Nugs at Spurs & Jazz at Rockets
> I’m not going to get too much into this, but for any new readers out there I’m looking to make it four consecutive undefeated first rounds this year (it’s all documented on the MMM archives). Let’s get to it.
Denver v San Antonio – This series is all about which team can get the other to play at their tempo. Per John Hollinger’s “pace factor” (the number of possessions a team uses per game) the Nuggets are 2nd at 100.2 and the Spurs are 27th at 92.0. Those numbers underscore my point that Denver wants/needs to run and SA prefers to walk it up.
Another difference I noticed when looking at the numbers is that the Spurs are a somewhat surprising 4th overall in 3-point shooting (38.1%) while the Nugs are a lowly 28th (33.5%).
The least remarkable statistical disparity is on the defensive end where SA is 3rd overall in opponent’s field goal shooing (44.09%) and the Nugs are 16th (46.05%). That should come as a surprise to no one.
Denver has the big bodies to deal with Tim Duncan in Marcus Camby & Nene Hilario. The key for Mr. Camby & Nene is for one of them to stay out of foul trouble every game and make Duncan work for his points.
It will also be interesting to watch Allen Iverson and Tony Parker go at each other. Neither player is known as a defensive stopper, but neither is a liability on that end either. At this point in their careers I give the quickness edge to Parker. So I’m curious to see if AI gets frustrated and tries to do too much when Tony is consistently breaking him down off the dribble. Don’t get me wrong, Iverson will still get to the hoop, but I think Parker will do a better job keeping Allen in front of him than vice versa.
The biggest problem I see for the Nugs is who guards Manu Ginobili when he’s paired in the back court with TP? It can’t be AI. Steve Blake or J.R. Smith? C’mon now. I think Denver’s best chance to contain Manu is with one of my favorites, Linas “The Menace” Kleiza. Playing Linas big minutes at SG means that Iverson will be running the point more than Blake though. So it’s pick your poison there for Nugs coach George Karl.
Key Match Up – Bruce Bowen on Carmelo Anthony. I’m already on record as saying that Bowen has lost a step, but BB can still get the job done, trust me. Melo has the quick first step to get by Bruce and Anthony is also strong enough to overpower BB in the post. To have any chance of limiting Carmelo’s effectiveness Bowen will need to use every “trick” is his book and try to get into Anthony’s head.
Prediction – No squad is better at imposing it’s will than the Spurs. So the question becomes, how will Denver’s fragile chemistry hold up under playoff pressure when the game slows down? There might be an entertaining game or two along the way, but in the end SA handles their business in workmanlike fashion. Spurs in 5.
Utah v Houston – This match up is about as even as you can get, and of course I have some numbers to back that up. The Rockets are 1st overall in defensive field goal percentage (42.69%) and the Jazz 11th (45.60%). However, Utah is 1st overall in rebound differential (+5.12) and Houston is 7th (+2.62). So you’ve got the best defensive team squaring off against the best rebounding team.
But wait, there’s more.
The Jazz are 3rd league wide in overall shooting (47.27%) and the Rockets 26th (44.49%). On the other hand, Houston is 5th overall in 3-point shooting (37.3%) and Utah is 29th (33.3%). So you’ve got a club that can shoot from everywhere except distance versus a club that can’t shoot anywhere besides from deep. Weird, eh?
The correlations do not stop there either. Both squads have solid eight man rotations and control freak coaches. The difference being that the Rockets Jeff Van Gundy obsesses over his defense and Jerry Sloan dictates the Jazz offense.
This series is going to boil down to what kind of job Andrei Kirilenko does defending Tracy McGrady. AK-47 will be playing with a fractured left thumb, so he can focus all his energy on T-Mac and forget about offense. If Kirilenko can’t get the job done, the options behind him go from bad to worse. Matt Harpring & Gordan Giricek are too slow while Ronnie Brewer & C.J. Miles don’t have the experience.
Conversely Houston has a few options to deal with Utah’s top gun, Carlos Boozer. Starter Chuck Hayes has the necessary combination of quick feet and strength to check Booz. Next is Juwan Howard. What Juwan lacks in speed he makes up for in veteran guile. Then don’t forget jack-of-all-trades defender Shane Battier, who will certainly get his chance on Carlos as well
Key Match Up – Yao Ming & Memo Okur. This is a very interesting tussle between two All-Star centers that possess completely different games. Yao likes to do all his work down low where Memo prefers to float around the perimeter. This is where it gets intriguing. Will Ming put enough fouls on Okur to get him out of the game? Or does Memo consistently draw Yao outside opening up the lane for his teammates to work?
Prediction – About a month ago this was going to be an extremely tough call for me. Now, not so much. The Jazz have gone 7-12 since 3/13, the Rockets 13-4 since 3/14. You just don’t magically start playing well again when the playoffs start. That said I think this could be a competitive, albeit boring to watch, series. Houston in 7.
