Lakers at Suns & Warriors at Mavs
Lakers v Phoenix – While I’m sure many are expecting a repeat of the classic seven gamer from last year, I’m not as optimistic. Truth be told, both teams struggled over the last month of the season with chemistry issues and it showed in their records. Los Angeles went 8-8 and the Suns 11-6.
As for the numbers, neither club plays any defense or rebounds particularly well. Phoenix finished 14th overall in opponents field goal percentage (45.69%) and the Lakers 18th (46.09%). Rebound differential was no better as LA ended up 19th overall (-1.00) and the Suns 24th (-2.34).
As you would imagine Phoenix really has the advantage when it comes to offense. The Suns led the league in shooting (49.42%), 3-point shooting (39.9%), free throw shooting (80.8%) and assists (25.87 apg). The Lakers by comparison were 6th (46.56%), 16th (35.3%), 18th (74.7%) and 6th (22.56 apg) respectively. Not too shabby, but not on the level of Phoenix either.
Lastly the Suns also have the edge in turnovers committed (9th, 14.50 topg) and fouls committed (3rd, 20.23 pfpg). LA is in the bottom third in both categories (19th, 15.52 topg & 20th, 23.03 pfpg).
All those statistics point to the same thing; The Lakers like to run and play no D, but they don’t do it as well as Phoenix does. That’s really been LA’s modus operandi all season long. They score enough points to win, but never ever get the big stops that put squads away. That is fatal against a team like the Suns.
For the Lakers to have any chance both Lamar Odom (left shoulder) and Kwame Brown (left ankle) are going to have to play well. Brown is really the key because he is LA’s best interior defender. Hopefully Kwame can at least slow Amare Stoudemire down some, but if Brown can’t go or gets in foul trouble, the Lakers road is that much tougher.
The Odom – Shawn Marion match up would be the main event if Lamar was healthy. As is LO is a pretty one dimensional player offensively right now. His jumper wasn’t all that good to begin with, and now it’s down right bad…especially from distance. He has also become a major liability at the free thrown stripe. Since Odom really isn’t quick enough to drive by Marion, Lamar must focus on defense, rebounding and play making.
Rookie Jordan Farmar started the last two games of the season in a move that was long overdue. Why LA coach Phil Jackson waited so long to pull the trigger on that one is beyond me. Now Farmar gets to face the reigning two time league MVP in his first ever playoff series. Great. If Jordan can pressure the ball and not make too many mistakes I’ll take that as a victory.
Key Match Up – Raja Bell on Kobe Bryant. These two guys don’t like each other and have been involved in their share of on court squabbles. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times; No one can stop Kobe. However, it is possible to frustrate the “Mamba”, and Raja is one of the best at it. The Lakers have zero chance to pull the upset if Bryant goes away from the game plan and gets into an individual battle with Bell.
Prediction – Even though LA has a deeper bench than Phoenix, the Lakers will not be able to out run the Suns over the course of the series. Kobe’s greatness snags LA a win in game three, but nothing more. Phoenix in 5.
Golden State v Dallas – Much like the series above this one features two teams that like to play the same way, with one squad being superior to the other. The difference here is that the Warriors have had a lot of success against the Mavericks, winning the last five regular season games between the two clubs by an average of 12.4 points.
The offensive numbers are much the same too, with Dallas having the edge in shooting (finished 5th overall at 46.73%), 3-point shooting (3rd, 38.1%) and free throw shooting (2nd, 80.5%). Compared to GS being 12th (46.27%), 13th (35.6%) and 26th (71.7%) respectively. The Warriors do take the Mavs in assists though (4th, 23.78 apg to 24th, 19.90 apg).
Digging deeper we see that Dallas has a big edge in the statistics that really count. Defensive field goal percentage (7th, 44.70% to 19th, 46.16%), rebound differential (3rd, +3.78 to 30th, -5.01) and turnovers committed (5th, 13.90 topg to 23rd, 15.96 topg) all heavily favor the Mavs.
GS finished the last month of the season on a 10-4 kick. Things really started to click for the Warriors when coach Don Nelson went to a small ball lineup full time. Starters Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington are a match up nightmare for most squads. Dallas, on the other hand, not so much. The Mavs (who went 14-4 over the final month BTW) can mix and match with anything Nellie dreams up.
The key guy for GS is B Diddy. As Baron goes so go the Warriors. Jason Terry is a good defender but he’s a little light in the shorts. Devin Harris is quicker than Davis but much smaller. BD needs to post both of them up whenever he can, but especially JET. Terry is the engine that makes Dallas go, and without him on the floor the Mavs just aren’t as good.
Key Match Up – Josh Howard & J-Rich. Richardson might be the most underrated player in the NBA right now. Jason quietly put up 21.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks in April. He also shot 50.0% from the field and 47.2% from three during that same stretch. Howard is a great defender, and when he scores 20 points Dallas almost never loses. Each player is ultra-competitive and doesn’t like to give an inch. So this could turn into a fitness contest between the two.
