys like Smush Parker, Sasha Vujacic & Brian Cook who have no clue how to play when the pressure is on. The problem with that is, all those guys play crunch time minutes periodically. I’m excusing Lamar Odom (left shoulder), Jordan Farmar (20) & Andrew Bynum (19).….for now anyway.

At this point I’d rather have the Lakers miss the playoffs all together. The rationale being that they are going to get swept in the first round no matter who they end up playing. That being that case, they may as well be in the lottery with at least a slight chance of getting lucky.

> Games of note tonight…

- New York at New Jersey
- Denver at New Orleans/Oklahoma City
- Indiana at Miami on ESPN
- Lakers at Phoenix on ESPN

Wednesday 4/11

> Much like Methuselah, the Philadelphia 76ers will not die. The Sixers managed to outscore the Celtics in Boston 55-36 in the second half to win by eight. Making it even more improbable was that Philly was playing without Andre Iguodala & Kyle Korver. To quote Dick Enberg, “Oh my.” The Sixers must win out to have a chance, but you gotta believe!

> In yet another display of Deee-troit bas-ket-ball, the Pistons clinched the East by hanging around and making just enough plays at the end of the game to win. It’s a terrible habit, but the boys from Motown are very good at it. As for Orlando, they still hold #8, but the Magic suddenly face a HUGE game in Philadelphia on 4/14. I know I’ll be watching…will you?

> The Pacers held off a late charge in the 4th quarter to beat a hapless Bucks squad in Milwaukee. Indiana is only one game behind Orlando for #8 with the Pacers holding the tiebreaker. It’s gettin’ hot in here!

> The Miami Heat clinched the Southeast Division in another uninspired performance against an inferior opponent. I know they did it last year, but I have a hard time believing this club really has another gear to shift into for the post season. We shall see.

> The Denver Nuggets clinched a playoff berth by beating a reeling Jazz club in Utah. Matt Harpring had a great game (31 points on 13-19 FG) but made two bad plays in row with under 1:07 to go and Jazz down three. First he double clutched on an open 18-footer. Then he threw a pass to the scorer’s table on the very next possession. Comeback and game over.

The Nugs have won seven straight and still have not lost in April. I can’t take anything away from what Denver has accomplished recently, but let’s just say I’m still very skeptical about their chances in the playoffs.

Utah is another story entirely. They have gone a dreadful 5-11 since 3/13. I can’t really pinpoint what is wrong, but I’d say they lost their sense of urgency after they clinched the Northwest Division. They knew they couldn’t catch San Antonio and had a comfortable lead on Houston. Now that the Jazz are one game behind the Rockets for home court in the first round, maybe Utah will get their asses back in gear.

> The Trail Blazers outscored the Rockets 36 to 21 in the 4th quarter in Portland, but Houston was never really in jeopardy of losing. This game was a blowout so I started typing, only to see that the Blazers had made of game of it. As soon as I tuned in the first thing I saw was Brandon Roy fall on Tracy McGrady’s left leg (i.e. knee). I’m not a big T-Mac fan or anything, but I don’t want to see him seriously injured with only three games left before the playoffs either. Said McGrady, “It's a little sore, nothing's torn. I'm sure I'll feel better, it's nothing to worry about.” Let’s hope.

> Only two game tonight and both are on TNT…

- New Jersey at Cleveland
- Clippers at Lakers (This game is enormous for both clubs. If you East Coasters can stay up late enough, it’ll surely be worth your while.)

Tuesday 4/10

> We’ll start the night in Philadelphia where the 76ers played spoiler for the second time in three games. Believe it or not, but the Sixers are just four games back of #8 with five to play. Philly also has a game left against Orlando on 4/14 that will decide the tiebreaker between the two clubs.