> One game of note tonight.....Orlando at Washington
Denver v San Antonio – This series is all about which team can get the other to play at their tempo. Per John Hollinger’s “pace factor” (the number of possessions a team uses per game) the Nuggets are 2nd at 100.2 and the Spurs are 27th at 92.0. Those numbers underscore my point that Denver wants/needs to run and SA prefers to walk it up.
Another difference I noticed when looking at the numbers is that the Spurs are a somewhat surprising 4th overall in 3-point shooting (38.1%) while the Nugs are a lowly 28th (33.5%).
The least remarkable statistical disparity is on the defensive end where SA is 3rd overall in opponent’s field goal shooing (44.09%) and the Nugs are 16th (46.05%). That should come as a surprise to no one.
Denver has the big bodies to deal with Tim Duncan in Marcus Camby & Nene Hilario. The key for Mr. Camby & Nene is for one of them to stay out of foul trouble every game and make Duncan work for his points.
It will also be interesting to watch Allen Iverson and Tony Parker go at each other. Neither player is known as a defensive stopper, but neither is a liability on that end either. At this point in their careers I give the quickness edge to Parker. So I’m curious to see if AI gets frustrated and tries to do too much when Tony is consistently breaking him down off the dribble. Don’t get me wrong, Iverson will still get to the hoop, but I think Parker will do a better job keeping Allen in front of him than vice versa.
The biggest problem I see for the Nugs is who guards Manu Ginobili when he’s paired in the back court with TP? It can’t be AI. Steve Blake or J.R. Smith? C’mon now. I think Denver’s best chance to contain Manu is with one of my favorites, Linas “The Menace” Kleiza. Playing Linas big minutes at SG means that Iverson will be running the point more than Blake though. So it’s pick your poison there for Nugs coach George Karl.
Key Match Up – Bruce Bowen on Carmelo Anthony. I’m already on record as saying that Bowen has lost a step, but BB can still get the job done, trust me. Melo has the quick first step to get by Bruce and Anthony is also strong enough to overpower BB in the post. To have any chance of limiting Carmelo’s effectiveness Bowen will need to use every “trick” is his book and try to get into Anthony’s head.
Prediction – No squad is better at imposing it’s will than the Spurs. So the question becomes, how will Denver’s fragile chemistry hold up under playoff pressure when the game slows down? There might be an entertaining game or two along the way, but in the end SA handles their business in workmanlike fashion. Spurs in 5.
Utah v Houston – This match up is about as even as you can get, and of course I have some numbers to back that up. The Rockets are 1st overall in defensive field goal percentage (42.69%) and the Jazz 11th (45.60%). However, Utah is 1st overall in rebound differential (+5.12) and Houston is 7th (+2.62). So you’ve got the best defensive team squaring off against the best rebounding team.
But wait, there’s more.
The Jazz are 3rd league wide in overall shooting (47.27%) and the Rockets 26th (44.49%). On the other hand, Houston is 5th overall in 3-point shooting (37.3%) and Utah is 29th (33.3%). So you’ve got a club that can shoot from everywhere except distance versus a club that can’t shoot anywhere besides from deep. Weird, eh?
The correlations do not stop there either. Both squads have solid eight man rotations and control freak coaches. The difference being that the Rockets Jeff Van Gundy obsesses over his defense and Jerry Sloan dictates the Jazz offense.
This series is going to boil down to what kind of job Andrei Kirilenko does defending Tracy McGrady. AK-47 will be playing with a fractured left thumb, so he can focus all his energy on T-Mac and forget about offense. If Kirilenko can’t get the job done, the options behind him go from bad to worse. Matt Harpring & Gordan Giricek are too slow while Ronnie Brewer & C.J. Miles don’t have the experience.
Conversely Houston has a few options to deal with Utah’s top gun, Carlos Boozer. Starter Chuck Hayes has the necessary combination of quick feet and strength to check Booz. Next is Juwan Howard. What Juwan lacks in speed he makes up for in veteran guile. Then don’t forget jack-of-all-trades defender Shane Battier, who will certainly get his chance on Carlos as well
Key Match Up – Yao Ming & Memo Okur. This is a very interesting tussle between two All-Star centers that possess completely different games. Yao likes to do all his work down low where Memo prefers to float around the perimeter. This is where it gets intriguing. Will Ming put enough fouls on Okur to get him out of the game? Or does Memo consistently draw Yao outside opening up the lane for his teammates to work?
Prediction – About a month ago this was going to be an extremely tough call for me. Now, not so much. The Jazz have gone 7-12 since 3/13, the Rockets 13-4 since 3/14. You just don’t magically start playing well again when the playoffs start. That said I think this could be a competitive, albeit boring to watch, series. Houston in 7.
> One game of note tonight.....Orlando at Washington
posted by D$ at 10:30 PM
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