Playoff Races
I do realize that I haven’t been exactly diligent in my postings as of late. I’m sorry for that, but it has become increasingly difficult for me to get quality screen time ever since my wife discovered myspace. In spite of this, I plan on upping my output once the playoffs begin. I’m hoping to have at least a little something for consumption on a daily basis. We shall see…
As for this week, I’m going to break down the races for post season positioning and home court advantage in each conference. The East has far more up for grabs than the West does, but each Conference has a few interesting races.
EAST
(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)
1. Detroit (47-26) - @Ind & Chi, Cle & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos
The Pistons schedule is tough in that they only have two games left against teams with nothing to play for. And, truth be told, Detroit hasn’t looked all that great recently either. But with a four game lead in the loss column, the Pistons would have to completely meltdown to lose the #1 seed.
2. Cleveland (44-30) - @Min, Mia & @Wsh, @Det, NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil
LeBron James has certainly picked up his play lately, but the Cavaliers remain frustratingly inconsistent. They continue to follow up quality wins with unconscionable losses. Catching Detroit is probably not in the cards, but the #2 spot is theirs to lose. Cleveland must be careful and finish up strong because a few more missteps could mean a drop to #5. Thus raising the possibly of Miami in round one. GULP.
3. Toronto (41-32) - @Mia & @Orl, @Phl, Chi & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl
The Raptors continue to impress me. I’ll be honest, I thought they were dead in the water after losing both Andrea Bargnani (appendectomy) and Jorge Garbajosa (left ankle/leg). That’s two guys out of their top six, but somehow T-Dot continues to roll. Now it looks like Bargnani could be available for the playoffs, which is great news for them. I don’t think the Raps can move up to #2 with their schedule, but having home court in the first round is a realistic goal.
4. Washington (39-33) - @Chr & Chr, Cle & @NJ, NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind
Losing All-Star Caron Butler for six weeks to a broken right hand is a huge blow for the Wizards. Washington isn’t that deep a squad to begin with, and they can ill afford to be without one of their “Big 3” (2-7 without Caron this season) for the stretch run. The capper is that their schedule is brutal the rest of the way. Even the upcoming home & home with the Bobcats won’t be a cake walk. I foresee Washington finishing up at #6.
5. Chicago (44-31) - @Det, NJ, @Tor, NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ
Watch out for running of the Bulls! After talking up their prospects all season long, I kind of backed off them with a month to go. I’m back on Chicago now. Look, they can’t win the Championship, but they could certainly represent the East in the Finals. I mean, if they can beat Detroit and Toronto on the road, I could see the Bulls winning out to end up at #2. The return of Andres Nocioni (plantar fasciitis, right foot) for the playoffs will be HUGE for them.
6. Miami (39-34) - Tor, @Cle & @Bos, Chr, @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl
Dwyane Wade was back at practice today (4/2) and hopes to play in “a game or two” before the post season begins. When the Heat are led by Shaquille O’Neal they tend to coast against inferior clubs. Sometimes they even turn the switch to off *during* games in which they have a big lead. This is exactly why Miami won’t finish in the top two of the East, meaning they will have to start round two on the road. Nevertheless, with the problems the teams above them are having a division title and #3 is well within reach for the Heat.
7. New Jersey (34-39) - Atl, @Chi & Wsh, @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi
The Nets closing stretch is brutal with three sets of back-to-backs against all playoff contenders and only one game remaining versus a team with nothing to play for. Not a good thing for a club that’s as wildly inconsistent as NJ is. Their combined experience should be enough to get them in, but make no mistake, the Nets are not a good team. President Rod Thorn is kidding himself if he thinks the return of Nenad Krstic next season is going to fix this mess. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, the middle is no place to be in the NBA.
8. Orlando (34-40) - Tor, Mem, @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia
The Magic have been a major disappointment to me this season, but as long as they make the playoffs all will be forgiven. I think that 4-4 would be good enough to get them in. The problem is that they’ll most likely end up going 3-5 or worse. Making at least one of their season ending back-to-back with division rivals Washington and Miami a *must* win. If Orlando finishes up 0-2 they are going to need some “help” from the squads below them.
Indiana (32-41) - Det, @Chr & Bos, @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh
The Pacers have been in a free fall since the All-Star break going a pathetic 4-17. Being that Jermaine O’Neal is also gimpy at best with a sore left knee, I’m not liking Indy’s chances very much. Their schedule is only marginally difficult, but with the way they have been playing, no game is a gimmie. The Pacers need to be blown up BIG time this summer. Trade JO & Jamaal Tinsley, fire coach Rick Carlisle and just start over already because the status quo isn’t working.