As for Indiana, they are the team that can’t shoot straight. They made a paltry 32.7% of their attempts against Philly. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Pacers are also dead last in the league in overall shooting (43.85%). I hate to say it, but Indy needs a new offensive system that doesn’t involve current coach Rick Carlisle. Oh yeah, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. stinks!

> In a game that wasn’t always pretty, but did feature playoff intensity from start to finish, New Jersey took care of business in Washington. The Nets “Big 3” played…well…big. Richard Jefferson had a season high 35 and made some huge plays down the stretch. Jason Kidd had one basket (thee decisive tip-in) to go along with 14 rebounds & 11 assists. Vince Carter had a quiet 31, but did ice the game from the free throw line (13-13 from the stripe too).

It wasn’t all bad for the Wizards though because they clinched a playoff berth for the third straight year thanks to the Sixers.

> Miami was embarrassed at Charlotte in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score (92-82) would indicate. I understand that the Heat were without Shaquille O’Neal, Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton for various reasons, but their effort as a unit was piss poor all around. Miami can pretty much kiss having home court for even one series goodbye now.

> In the second playoff caliber contest of the night, the Hornets outlasted the Clippers in Oklahoma City. This game had a beautiful ebb & flow throughout and was highly entertaining taboot. The David West – Elton Brand match up was a pure joy to watch. EB was *huge* down the stretch of regulation scoring LA’s final three baskets to force overtime. In the extra session West took over scoring three straight buckets, two of which came on offensive rebound put backs. That was really the difference in the game too; the Clips just could not rebound the ball in OT. These two squads also meet on the final day of the season, and if NO/OKC wins, we’re talking the fourth tiebreaker possibly coming into play (better record against playoff teams in own conference).

I’m a little worried about my boy Chris Paul. He’s obviously playing hurt (left foot), and while his intestinal fortitude is to be admired, I can’t help but wonder if he’s going “Grant Hill” on me. What I mean by that is Hill tried to gut it out (left ankle) in the 2000 playoffs while on Detroit and ended up ruining his career. Listen to me CP3, you’re 21 years old and have many more seasons ahead of you. Just be smart is all I ask.

> Games of note tonight…

- Washington at Miami
- Orlando at Detroit on ESPN
- Denver at Utah

Monday 4/9

> In typical Detroit fashion, the Pistons toyed with the Knicks in New York, only to tighten the screws at the end. The boo birds were out at The Garden as the clock ran out, but what do New Yorkers expect without Stephon Marbury, David Lee and Renaldo Balkman? The Knicks playoff hopes are on life support, while the Pistons magic number is one to clinch the East.

The main reason I chose this uneventful game to type about is that I want to know who in the league office made the call to make this the national game? It figures that after I give them kudos the decision makers switch out the much better Laker-Nugget contest for this mess.

> The Raptors just keep finding ways to win games. Down nine in the 4th quarter, Toronto exploded to outscore the Timberwolves 38 to 21 in Minnesota by making six of nine 3’s in the final frame. I’m telling you right now, these Raps are going to be tough out in the playoffs.

> The Clippers hung tough with a valiant effort but just did not have enough in the end to beat Dallas *in* Dallas. Now that the Mavericks have wrapped up home court throughout the post season, it’s time for coach Avery Johnson to sit Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Erick Dampier. They can still practice, and maybe make a cameo or two, but even if they get rusty it won’t matter in the first round.

> My Lakers put on a great comeback in Denver but made too many stupid mistakes down the stretch to pull it out. Sasha Vujacic & Brian Cook especially. Coach Phil Jackson is still searching for two players to go along with Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Luke Walton to finish games. The problem for LA is that all their reserves seem to have very low basketball IQ's to go along with their mediocre talent. Not a good combination to say the least.

I’m probably in the minority here, but I find it kind of weird that Kobe still gets booed in Colorado any time he touches the ball. Just something not right about that.

> In a battle of two clubs that are heading in different directions and play diametrically opposite styles, the Warriors lambasted the Jazz 126-102 in Oakland. Golden State outscored Utah 73 to 48 combined in the middle two quarters. Ouch. The Warriors now sit only one loss out of #8 in the West and are closing fast.

