Playoff Race Update
The Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs from top to bottom, but I do expect three under .500 squads to make the post season when it’s all said and done. The West is more set, but there are still plenty of interesting races worth watching in the NBA’s power conference.
EAST
(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)
1. Detroit (49-27) - & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos
Things are still looking good for the Pistons to have home court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs. In fact, they should wrap it up sometime this week. That said, there is something off with Detroit recently. I know it’s not showing up in the standings, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pistons can be beaten in a seven game series before the Finals.
2. Chicago (46-32) - NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ
The Bulls split the season series with the Cavs, but are #2 based on the second tiebreaker (division record). Chicago will be favored to win all of their remaining games, but none of them figure to be easy. The Bulls have been playing very well as of late buoyed by contributions from both of their rookies (Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha). I’ve been saying all along that Chi-town will be very dangerous come playoff time, and nothing has changed my mind yet.
3. Toronto (44-33) - & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl
The Raptors are a squad that plays together under any circumstances. Toronto also has great chemistry which seems to lead to a different guy playing big almost every night. (Coach Sam Mitchell deserves credit for all of that BTW.) Other than their two games left versus Detroit, the Raps should be favored to win the rest. It’s also a possibility that the Pistons are on cruise control (having already clinched #1) when they meet. T-Dot is going to need some help to reach #2 because they lose the tiebreaker to both the Bulls and the Cavs.
4. Miami (42-35) - @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl
The Heat have the Southeast Division all but wrapped up. However, the boys from South Beach are staring straight down the barrel of not having home court advantage in any of the series’ they play in the post season. I’m sure that doesn’t phase them, but at the same time they have to know how much more difficult that makes the road to repeat. The key question with Miami is how much can Dwyane Wade really give them? If the answer is like 65% of normal, they’ll be fine. Anything less than 65% and the Heat will be lucky to see the Conference Finals.
5. Cleveland (46-32) - NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil
The Cavaliers are only 5-7 since 3/20 with losses to Charlotte (by 8 in OT), New York (by 4) and Boston (by 2) included in that stretch. I see no reason why Cleveland shouldn’t easily win the rest of their games too. Catching Detroit is now out of the question, so the least the Cavs can do for themselves is to put some pressure on the Bulls to win out. All is not lost for LeBron James and company though, since they will have home court advantage in the first round at #5 barring an unforeseen collapse.
6. Washington (39-37) - NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind
After losing both Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler (right hand) for the season the Wizards have predictably gone into a tailspin. Antawn Jamison has stepped up and led Washington in scoring (29.7 ppg) in every game since GA got hurt. Likewise, Antonio Daniels has led them in assists (13 apg) the last three games. None of that matters though because the Wiz only have one “gimmie” left and don’t have near the depth needed to sustain losing their top two players.
7. New Jersey (36-40) - @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi
The Nets haven’t really done anything to impress me down the stretch, but I just have a feeling about them for some reason. I even think they can still pass the Wiz for #6. NJ isn’t a great team by any means, but they are a playoff tested group that tends to win the games they should. A first round match up versus the Raps would be very interesting.
8. Orlando (35-41) - @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia
The Magic have been terribly inconsistent all year and that trend shows no sign of abating in the season’s last ten days. Orlando plays four of their next five away from home where they are a wretched 12-25. The Magic have two things going for them as I see it. One, they are relatively healthy. Two, Dwight Howard has subtly demanded more touches recently. Orlando must make their one game lead stick because they lose the tiebreaker to everyone.
Indiana (34-42) - @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh
Normally winning two games in a row doesn’t qualify as a story, but when you’ve won only six times since the All-Star break as the Pacers have, it does. While Indy is certainly still in contention for #8, they also play four of their next five on the road where they too are a paltry 12-25. Going .500 the rest of the way might be enough, but with Jermaine O’Neal (left knee, ankle), Jamaal Tinsley (right elbow) and Jeff Foster (back) all day-to-day, even that might be too much to ask.
