Mid-Season Report

Since the Denver Nuggets finally played their 41st game on 1/27, it’s now time for the fourth annual ‘Mid-Season Report’. The gap between the conferences has never been greater, but the competition within each conference itself is still really tough. So, without further ado…

(*Teams I had making the playoffs before the season.)

EAST

1. *Washington Wizards (26-17)
Good – They lead their division, are 2nd in the league in scoring (107.19 ppg) and have a legitimate MVP candidate in Gilbert Arenas.

Bad – Their center rotation of Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas continues to disappoint.

Rookie – None.

Outlook – It’s hard for me to take the Wiz seriously when they play no defense (26th in opponent’s field goal percentage [OPPFG%] at 46.9%) and can’t rebound (25th in rebound differential [REBDIFF] at -2.90). That said, this squad should have no problems making the second round in the East.

2. *Detroit Pistons (25-17)
Good – They managed to stay near the top of the conference while Chauncey Billups missed eight games with a strained right calf. They also commit the fewest turnovers in the league (12.26 topg).

Bad – Their bench production leaves an awful lot to be desired.

Rookie – Will Blalock, from the little I’ve seen he’s lucky to be in the NBA.

Outlook – They remain one of the clubs to beat in the East, but their famous team chemistry no longer exists. Couple that with the hit their defense is bound to take with the addition of Chris Webber, and the Pistons are no longer an elite team.

3. *Chicago Bulls (26-19)
Good – Their always excellent defense (2nd in OPPFG% at 43.3%) has allowed them to stay right in the thick of the East, even though they have yet to put it all together.

Bad – They still have trouble finding enough offense on the nights when their outside shots aren’t falling.

Rookie – Thabo Sefolosha, athletic, unselfish and a lock down defender. I’m already on record as saying this is my boy. So you better recognize!

Outlook – The Bulls are a low post scorer away from being legitimate contenders. The good news is that Vice President John Paxson has more then enough trade assets to make that happen. Even if Pax can’t swing a deal, I like this club to go deep in the playoffs.

4. Toronto Raptors (22-23)
Good – GM Bryan Colangelo’s roster that included eight new players on opening night has come together just as I predicted (check the Eastern Conference Preview).

Bad – They are 28th in REBDIFF (-4.02) and soft defensively (22nd in OPPFG% at 46.4%).

Rookie – Andrea Bargnani, not a great athlete or defender, but once he develops some post moves and learns to put the ball on the floor, look out.

Outlook – The Raps have exceeded even my expectations up to this point and should only continue to get better. Even though they are definitely one and done if they make playoffs, winning the Titanic Division and getting the 4th seed is well within their reach.

5. *Cleveland Cavaliers (25-19)
Good – One of the better defensive (9th in OPPFG% at 45.0%) and rebounding (4th in REBDIFF at +3.46) teams in the league.

Bad – LeBron James has developed a tendency to coast during certain games, and his teammates have followed suit. They are also the worst free throw shooting team in the league (68.6%).

Rookie – Daniel Gibson, has a lot of ability, but needs to develop his PG skills (leadership, running a team, creating shots for others, etc.) if he wants to be a starter.

Outlook – Coach Mike Brown has quietly been molding his club into a defensive force. The Cavs are still a few pieces away, but a trip to the Conference Finals is not out of the question if they get their act together.

6. *Indiana Pacers (23-21)
Good – They finally rid themselves of knuckle head Stephen Jackson.

Bad – They are dead last in the NBA when it comes to shooting as a team (43.5%).

Rookie – Shawne Williams, long and athletic with a decent stroke from the outside. Very raw though.

Outlook – I think the Pacers will be better by season’s end due to the trade, but I don’t think they’ve improved enough to make any serious noise in the playoffs. However, given the right match up in the first round, Indy could be a very tough out.

7. *Orlando Magic (23-21)
Good – Their defense (3rd in OPPFG% at 43.7%) has been stifling and their rebounding (6th in REBDIFF at +2.72) isn’t too shabby either.