> In my favorite bullet point, the number of officially eliminated teams almost doubled tonight from five to nine. Gone are Charlotte, Portland, Sacramento and Minnesota.

Just a quick note on the Wolves. They were 20-20 when they fired coach Dwane Casey and have gone 12-25 since. Yet somehow Kevin McHale is still employed as their Vice President of Basketball Operations? Umm, ok.

> Games of note tonight…

- New Jersey at Washington on NBATV
- Clippers at New Orleans/Oklahoma City

Sunday 4/8

> The daily recap starts in Miami where someone forgot to tell Charlotte they were supposed to roll over for Dwyane Wade’s glorious return. Three Walter Herrmann 3’s in overtime later and the Heat take an awful loss at home. If there’s one team you don’t want to see on your schedule right now, it’s the Bobcats. They flat out play hard and do not give up.

As for Wade, he looked pretty rusty going 6-12 from the free throw line and committing 6 turnovers. That’s to be expected after 45 days off though. He looked a little tentative off the dribble and reluctant to finish in traffic to me (as evidenced by his 8 assists). Conversely he did hit the deck once or twice and took a few shots to that bum left shoulder. We shall see…

> In a preview of a possible second round playoff match up, Toronto laid a beat down on what had been a pretty hot Chicago club. The Raptors went prehistoric on the Bulls in the 3rd quarter out scoring them 31-17. What keeps Toronto rolling along without a starter (Jorge Garbajosa) and their sixth man (Andrea Bargnani) is guys like Joey Graham, Kris Humphries, Anthony Parker and even Juan Dixon taking turns stepping up. Now it remains to be seen if they can keep it up in the playoffs, but so far so good in the regular season.

Oh yeah, Andres Nocioni made his return for Chicago after 64 days away nursing plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He only played 8 minutes and looked at least a step slow (committed 3 fouls in those 8 minutes), if not more.

> Philadelphia came from 17 down in the 3rd quarter to tie the game on an Andre Iguodala slam dunk with :56 seconds left in regulation. The Sixers went on to win the game in overtime and lose even more lottery ping-pong balls in the process.

> Games of note tonight…

- Detroit at New York
- Clippers at Dallas
- Lakers at Denver on NBATV
- Utah at Golden State

Playoff Race Update

The Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs from top to bottom, but I do expect three under .500 squads to make the post season when it’s all said and done. The West is more set, but there are still plenty of interesting races worth watching in the NBA’s power conference.

EAST

(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)

1. Detroit (49-27) - & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos

Things are still looking good for the Pistons to have home court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs. In fact, they should wrap it up sometime this week. That said, there is something off with Detroit recently. I know it’s not showing up in the standings, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pistons can be beaten in a seven game series before the Finals.

2. Chicago (46-32) - NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ

The Bulls split the season series with the Cavs, but are #2 based on the second tiebreaker (division record). Chicago will be favored to win all of their remaining games, but none of them figure to be easy. The Bulls have been playing very well as of late buoyed by contributions from both of their rookies (Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha). I’ve been saying all along that Chi-town will be very dangerous come playoff time, and nothing has changed my mind yet.

3. Toronto (44-33) - & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl

The Raptors are a squad that plays together under any circumstances. Toronto also has great chemistry which seems to lead to a different guy playing big almost every night. (Coach Sam Mitchell deserves credit for all of that BTW.) Other than their two games left versus Detroit, the Raps should be favored to win the rest. It’s also a possibility that the Pistons are on cruise control (having already clinched #1) when they meet. T-Dot is going to need some help to reach #2 because they lose the tiebreaker to both the Bulls and the Cavs.