New York (32-44) - Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr
I’m probably being kind here by still giving the Knicks a shot to qualify for the post season, but they do have two games left against the Nets. Realistically though, with their schedule and Stephon Marbury (right toe), David Lee (right leg) and Steve Francis (right ankle) all day-to-day, it’s only a matter of time.
WEST
1. Dallas (63-13) - LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea
One more win and the Mavericks clinch home court throughout the playoffs. I’m thinking it’s a fait accompli. I see no reason for them to play Josh Howard (right ankle) or Erick Dampier (right shoulder) at all, and Dirk Nowitzki & Jason Terry should also get plenty of rest (if a fake injury or two can’t be invented). The reason I say this is because with Avery Johnson as their coach I’m not worried about Dallas losing their edge any time soon.
2. Phoenix (58-19) - Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC
After the Suns play Seattle on 4/11 they close the season with two separate back-to-backs against clubs that will all *need* wins for playoff positioning. With Phoenix still in their own race for #2, this means Steve Nash, Shawn Marion (right hand) and Boris Diaw (back) will not be getting any significant rest prior to the post season. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to see the Suns get pushed to seven games in the first round, regardless of opponent.
3. San Antonio (55-21) - Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den
The Spurs closing stretch is pretty much a cake walk, with the exception of Dallas on 4/15 and Denver on 4/18. They should be able to win the other four games AND rest their key players. I’d like their chances to finish up at #2 much better if they didn’t lose at Indiana on 4/1. As is, making up two games with six to play is going to be very tough. But keep in mind, SA holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix by virtue of having won the season series 2-1.
4. Utah (48-28) - @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou
The Jazz have already clinched the Northwest Division, but home court in the first round is still up for grabs. Utah has not looked good in losing three straight after beating the Rockets in Houston. In those three games the Jazz have let the opposition shoot 49.76% (up from 45.28% this season) and have been outscored 95-66 collectively in the 4th quarter. Now Deron Williams (left groin) and Andrei Kirilenko (left thumb) are both day-to-day with no let up in sight from the schedule.
5. Houston (48-29) - & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth
Normally when coach Jeff Van Gundy complains about how his club is performing I check to see if the sun rose in the morning. But this time he might be right as the Rockets just got swept in a three game home stand from 4/1-6. Houston’s remaining schedule is difficult, but they only need to make up one game on Utah before their season finale showdown on 4/18. If the Rockets win that game, but both teams end up tied, the Jazz get home court on the second tiebreaker (conference record).
6. Denver (40-36) - LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA
I have to admit that I didn’t think the Nuggets had this kind of run in them. They are undefeated in April and have help their opponents to 43.12% shooting (down from 45.88% on the year) during their current five game winning streak. Denver’s schedule is tough, with only two “gimmies” left, but if they continue to play defense they are in.
7. Lakers (40-37) - & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac
Los Angeles’ best ball is so far behind them that it’s hard for me to even remember when I thought they looked promising. That said, it’s very tough to win games when you have a starter that is clearly not with the program anymore. It’s even more difficult when said player is your starting PG. If LA can somehow find a way to win two of their next three games that should be enough to get them in. Otherwise they *must* win their final two contests of the season. Oh yeah, and the return of Kwame Brown (left ankle) would be an enormous help.
8. Clippers (37-38) - @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC
Los Angeles has a very tough row to hoe with only two “gimmies” remaining. They also play the Hornets twice on the second nights of back-to-backs. At Dallas and at Phoenix won’t be picnics either. The Clips are really going to have to buckle down on defense and share the ball on offense consistently to make it in.
Golden State (37-40) - Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por
The Warriors will not let up and could be the favorites in every game they have left (assuming the Mavs have nothing to play for on 4/17). While most clubs are tired and beat up at this point of the year, GS is healthy and playing together for the first time. Something tells me that the race for #8 in the West is going down to the last day of the season.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (36-41) - LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC
I know I said the Hornets were done already, and they probably are. The thing is, they have two games remaining with the Clips, one with the Nugs and no back-to-backs. It’ll take Chris Paul (left foot) and Tyson Chandler (left big toe) sucking it up, and a 5-0 closing kick, but stranger things have happened.
