Nets at Raps & Heat at Bulls
New Jersey v Toronto – I have to admit this series was a tough call for me before I started looking at the numbers. Then after analyzing the statistics for a while it became even more difficult. These teams are just about mirror images of each other…with a few exceptions of course.
I’ll start off with my favorite, defensive field goal percentage. The Nets ended up 9th overall (44.95%), but the Raptors finished 21st (46.28%) which is second worst among playoff teams. I was shocked by that because Toronto didn’t seem *that* bad to me defensively.
Another surprising number in NJ’s favor was rebounding. It’s not like the Nets are great with a rebound differential of -.56 (17th), but again the Raps were flat out bad, ending up 27th in the league (-3.09). That is also second worst among playoff teams.
So without my two favorite stats, what does T-Dot have going for them? Well they finished 6th overall in both free throw shooting (78.8%) & fouls committed (20.39 pfpg) and were 2nd overall in turnovers committed (13.46 topg). Where NJ was 25th (72.7%), 19th (22.79 pfpg) and 12th (12.78 topg) respectively. Those are the kind of numbers that could make all the difference in a series that I expect to have many tight finishes.
The key to this series for both sides are the Anthony Parker – Vince Carter and Joey Graham – Richard Jefferson battles. Parker started every game he played for Toronto and really carved out a niche for himself as their defensive stopper. I think it’s safe to say that shadowing VC for seven games will be his toughest test yet. RJ has been rounding back into form after right ankle surgery but is still not quite the explosive athlete he once was. Ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup for Jorge Garbajosa (out, left ankle), Graham has been playing the best ball of his career. That’s bad news for the Nets because Joey is more athletic than Jefferson at the moment. I think you’ll see each game swing dependent upon who comes out on top of these match ups every night.
Key Match Up – T.J. Ford & Jason Kidd. A classic example of the old guard versus the new. Ford is ten years younger than Kidd and much, much quicker with the ball. T.J. should be able to break Jason off the dribble and get into the lane pretty much at will. Kidd ought to counter by posting Ford up whenever he can and using his height & strength advantage to force double teams. Each guy’s strong point is the other guys weakness, so foul trouble is something to keep your eye on.
Prediction – NJ has a big time edge in post season experience and that is tough for me to ignore. However, the Nets have been extremely streaky this season, rarely displaying the consistency to string together quality wins. In fact, their longest wining streak was four games (twice). Conversely, the Raps won a ton of close games this year and demonstrated that innate ability to somehow always find a way. That, along with Toronto having the superior bench, swayed me. Raps in 7.
Miami v Chicago – It would figure that the two hardest series’ for me pick are the two I have to write about after getting hardly any sleep the last couple of nights (GBA & YMSB). Anyway, this is a rematch from last year’s playoffs and should not disappoint. These squads do not like each other at all. Furthermore, each coach called out an opposing player as dirty during the season. This series is going to get testy, you can count on that.
The numbers say these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls finished second in defensive field goal percentage (43.53%) and the Heat 5th (44.42%). We’ll call that a wash.
Rebound differential favors Chicago pretty significantly. The Bulls ended up 6th (+2.78) while Miami was 16th (-.54). I suppose you can blame some of that on Shaquille O’Neal missing 42 games, but I’ve long since stopped making excuses for Shaq led clubs.
The only other stat worth mentioning here is 3-point percentage. Chi-town was a somewhat surprising 2nd overall (38.8%), while the Heat were a lowly 27th (34.3%). This bears watching for two reasons. First, the Bulls are a jump shooting team, so it behooves them to be money from behind the arc. Second, you’d think Miami’s percentage would be better than that with all the double teams Shaq draws. Not to mention league leader Jason Kapono’s gaudy number (51.4%).
Chicago wants to push the ball and get easy looks in transition because they really don’t have a post player or a guy that can consistently create quality opportunities off the dribble. The Heat would like to slow the game down. Not only to take advantage of Shaq down low, but also because they are a little long in the tooth and slow of foot.