New York (31-42) - Phl, Min & @Mil, Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr
The Knicks will probably have to go at least 6-3 the rest of the way to get in. Not very likely, but not impossible either. Steve Francis going down (right ankle) doesn’t help matters, but the player NY really needs back in the worst way is David Lee. There’s no timetable on Lee’s return (right leg), but it doesn’t look good. It will be interesting to hear the spin coming from the Garden offices if the Knicks don’t make the playoffs, because as far as I can tell, this exact same group (more or less) will be back next season.
WEST
1. Dallas (61-12) - @Sac, @Den & Por, LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea
Unless their team plane goes down or something else of that ilk happens, there’s no way the Mavericks don’t end up with home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
2. Phoenix (55-18) - @Mem, @SA & @NO/OKC, @LAL, Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC
The Suns have been struggling recently (5-4 in last nine games) and badly needed that win *in* Dallas to restore some of their swagger. The only difference I’ve noticed is that Shawn Marion hasn’t been the same since he hurt his right hand on 2/27. This should give credence to those of you that think the Matrix is really the MVP in Phoenix. The Suns closing schedule is extremely tough, with the game in San Antonio looming large as the tiebreaker between the teams if they finish with the same record.
3. San Antonio (52-21) - Sea, Phx, GS, Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den
Their recent loss to a flagging Indiana squad could come back to haunt them, as it looked like the Spurs were poised to overtake Phoenix up at #2. SA still has a shot to do it of course, but they may have to win out in order to get the job done. Which is not impossible since the Spurs only have two tests left…4/5 with the Suns and 4/15 *in* Dallas.
4. Utah (48-25) - @Por, @Sac & Sea, @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou
The Jazz are looking pretty solid at #4 if they take care of business. However, if they are not locked in by the time they play Dallas & Phoenix back-to-back, their final tilt against Houston could be IMMENSE! If that game is for home court in the first round, it would almost be like an eight game series to advance to play the Mavs.
5. Houston (47-27) - GS, Por, @Sac & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth
The Rockets losing to Utah on 4/1 pretty much assured them of finishing up at #5. Since the Jazz now hold the tiebreaker, Houston will likely have to win out to get home court in the first round. That’s probably too much to ask, but not impossible given their schedule.
6. Lakers (39-34) - Den & @LAC, @Sea, Phx & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac
As long as Los Angeles wins its remaining two games against Denver, #6 is theirs. On the other hand, if the Lakers split with the Nuggets & Clippers, and are swept by Phoenix, all bets are off. That’s right, it’s not inconceivable that the Lakers miss the playoffs entirely. LA *must* sweep Seattle and dispatch Sacramento on the final day of the season, or things will get even more dicey for them.
7. Denver (36-36) - @LAL & Sac, Dal & @LAC, LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA
The Nuggets are a complete Jekyll & Hyde club. They can look great for a quarter or even a half sometimes, but they are also prone to lavish displays of ineptitude over the same periods. 5-5 to close the season and a .500 record overall probably assures them no worse than #8. Then again, I only count three gimmies remaining on their schedule, so the much ballyhooed Allen Iverson – Carmelo Anthony duo could still end up lottery bound.
8. Clippers (36-37) - LAL, Den, @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC
The other Los Angeles is playing their best ball of the season at the right time. It’s amazing to think that PG Jason Hart couldn’t get off the bench in Sacramento, since he’s basically saved the Clippers bacon. Coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. finally gave up and inserted Corey Maggette into his starting lineup. That, along with shortening the rotation, has really turned LA around. Their schedule is pretty tough the rest of the way, but 5-4 (beating Denver) should be enough to get in.
Golden State (35-39) - @Hou, @Mem & @SA, Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por
The Warriors might be the sheik pick to jump up and grab #8 with the way they are playing at the moment, but you have to remember that they are an absolutely awful 8-28 on the road. 6-2 is the bare minimum that it would take for GS to have the slightest of chances at the post season. Even then, they’d probably need some “help”. I don’t know about you, but I see three losses easily on their schedule.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (33-40) - @Mil & Sea, Phx & @Min, LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC
It’s going to take a miracle for the Hornets to make the playoffs. First off, they’d have to go at least 8-1 the rest of the way to actually be in the running. Anything less than that, and NO/OKC would need some *major* “help”. Furthermore, with Peja Stojakovic having a setback in his rehab (back), and Chris Paul at less than 100% (left foot), it’s just not in the cards for the Hornets this year.