4. Miami (42-35) - @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl

The Heat have the Southeast Division all but wrapped up. However, the boys from South Beach are staring straight down the barrel of not having home court advantage in any of the series’ they play in the post season. I’m sure that doesn’t phase them, but at the same time they have to know how much more difficult that makes the road to repeat. The key question with Miami is how much can Dwyane Wade really give them? If the answer is like 65% of normal, they’ll be fine. Anything less than 65% and the Heat will be lucky to see the Conference Finals.

5. Cleveland (46-32) - NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil

The Cavaliers are only 5-7 since 3/20 with losses to Charlotte (by 8 in OT), New York (by 4) and Boston (by 2) included in that stretch. I see no reason why Cleveland shouldn’t easily win the rest of their games too. Catching Detroit is now out of the question, so the least the Cavs can do for themselves is to put some pressure on the Bulls to win out. All is not lost for LeBron James and company though, since they will have home court advantage in the first round at #5 barring an unforeseen collapse.

6. Washington (39-37) - NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind

After losing both Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler (right hand) for the season the Wizards have predictably gone into a tailspin. Antawn Jamison has stepped up and led Washington in scoring (29.7 ppg) in every game since GA got hurt. Likewise, Antonio Daniels has led them in assists (13 apg) the last three games. None of that matters though because the Wiz only have one “gimmie” left and don’t have near the depth needed to sustain losing their top two players.

7. New Jersey (36-40) - @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi

The Nets haven’t really done anything to impress me down the stretch, but I just have a feeling about them for some reason. I even think they can still pass the Wiz for #6. NJ isn’t a great team by any means, but they are a playoff tested group that tends to win the games they should. A first round match up versus the Raps would be very interesting.

8. Orlando (35-41) - @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia

The Magic have been terribly inconsistent all year and that trend shows no sign of abating in the season’s last ten days. Orlando plays four of their next five away from home where they are a wretched 12-25. The Magic have two things going for them as I see it. One, they are relatively healthy. Two, Dwight Howard has subtly demanded more touches recently. Orlando must make their one game lead stick because they lose the tiebreaker to everyone.

Indiana (34-42) - @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh

Normally winning two games in a row doesn’t qualify as a story, but when you’ve won only six times since the All-Star break as the Pacers have, it does. While Indy is certainly still in contention for #8, they also play four of their next five on the road where they too are a paltry 12-25. Going .500 the rest of the way might be enough, but with Jermaine O’Neal (left knee, ankle), Jamaal Tinsley (right elbow) and Jeff Foster (back) all day-to-day, even that might be too much to ask.

New York (32-44) - Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr

I’m probably being kind here by still giving the Knicks a shot to qualify for the post season, but they do have two games left against the Nets. Realistically though, with their schedule and Stephon Marbury (right toe), David Lee (right leg) and Steve Francis (right ankle) all day-to-day, it’s only a matter of time.

WEST

1. Dallas (63-13) - LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea

One more win and the Mavericks clinch home court throughout the playoffs. I’m thinking it’s a fait accompli. I see no reason for them to play Josh Howard (right ankle) or Erick Dampier (right shoulder) at all, and Dirk Nowitzki & Jason Terry should also get plenty of rest (if a fake injury or two can’t be invented). The reason I say this is because with Avery Johnson as their coach I’m not worried about Dallas losing their edge any time soon.

2. Phoenix (58-19) - Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC

After the Suns play Seattle on 4/11 they close the season with two separate back-to-backs against clubs that will all *need* wins for playoff positioning. With Phoenix still in their own race for #2, this means Steve Nash, Shawn Marion (right hand) and Boris Diaw (back) will not be getting any significant rest prior to the post season. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to see the Suns get pushed to seven games in the first round, regardless of opponent.

3. San Antonio (55-21) - Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den

The Spurs closing stretch is pretty much a cake walk, with the exception of Dallas on 4/15 and Denver on 4/18. They should be able to win the other four games AND rest their key players. I’d like their chances to finish up at #2 much better if they didn’t lose at Indiana on 4/1. As is, making up two games with six to play is going to be very tough. But keep in mind, SA holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix by virtue of having won the season series 2-1.