While The Diesel has certainly lost a step or two, you still have to game plan around dealing with him. Enter Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown. The Bulls brought these two in specifically to deal with the Big Fella, and it’s time for them to earn their keep. After Big Ben and P.J. the next line of defense is decidedly worse. Guys like Malik Allen, Tyrus Thomas, Michael Sweetney & Viktor Khryapa have no chance at all against Shaq, but one of them is going to have to play some minutes. Good luck.
Someone on Chicago has to break out, become their go-to-guy and carry the squad in crunch time. Usually they look to Ben Gordon, but he is streaky at best and really kinda easy to shut down. I’m looking for Luol Deng to make a statement about the type of player he can develop into because Andres Nocioni (right foot) has only played in five games thus far since his comeback.
Key Match Up – Krik Hinrich & Dwyane Wade. This is thee main event. Hinrich was the guy Miami coach Pat Riley called dirty (James Posey was singled out by Bulls coach Scott Skiles) and Wade echoed his leader’s statement. To quote the great Artie Lange, “WHAHHH!” You see, Captain Kirk has garnered a reputation as an excellent defender, and with that comes some leeway from the referees. Now no player gets more leeway from the refs then D Wade. So this battle really boils down to who can get away with more? Look for Kirk to run Dwyane’s left shoulder into as many picks as humanly possible and for Chicago in general to be very physical with Wade. On the flip side, Flash should post Hinrich up and try to get Kirk into some foul trouble.
Prediction – First off, this is going to be a contentious hard fought battle right from the opening tip of game one. What makes this a tough call for me is that there are so many question marks. Can the Bulls get over blowing the #2 seed on the final day of the regular season? Can the Heat flip the switch again? Will Wade’s shoulder hold up? I’d love to pick Chicago because they *know* they can beat Miami, but I just don’t have the onions (Bill Raftery!). Plus, I picked the Heat to go to the Finals back in October, so I’ll let that be the determining factor here. Miami in 6.
I’ll start off with my favorite, defensive field goal percentage. The Nets ended up 9th overall (44.95%), but the Raptors finished 21st (46.28%) which is second worst among playoff teams. I was shocked by that because Toronto didn’t seem *that* bad to me defensively.
Another surprising number in NJ’s favor was rebounding. It’s not like the Nets are great with a rebound differential of -.56 (17th), but again the Raps were flat out bad, ending up 27th in the league (-3.09). That is also second worst among playoff teams.
So without my two favorite stats, what does T-Dot have going for them? Well they finished 6th overall in both free throw shooting (78.8%) & fouls committed (20.39 pfpg) and were 2nd overall in turnovers committed (13.46 topg). Where NJ was 25th (72.7%), 19th (22.79 pfpg) and 12th (12.78 topg) respectively. Those are the kind of numbers that could make all the difference in a series that I expect to have many tight finishes.
The key to this series for both sides are the Anthony Parker – Vince Carter and Joey Graham – Richard Jefferson battles. Parker started every game he played for Toronto and really carved out a niche for himself as their defensive stopper. I think it’s safe to say that shadowing VC for seven games will be his toughest test yet. RJ has been rounding back into form after right ankle surgery but is still not quite the explosive athlete he once was. Ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup for Jorge Garbajosa (out, left ankle), Graham has been playing the best ball of his career. That’s bad news for the Nets because Joey is more athletic than Jefferson at the moment. I think you’ll see each game swing dependent upon who comes out on top of these match ups every night.
Key Match Up – T.J. Ford & Jason Kidd. A classic example of the old guard versus the new. Ford is ten years younger than Kidd and much, much quicker with the ball. T.J. should be able to break Jason off the dribble and get into the lane pretty much at will. Kidd ought to counter by posting Ford up whenever he can and using his height & strength advantage to force double teams. Each guy’s strong point is the other guys weakness, so foul trouble is something to keep your eye on.