As for this week, I’m going to break down the races for post season positioning and home court advantage in each conference. The East has far more up for grabs than the West does, but each Conference has a few interesting races.
EAST
(Back-to-back games have an “&” in between them.)
1. Detroit (47-26) - @Ind & Chi, Cle & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos
The Pistons schedule is tough in that they only have two games left against teams with nothing to play for. And, truth be told, Detroit hasn’t looked all that great recently either. But with a four game lead in the loss column, the Pistons would have to completely meltdown to lose the #1 seed.
2. Cleveland (44-30) - @Min, Mia & @Wsh, @Det, NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil
LeBron James has certainly picked up his play lately, but the Cavaliers remain frustratingly inconsistent. They continue to follow up quality wins with unconscionable losses. Catching Detroit is probably not in the cards, but the #2 spot is theirs to lose. Cleveland must be careful and finish up strong because a few more missteps could mean a drop to #5. Thus raising the possibly of Miami in round one. GULP.
3. Toronto (41-32) - @Mia & @Orl, @Phl, Chi & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl
The Raptors continue to impress me. I’ll be honest, I thought they were dead in the water after losing both Andrea Bargnani (appendectomy) and Jorge Garbajosa (left ankle/leg). That’s two guys out of their top six, but somehow T-Dot continues to roll. Now it looks like Bargnani could be available for the playoffs, which is great news for them. I don’t think the Raps can move up to #2 with their schedule, but having home court in the first round is a realistic goal.
4. Washington (39-33) - @Chr & Chr, Cle & @NJ, NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind
Losing All-Star Caron Butler for six weeks to a broken right hand is a huge blow for the Wizards. Washington isn’t that deep a squad to begin with, and they can ill afford to be without one of their “Big 3” (2-7 without Caron this season) for the stretch run. The capper is that their schedule is brutal the rest of the way. Even the upcoming home & home with the Bobcats won’t be a cake walk. I foresee Washington finishing up at #6.
5. Chicago (44-31) - @Det, NJ, @Tor, NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ
Watch out for running of the Bulls! After talking up their prospects all season long, I kind of backed off them with a month to go. I’m back on Chicago now. Look, they can’t win the Championship, but they could certainly represent the East in the Finals. I mean, if they can beat Detroit and Toronto on the road, I could see the Bulls winning out to end up at #2. The return of Andres Nocioni (plantar fasciitis, right foot) for the playoffs will be HUGE for them.
6. Miami (39-34) - Tor, @Cle & @Bos, Chr, @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl
Dwyane Wade was back at practice today (4/2) and hopes to play in “a game or two” before the post season begins. When the Heat are led by Shaquille O’Neal they tend to coast against inferior clubs. Sometimes they even turn the switch to off *during* games in which they have a big lead. This is exactly why Miami won’t finish in the top two of the East, meaning they will have to start round two on the road. Nevertheless, with the problems the teams above them are having a division title and #3 is well within reach for the Heat.
7. New Jersey (34-39) - Atl, @Chi & Wsh, @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi
The Nets closing stretch is brutal with three sets of back-to-backs against all playoff contenders and only one game remaining versus a team with nothing to play for. Not a good thing for a club that’s as wildly inconsistent as NJ is. Their combined experience should be enough to get them in, but make no mistake, the Nets are not a good team. President Rod Thorn is kidding himself if he thinks the return of Nenad Krstic next season is going to fix this mess. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, the middle is no place to be in the NBA.
8. Orlando (34-40) - Tor, Mem, @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia
The Magic have been a major disappointment to me this season, but as long as they make the playoffs all will be forgiven. I think that 4-4 would be good enough to get them in. The problem is that they’ll most likely end up going 3-5 or worse. Making at least one of their season ending back-to-back with division rivals Washington and Miami a *must* win. If Orlando finishes up 0-2 they are going to need some “help” from the squads below them.
Indiana (32-41) - Det, @Chr & Bos, @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh
The Pacers have been in a free fall since the All-Star break going a pathetic 4-17. Being that Jermaine O’Neal is also gimpy at best with a sore left knee, I’m not liking Indy’s chances very much. Their schedule is only marginally difficult, but with the way they have been playing, no game is a gimmie. The Pacers need to be blown up BIG time this summer. Trade JO & Jamaal Tinsley, fire coach Rick Carlisle and just start over already because the status quo isn’t working.