4. Utah (48-28) - @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou

The Jazz have already clinched the Northwest Division, but home court in the first round is still up for grabs. Utah has not looked good in losing three straight after beating the Rockets in Houston. In those three games the Jazz have let the opposition shoot 49.76% (up from 45.28% this season) and have been outscored 95-66 collectively in the 4th quarter. Now Deron Williams (left groin) and Andrei Kirilenko (left thumb) are both day-to-day with no let up in sight from the schedule.

5. Houston (48-29) - & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth

Normally when coach Jeff Van Gundy complains about how his club is performing I check to see if the sun rose in the morning. But this time he might be right as the Rockets just got swept in a three game home stand from 4/1-6. Houston’s remaining schedule is difficult, but they only need to make up one game on Utah before their season finale showdown on 4/18. If the Rockets win that game, but both teams end up tied, the Jazz get home court on the second tiebreaker (conference record).

6. Denver (40-36) - LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA

I have to admit that I didn’t think the Nuggets had this kind of run in them. They are undefeated in April and have help their opponents to 43.12% shooting (down from 45.88% on the year) during their current five game winning streak. Denver’s schedule is tough, with only two “gimmies” left, but if they continue to play defense they are in.

7. Lakers (40-37) - & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac

Los Angeles’ best ball is so far behind them that it’s hard for me to even remember when I thought they looked promising. That said, it’s very tough to win games when you have a starter that is clearly not with the program anymore. It’s even more difficult when said player is your starting PG. If LA can somehow find a way to win two of their next three games that should be enough to get them in. Otherwise they *must* win their final two contests of the season. Oh yeah, and the return of Kwame Brown (left ankle) would be an enormous help.

8. Clippers (37-38) - @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC

Los Angeles has a very tough row to hoe with only two “gimmies” remaining. They also play the Hornets twice on the second nights of back-to-backs. At Dallas and at Phoenix won’t be picnics either. The Clips are really going to have to buckle down on defense and share the ball on offense consistently to make it in.

Golden State (37-40) - Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por

The Warriors will not let up and could be the favorites in every game they have left (assuming the Mavs have nothing to play for on 4/17). While most clubs are tired and beat up at this point of the year, GS is healthy and playing together for the first time. Something tells me that the race for #8 in the West is going down to the last day of the season.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City (36-41) - LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC

I know I said the Hornets were done already, and they probably are. The thing is, they have two games remaining with the Clips, one with the Nugs and no back-to-backs. It’ll take Chris Paul (left foot) and Tyson Chandler (left big toe) sucking it up, and a 5-0 closing kick, but stranger things have happened.

Saturday 4/7

> Saturday’s daily review takes us to the swamps of New Jersey where the Nets recovered nicely to beat Washington in overtime. In what was a close game all the way through, Antawn Jamison (season high 37 points) hit a 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds left to send the game into OT. NJ is now three losses behind the Wizards for #6 with six games to play.

The other story from this game was that Jason Kidd (10 points, 18 assists & 16 rebounds) and Vince Carter (46 points, 16 rebounds & 10 assists) became the fist set of teammates to record triple-doubles in the same game since 1/3/89. The last pair? Some guys named Jordan (41 points, 11 assists & 10 rebounds) and Pippen (15 points, 12 assists & 10 rebounds).

> New York got a much needed win in Milwaukee in a game that featured a crazy end to regulation. First, Ruben Patterson banked in his third 3-pointer of the season (from just left of straight away) with 0.9 seconds left to give the Bucks a three point lead. Then, Knicks coach Isiah Thomas designed a play to get Eddy Curry (career high 43 points) an open 3-point look. Curry caught the ball on the right side and raised up in one motion…swish. It was Eddy’s first three of the season (2-2 in his career) and kept NY with three losses of #8 with six games to play.