Bad – They lose a lot of close games due to their lack of a go to scorer down the stretch.

Rookie – J.J. Redick, can shoot the deep ball with the best of them, but is a complete liability on defense. I see no reason that he can’t have a long Steve Kerr type career though.

Outlook – I still think the Magic are on a team on the rise and a lock for the post season. Conversely, aside from Grant Hill they lack the big game experience needed to get out of the first round.

8. *New Jersey Nets (21-23)
Good – Journeyman Mikki Moore stepping up to fill the void on the front line and actually doing a serviceable job

Bad – Losing Nenad Krstic (torn ACL left knee) for the season and Richard Jefferson for approximately four to six weeks (right ankle surgery).

Rookie – Marcus Williams, slow footed, a poor defender and has an inconsistent jumper, but he can run a team. A career backup in my opinion.

Outlook – The Nets are going to have to tread water until RJ gets back and hope they can make a run to close out the season. If things start to go south in a hurry though, look for President Rod Thorn to make a bold move or two.

*Miami Heat (19-25)
Good – The job Dwyane Wade has done to keep them afloat has been nothing short of phenomenal.

Bad – Take your pick of Pat Riley’s “leave of absence” or Shaquille O’Neal appearing in only six games thus far.

Rookie – Chris Quinn, scrappy and gives 100% effort, but not an NBA player.

Outlook – Call me crazy, but I still think the Heat have a chance at the #1 seed. And as long as Shaq is healthy by the post season, I see no reason that Miami won’t represent the East in the Finals again.

New York Knicks (19-27)
Good – They play hard for coach Isiah Thomas and are competitive on most nights. They also rank a somewhat surprising 2nd overall in REBDIFF (+5.11).

Bad – Steve Francis went from All-Star at 27 years old to talk of a buyout at 29.

Rookie – Renaldo Balkman, good hustle guy that doesn’t need the ball and enjoys doing the little things. Hey, I’m not going to question one of Isiah’s draft picks.

Outlook – The Knicks are sure to surpass last season’s 23 wins, but what constitutes “significant progress” to owner James Dolan? To my eyes they already look much improved, and with the playoffs a long shot at best, Jimmy D must settle on a win total sooner or later.

Milwaukee Bucks (18-26)
Good – Flashed the potential to be an extremely high powered offense when healthy.

Bad – Losing four starters to injury.

Rookie – Ersan Ilyasova, nice athlete, very active and plays hard. Can shoot it from deep and put it on the floor, but needs to improve his all around basketball IQ.

Outlook – If a team from the Titanic wasn’t guaranteed a playoff spot, the Bucks might still have an outside chance. As is, it’s going to be very tough for them make a run when they get their people back because they don’t play defense (29th in OPPFG% at 47.6%) or rebound (26th in REBDIFF at -3.32).

Atlanta Hawks (15-27)
Good – Josh Smith averaging career highs in points, rebounds, blocks, assists and steals.

Bad – Multiple injuries derailed their solid start.

Rookie – Sheldon Williams, not terribly athletic and plays below the rim. A career back up in the making.

Outlook – Different year, same Hawks. They are 29th in points scored (91.50 ppg), 28th in shooting (43.5%) and 23rd in OPPFG% (46.5%). So they can’t score OR defend. I really hope their ownership limbo is remedied soon

Charlotte Bobcats (15-28)
Good –They have plenty of talented young players and oodles of salary cap room to spend when the moment is right.

Bad – They are 28th overall in average home attendance (15,440), which is not good for a third year expansion team.

Rookie – Adam Morrison, has the makings of a big time scorer in the league, but must develop another skill (passing? rebounding? defense?) to be a star.

Outlook – The Cats are still on the right track, but they have got to SPEND SOME MONEY this summer. I’m not saying to do something big just for the sake of doing something big, but at least make some kind of splash on the free agent market. If for no other reason then to give the fans some hope.

Philadelphia 76ers (14-31)
Good – Thankfully put an end to the Allen Iverson era.