EAST
(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)
1. Detroit (49-27) - & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos
Things are still looking good for the Pistons to have home court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs. In fact, they should wrap it up sometime this week. That said, there is something off with Detroit recently. I know it’s not showing up in the standings, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pistons can be beaten in a seven game series before the Finals.
2. Chicago (46-32) - NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ
The Bulls split the season series with the Cavs, but are #2 based on the second tiebreaker (division record). Chicago will be favored to win all of their remaining games, but none of them figure to be easy. The Bulls have been playing very well as of late buoyed by contributions from both of their rookies (Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha). I’ve been saying all along that Chi-town will be very dangerous come playoff time, and nothing has changed my mind yet.
3. Toronto (44-33) - & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl
The Raptors are a squad that plays together under any circumstances. Toronto also has great chemistry which seems to lead to a different guy playing big almost every night. (Coach Sam Mitchell deserves credit for all of that BTW.) Other than their two games left versus Detroit, the Raps should be favored to win the rest. It’s also a possibility that the Pistons are on cruise control (having already clinched #1) when they meet. T-Dot is going to need some help to reach #2 because they lose the tiebreaker to both the Bulls and the Cavs.
4. Miami (42-35) - @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl
The Heat have the Southeast Division all but wrapped up. However, the boys from South Beach are staring straight down the barrel of not having home court advantage in any of the series’ they play in the post season. I’m sure that doesn’t phase them, but at the same time they have to know how much more difficult that makes the road to repeat. The key question with Miami is how much can Dwyane Wade really give them? If the answer is like 65% of normal, they’ll be fine. Anything less than 65% and the Heat will be lucky to see the Conference Finals.
5. Cleveland (46-32) - NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil
The Cavaliers are only 5-7 since 3/20 with losses to Charlotte (by 8 in OT), New York (by 4) and Boston (by 2) included in that stretch. I see no reason why Cleveland shouldn’t easily win the rest of their games too. Catching Detroit is now out of the question, so the least the Cavs can do for themselves is to put some pressure on the Bulls to win out. All is not lost for LeBron James and company though, since they will have home court advantage in the first round at #5 barring an unforeseen collapse.
6. Washington (39-37) - NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind
After losing both Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler (right hand) for the season the Wizards have predictably gone into a tailspin. Antawn Jamison has stepped up and led Washington in scoring (29.7 ppg) in every game since GA got hurt. Likewise, Antonio Daniels has led them in assists (13 apg) the last three games. None of that matters though because the Wiz only have one “gimmie” left and don’t have near the depth needed to sustain losing their top two players.
7. New Jersey (36-40) - @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi
The Nets haven’t really done anything to impress me down the stretch, but I just have a feeling about them for some reason. I even think they can still pass the Wiz for #6. NJ isn’t a great team by any means, but they are a playoff tested group that tends to win the games they should. A first round match up versus the Raps would be very interesting.
8. Orlando (35-41) - @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia
The Magic have been terribly inconsistent all year and that trend shows no sign of abating in the season’s last ten days. Orlando plays four of their next five away from home where they are a wretched 12-25. The Magic have two things going for them as I see it. One, they are relatively healthy. Two, Dwight Howard has subtly demanded more touches recently. Orlando must make their one game lead stick because they lose the tiebreaker to everyone.
Indiana (34-42) - @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh
Normally winning two games in a row doesn’t qualify as a story, but when you’ve won only six times since the All-Star break as the Pacers have, it does. While Indy is certainly still in contention for #8, they also play four of their next five on the road where they too are a paltry 12-25. Going .500 the rest of the way might be enough, but with Jermaine O’Neal (left knee, ankle), Jamaal Tinsley (right elbow) and Jeff Foster (back) all day-to-day, even that might be too much to ask.
New York (32-44) - Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr
I’m probably being kind here by still giving the Knicks a shot to qualify for the post season, but they do have two games left against the Nets. Realistically though, with their schedule and Stephon Marbury (right toe), David Lee (right leg) and Steve Francis (right ankle) all day-to-day, it’s only a matter of time.