Prediction – NJ has a big time edge in post season experience and that is tough for me to ignore. However, the Nets have been extremely streaky this season, rarely displaying the consistency to string together quality wins. In fact, their longest wining streak was four games (twice). Conversely, the Raps won a ton of close games this year and demonstrated that innate ability to somehow always find a way. That, along with Toronto having the superior bench, swayed me. Raps in 7.
Miami v Chicago – It would figure that the two hardest series’ for me pick are the two I have to write about after getting hardly any sleep the last couple of nights (GBA & YMSB). Anyway, this is a rematch from last year’s playoffs and should not disappoint. These squads do not like each other at all. Furthermore, each coach called out an opposing player as dirty during the season. This series is going to get testy, you can count on that.
The numbers say these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls finished second in defensive field goal percentage (43.53%) and the Heat 5th (44.42%). We’ll call that a wash.
Rebound differential favors Chicago pretty significantly. The Bulls ended up 6th (+2.78) while Miami was 16th (-.54). I suppose you can blame some of that on Shaquille O’Neal missing 42 games, but I’ve long since stopped making excuses for Shaq led clubs.
The only other stat worth mentioning here is 3-point percentage. Chi-town was a somewhat surprising 2nd overall (38.8%), while the Heat were a lowly 27th (34.3%). This bears watching for two reasons. First, the Bulls are a jump shooting team, so it behooves them to be money from behind the arc. Second, you’d think Miami’s percentage would be better than that with all the double teams Shaq draws. Not to mention league leader Jason Kapono’s gaudy number (51.4%).
Chicago wants to push the ball and get easy looks in transition because they really don’t have a post player or a guy that can consistently create quality opportunities off the dribble. The Heat would like to slow the game down. Not only to take advantage of Shaq down low, but also because they are a little long in the tooth and slow of foot.
While The Diesel has certainly lost a step or two, you still have to game plan around dealing with him. Enter Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown. The Bulls brought these two in specifically to deal with the Big Fella, and it’s time for them to earn their keep. After Big Ben and P.J. the next line of defense is decidedly worse. Guys like Malik Allen, Tyrus Thomas, Michael Sweetney & Viktor Khryapa have no chance at all against Shaq, but one of them is going to have to play some minutes. Good luck.
Someone on Chicago has to break out, become their go-to-guy and carry the squad in crunch time. Usually they look to Ben Gordon, but he is streaky at best and really kinda easy to shut down. I’m looking for Luol Deng to make a statement about the type of player he can develop into because Andres Nocioni (right foot) has only played in five games thus far since his comeback.
Key Match Up – Krik Hinrich & Dwyane Wade. This is thee main event. Hinrich was the guy Miami coach Pat Riley called dirty (James Posey was singled out by Bulls coach Scott Skiles) and Wade echoed his leader’s statement. To quote the great Artie Lange, “WHAHHH!” You see, Captain Kirk has garnered a reputation as an excellent defender, and with that comes some leeway from the referees. Now no player gets more leeway from the refs then D Wade. So this battle really boils down to who can get away with more? Look for Kirk to run Dwyane’s left shoulder into as many picks as humanly possible and for Chicago in general to be very physical with Wade. On the flip side, Flash should post Hinrich up and try to get Kirk into some foul trouble.
Prediction – First off, this is going to be a contentious hard fought battle right from the opening tip of game one. What makes this a tough call for me is that there are so many question marks. Can the Bulls get over blowing the #2 seed on the final day of the regular season? Can the Heat flip the switch again? Will Wade’s shoulder hold up? I’d love to pick Chicago because they *know* they can beat Miami, but I just don’t have the onions (Bill Raftery!). Plus, I picked the Heat to go to the Finals back in October, so I’ll let that be the determining factor here. Miami in 6.
posted by D$ at 8:57 PM
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