Bad – 27th in REBDIFF (-4.00) and 25th in OPPFG% (46.9%).

Rookie – Rodney Carney, timid with the ball and seems to lack focus at times when he’s on the floor. Great athlete, but not sure he does anything at an NBA level.

Outlook – Blowing up your team during the season is a little unorthodox, but better late then never. If there’s any squad that should be tanking already, it’s the Sixers. But for some reason they persist in playing hard. By doing that Philly will continue to catch clubs taking the night off, hence winning games they shouldn’t.

Boston Celtics (12-31)
Good – Their youngsters getting plenty of opportunities to display their wares.

Bad – Injuries have just killed them.

Rookie – Rajon Rondo, super athlete with long arms and huge hands. Can defend, penetrate and run a team. Absolutely terrible shooter though.

Outlook – TANK ALERT! I find it more then a coincidence that both Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak have needed additional time (from the original prognosis) to get back from their respective injuries. “Not that there’s anything wrong with that.” The Celtics are not making the playoffs, and those two playing only costs them lottery ping pong balls in the end.

WEST

1. *Phoenix Suns (36-8)
Good – They lead the league in points (111.53 ppg), shooting (49.8%), 3-point shooting (39.9%) and assists (27.00 apg).

Bad – Kurt Thomas being out four to six weeks with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow shortens their rotation to seven guys.

Rookie – None.

Outlook – The greatest show on earth shows no signs of slowing down (two separate winning streaks of at least 15 games). Despite that, I have my concerns about the Suns. Their rotation is so short, and they play so fast, that I wonder how much gas they’ll have left in their collective tanks in the post season. Not to mention that they don’t have the depth to sustain a serious injury.

2. *Dallas Mavericks (36-9)
Good – Two separate winning streaks of 12 games or more already, plus they commit the 4th fewest turnovers in the league (13.95 topg), are 3rd in REBDIFF (+4.35) and 1st in free throw shooting (81.2%).

Bad – DeSagana Diop plummeting back to reality.

Rookie – Maurice Ager, hasn’t played much, but from what I’ve seen he’s not the scorer he was made out to be.

Outlook – I suppose it’s possible that they peak too early, or expend too much energy trying for the best record overall, but I doubt it. The Mavs have it all and then some. As long as they are healthy come playoff time, they are the favorites to win it all.

3. *San Antonio Spurs (32-14)
Good – Tim Duncan is healthy again and they are flying under the radar more or less. They also manage to somehow commit the fewest fouls per game in the NBA (19.51).

Bad – Career low shooting percentages from Robert Horry (33.8%), Beno Udrih (36.3%) and Michael Finley (38.3%).

Rookie – None.

Outlook – The Spurs are deep, well balanced and playoff tested. They also play defense (7th in OPPFG% at 44.7%) and rebound (7th in REBDIFF at +1.97). Conversely, SA looks very old and unathletic to me right now. I’m not sure they can hang with the big boys anymore unless GM R.C. Buford makes a move to address that.

4. *Utah Jazz (29-16)
Good – Second year PG Deron Williams’ ongoing evolution into Jason Kidd with a jump shot.

Bad – Coach Jerry Sloan’s refusal to start rookie Ronnie Brewer at SG.

Rookie – Paul Millsap, a hustler who’s a good rebounder and solid finisher around the rim. He’s already shown the ability to defend both forward positions too.

Outlook – The Jazz are going to be a very tough out in the playoffs because they lead the league in REBDIFF (+5.42), are 2nd in both assists (24.86 apg) & overall shooting (47.7%) and 8th in OPPFG% (44.9%). Utah is a solid SG and another defensive minded big man away from being in the mix to win it all.

5. *Houston Rockets (27-16)
Good –Tracy McGrady’s back issues seemingly becoming a thing of the past.

Bad – Yao Ming fracturing his right tibial plateau.