Prediction – No matter what happens, this is going to be a very entertaining series to watch. GS’s success against the Mavs can’t be ignored. Nor can Nellie’s familiarity with many of the Dallas player’s tendencies. In the end though the Mavs defense, rebounding and experience will be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Dallas in 6.
As for the numbers, neither club plays any defense or rebounds particularly well. Phoenix finished 14th overall in opponents field goal percentage (45.69%) and the Lakers 18th (46.09%). Rebound differential was no better as LA ended up 19th overall (-1.00) and the Suns 24th (-2.34).
As you would imagine Phoenix really has the advantage when it comes to offense. The Suns led the league in shooting (49.42%), 3-point shooting (39.9%), free throw shooting (80.8%) and assists (25.87 apg). The Lakers by comparison were 6th (46.56%), 16th (35.3%), 18th (74.7%) and 6th (22.56 apg) respectively. Not too shabby, but not on the level of Phoenix either.
Lastly the Suns also have the edge in turnovers committed (9th, 14.50 topg) and fouls committed (3rd, 20.23 pfpg). LA is in the bottom third in both categories (19th, 15.52 topg & 20th, 23.03 pfpg).
All those statistics point to the same thing; The Lakers like to run and play no D, but they don’t do it as well as Phoenix does. That’s really been LA’s modus operandi all season long. They score enough points to win, but never ever get the big stops that put squads away. That is fatal against a team like the Suns.
For the Lakers to have any chance both Lamar Odom (left shoulder) and Kwame Brown (left ankle) are going to have to play well. Brown is really the key because he is LA’s best interior defender. Hopefully Kwame can at least slow Amare Stoudemire down some, but if Brown can’t go or gets in foul trouble, the Lakers road is that much tougher.
The Odom – Shawn Marion match up would be the main event if Lamar was healthy. As is LO is a pretty one dimensional player offensively right now. His jumper wasn’t all that good to begin with, and now it’s down right bad…especially from distance. He has also become a major liability at the free thrown stripe. Since Odom really isn’t quick enough to drive by Marion, Lamar must focus on defense, rebounding and play making.
Rookie Jordan Farmar started the last two games of the season in a move that was long overdue. Why LA coach Phil Jackson waited so long to pull the trigger on that one is beyond me. Now Farmar gets to face the reigning two time league MVP in his first ever playoff series. Great. If Jordan can pressure the ball and not make too many mistakes I’ll take that as a victory.
Key Match Up – Raja Bell on Kobe Bryant. These two guys don’t like each other and have been involved in their share of on court squabbles. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times; No one can stop Kobe. However, it is possible to frustrate the “Mamba”, and Raja is one of the best at it. The Lakers have zero chance to pull the upset if Bryant goes away from the game plan and gets into an individual battle with Bell.
Prediction – Even though LA has a deeper bench than Phoenix, the Lakers will not be able to out run the Suns over the course of the series. Kobe’s greatness snags LA a win in game three, but nothing more. Phoenix in 5.
Golden State v Dallas – Much like the series above this one features two teams that like to play the same way, with one squad being superior to the other. The difference here is that the Warriors have had a lot of success against the Mavericks, winning the last five regular season games between the two clubs by an average of 12.4 points.
The offensive numbers are much the same too, with Dallas having the edge in shooting (finished 5th overall at 46.73%), 3-point shooting (3rd, 38.1%) and free throw shooting (2nd, 80.5%). Compared to GS being 12th (46.27%), 13th (35.6%) and 26th (71.7%) respectively. The Warriors do take the Mavs in assists though (4th, 23.78 apg to 24th, 19.90 apg).
Digging deeper we see that Dallas has a big edge in the statistics that really count. Defensive field goal percentage (7th, 44.70% to 19th, 46.16%), rebound differential (3rd, +3.78 to 30th, -5.01) and turnovers committed (5th, 13.90 topg to 23rd, 15.96 topg) all heavily favor the Mavs.
GS finished the last month of the season on a 10-4 kick. Things really started to click for the Warriors when coach Don Nelson went to a small ball lineup full time. Starters Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington are a match up nightmare for most squads. Dallas, on the other hand, not so much. The Mavs (who went 14-4 over the final month BTW) can mix and match with anything Nellie dreams up.
The key guy for GS is B Diddy. As Baron goes so go the Warriors. Jason Terry is a good defender but he’s a little light in the shorts. Devin Harris is quicker than Davis but much smaller. BD needs to post both of them up whenever he can, but especially JET. Terry is the engine that makes Dallas go, and without him on the floor the Mavs just aren’t as good.
Key Match Up – Josh Howard & J-Rich. Richardson might be the most underrated player in the NBA right now. Jason quietly put up 21.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks in April. He also shot 50.0% from the field and 47.2% from three during that same stretch. Howard is a great defender, and when he scores 20 points Dallas almost never loses. Each player is ultra-competitive and doesn’t like to give an inch. So this could turn into a fitness contest between the two.
Prediction – No matter what happens, this is going to be a very entertaining series to watch. GS’s success against the Mavs can’t be ignored. Nor can Nellie’s familiarity with many of the Dallas player’s tendencies. In the end though the Mavs defense, rebounding and experience will be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Dallas in 6.
posted by D$ at 11:35 AM
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