4.24.2007

Monday 4/23

Orlando v Detroit (Pistons up 2-0) – This series is playing out exactly as I thought it would. Even though Detroit’s winning margin has been only 8 points each night, neither game was ever in doubt.

Looking at the numbers the Magic have been shooting the ball better from the field at a 52% to 45% clip. How are they losing then? The Pistons have the edge at the free throw line 77% to 57%. There’s your series in a nutshell.

For Orlando to have any chance to steal a game at home coach Brian Hill has to play Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic together in the “twin towers” alignment a whole lot more. When those two are on the court together they flat out dominate the Detroit front line. It’s scary what the D & D boys *could* become in a few years.

What happened to Jameer Nelson? After seeing his regular season numbers drop in points, assists, steals, field goal shooting and 3-point shooting from a year ago, he continues to disappoint in the playoffs. After two games he is shooting 33.3% overall, 16.7% from three with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.20. If I’m Magic GM Otis Smith I think long and hard before offering Jameer a contract extension this summer.

Utah v Houston (Rockets up 2-0) – This series has been relatively close thus far, but the Jazz lack of post season experience has really hurt them. Houston has managed to outscore Utah 110 to 82 in the second half combined through two games. Not good.

The numbers that scream out to me are all related to free throws. The Rockets are shooting 86% from the line with 55 makes. While Jazz are at 65% with 22 makes. Yikes. Utah has also committed 20 more fouls than Houston (51 to 31) so far. The foul disparity doesn’t surprise me for two reasons; One, both games were at Toyota Center. And two, the Jazz were #1 overall in fouls committed per game this season (25.20 pfpg).

There have been some key coaching decisions that have really influenced this series so far. Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy putting Yao Ming on Carlos Boozer and Chuck Hayes on Memo Okur has turned out to be brilliant. Yao frustrated Boozer in Game 1 and Hayes continues to neutralize the All-Star Okur. Memo is averaging 5 points (down from 17.6 this season) on 18% shooting from the field (46.2%) and 23% from three (35.6%). He also has only been to the free throw line twice, missing both. It goes without saying that Okur has to pick it up for Utah to have a chance.

On the other hand Jazz coach Jerry Sloan has baffled me with his match up decisions. Derek Fisher on Tracy McGrady? You’ve got to be kidding me. Look, I know Andrei Kirilenko has struggled all year scoring the ball, and him crying (literally) about his minutes after Game 1 was bush league, but he HAS TO guard T-Mac. Just has to. How about this…replace Fish with sixth man Matt Harpring and let Harpring defend Shane Battier. Not only does this allow AK to check McGrady, but it also puts Utah’s best five on the court at the same time.

As bad as the Jazz have looked, I don’t think this series is over just yet. Utah plays much better in Salt Lake and the officiating should switch ever so slightly back toward the middle as well. While the adjustments Sloan does or doesn’t make will be paramount, I expect guys like Memo, Deron Williams and maybe even rookie Paul Millsap to perform with more confidence in the friendly confines of EnergySoultions Arena.

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