Rookie – Vassilis Spanoulis, can run a team and hit open shots, but not enough of a defender to get regular minutes for coach Jeff Van Gundy. A solid backup PG nonetheless.

Outlook – The Rockets play great defense (#1 in OPPFG% at 41.9%) and can rebound the ball (5th in REBDIFF at +3.41), but as is the case with all JVG coached clubs, they can’t shoot straight (25th in shooting at 44.2%). Still, this is going to be a very dangerous bunch if they are healthy by the playoffs. A club “that no one will want to play.”

6. *Los Angeles Lakers (27-17)
Good – Andrew Bynum (just 19 years old) developing into a low post scoring option and intimidator in the paint on defense faster then anyone could have possibly imagined.

Bad – They play no defense (24th in OPPFG% at 46.6%) and turn it over way too much (24th in turnovers at 16.51 topg).

Rookie – Jordan Farmar, surprisingly athletic, fearless, good penetrater and knows how to run a team. Has all the tools, but needs to work on his decision making and jump shot.

Outlook – Call me a homer, but when healthy the Lakers have the depth to give any Western squad trouble in the post season. Couple that with the best player in the game (Kobe Bryant), and this is proverbial “team that no one wants to play.” Realistically though, LA must improve their defense if they are to be considered a serious contender for the crown.

7. *Denver Nuggets (22-19)
Good – Everyone is finally available to play, and the acquisition of Steve Blake is looking like a master stroke.

Bad – Even though the season is half way over, it’s like they just broke training camp.

Rookie – Yakhouba Diawara, no game on offense at all, but has already proven to be a legitimate lock down perimeter defender.

Outlook – It’s tough to make a call on the Nugs only four games into the Allen Iverson-Carmelo Anthony partnership, but here goes anyway. From what I’ve seen Denver is going to be able to score points with the best of them. However, they are going to need to play some form of defense if they expect to consistently win games.

8. *Los Angeles Clippers (22-22)
Good – They are finally starting to play with some energy and enthusiasm. They also lead the league in blocks (6.20 bpg) and are 8th in REBDIFF (+1.81).

Bad – They are dead last overall in 3-point shooting (31.4%).

Rookie – Paul Davis, good size with decent post moves and a nice touch around the basket out to mid-range. Needs to bulk up and improve his toughness.

Outlook – The Clips went from 4th in OPPFG% last season (43.5%) to 13th this year (45.4%). Therein lies the problem with this club. Yet if the chemistry issues and injuries are both things of the past, LA should be poised to make their run during the second half.

Minnesota Timberwolves (21-22)
Good – The sheer will and greatness of Kevin Garnett being able to keep this unsightly lot in playoff contention.

Bad – Firing coach Dwane Casey (more on this in my next blog entry).

Rookie – Randy Foye, has above average strength and athleticism for his size, but not enough to consistently create quality scoring opportunities. Also doesn’t possess true PG skills or instincts. Seems like a poor man’s version of Steve Francis thus far.

Outlook – The Wolves were doing everything they possibly could to stay on the fringes of the playoff chase, so what does Vice President Kevin McHale do? He makes a coaching switch. Now, a team that wasn’t that good to begin with has to adjust on the fly to a new head man, all while trying to remain in the hunt for a post season birth. Needless to say, I’m not optimistic about their chances.

Golden State Warriors (21-23)
Good – “Nellie Ball” seems to be working for them as they are 1st in both steals (8.93 spg) & turnovers forced (18.00 topg) and 3rd in both scoring (106.11 ppg) & assists (23.50 apg).

Bad – They are dead last overall in REBDIFF (-5.75).

Rookie – Kelenna Azubuike, athletic swingman with a nice stroke from 3-point range. He works hard, but is a borderline NBA player at best.

Outlook – The Warriors went from a somewhat entertaining squad to watch, to an extremely dangerous offensive club post trade. Coach Don Nelson can now put scorers at four of the five positions at all times. If GS shows a mild interest in playing defense, and shores up their rebounding, the eighth seed is within their reach.