> Utah surrendered a big lead for the second time in two days, but this time it was at home. Friday night in Sacramento the Jazz blew a 17 point lead to lose by four. On this night at EnergySolutions Arena Utah gave up a 20 point lead entering the 4th quarter. The Jazz were outscored 39-16 in the final stanza and have lost three straight since beating the Rockets in Houston. Even though there is still time for Utah to get things back on track, this is no way for a contending club to perform before the playoffs.

> The Denver Nuggets certainly picked the right time of the year to go on a five game winning streak. Allen Iverson scored half his points (17) in the 4th quarter as the Nuggets outscored the Clippers 30-19 in Los Angeles. Linas Kleiza hit a 3-pointer with 15.8 seconds to play and put Denver up one. Then AI stripped the ball from Corey Maggette on the ensuing possession and proceeded to ice the game by making two free throws. LA did not lose any ground in the race for #8 though because Golden State lost in San Antonio.

> Sadly, the Atlanta Hawks were eliminated from post season contention last night. Making the current tally five teams total.

> Games of note today...

- Cleveland at Detroit on ABC
- Phoenix at Lakers on ABC
- Chicago at Toronto

Friday 4/6

> We’ll start off the daily recap in Charlotte where Indiana got a much needed win against a surging Bobcats club that had won four of it’s last five before last night. The win was just the Pacers fifth since the All-Star break (first on the road) and kept them within one loss of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East.

> I’m probably stating the obvious here, but Miami looks shaky closing games/finishing teams off without Dwyane Wade.

> New York is teetering on the post season precipice after their sixth straight loss at home to a squad with a losing record. The “streak” includes such luminaries as Seattle, New Orleans/Oklahoma City, Portland, Orlando, Philadelphia and now Minnesota. That’s not exactly how you make the playoffs when five of your last seven are on the road.

> Speaking of New Orleans/Oklahoma City (I’m so glad to almost be done typing that), they are officially *done*. With Desmond Mason needing season ending surgery on his broken nose, Chris Paul’s sore left foot, Tyson Chandler’s sore left big toe and Peja Stojakovic’s slow recovery from back surgery, they have just one opening night starter left standing. Well, there’s always next year.

> Golden State continues to roll and put pressure on Denver and the Los Angeles teams to keep winning. There are a few things for the Warriors to worry about though. One, Baron Davis took a nasty ass spill in Memphis, landing straight on his back after a dunk late in the 4th quarter. I wouldn’t be surprised if his quickness is limited for a few days. Two, Al Harrington decided that now is a good time to say he doesn’t like playing center. Even though GS has won four in a row since he moved to the pivot. Typical Al.

> It was an uneventful night in the bottom half of the Western playoff races. First Houston lost at home to Portland without Tracy McGrady & Yao Ming (sore backs). Then Utah was outscored 58-43 in the second half to lose by four in Sacramento. Wash.

Next up was Denver taking advantage of a poor Dallas shooting night and holding on for a four point victory at Pepsi Center. The Lakers followed that up by barely beating the SuperSonics in Seattle. Wash #2.

Warning, Laker rant ahoy. Smush Parker did not play in the 4th quarter for the second straight game, and deservedly so. Even Kevin Calabro & Lenny Wilkens (Seattle’s announcing tandem), both of whom are big time Sonic homers, said that Parker was killing LA with his turnovers (5 in 24 minutes) and lack of defensive intensity.

I’m liking coach Phil Jackson’s new closing five of Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom and Ronny Turiaf. They are a bit undersized in the paint on defense, and don’t always rebound well, but beggars can’t be choosers at this time of the year.

> Two more teams were officially eliminated from post season contention Friday (Milwaukee & Seattle) bringing the total to four.

> Games of note tonight…

- Washington at New Jersey
- Golden State at San Antonio
- Denver at Clippers