New York (31-42) - Phl, Min & @Mil, Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr
The Knicks will probably have to go at least 6-3 the rest of the way to get in. Not very likely, but not impossible either. Steve Francis going down (right ankle) doesn’t help matters, but the player NY really needs back in the worst way is David Lee. There’s no timetable on Lee’s return (right leg), but it doesn’t look good. It will be interesting to hear the spin coming from the Garden offices if the Knicks don’t make the playoffs, because as far as I can tell, this exact same group (more or less) will be back next season.
WEST
1. Dallas (61-12) - @Sac, @Den & Por, LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea
Unless their team plane goes down or something else of that ilk happens, there’s no way the Mavericks don’t end up with home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
2. Phoenix (55-18) - @Mem, @SA & @NO/OKC, @LAL, Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC
The Suns have been struggling recently (5-4 in last nine games) and badly needed that win *in* Dallas to restore some of their swagger. The only difference I’ve noticed is that Shawn Marion hasn’t been the same since he hurt his right hand on 2/27. This should give credence to those of you that think the Matrix is really the MVP in Phoenix. The Suns closing schedule is extremely tough, with the game in San Antonio looming large as the tiebreaker between the teams if they finish with the same record.
3. San Antonio (52-21) - Sea, Phx, GS, Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den
Their recent loss to a flagging Indiana squad could come back to haunt them, as it looked like the Spurs were poised to overtake Phoenix up at #2. SA still has a shot to do it of course, but they may have to win out in order to get the job done. Which is not impossible since the Spurs only have two tests left…4/5 with the Suns and 4/15 *in* Dallas.
4. Utah (48-25) - @Por, @Sac & Sea, @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou
The Jazz are looking pretty solid at #4 if they take care of business. However, if they are not locked in by the time they play Dallas & Phoenix back-to-back, their final tilt against Houston could be IMMENSE! If that game is for home court in the first round, it would almost be like an eight game series to advance to play the Mavs.
5. Houston (47-27) - GS, Por, @Sac & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth
The Rockets losing to Utah on 4/1 pretty much assured them of finishing up at #5. Since the Jazz now hold the tiebreaker, Houston will likely have to win out to get home court in the first round. That’s probably too much to ask, but not impossible given their schedule.
6. Lakers (39-34) - Den & @LAC, @Sea, Phx & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac
As long as Los Angeles wins its remaining two games against Denver, #6 is theirs. On the other hand, if the Lakers split with the Nuggets & Clippers, and are swept by Phoenix, all bets are off. That’s right, it’s not inconceivable that the Lakers miss the playoffs entirely. LA *must* sweep Seattle and dispatch Sacramento on the final day of the season, or things will get even more dicey for them.
7. Denver (36-36) - @LAL & Sac, Dal & @LAC, LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA
The Nuggets are a complete Jekyll & Hyde club. They can look great for a quarter or even a half sometimes, but they are also prone to lavish displays of ineptitude over the same periods. 5-5 to close the season and a .500 record overall probably assures them no worse than #8. Then again, I only count three gimmies remaining on their schedule, so the much ballyhooed Allen Iverson – Carmelo Anthony duo could still end up lottery bound.
8. Clippers (36-37) - LAL, Den, @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC
The other Los Angeles is playing their best ball of the season at the right time. It’s amazing to think that PG Jason Hart couldn’t get off the bench in Sacramento, since he’s basically saved the Clippers bacon. Coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. finally gave up and inserted Corey Maggette into his starting lineup. That, along with shortening the rotation, has really turned LA around. Their schedule is pretty tough the rest of the way, but 5-4 (beating Denver) should be enough to get in.
Golden State (35-39) - @Hou, @Mem & @SA, Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por
The Warriors might be the sheik pick to jump up and grab #8 with the way they are playing at the moment, but you have to remember that they are an absolutely awful 8-28 on the road. 6-2 is the bare minimum that it would take for GS to have the slightest of chances at the post season. Even then, they’d probably need some “help”. I don’t know about you, but I see three losses easily on their schedule.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (33-40) - @Mil & Sea, Phx & @Min, LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC
It’s going to take a miracle for the Hornets to make the playoffs. First off, they’d have to go at least 8-1 the rest of the way to actually be in the running. Anything less than that, and NO/OKC would need some *major* “help”. Furthermore, with Peja Stojakovic having a setback in his rehab (back), and Chris Paul at less than 100% (left foot), it’s just not in the cards for the Hornets this year.
posted by D$ at 6:38 PM
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