WEST
1. Dallas (63-13) - LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea
One more win and the Mavericks clinch home court throughout the playoffs. I’m thinking it’s a fait accompli. I see no reason for them to play Josh Howard (right ankle) or Erick Dampier (right shoulder) at all, and Dirk Nowitzki & Jason Terry should also get plenty of rest (if a fake injury or two can’t be invented). The reason I say this is because with Avery Johnson as their coach I’m not worried about Dallas losing their edge any time soon.
2. Phoenix (58-19) - Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC
After the Suns play Seattle on 4/11 they close the season with two separate back-to-backs against clubs that will all *need* wins for playoff positioning. With Phoenix still in their own race for #2, this means Steve Nash, Shawn Marion (right hand) and Boris Diaw (back) will not be getting any significant rest prior to the post season. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to see the Suns get pushed to seven games in the first round, regardless of opponent.
3. San Antonio (55-21) - Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den
The Spurs closing stretch is pretty much a cake walk, with the exception of Dallas on 4/15 and Denver on 4/18. They should be able to win the other four games AND rest their key players. I’d like their chances to finish up at #2 much better if they didn’t lose at Indiana on 4/1. As is, making up two games with six to play is going to be very tough. But keep in mind, SA holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix by virtue of having won the season series 2-1.
4. Utah (48-28) - @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou
The Jazz have already clinched the Northwest Division, but home court in the first round is still up for grabs. Utah has not looked good in losing three straight after beating the Rockets in Houston. In those three games the Jazz have let the opposition shoot 49.76% (up from 45.28% this season) and have been outscored 95-66 collectively in the 4th quarter. Now Deron Williams (left groin) and Andrei Kirilenko (left thumb) are both day-to-day with no let up in sight from the schedule.
5. Houston (48-29) - & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth
Normally when coach Jeff Van Gundy complains about how his club is performing I check to see if the sun rose in the morning. But this time he might be right as the Rockets just got swept in a three game home stand from 4/1-6. Houston’s remaining schedule is difficult, but they only need to make up one game on Utah before their season finale showdown on 4/18. If the Rockets win that game, but both teams end up tied, the Jazz get home court on the second tiebreaker (conference record).
6. Denver (40-36) - LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA
I have to admit that I didn’t think the Nuggets had this kind of run in them. They are undefeated in April and have help their opponents to 43.12% shooting (down from 45.88% on the year) during their current five game winning streak. Denver’s schedule is tough, with only two “gimmies” left, but if they continue to play defense they are in.
7. Lakers (40-37) - & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac
Los Angeles’ best ball is so far behind them that it’s hard for me to even remember when I thought they looked promising. That said, it’s very tough to win games when you have a starter that is clearly not with the program anymore. It’s even more difficult when said player is your starting PG. If LA can somehow find a way to win two of their next three games that should be enough to get them in. Otherwise they *must* win their final two contests of the season. Oh yeah, and the return of Kwame Brown (left ankle) would be an enormous help.
8. Clippers (37-38) - @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC
Los Angeles has a very tough row to hoe with only two “gimmies” remaining. They also play the Hornets twice on the second nights of back-to-backs. At Dallas and at Phoenix won’t be picnics either. The Clips are really going to have to buckle down on defense and share the ball on offense consistently to make it in.
Golden State (37-40) - Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por
The Warriors will not let up and could be the favorites in every game they have left (assuming the Mavs have nothing to play for on 4/17). While most clubs are tired and beat up at this point of the year, GS is healthy and playing together for the first time. Something tells me that the race for #8 in the West is going down to the last day of the season.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (36-41) - LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC
I know I said the Hornets were done already, and they probably are. The thing is, they have two games remaining with the Clips, one with the Nugs and no back-to-backs. It’ll take Chris Paul (left foot) and Tyson Chandler (left big toe) sucking it up, and a 5-0 closing kick, but stranger things have happened.
posted by D$ at 8:24 PM
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