Portland Trail Blazers (19-26)
Good – They have six players born in 1983 or later that are developing nicely while showing various degrees of “upside”.

Bad – Joel Przybilla’s nose dive after signing a five year $32 million dollar contract.

Rookie – Brandon Roy, can shoot from outside, drive to the basket, defend, pass and even rebound a touch. A prototypical SG that will have a long career as a starter.

Outlook – The Blazers don’t play any defense (27th in OPPFG% at 47.5%), but that’s to be expected from such a young team. This is a squad that gets better every day and is on the fast track to respectability. The playoffs are out of the question this season, but with a smart trade or two, and another solid draft pick, they will be in the hunt next year.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets (18-25)
Good – David West and Bobby Jackson are already back playing, with Chris Paul soon to follow.

Bad – They are 29th in overall shooting (43.5%) and dead last in both points (90.62 ppg) & assists (17.30 apg).

Rookie – Cedric Simmons, a defense first guy with little or no offensive game. Can rebound and block shots, but needs to bulk up and develop some post moves or a mid-range J to stick.

Outlook – What has kept the Hornets afloat during their myriad of injuries is their defense (5th in OPPFG% at 44.2%), and credit for that goes to coach Byron Scott. When CP3 gets back their offense will start to click again. When healthy this is a playoff team in my mind, but I question whether or not they have enough time left to make a run.

Sacramento Kings (17-25)
Good – They seem to be getting along a little better now as a unit, and their chemistry on the floor has improved some because of it.

Bad – Mike Bibby shooting a career low 38.7% from the field.

Rookie – Quincy Douby, thin, not all that athletic and questionable on the defensive end. Looks like another shooter that can’t shoot to me.

Outlook – The Kings certainly have talent, but it doesn’t mesh during games (athletic vs. plodding) or get along away from the court (outgoing vs. low key). I’m also starting to lose faith in coach Eric Musselman, who seems to have lost his second group in two opportunities. They still have an outside chance at the post season, but it’s more likely time for President Geoff Petrie to work some more of his magic.

Seattle SuperSonics (17-27)
Good – Nick Collison stepping in as their starting center and averaging 14.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and .9 steals on 61.8% shooting in January.

Bad – Much like a scared turtle hiding in its shell, Luke Ridnour regressed all the way from looking like a legit third scoring option, to losing his starting job to Earl Watson.

Rookie – Mickael Gelabale, an above average athlete and defender with a decent mid-range jumper. Needs to improve his confidence and develop an off the dribble game.

Outlook – The Sonics are yet another squad that plays no defense (28th in OPPFG% at 47.5%). Meaning that without Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis healthy at the same time, they have no shot at the post season. With owner Clay Bennett unlikely to get the $300 million of public funding he requested for his $500 million new arena, this could very well be Seattle’s swan song as a NBA city.

Memphis Grizzlies (11-34)
Good – Ever since Tony Barone Sr. took over as coach they run and gun like it’s the mid-80’s.

Bad – Pau Gasol’s trade request being made public knowledge.

Rookie – Rudy Gay, extremely athletic with lots of offensive tools, but lacks the consistent focus/drive/toughness to be a star. Not sure he’s ever going to be more then a guy with great “upside”.

Outlook – The Griz, or as I like to call them, “Team Tank”, have been a joke ever since they fired Mike Fratello. They are 29th in REBDIFF (-4.17) and dead last in OPPFG% (48.4%). Those numbers are never that bad with the “Czar” in charge, which is exactly why they fired him in my opinion. There is no way this club doesn’t end up with one of the two worst records overall.

Mid-Season Awards

Defensive Player – Marcus Camby (Denver Nuggets)

Sixth Man – Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix Suns)

Coach – Sam Mitchell (Toronto Raptors)

Rookie – Brandon Roy (Portland Trail Blazers)

MVP – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)

All NBA

PG – Steve Nash (Phoenix Suns)

SG – Dwyane Wade (Miami Heat)

SF – Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers)

PF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)

C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs)