Tuesday 5/29

Cleveland v Detroit (tied 2-2) – The Cavaliers capitalized on another outstanding 4th quarter performance by LeBron James to even this series up and make it a best of three affair. James scored 13 of his 25 points (4-6 FG & 5-5 FT), grabbed 4 of his 7 boards and dished 3 of his 11 assist in the 4th. Wow, he did have some help though. Drew Gooden dropped 7 of his 19 points in the final stanza and chipped in 8 total rebounds taboot. It’s hard to ever say that losing a starter in the Conference Finals is a good thing, but in the case of Larry Hughes (torn plantar fascia left foot), it might be. Rookie Daniel Gibson scored a career high 21 points and was 12-12 from the free throw line filling in for Hughes. “Boobie’s” quickness off the dribble is definitely giving the Piston guards grief. (Told ya so…)

I’m starting to think that Detroit is lucky to be at 2-2 in this series. Think about it, all the Pistons really have going for them is that they’ve outscored Cleveland 87 to 58 combined in the 3rd quarters. After that, then what? Detroit has looked shaky during crunch time in every game and doesn’t have anybody performing at a consistently high level. The Pistons also have yet to display any kind of indication that they are close to figuring out the Cavs defense.

I know I picked Detroit to win in six, but it’s looking to me like we may be seeing a changing of the guard in the East a season sooner than expected because the Pistons seem to be running out of gas for the second consecutive post season. There’s no doubt that Detroit will come out on fire Thursday night, but I wonder if their best is even good enough anymore? Even though Cleveland has looked very shaky at times, if the Cavs can weather the Pistons initial burst in Game 5, I think LeBron and his boys can get the job done down the stretch once again

Monday 5/28

Utah v San Antonio (Spurs up 3-1) – In a game that should have been played Monday afternoon (Memorial Day), rather than prime time, SA used a 28 to 17 4th quarter to beat the Jazz in Salt Lake for the first time ever in the playoffs. Manu Ginobili was the big star for the Spurs scoring 16 of his 22 points in the final stanza. Included in those 16 points were 11 free throws (in 13 attempts). Manu’s 4th really was a microcosm of the entire quarter for SA. The Spurs were 19-25 from the line as a team in the 4th and made more total free throws (30) than field goals (28) on the game. Compare that to Utah going 1-2 from the stripe in the 4th quarter and you can see why their fans were pelting the court post game.

The Jazz had an opportunity to even the series up with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker both having slightly off nights, but Utah was unable to capitalize due to committing more total turnovers (17 to 11) and fouls (27 to 17) than SA. Deron Williams (27 points & 10 assists) and Carlos Boozer (18 points & 9 rebounds) once again did their part, but the supporting cast did not come through. The key move of the game turned out to be when Spurs coach Gregg Popovich decided to double D Wil and take the ball out of his hands to start the 4th. Memo Okur (7 points), Gordan Giricek (4), Matt Harpring (2) and Paul Millsap (2) all were unable to step up. The frustration of the whistles not going their way finally boiled over with :52 seconds left when the normally mild mannered Derek Fisher was ejected for semi-getting into it with Ginobili. Utah coach Jerry Sloan then followed suit and was promptly tossed for arguing with the refs.

I expect SA to close this one out on Wednesday, but with the way this post season has gone thus far, nothing is impossible.

Sunday 5/27

Cleveland v Detroit (Pistons up 2-1) – LeBron James and the Cavaliers finally got over the hump and held on to win one against an aging-before-our-eyes Detroit squad. James scored 12 of his 32 points in the 4th quarter and had a hand in 12 of Cleveland’s final 14 points (either by assisting on or making the basket). Bron did have help from his supporting cast which fed off the home crowd’s energy. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (16 points), Sasha Pavlovic (13) and Drew Gooden (12) all played well, but it was rookie Daniel Gibson (9) who came up the biggest. “Boobie” made a huge three and had a key steal in the final 4:26 of his career playoff high 29 minutes filling in for Larry Hughes (sprained left foot).

As for the Pistons, Chauncey Billups continues to disappoint with his shooting (12-27, 44.4%), play making (4.7 assists per game) and decision making (5.7 turnovers per game). This is not exactly the way for “Mr. Big Shot” to make money heading into free agency. Anyway, after a sizzling Game 1 (11-21 FG) Richard Hamilton has joined Billups by shooting an icy 31.8% (7-22) from the field. I’m willing to give Tayshaun Prince (7-32, 21.9%) a pass because his primary objective is to guard LeBron.

It’s easy to say that Detroit is just missing shots, but I think it’s well past time to give the Cavs credit for being the better defensive club of the two. Not to mention that Cleveland is also the more athletic and deeper unit as well. I’m sure the Pistons will have their “energy” up on Tuesday night, but unless they can figure out a way to crack the Cavs D it won’t matter. Hughes’ foot is a lingering question for Cleveland, but as long as they play smart in crunch time the Cavs should be fine.

Saturday 5/26

Utah v San Antonio (Spurs up 2-1) – The Jazz remained undefeated at home during the playoffs by handing SA their worst loss of the entire season. The 26 point victory gives Utah a jolt in the arm and some much needed confidence. Second year PG Deron Williams continued his stellar play with 31 points (4-5 on threes & 7-8 free throws), 8 assists and 5 steals. Carlos Boozer was again the other main cog in the Jazz attack grabbing 12 boards and scoring 27 points on 12-19 shooting. As usual, Utah’s bench fed off their home crowd’s energy and came through with their best performance of the Conference Finals. The Jazz (53.2%) also shot above 50% for the first time all series while at the same time holding the Spurs (43.8%) under 50% for the first time in the series.

I’m sure SA will point to Tim Duncan’s foul trouble as the reason they struggled, but fouls didn’t make Manu Ginobili shoot 4-12 from the field. Also worth noting in the lame excuse department is that Utah’s Memo Okur did not score in 21 minutes of action due to fouls. Tony Parker (25 points & 7 assists) played well for the Spurs but TP continues to lose the PG battle against D Wil. I expect SA to bounce back in a big way in Game 4 and give the Jazz all they can handle. The question then becomes will Utah respond in kind and make this a full blown series?

Vincent Hired

Yesterday (5/25) the Charlotte Bobcats hired Sam Vincent to be their second head coach in franchise history. Part owner Michael Jordan also announced that Bernie Bickerstaff, coach and GM since the team’s inception, will take on a new role as Executive Vice President.

While Vincent has only one year of NBA experience, as an assistant in Dallas this past season, that’s not to say he hasn’t paid his dues. Sam has coached clubs in South Africa, Greece and the Netherlands. He also led the Nigerian woman’s squad to Africa’s first ever victory in woman’s Olympic basketball (2004). He then took over Nigeria’s men’s team and led them to the second round of the 2006 FIBA World Championships. He’s also been a head coach in the NBDL on two different occasions.

Guys like Vincent are *such* a better option than the Larry Brown’s, Jeff Van Gundy’s and Mike Fratello’s of the world. More NBA management types should be looking to the ranks of top assistants when they need a change, rather than going the much safer retread-scrap-heap route. Now I can’t pretend to know what kind of coach Sam is, nor am I really sure who made the final call on hiring Vincent, but I applaud both MJ and BB for this decision.

Thursday 5/24

Cleveland v Detroit (Pistons up 2-0) – Detroit somehow managed to hold serve at home in two of the downright ugliest games I’ve seen this post season. Game 2 really took the cake as the Pistons committed 7 turnovers in the 4th quarter and the Cavaliers 6. 13 combined miscues and 32 total points in the 4th quarter of a Conference Final? Brutal. Detroit is usually one of the best clubs in the entire NBA at closing out games, but they have stunk so far in this series. A big reason for that is the play of Chauncey Billups. Through two games “Mr. Big Shot” is averaging 13 points, 6 turnovers and 5.5 assists and has been unable to crack Cleveland’s defensive scheme against him. So how are the Pistons doing it? Well Rasheed Wallace (60.87% shooting, 15.5 points, 11.5 rebounds & 4.5 blocks) has really saved Detroit’s bacon with his clutch shot making and presence as their last line of defense.

The Cavs have obviously been very shaky down the stretch, but I’m not about to pin all the blame on LeBron James. I’m not getting into whether or not he was fouled at the end of Game 2 (although Dwyane Wade gets that call in the Finals last year), but James definitely made the right play at the end of Game 1 by passing to a WIDE OPEN Donyell Marshall for the potential game winning three. Even though his growing pains are painful to watch live, you can literally see LeBron figuring out how to finish games right before your eyes. Nothing teaches a competitor like failure. Anyway, Larry Hughes has been just plain awful thus far shooting 27.27% (6-22) while putting up 8.5 points a night. Now that’s the kind of production you’d expect for $15.3 million! I’ve been saying it all playoffs long, but it’s time play rookie Daniel Gibson. “Boobie” is a much better shooter and playmaker already than Hughes will ever be.

The Pistons keep pointing to their lack of “energy” every time they perform poorly. I for one am no longer buying it. Detroit is an old and tired squad that is barely hanging on against a far less experienced opponent. Being that Cleveland could have easily won both games, I’m interested to see how they respond Sunday in front of their home crowd. Since the Cavs don’t seem like a bunch that gets down on themselves, I think they are going to use their anger as motivation. Call it a hunch (lock alert!), but I sense a blowout of the Pistons coming in Game 3.

Adelman Hired & Suns Plight

> The Houston Rockets became the first team to finalize their coaching search today (5/23) by hiring Rick Adelman to replace the fired Jeff Van Gundy. JVG was 182-146 during his four seasons in Houston, but he was only 7-12 in the playoffs and never got the Rockets to the second round. While there’s no doubt Jeff is a good coach, he is what is he is at this point. You know he’ll give you a great defensive team that struggles offensively. That may have worked in the late 90’s, but with the direction the league is going these days Van Gundy’s style makes him a dinosaur more or less.

The appointment of Adelman as head man is pretty much the typical overreaction by an NBA front office. JVG was an intense all D and no O leader, so of course what the franchise needs now is a laid back all O no D coach instead. I also have to question how Houston GM Daryl Morey handled this whole situation. In his first “official” move in charge, Morey interviewed Rick before Jeff was even fired. You may call it semantics, but that’s not a great first impression to the rest of the league.

Even though Adelman (752-481 career) may seem like your standard coaching carousel retread, he’s really not. Rick has only missed the post season twice in 16 seasons (both with Golden State), and really didn’t deserve to be fired from Sacramento in the first place (judging by how the Kings performed after he left). Adelman *will* develop an offense that works for both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming alike. Rick is also known as a good communicator who players generally tend to like. I’m not sure if Adelman is best guy for this job, but there are certainly many worse options to be sure.

> I mentioned yesterday how Atlanta ended up with two picks in the lottery, but what I failed to point out is how this affects Phoenix. The Suns whole retooling plan was hinging on them getting the #4 pick. It's going to be very interesting to see what coach/GM Mike D'Antoni can do without it now.

There’s no sugar coating it, D’Antoni’s track record out of the gate as GM has been awful. He drafted Rajon Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez (arguably the two best PG’s in the 2006 draft) and promptly traded both so he could sign Marcus Banks (5 years, $20.8 million). Needless to say, that was a MAJOR gaffe. However Banks is not alone in the bust department, Mike also signed Eric Piatkowski, Sean Marks, Jumaine Jones and Jalen Rose; none of whom contributed at all this season. He is 1 for 2 on contract extensions (Leandro Barbosa good & Boris Diaw bad), but everything else he’s touched has turned to stone.

So what does Phoenix do now with a mandate from owner Robert Sarver not to pay the luxury tax? You can forget about trading Amare Stoudemire and the #4 pick for Kevin Garnett. Also out the window is dumping Shawn Marion’s salary and drafting his replacement at #4. The task gets that much tougher for D’Antoni if assistant GM David Griffin and lead assistant coach Marc Iavaroni both bolt for Seattle. I wonder if Sarver wishes he ponied up for reigning Executive of the Year and former Suns GM Bryan Colangelo now?

Tuesday 5/22

Utah v San Antonio (Spurs up 2-0) – I wish I could say that this series wasn’t playing out exactly like I thought it would, but it is. SA has been running their offense to perfection, getting whatever looks they want at will. The Spurs passing in their half court sets has been near textbook as well. The numbers are scary when you consider that SA is shooting 54.93% from the field and averaging 27 assists per game as a team. To put that in perspective, Phoenix led the league in both categories during the regular season at 49.42% and 25.87 apg respectively. The next thing the Spurs have done is completely taken away the Jazz secondary fast break. SA has successfully turned Utah into a strictly half court squad, essentially taking away half the Jazz offensive game plan.

Utah has been outscored by 31 points combined (64 to 33) in the 2nd quarters so far. If you take away those two quarters though, the Jazz have actually outscored the Spurs 163 to 149. I don’t know what the problem is there, but it also happened against Golden State in Game 3, and needs to be remedied immediately. While things look awfully bleak for Utah at the moment, there is hope. After a slow start in Game 1 Carlos Boozer has proven that he can take it to whomever SA throws at him. Likewise, Deron Williams has been eating the Spurs alive to the tune of 30 points, 9.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2 steals per game while shooting 54.77% from the field.

The main thing the Jazz need to realize is that you have to play at a completely different level in terms of consistent effort, execution and intensity to beat a squad like the Spurs on this stage. If the Jazz can rediscover their defensive and running game's back in Salt Lake, this might be a series yet. As of now though, I still foresee a split in Utah and this one being over in five.

The Pacific Northwest Hits the Lottery!

I have to admit that I was super psyched when Portland got the #1 pick with just a 5.3% chance going in. Ever since my disgust with Philadelphia management forced me to abandon them, combined with the fact that I actually live in Oregon, the Trail Blazers have become my second favorite team.

(Sidebar: For those that don’t know, it’s a very weird combination to root for the Lakers and Blazers here in Oregon, but I’m not originally from here, so it doesn't bother me.)

I’m not 100% sure what Portland will do with the #1 pick, but the smart money is on drafting Greg Oden. However, I’m not of the mind that it’s a slam dunk for a few reasons.

First off, they have a log jam of bigs under contract through the 2008-09 season with Zach Randolph, Raef LaFrentz, Joel Przybilla and LeMarcus Aldridge. Raef is a cap killer that is going nowhere, Joel is a fine backup and Aldridge is the future. Sorry Z-Bo, but you’re the odd man out. Zach is scheduled to make 13.3 million next year, so he won’t be easy to move, but it’s an absolute must that he is not allowed to stunt the growth of the Oden-LeMarc twin tower combo.

Then there’s the case for Kevin Durant. He’d come right in, fill a need and play along side Brandon Roy for the next 10 years. He’d also alleviate their obligation to resign Travis Outlaw and allow them to give up on the Martell Webster experiment. It might seem crazy to some, but I don’t think it’s that far fetched actually.

The most unlikely of scenarios is a trade. I bring it up only because of the plethora of marquee names sure to be available this summer (Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Jason Kidd, etc.) and the amount of dead weight contracts currently on the Blazers roster (Randolph, LaFrentz, Przybilla and the worst of them all…Darius Miles). If you could possibly unload two of those, get an established star and keep a top 10 pick, you’d at least have to listen. I really don’t know what I’d do in the end, but it’s time for new Portland GM Kevin Pritchard to earn his money.

As for the rest of the lottery, I LOVED that the three teams with the worst records were shut out. The reason? They all blatantly tanked. Memphis (22-60) was by far the most egregious offender, throwing in the towel 30 games into the season. Boston (24-58) was a close second, holding out Paul Pierce for extended periods and playing their youngsters extreme amounts. Milwaukee (28-54) joined the party when it shut Andrew Bogut, Charlie Villanueva and Michael Redd prematurely. Call it poetic justice, karma, whatever, but the moral to the story is tankers never win and winners never tank.

For all you conspiracy theorists out there you can surely say that the NBA just saved pro basketball in the Pacific Northwest. Although it’s hard for me to believe that the league would reward these two small market clubs over perennial powers like the Sixers and Celtics. I’d say the more likely conspiracy theory is that Commissioner David Stern preferred to reward the top three picks to squads that didn’t tank.

Other subplots from Secaucus, NJ…

> Seattle will be entertaining offers as well, with the #2 pick and Rashard Lewis (sign & trade) on the table. A deal with the Blazers is even within the realm of possibilities.

> Atlanta doesn’t have to give it’s pick to Phoenix (Joe Johnson trade) and thus ends up with two picks (Indiana's) in the top eleven. How’d that Al Harrington sign and trade work out Larry Bird?

> Pro basketball is officially dead in Memphis.

> KG is doomed for as long as he stays in Minnesota.

> The Eddy Curry trade may not be as bad as originally thought with Chicago only ending up with the #9 pick.

Second Round Recap

The second round of the post season saw me rebound from a horrible start as I went 4-0. That brings my total to a more respectable 8-4, but that record is still nothing to be proud of. At this point I’ll be satisfied if I can finish up at 11-4 overall.

From my predictions back in October I ended up with five of the final eight (3 East, 2 West) and two of the final four (1 each) with San Antonio still alive as my Champion. Not too shabby at all.

I agree with many of you out there that the suspensions of Amare Stoudemire, and to a lesser extent Boris Diaw and Robert Horry, marred what could have been the best series of the entire playoffs. What are you gonna do though? The leaving the bench during an “altercation” rule has been in effect for 10 years, and it *has* ruined more then one other team’s title aspirations as well. Just have to add Phoenix to that list now.

Cavs at Pistons

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.56%
Cleveland – 42.11%

Rebound Differential
Detroit – +0.90
Cleveland – +7.40

Shooting
Detroit – 43.65%
Cleveland – 43.05%

3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 37.02%
Cleveland – 32.32%

Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.07%
Cleveland – 75.27%

Turnovers
Detroit – 11.60
Cleveland – 12.70

Fouls
Detroit – 24.60
Cleveland – 20.50

Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.3
Cleveland – 90.2

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Larry Hughes & Eric Snow – There’s no denying that Billups is the engine that makes his team go. The Pistons really struggled against Chicago any time Chaunc was out of the game. That’s why Hughes is so important in this series. Larry has all the tools (length, quickness, athletic ability) to really bother “Mr. Big Shot”. Hughes will need to step up and contribute on offense occasionally, but shutting down Billups should be Larry’s number one priority.

Hunter and Snow are both great on the ball defenders that can’t shoot worth a lick. However, E Snow does provide his club with more leadership and is a better play maker as well.

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Sasha Pavlovic & Daniel Gibson – While “Rip” is obviously the better all around player, I can’t think of anybody more up for the challenge of chasing him around all night than Sasha. Pavlovic is a feisty defender with decent athleticism that won’t back down from anybody. Since Detroit goes as their guards go, Sasha disrupting Hamilton’s flow would be a serious boon for the Cavaliers.

Murray has been pretty much a non-factor this post season because he’s a scorer whose jumper has abandoned him. On the other hand Gibson seems to produce any time he gets minutes. Even though Daniel is a rookie, his ability to penetrate and knock down open shots makes him a candidate for x-factor…if he’s allowed to play of course.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v LeBron James & Ira Newble – Even though no one person can stop Bron, this battle is really the key for the Pistons. If Prince can use his length and savvy to frustrate James, Cleveland is in big trouble. The more likely scenario is that Detroit employs a team defensive concept similar to the old “Jordan Rules”. No matter how much he’s getting beat up, LeBron *must* continually take the ball to the hoop and not settle for long jumpers. There are two reasons for this; #1 James is completely unstoppable when he decides to drive. #2 he can put fouls on Tay and others over the course of a game. It’s not going to be easy for Bron, but if he wants to get over the hump, this is the road he must travel.

Delfino’s playing time has been gradually disappearing in the playoffs, but he is a guy that could defend James for a few possessions here and there when needed. I don’t expect Newble to see the light of day.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Drew Gooden & Donyell Marshall – I’m going out on a limb here and predicting that Wallace and Gooden get into it with each other at least once this series. The two of them are far too combustible for a few scrums not to break out. Sheed is a very important barometer for how the Pistons perform, and Drew has the quickness and strength to stay with Wallace on the perimeter and in the paint. On the flip side Sheed can’t get lazy on defense because Gooden has a nice mid-range jumper and is a tireless worker on the offensive glass.

Maxiell suddenly became a rotation player in the Bulls series, and it seemed long overdue. Jason gives Detroit a tough minded athlete that doesn’t mind mixing it up down low. Marshall has played one good game this entire post season, so if his 3-point shot isn’t falling, don’t expect to see much of him.

Center
Chris Webber & Antonio McDyess v Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao – If there’s one area where the Cavs have a clear cut advantage, it’s in the pivot. That’s why I think Ilgauskas is the most important player for Cleveland. Granted, his coach has to run plays for him, and his teammates also have to give him the ball, but if Big Z has his offensive game working down low the Pistons don’t have an answer for him. Webber has been morphing into the invisible man as the playoffs have worn on, and that trend looks to continue here. Chris straight lacks the muscle and height to deal with Ilgauskas, but C-Web also is not quick enough to stay with Gooden or Varejao.

It’s a rare thing when both squads’ sixth man is a big, but that is certainly the case here. Dyess will be counted on to log heavy minutes against the Drew, Big Z and “Sideshow Bob” triumvirate. Antonio has been struggling from the field lately, so any turnaround there is a bonus for Detroit. Anderson just needs to continue to do what he does, which is rebound, defend, agitate and bring energy.

Coach
Flip Saunders v Mike Brown – Both of these guys are probably better known for their flaws than strengths. Saunders seems to tighten up in big moments and doesn’t always look to have control of his club. Brown’s offense is routinely bashed and his play designs coming out of dead ball situations routinely disappoint. I’m giving the edge to Flip here because he’s more creative with his adjustments both in game and game-to-game.

Overall

This series is not going to win over the hearts and minds of any potential NBA fans out there. In fact, the haters in the media will have a field day ripping this series to shreds and saying how boring the play in the NBA is. Whatever, we’ll call those two sentences a bonus prediction. You can expect to see a tough, 90’s style, defensive, grind it out series here. There will be plenty of hard fouls given both ways and the no lay-up rule will be in full effect.

Believe it or not, I actually think that Cleveland plays the better defense of the two teams. The Cavs game plan should be to stay within striking distance so LeBron has a chance to win it in the end. In order to keep it close though, Cleveland is going to need someone else to step up and score along side James every game. Whether it is Hughes, Gooden, Ilgauskas or another, it doesn’t matter, but it has to be somebody. As usual, the Pistons need to guard against complacency and withstand their own inevitable scoring droughts.

Prediction: Detroit’s superior experience and balance carry the day. Pistons in 6.

Jazz at Spurs

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
San Antonio – 45.08%
Utah – 42.12%

Rebound Differential
San Antonio – -0.55
Utah – +8.00

Shooting
San Antonio – 45.09%
Utah – 46.23%

3-Point Shooting
San Antonio – 37.44%
Utah – 33.94%

Free Throw Shooting
San Antonio – 74.79%
Utah – 76.25%

Turnovers
San Antonio – 12.73
Utah – 15.92

Fouls
San Antonio – 20.18
Utah – 24.42

Pace Factor
San Antonio – 93.5
Utah – 94.3

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn v Deron Williams & Dee Brown – After already facing Allen Iverson and Steve Nash life doesn’t get any easier for Parker against Williams. Tony will obviously have a quickness advantage but Deron has the upper hand strength wise. Both guys are great at getting into the lane and creating opportunities for their teammates. Likewise, TP and D Wil are very streaky jump shooters who become practically unguardable when their outside shot is falling. Whichever player gets the better of this matchup will probably dictate which team wins on a nightly basis.

I don’t expect to see much of Vaughn or Brown, other than as a change of pace player for a few minutes here and there.

Shooting Guard
Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili v Derek Fisher & Gordan Giricek – Fin and Fish are both veteran guys that play smart on offense and defense alike. Each player’s 3-point shooting and leadership is much needed by their respective clubs. Another thing about these two is that they both have a knack for hitting big shots in pressure situations. It’s hard to say who really has the advantage here.

Ginobili finally broke out late in the Phoenix series and started playing like we’ve become accustomed to. The Jazz have plenty of guys that can defend Manu, but containing his infectious energy off the bench is a tough job for anybody. Gira must keep his head in the game at all times, play with intensity on the defensive end and make open 3-pointers.

Small Forward
Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Who Bowen and Kirilenko end up guarding is the big question. I think we’ll see BB on Williams a lot and AK-47 on Parker and Ginobili depending on who is hotter. The Spurs need Bruce to make that corner three and Andrei *must* perform with the same reckless abandon he’s shown recently. A big offensive contribution from either these two could swing a game’s outcome.

It’s up to Matt to consistently match Manu’s enthusiasm as sixth man. Harpring struggled at times against Golden State, but the tempo and physical nature of this series should be much more to his liking. Barry has yet to be much of a contributor in the playoffs, and I doubt that changes now.

Power Forward
Tim Duncan & Robert Horry v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – Ladies and gentlemen…I give you the main event. Duncan and Boozer are both beasts down low who possess nice mid-range jumpers as well. Each is a great rebounder and adept at using the glass, but Carlos has a better left hand, while Tim is the superior defender. Each squad is well equipped to throw multiple bodies at Dunc and Booz in an attempt to wear them down. So it’s going to be during crunch time, when all the chips are down, that we’ll get to see who’s in better condition to carry their team.

The bench matchup is a case of old versus new. Both Horry and Millsap hustle and do all the little things that coaches love. Believe it or not, Paul is really a younger more athletic version of Robert at this point in their career’s. The only thing I see that separates these two is “Cheap Shot Rob’s” experience and 3-point shooting.

Center
Fabricio Oberto & Francisco Elson v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – Even though Oberto seems to have the won the starting job from Elson during the post season, I think Francisco matches up better with Okur and/or Boozer. Either way Fab and Cisco are pretty much interchangeable, with Elson being the more mobile of the two. Memo has been quietly having a sensational year. He’s also developed into one of the NBA’s premier clutch shot makers. After the job he did on Yao Ming, I’m sure Okur will be called upon to be Duncan's primary defender. Memo struggled offensively against Houston, so it will be interesting to see what kind of energy he has left for scoring after banging with Timmy all game long.

Collins will certainly get an opportunity to use all six of his fouls against Duncan.

Coach
Gregg Popovich v Jerry Sloan – These two should set the combined world record for biting sarcastic remarks at press conferences over the course of a series. Including their mutual disdain for reporters, these guys are pretty much carbon copies of one another. That said, I’m giving a slight edge here to Pop based on his superior ability to make adjustments during games.

Overall

These clubs are remarkably similar in just about every way. They are both well coached, play smart and work hard. While they both generally play slow, preferring to execute in the half court on offense, each will also get out and run when the opportunity presents itself. They both also take care of the boards and play tough, solid, physical defense. Each squad features a fantastic young PG, a top flight defensive ace and a reliable low post scorer. The differences as I see them are that SA has better 3-point shooters and more experience as a unit on the big stage.

Utah has a great chance to steal Game 1 on the road with the Spurs coming off an emotionally draining series and being on one day of rest. If the Jazz can do that this tussle has a chance to surpass expectations and surprise quite a few people. The reason I say that is because I get the feeling that the public’s perception is that this will be a boring series. However, I for one am expecting quality games to watch from start to finish regardless of what Utah does in Game 1.

Prediction: SA just does what Utah does a little bit better. Spurs in 5.

Wednesday 5/16

New Jersey v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 3-2) – As bad as Game 4 was, and it was pretty ugly, last night’s tilt takes the cake. Low scores don’t bother me if the games are well played, like Utah-Houston in the first round for example. But cripes this was painful to watch. The Nets scored *six* points, shot 1-15 from the field, 4-10 from the free throw line and committed six turnovers in the 4th quarter…and they won. Yikes. Jason Kidd (20 points) led a balanced offensive attack in which NJ had five guys score 12 or more points.

Cleveland on the other hand was dreadful, shooting a paltry 24-72 (33.3%) overall from the field. The Cavs only scored 13 points on 3-17 shooting themselves in the 4th, but somehow they still had a chance to win anyway. Cleveland ended up blowing a plethora of opportunities to steal this one after a 3-pointer by Larry Hughes cut a 22 point 3rd quarter lead to nine with 4:31 to play. LeBron James (5-14) and Hughes (3-17) shot a combined 25.8% from the field, and after Zydrunas Ilgauskas (16) and James (20), no other Cav tallied more than 8 points. Yuck.

Even though I may be letting my peeps down here, I have to admit that this series has become pretty much unwatchable for me. I was never a fan of the Bad Boys or the New York and Miami teams of yore, and this mess is giving me flashbacks to those days. That said, I think this one goes the full seven games unless Bron has an otherworldly performance on Friday.

San Antonio v Phoenix (Spurs up 3-2) – In what turned out to be a surprisingly competitive game last night, SA used a 17 to 6 closing kick to outlast the gritty gutty Suns. The Spurs outscored Phoenix 32 to 23 in the 4th quarter and 55 to 41 in the second half. The Suns deserve tons of credit for their performance though. Phoenix coach Mike D’Antoni used basically six players with Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Raja Bell all playing 46 minutes or more. If Leandro Barbosa (3-12 from the field) has a halfway decent game, the Suns probably win.

D’Antoni also deserves credit for two extremely successful adjustments he’s made so far. The first is putting Marion on Tony Parker after TP shot 14-22 from the field in Game 1. Since then Mr. Longoria is shooting only 40.6% and seems to have lost all his confidence. The next, and by far the most critical, is double-teaming Tim Duncan as soon as he catches the ball in the post. Phoenix debuted this late in Game 4 when Duncan was in foul trouble and it seemed to frustrate him a little. In Game 5 they started early in the 3rd quarter when Tim got off to a hot start. TD still played his normal game, but this tactic seemed to completely disrupt the Spurs offensive flow.

Which brings me to SA. Man-o-man did they ever look tight – dare I say nervous – for the majority of last night’s contest. Their perimeter players looked flat out confused about what to do after Duncan was doubled, and no one could make a jump shot until the 9:47 mark of the final stanza. Manu Ginobili deserves the lion’s share of the credit since he had a monster 4th quarter. Manu had 5 rebounds, scored 15 points on 3-4 shooting (2-3 threes), but most importantly he was 7-7 from the free throw line. While Ginobili was great, Michael Finley and the much maligned Bruce Bowen really hit the two biggest shots of the night. Fin’s deep three with 5:03 to play started the Spurs 17 to 6 finish and Bowen’s three with :36 seconds left sealed the deal.

As this series shifts back to the Alamo I can’t help but think that SA’s closing mojo has left them. I can’t remember the last time I saw the Spurs flummoxed in any tough situation, especially something as routine as Timmy being double-teamed. It goes without saying that SA coach Gregg Popovich has some serious work to do in this area. For the Suns I expect Amare Stoudemire to be on a mission in Game 6 and have his best performance of this post season. This is where the loss of Robert Horry is really going to hurt the Spurs. Those two factors are why I see this series going the full seven and the NBA getting their wish. (Did I really just type that?)

Tuesday 5/15

Chicago v Detroit (Pistons up 3-2) – It’s suddenly “uh-oh” time in Motown again as the unpredictable nature of this post season continues. The difference this time around from Game 4 is that the Bulls straight up took it to Detroit. Chicago shot an unreal 72.2% as a team in the first half. Then, instead of cooling off like they were supposed to, the Bulls blew the Pistons out of the water with a 33 to 20 3rd quarter. The better news for Chicago is that Ben Gordon finally got off the schnide with his best game of the series (28 points on 10-16 shooting & 5-6 on threes). With Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng both playing well again the Bulls now have all their top guns firing. Chicago coach Scott Skiles also deserves credit for giving the ineffective Andres Nocioni’s minutes to rookie Tyrus Thomas. Ty T’s energy and athleticism are definitely proving to be x-factors as this series progresses.

Detroit is singing the same old song, just listen to Mr. Big Shot Chauncey Billups. “I can't say we did that [relax] intentionally, but it's human nature when you get that kind of a cushion to let up a little bit. Our team, as you know, is not that good with cushions. Unfortunately, we've done that time and time again and have had to go on the road to win.” Uh-huh…sound familiar? It reminds me of Miami and their “we’ll be fine” mantra. The Pistons have to be careful here because the Bulls are suddenly making them look very old and slow. I’m done predicting what's next in this series, but what I am sure of is that the United Center crowd is going to be off the charts fired up for Thursday’s Game 6.

You've Got to be Kidding Me

So the NBA decided to suspend Robert Horry for two games and Amare Stoudemire & Boris Diaw for one game each. Umm, ok. First some back story on why this bothers me…

Kobe Bryant gets suspended this season not once, but twice, for what the league office called an “unnatural basketball act”. Fast forward to the playoffs where Bruce Bowen commits two legitimately “unnatural basketball acts” by stepping on Amare’s achilles and kneeing Steve Nash in the yeah boys…and nothing.

Continuing on in the post season Baron Davis gets away clean after a blatantly cheap elbow to Derek Fisher’s head away from the ball. Then a minute later in the same game Jason Richardson drops Memo Okur with a clothesline. Yet somehow J-Rich avoids suspension too. I can't forget to mention Kirk Hinrich, who threw a left handed jab to Flip Murray's groin...crickets...tumbleweeds.

My frustration level is reading peak levels because I can’t tell the difference between what Horry and Richardson did in the least. Robert supposedly got the second game for his forearm to Raja Bell (who of course wasn't reprimanded at all) in the fracas afterwards. WHAT?!?! I fail to see how in the hell Horry’s defensive forearm (take a look at it and tell me it wasn’t self defense) is any different from Baron’s elbow?

If my point isn’t clear, I’m upset with Commissioner David Stern and league disciplinarian Stu Jackson over their inconsistencies when it comes to what warrants a suspension and what doesn’t. Maybe this is revisionist history, but I always felt like I knew who was going to get what post mortem. After this year though, I can honestly say I have no clue…and I don’t see how anyone else can say they do.

The icing on the cake for me is that the image conscious NBA just opened themselves up for a double barrel assault of conspiracy theories while at the same time ruining the pseudo NBA Finals. I’ll even get the party started by suggesting that Horry was given two games so that San Antonio is at a disadvantage for Game 6 when Phoenix is back at full strength.

This whole thing just pisses me off royally because the NBA can’t seem to get out its own way. Who in their right mind was going to complain about Amare, Boris & Robert all being allowed to finish the series? Especially when Bowen, Davis, Richardson & Hinrich were already shown leniency for similar actions.

(By the way, I'm not even mentioning that Bowen (again) and Tim Duncan were spared after briefly leaving the bench when Francisco Elson and James Jones *almost* got into it. While Stu conceded that Duncan should not have been on the playing court, no suspension was dished out because the Elson/Jones tangle was deemed not to be an “altercation”.)

Ah, whatever…

Monday 5/14

New Jersey v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 3-1) – Cleveland escapes the Swamp with a split in what was an ugly, defense oriented, 90’s style post season slug fest. LeBron James was great again (30 points, 9 rebounds & 7 assists), but he did everything he could to lose the game. In the final 6:46 Bron was 2-6 from the free throw line and 1-4 from the field with a turnover. Not exactly what you expect from a “closer”. Good thing for James that his counterpart on the Nets is shakier than Uncle Junior after a double shot of espresso.

When Vince Carter wasn’t engaged in talking junk with Sasha Pavlovic, he was busy shooting 1-7 from the field in the 4th quarter and turning the ball over twice in the final :46 seconds. Carter’s final possession with :10 seconds left and NJ down two was just plain awful. He somehow managed to let ERIC SNOW force him into losing the ball out of bounds. Why he just didn’t raise up and shoot over Snow I’ll never know. VC wasn’t alone in his utter ineptitude though. Vince, Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd shot a combined 11-48 from the field (22.9%), including 1-13 in the 4th quarter. As a team the Nets did not make a shot from the field in the final 6:58 of the game and wasted a career playoff high 25 on 11-14 shooting from Mikki Moore.

I’m sure that Kidd and RJ will bounce back in Game 5, but I can’t help but notice that NJ just looks old. It’s also tough to see the Nets rallying back when Carter is shooting 34.1% (31-91) in the series. NJ President Rod Thorn is kidding himself if he thinks the return of Nenad Krstic and the further development of rookies Marcus Williams and Josh Boone is going to make the Nets a contender. Suddenly breaking this squad up doesn’t look like such a bad idea.

San Antonio v Phoenix (tied 2-2) – The Suns came through with a *huge* win last night to take back home court advantage and even up the series. What was extra impressive is that Phoenix won playing the Spurs style. The Suns closed the game on a 12 to 1 run and outscored SA 32 to 18 in the 4th quarter. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire overcame their individual difficulties (8 turnovers for Nash & 5 fouls for Amare) and were nails down the stretch, running the two man game to perfection. Watching Steve drop two behind the back dimes (in the lane no less) to Stoudemire who completed some very tough finishes in traffic was a sight to see. Phoenix definitely crossed a mental bridge against their nemesis in Game 4.

For the Spurs it was a combination of poor coaching decisions and Tim Duncan stinking up the joint. Duncan had five turnovers and two offensive fouls in the final stanza while only going 2-3 from the field. Timmy also had to sit from 8:55 to 7:33 after his fourth foul and from 5:35 to 2:42 after his fifth. Which brings me to SA coach Gregg Popovich. Not only did Pop wait far too long to reinsert Tim after his fifth foul, but he also failed in an area that he usually excels; designing plays after time outs. With the Spurs down one and :53 seconds to go he draws up a play for Michael Finley to get a jumper? Now if Finley was hot I could see it, but he wasn’t (5-12 FG). Then with SA down three and :32 seconds left Pop runs a clear out for Manu Ginobili (3-14 FG) who promptly throws up an off balance runner. My question: HOW CAN DUNCAN NOT TOUCH THE BALL ON EITHER OF THOSE POSSESSIONS?

I’m sure all the talk will be about Robert Horry’s forearm shiver that sent Nash flying when the outcome was already decided. Stupid play on Robert’s part, but what he did was no worse than what Jason Richardson did to Memo Okur in the other Western Semifinal. Horry was ejected and assessed a flagrant two, and I don’t expect him to be suspended. The bigger question is what the NBA does with Boris Diaw and Amare, both of whom *technically* left the bench to posture on Steve’s behalf. As Tim Hardaway would say, it’s going to be “very interesting”.

There are certain people out there, and you know who you are, that will always find a way to bash the NBA no matter what. Well I’m here to tell ya that this series has already delivered the goods big time. Granted, I’m an NBA cheerleader, but you don’t read me typing about how everyone should be watching Chicago-Detroit, do you? The next two to three games of this series are going to be instant classics, trust me.

Sunday 5/13

Chicago v Detroit (Pistons up 3-1) – The Bulls managed to stay alive and avoid the sweep yesterday in Game 4 by not imploding under pressure for once. Luol Deng (10-15 FG, 25 points & 13 rebounds) and Kirk Hinrich (7-15 FG, 19 points & 10 assists) both played well and Chicago may have cleared a daunting mental hurdle with this victory.

This was the first time in this post season that the “normal” Detroit Pistons showed up. By that I mean the nonchalant bunch that thinks they can make all the plays down the stretch to eek out wins. If the boys from Motown had played with the same intensity Sunday that they did in Game 1, this series would be over already. It also didn’t help the Pistons cause when Rasheed Wallace (4-16 FG), Chauncey Billups (5-14) and Richard Hamilton (4-12) couldn’t throw it in the ocean.

I still think this one is over in Game 5, but the Bulls may play free and easy now that they’ve gotten over the hump. And if the Pistons give another blasé effort, this series may yet return to the Windy City.

Golden State v Utah (Jazz up 3-1) – Utah went back to what got them here by riding the inside presence of Carlos Boozer (13-19 FG, 34 points & 12 rebounds) to an overpowering win. Deron Williams (20 points, 13 assists & 6 rebounds) out played Baron Davis (15 points, 7 assists & 4 steals), but Derek Fisher scoring 14 of his 21 points in the 4th quarter, including three daggers in the final 5:54, really sealed the deal. The Jazz closed the game on a 22 to 10 run and outscored the Warriors 40 to 23 overall with only *one* turnover in the final stanza.

Those 4th quarter numbers, along with Davis, Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson shooting a combined 14-43 (32.6%) from the field, seem to suggest that GS is tiring from a physical standpoint. Further proof of fatigue, this time mental, was issued when B Diddy dropped D Fish with an elbow to the right ear with 1:37 to play. Then J-Rich got in the act by clotheslining Memo Okur with just :37 seconds remaining. Richardson was issued a flagrant two and ejected immediately while Baron was not whistled for a foul at all.

You can’t count the Warriors out just yet (roster intact) with the way they shoot threes, but a sure sign that things aren’t going well is that GS coach Don Nelson has adjusted *his* lineup and rotation, and not the other way around. Nellie started out with Andris Biedrins in the middle but has now added Al Harrington to the mix as his main PF. This gives GS a “traditional” starting lineup and steers them away from the “small ball” that got them here. Chalk up another victory for Utah, and more specifically coach Jerry Sloan, for making the Warriors bend to their style and pace of play.

Saturday 5/12

New Jersey v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 2-1) – After being killed on the backboards in the first two games, the Nets out rebounded Cleveland 43 to 30 overall and 11 to 5 on the offensive glass in scratching out their first victory of the series. Jason Kidd was phenomenal once again tallying his second triple-double of the post season (23 points, 14 assists, 13 rebounds & 5-6 on 3-pointers). Kidd had that look in his eye from the start, like he would not let NJ lose, and he didn’t.

The Cavs had a few chances to get back in the game and possibly steal this one, but every time they’d get within striking distance they’d make a succession of silly mistakes. Bad shots, careless turnovers, stupid fouls, you name it they did it. It’s tough to win on the road in the playoffs performing like that. To make matters worse, LeBron James was 5-16 from the field in scoring his career post season low of 18.

The onus is now on Cleveland coach Mike Brown to adjust his offensive sets because the Nets Lawrence Frank had him pegged in Game 3. Frank was calling out the Cavs plays from the sidelines in the second half and telling his players where to be and what to do. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Brown’s job may be on the line here. If Cleveland were to go on and lose this series because of his lame offense, that could be the final nail in his coffin.

San Antonio v Phoenix (Spurs up 2-1) – This series shifted into a whole ‘nother gear in Game 3 as it became apparent that these two clubs do not like each other. That’s a good thing too. The NBA needs a genuine rivalry and what could be better than having it between the league’s two best squads? Tim Duncan (33 points, 19 rebounds & 3 blocks) proved that Kurt Thomas could not stop him, but it was the appearance of Manu Ginobili that had the biggest impact on the outcome. After “El Contusion” was raked across his left eye by Shawn Marion he was visibly angry and went on to score 10 points in the final 1:58 of the 3rd quarter. That finishing flourish pretty much secured the momentum for SA for the remainder of the contest.

Amare Stoudemire managed to log only 21 minutes due to foul trouble after shooting his mouth off in the media calling Ginobili and Bruce Bowen “dirty players”. (Note: Amare still had 21 points.) There’s enough blame to go around however as Steve Nash had an off night missing his first nine shots, going scoreless in the first half and not hitting a shot from the field until the 5-minute mark of the 3rd quarter. Said Nash, “I just had a bad game, and it's frustrating to have it in such a big game but it happens from time to time.”

I have to wonder how the Suns are going to play in Game 4 because this series has definitely taken on a tenor that the Spurs prefer. Phoenix wants and needs to play fast but I get the feeling that they suddenly want to prove that they can slug it out in the trenches with SA, and that’s a mistake. The first five minutes of play Monday will tell the tale.

Friday 5/11

Golden State v Utah (Jazz up 2-1) – The Warriors once again proved how tough they are to beat at home. The Oakland crowd just propels them to new heights, there’s really no denying it at this point. Even though GS ended up winning Game 3 by twenty, they were only +2 points combined in quarters one, three and four. Granted, the NBA does count baskets scored in the 2nd quarter, and that’s where the Warriors took over the game outscoring Utah 40-22. Another huge advantage for GS was behind the 3-point arc, where the Warriors enjoyed a 27 point bulge (15 makes to 6). The Jazz went on two separate runs in the second half that almost made the game competitive, but each time Baron Davis (32 points, 9 assists, 6 steals & 4 rebounds) slammed the door shut in their faces.

If I’m Utah coach Jerry Sloan I’m not too worried because the adjustments for Game 4 should be simple to execute. First, the Jazz need to do a better job taking care of the basketball. 23 turnovers in the zoo that is Oracle Arena just won’t get the job done. Deron Williams and Derek Fisher staying out of foul trouble will help that, as will the possible return of rookie Dee Brown. Next, Carlos Boozer absolutely *must* touch the ball more. Booz had only one shot in the 1st quarter, three in the 2nd, five in the 3rd and one in the 4th for ten total (he was 8-10 from the field). That’s not going to cut it, especially when Carlos had been averaging 19.1 attempts per game in the post season before last night. If Utah can do those two things Sunday I think we’re in for another classic game. If not, another blitzkrieg may be on the horizon.

Thursday 5/10

Chicago v Detroit (Pistons up 3-0) – The Bulls gave it a valiant effort in Game 3, but did not have enough for Detroit in the end. After racing out to a 44-28 halftime lead, Chicago fell apart in the second half getting outscored 53-30. Included in that was a 32-17 meltdown in the 3rd quarter capped by a Rasheed Wallace 3-pointer at the buzzer that cut the Bulls lead to one. Game over. Chicago shot a miserable 10-41 (24.39%) in the second half and an unfathomable 4-25 (16%) in the 4th quarter. You can call that good Piston D, but the Bulls were also playing with their hands around their throats.

I didn’t think it was possible to play three consecutive games in the post season with your head completely up your arse, but Kirk Hinrich has proved me wrong. The “Captain” has been plain old awful in this series. At first glance his numbers don’t look that bad (10 points, 6.7 assists & 7 rebounds), but they do not tell the entire tale. Hinrich has not only completely lost his confidence, but he also seems befuddled at how to deal with the pressure that goes with the second round of the playoffs. He was so bad last night that my estimation of him as a player dropped a notch or two. Seriously, he played scared.

I know I just took it out mostly on Kirk (shooting 41.4% for the series), but Ben Gordon (28.1%), Luol Deng (38%) and Andres Nocioni (32%) have been equally out classed by Detroit as well. Those are arguably Chicago’s four best players too, which explains the Bulls struggles to contend with the Pistons. Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Sheed have absolutely owned their individual matchups with Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Noch and P.J. Brown/Tyrus Thomas respectively. That’s why Chicago GM John Paxson has some tough decisions to make this summer. Pax can either keep this group together and hope they improve with experience while at the same time age takes its toll on Detroit’s core. Or he can get proactive and try to land someone like…say…Pau Gasol. D’oh!

Wednesday 5/9

Golden State v Utah (Jazz up 2-0) – News flash! If you’re not watching this series, you should be. The first two contests have been tremendously entertaining, with last night’s tilt being the first overtime game of the post season. Deron Williams was nails all night long (17 points & 14 assists) and hit the game tying shot with 2.3 seconds left in regulation. This was after Williams played only :59 seconds in the 1st quarter when he picked up two quick fouls defending Baron Davis. It’s D Wil time baby!

There were several solid performances from all over Utah’s roster, but team rebounding was once again the difference. The Jazz set a playoff record for most rebounds in a game with 60. That’s right, *six-zero*. The Warriors had only 32, bringing the totals after two games to a stunning 114 to 68 overall and 39 to 27 on the offensive glass. If people were wondering why I put so much emphasis on rebound differential, you need look no further than the fact that three out of the four series’ right now are being decided on the backboards.

(Sidebar: three of the four series’ have also been very competitive.)

GS was pretty soundly out played statistically speaking last night, but they still had a chance to win if they make some free throws (they missed six in the final 7:33 of the 4th quarter). What is keeping the Warriors alive is their 3-point shooting. GS hoisted 40 threes in Game 2, which was the second most attempts in a playoff game ever. Even though the percentages are even, the Warriors have made 12 more than Utah (27 to 15). That’s why GS is never out of a game. They can hit you with a flurry of threes, and before you know it a double-digit lead has evaporated in a matter of a minute or two or less.

As the series moves to Oakland I look for the crazies of Oracle Arena to make huge difference in the Warriors collective confidence. GS will play with more energy, drop some more threes, get a few additional calls and probably blow the Jazz out of at least one game. I expect Utah to have a chance in the other game, but it will come down to which squad plays smarter in crunch time. Overall, there’s a very good chance that we will be heading back to Salt Lake City tied 2-2.

I can’t type about the Jazz without mentioning my boy Andrei Kirilenko. AK-47 has 13 blocks through the first two games. Which is the most since Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon had 13 in the first two games of a first round series between the Rockets and Clippers in 1993.

Tuesday 5/8

New Jersey v Cleveland (Cavaliers up 2-0) – This series is playing out pretty much exactly like I thought it would. Cleveland’s bigs (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden & Anderson Varejao) have absolutely dominated the boards to the tune of 100 to 69 overall. If you thought that was bad, the disparity on the offensive glass is even worse at 39 to 12. Yikes. Obviously the Nets are going to have to clean up that facet of the game to have any chance. NJ coach Lawrence Frank can start with scrapping his zone defense, which has left an undersized Nets crew confused as to who their box out assignments should be.

These contests being closely contested throughout does not surprise me either because these clubs are so evenly matched. What has caught me a little off guard though is how much better the Cavs defense is than NJ’s. The numbers might not show it, but Cleveland has been able to lock the Nets down consistently when they’ve needed big stops. Vince Carter has been pretty much a no-show for NJ thus far shooting 17-49 (34.7%) from the field. This is yet another reason why I like the Cavs, because I’ll take LeBron James (28.5 points, 9.5 assists, 6 rebounds & 2 steals per game this series) over VC in the clutch every single time.

San Antonio v Phoenix (tied 1-1) – The Suns, and more specifically Steve Nash, showed me what they were made of last night by making this a bona fide series. Nash ripped into his teammates after Game 1 with this rant…

“We have to be a little hungrier. I think some of us just didn't have the fire it takes to beat a championship team. How many times can you talk about it? We just have to have a bigger heart and continue to push through these invisible barriers that seem to pop up. I don't know what they are, but sometimes we just don't play as hard as we should.”

(Very Bird-esque, no?)

Like all great leaders, Steve walked his talk right from the start of Game 2. It was evident to me that Nash was not going to let his squad lose come hell or high water. TNT’s Magic Johnson agreed with me saying at halftime…

“This is why Steve Nash has won the MVP the last two years. At eight minutes to go it was a one point game. This man took the game over, had seven points and six assists in the last eight minutes to take it to a seven point lead. That's what a leader does, that's what an MVP is supposed to do.”

Phoenix coach Mike D’Antoni also deserves some major credit for making what I feel is his best post season adjustment to date. Mike inserted Kurt Thomas into the starting lineup and moved James Jones to the bench. While this did shorten the Suns rotation to seven guys, KT’s defense on Tim Duncan was invaluable. Not only did Thomas do an above average job on Duncan, but Amare Stoudemire was freed up from foul trouble danger at the same time.

As the NBA Finals…err…this series shifts to AT&T Center I’m interested to see what kind of effort the Spurs give. In Game 1 SA displayed the single minded focus of a champion, but in Game 2 I didn’t get that same sense. Don’t get me wrong, the Spurs still played relatively hard, but I got the feeling that they were satisfied with their split and accepted their fate (a 20 point loss) rather nonchalantly. I'll leave you with the three individual matchups I’ll be watching closely on Saturday.

1. Raja Bell on Manu Ginobili – Anybody seen Manu...anybody...Bueller?

2. Shawn Marion on Tony Parker – The Matrix did a much better job disrupting TP's flow in Game 2.

3. Kurt Thomas on Tim Duncan – Timmy will be ready for him in Game 3, that much I promise you.

Monday 5/7

> The opening round of the playoffs was just as unpredictable for me as it was on the court. My undefeated first round streak came to screeching halt after three years as I went 4-4. The only saving grace from that shameful record was that in the four series’ I did end up winning, I hit the number of games exactly right. Oh yeah, and my buddy Kenny won big in Vegas betting on the Jazz +5.5 in Game 7 (on my advice).

Cue up the tap dancing music and call me Gregory Hines….

The only person I know of that actually picked Golden State to upset Dallas was Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune. Disclaimer: Anyone who gets his or her “inside” information from the New York Post’s Peter Vecsey should immediately reconsider and start reading Sam’s stuff. Simply put, Smith does not print lies.

Taking Miami over Chicago was just a bad pick, plain and simple. If I hadn’t chosen the Heat to come out of the East back in October, I probably would’ve went with the Bulls. Oh well.

As far as New Jersey-Toronto goes, if the Raptor squad that showed up in Game 6 had shown up in Games 1 to 5, then I think this series goes the other way. But they didn’t, which is why experience is so important in the post season.

Houston-Utah really could have went either way in Game 7, but in the end Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming just did not have enough scoring help around them. I picked against the Jazz here because they had looked so poor down the stretch, but they were able to turn things around *during* the series and become only the 19th road team to win in 97 Game 7’s all time.

So there you have it. This first round probably doesn’t stack up to last year’s in terms of overall quality, but what it lacked in top to bottom drama, it made up for in upsets. And no, I’m not going to rip Dwight Howard, Antawn Jamison, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson/Carmelo Anthony or T-Mac/Yao because basketball is a team game. Now, Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade are another story…

Chicago v Detroit (Pistons up 2-0) – Can you say big V against the little v? Because that’s what this one looks like to me. Detroit has thoroughly dominated the Bulls from start to finish in every aspect of both games. The Pistons are shooting 48.13% overall and 48.65% from three with 18 makes. As opposed to Chicago’s 33.58% and 24.33% with 9 makes respectively. That’s not all. Detroit has out rebounded the Bulls 97 to 68 overall and 29 to 19 on the offensive glass so far. It’s tough to win with disparities like that.

Chicago is going to have to come out in Game 3 and show me something…anything…or else this series is going five games maximum. It’s time for Bulls coach Scott Skiles to earn his money by coming up with the proper adjustments while at the same time restoring his club’s ailing confidence. It’s not going to be easy, that’s for sure.

(P.S. How bad does Miami look now???)

Warriors at Jazz

Regular Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Utah – 45.53% (11th)
Golden State – 46.16% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Utah – +5.48 (1st)
Golden State – -5.01 (30th)

Shooting
Utah – 47.43% (2nd)
Golden State – 46.27% (12th)

3-Point Shooting
Utah – 33.5 (29th)
Golden State – 35.6% (13th)

Free Throw Shooting
Utah – 74.33% (20th)
Golden State – 71.70% (26th)

Turnovers
Utah – 15.57 (20th)
Golden State – 15.96 (23rd)

Fouls
Utah – 25.20 (30th)
Golden State – 23.57 (26th)

Pace Factor
Utah – 94.1 (15th)
Golden State – 101.6 (1st)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Deron Williams v Baron Davis – This could certainly be the main event in terms of matchups. D Wil has really been coming on as of late hitting jumpers, getting into the lane, running the pick & roll and keeping everyone involved. B Diddy was looking like the MVP of the playoffs before straining his right hamstring in Game 6 against Dallas. Both of these guys really make their clubs go; Williams with his decision making and Davis with his energy. The difference between the two really depends on if Baron is 100% healthy or not.

Shooting Guard
Derek Fisher & Gordan Giricek v Monta Ellis – Both Derek and Monta are really PG’s masquerading as SG’s. As such, both serve as their team’s backup PG. Fisher is the reliable veteran that never minds stepping in to take a charge and will make open shots in pressure situations. After breaking out this season, Ellis has been struggling lately on the big stage and seems to have lost his confidence.

Giricek’s 3-point shooing is very important for the Jazz as he is really their lone “true” spot up shooter. Not to be overlooked though is Gira’s defense. He doesn’t back down from a challenge and has surprisingly quick feet.

Small Forward
Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring v Jason Richardson & Mickael Pietrus – This is the other marquee matchup of the series. J-Rich is finally starting to get some of the attention he so rightly deserves, just in time to face the back from hibernation AK-47. Kirilenko being confident in his own game is going to be of major significance for Utah. They are going to need Andrei’s versatility on defense to shut down whoever has the hottest hand on the Warriors. Jason can’t fall in love with his jumper and has to remember to take it to the hole every once in a while.

Harpring faded toward the end of the Houston series, and if he doesn’t rediscover his energy, could find himself on the bench more than he’s used to. Pietrus is a freakish athlete with little or no feel for the game. Mickael can be an x-factor though because he has a tendency to put up big numbers when he breaks out.

Power Forward
Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap v Stephen Jackson & Matt Barnes – While Jackson proved his worth defending Dirk Nowitzki, Booz is an entirely different beast. In fact, I’m not sure there’s anyone on the GS roster that can contain Carlos. It’s true that Boozer will have a tough time chasing around whoever he checks on defense, but the punishment (i.e. fouls) Los is going to dish out down low will more than offset his lack of foot speed. S Jax is going to have to keep walking the razor’s edge in terms of intensity because his teammates feed off his “enthusiasm”.

The bench guys game’s are more similar then you might think. Both are undersized PF’s that hustle and bring instant energy when they step on the court. Barnes is more athletic and is really playing some of his best ball right now. Rookie Millsap is a better rebounder and has that certain knack for being in the right place at the right time.

Center
Memo Okur & Jarron Collins v Al Harrington & Andris Biedrins – Okur is another Jazzman that could have trouble defensively if the Warriors go extremely small (which they inevitably will). With the return of his 3-pont stroke, his ability to find open space and hit clutch shots, Memo is someone that should concern GS. “Big” Al has completely lost his mojo and literally looks befuddled as to where it went. Well, he better find it in a hurry because his team needs his bulk against Utah’s imposing front line.

Biedrins is a guy that figures to see major minutes if Harrington’s funk continues. Andris might play a lot anyway because with his combination of length and quickness he may be the only player that can give Boozer some problems. I don’t look for the plodding Collins to play much if at all.

Coach
Jerry Sloan v Don Nelson – You want to talk about chess matches? These two have a combined 2,267 regular season wins and 148 victories in the post season between them. Now that’s some serious experience. You have to figure that each guy is going to stick to his guns as far as style of play goes. So it boils down to which one adjusts better in game and game-to-game, and I’ll give the nod to Nellie on both of those counts.

Overall

This is a clash of styles between what are probably the two hottest squads in the playoffs right now. Everyone knows about the Warriors spectacular offense, but their defense really came together in the first round. Likewise, the Jazz D has always been stout, but they seemed to rediscover their offensive flow in the last two games against the Rockets. This series also boasts two of the best home court advantages in the entire NBA, which should make for some exciting games.

GS must continue to play with that cocky/fearless swagger, because that’s what got them here in the first place. They’ll also need to continue to hit their threes because any letup in that area and suddenly their offense isn’t as scary. Utah has to keep the tempo where they want it and get physical with the Warriors. In other words, play their normal game. I think the Jazz can do just that for three reasons. One, they won’t make the mistake of attempting to play fast with GS. Two, I expect the Jazz to completely dominate the glass, which will aid them in controlling the pace. And three, Utah matches up much better with the Warriors than the Mavericks did.

Prediction: It seems I’m going against the grain with my pick, but I have to roll with my boys. Jazz in 7.

Nets at Cavs

Regular Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Cleveland – 44.79% (8th)
New Jersey – 44.95% (9th)

Rebound Differential
Cleveland – +3.65 (4th)
New Jersey – -.56 (17th)

Shooting
Cleveland – 44.73% (24th)
New Jersey – 45.67% (18th)

3-Point Shooting
Cleveland – 35.2% (18th)
New Jersey – 36.3% (8th)

Free Throw Shooting
Cleveland – 69.54% (29th)
New Jersey – 72.74% (25th)

Turnovers
Cleveland – 14.35 (7th)
New Jersey – 14.78 (12th)

Fouls
Cleveland – 21.72 (11th)
New Jersey – 22.79 (19th)

Pace Factor
Cleveland – 93.2 (18th)
New Jersey – 93.6 (16th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Larry Hughes & Eric Snow v Jason Kidd & Marcus Williams – With Kidd performing as well as ever coming off a series where he just averaged a triple-double, keeping him in check has to be a high priority. The good news for the Cavaliers is that Hughes is well equipped to do so. Larry has the length, quickness and defensive ability to makes things difficult for Jason. On offense Hughes needs to have a good mix of driving and hitting open shots to keep Kidd from roaming.

Williams has looked very shaky and somewhat lost in the post season. So even with his offensive limitations, the bench matchup goes to Snow because of experience and defense.

Shooting Guard
Sasha Pavlovic & Daniel Gibson v Vince Carter & Antoine Wright – There’s no doubt that this matchup heavily favors the Nets. It goes without saying that Carter can do so much more offensively than Pavlovic. But keep in mind that Sasha earned his starting spot by playing good solid defense above all else. Now he can’t stop Vince, but Pavlovic’s tenacity could frustrate VC as the series wears on. Sasha is another one that must make open shots, especially from three, to keep Carter honest.

Wright is a guy that has never come close to realizing his potential and is probably lucky to be in the NBA at this point. Rookie Gibson has been ever so slowly regaining the form that made him a starter mid-season before he got hurt (left big toe). “Boobie” could be the x-factor off the bench for the Cavs with his ability to penetrate and knock down open jumpers.

Small Forward
LeBron James & Ira Newble v Richard Jefferson & Boki Nachbar – This is the main event pitting two super-athletic players against one another. Jefferson has been showing signs recently of coming around from the right ankle injury that derailed his season. While RJ will still be a threat offensively, I expect him to focus mainly on defending King James. Bron will have to do what he normally does on offense, but he’s also going to have to step up on defense and check either Richard or Vince during crunch time on big possessions.

Nachbar has become increasingly important for NJ as their sixth man and one reliable spot up 3-point shooter. While Boki will never be mistaken for a great defender, he can occasionally put the ball on the floor and get the hoop and also has a nice touch from mid-range. Newble hasn’t played much most of the season, but he will see time in this series strictly as a defensive stopper.

Power Forward
Drew Gooden & Donyell Marshall v Mikki Moore & Cliff Robinson – Gooden has got to be one of the most underappreciated players in the entire NBA. True, he’s a bit of a card (notice his “ducktail” hairdo), but athletic 6'10 guys that can get you 15 points and 10 rebounds a night while shooting above 50% don’t grow on trees. Moore’s defense, energy and interior presence after Nenad Krstic was lost for the season (left knee) pretty much saved the Nets. Mikki isn’t a threat offensively, but he’s a high percentage shooter that can finish around the rim when he gets the opportunity. Look for the battle between these two to be very entertaining.

Marshall and Robinson are both veteran big men that like to hang out on the perimeter and fire threes. Coincidentally, neither plays very much anymore. While both Donyell and Uncle Cliffy are still capable of having a big game, I don’t look for either of them to see many minutes.

Center
Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao v Jason Collins & Josh Boone – Big Z picked the right time of year to step up his game, and he did it against two pretty solid defenders in Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood. Now “Twin” is a cut above those two when it comes to post defense, but Ilgauskas still has three inches on him, which is more than enough for Zydrunas to get his hook shot off. Big Z is too plodding to be a great defender, but it won’t matter against Collins who brings absolutely nothing to the table offensively.

Varejao is Cleveland’s sixth man and comes with energy, enthusiasm and toughness every single night. “Sideshow Bob” is a classic instigator, great at taking charges and a decent rebounder. Rookie Boone started to come on late in the season for NJ. Josh has good hands and a knack for finishing in traffic, but his inexperience and lack of defensive intensity make him somewhat of a liability.

Coach
Mike Brown v Lawrence Frank – While Brown has done a marvelous job getting the Cavs to play defense and rebound, his offense is…shall we say...less than imaginative. Mike’s designed plays after timeouts are regularly bad and his in game adjusting is poor at best. Conversely, Frank is a true student of the game whose work ethic when it comes to preparation is unmatched. Lawrence is also one of the better guys when it comes to adjusting in game and game-to-game.

Overall

These squads are very evenly matched when it comes to style of play, depth and defense. Each is a half court club that will run occasionally and relies heavily on their top six players. The differences as I see them are the Nets experience and the Cavs size inside. While NJ has been here more, this Cleveland group is also familiar with big post season stage themselves. What I don’t see is how the Nets are going to compete with the Cavs on the backboards.

NJ definitely has a chance here because they have three of the best four players in the series. I foresee many close contests that are decided over the last couple of possessions. This would seem to favor the Nets as well, until you take into account one Mr. LeBron James. I’m of the mind that the best of Bron is yet to come. I mean, he had to be dogging it for the majority of the season for a reason, right? I also don’t like counting on Vince Carter to come up big consistently when the pressure is on down the stretch.

Prediction: I’m not picking against the competitive fire and greatness of James with home court advantage. Cleveland in 7.

Spurs at Suns

Regular Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Phoenix – 45.69% (14th)
San Antonio – 44.26% (4th)

Rebound Differential
Phoenix – -2.34 (24th)
San Antonio – +1.58 (10th)

Shooting
Phoenix – 49.42% (1st)
San Antonio – 47.39% (3rd)

3-Point Shooting
Phoenix – 39.9% (1st)
San Antonio – 38.1% (4th)

Free Throw Shooting
Phoenix – 80.79% (1st)
San Antonio – 75.05% (17th)

Turnovers
Phoenix – 14.50 (9th)
San Antonio – 13.85 (4th)

Fouls
Phoenix – 20.23 (3rd)
San Antonio – 19.36 (1st)

Pace Factor
Phoenix – 98.1 (3rd)
San Antonio – 92.0 (27th)

Individual Matchups

(Note: since Phoenix only plays eight guys I jimmied with their lineup some by giving preference to the guys that play the most.)

Point Guard
Steve Nash v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – I’m well aware that Nash is everyone’s darling, and rightly so. With apologies to MMM, the guy flat out makes everyone he plays with better. That said Steve is up against it here. Parker just got done proving he could consistently stay in front of Allen Iverson on defense, so checking Nash really poses no problems for TP. On offense Tony has historically blown by Steve at will, and I expect that pattern to continue here.

Vaughn was brought in just for this reason. Look for Jacque to get minutes as a defensive specialist against both Nash and Barbosa.

Shooting Guard
Leandro Barbosa v Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili – If Finley’s shot isn’t falling his lack of foot speed renders him pretty much useless in this series. Since winning the 6th Man of the Year award Leandro has been playing with even more confidence, which is a scary thought. I actually think a solid argument can be made that Barbosa is the most important Sun. His speed is unmatched, even by Parker, and when LB’s is hitting his 3-pointers he is practically unguardable.

Ginobili thrives playing against Phoenix and their wide open helter-skelter style. Manu should have no problems getting to basket on offense, but who does he guard on defense?

Small Forward
Raja Bell & James Jones v Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry – Raja are Bruce their team’s defensive specialists and designated spot up 3-point shooters. In what will be a very interesting matchup to watch, I’m looking for Bell to guard Ginobili as soon as Manu gets off the bench. I expect Bowen to check pretty much everyone on the Suns except Amare, which will certainly test BB’s athleticism and endurance.

JJ starts but has only averaged 18.8 minutes a night in the post season thus far. He’s actually a decent defender, but is really only out there for his 3-point shooting. I imagine Barry will be glued to the pine for the most part because he’s just too slow.

Power Forward
Shawn Marion & Boris Diaw v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – Duncan is going to have to be at his defensive best against either Marion or Stoudemire. I suspect Tim won’t really guard Amare full time until the last six minutes of each 4th quarter. This leaves him chasing Shawn around the rest of the time. As impossible as it may seem at first, Duncan should be ok against the Matrix because Phoenix doesn’t run many plays for Marion. The tough part for TD will be keeping Shawn off the offensive glass. The media loves to tout Trix as a great defender, but I get the feeling Timmy can score on him any time he wants.

Diaw and Horry both do so many little things for their clubs that their contributions can’t be measured in stats alone. The difference in the two is that this you know what you’ll get from “Big Shot Bob” because this is *his* time of year. With Boris it’s a toss up. He can look great one game and lost the next. Each of these guys is very versatile and can defend multiple positions, but the edge has to go to Horry here.

Center
Amare Stoudemire & Kurt Thomas v Francisco Elson & Fabricio Oberto – At first glance you look at Amare-Cisco and mismatch jumps into your mind. “Not so fast my friend.” Elson has the bulk AND the quickness (not to mention six fouls) to hang with Stoudemire. I’m not saying he can stop him, but the Dutchman will do a better job than most think. Amare really needs to show patience as Cisco and Fab will try and soften him up/frustrate him for when Duncan takes over in the 4th.

Thomas and Oberto are both smart players, adequate rebounders and have nice mid-range jump shots. The difference being that Kurt is the better defender and Fab the better passer. Honestly though, I don’t think we’ll see much of either because the game will just be too fast for them.

Coach
Mike D’Antoni v Gregg Popovich – If there is a gigantic mismatch in the series, this is it. Pop is one of the best motivators in the business, has tons of post season/big game experience, is great at designing out of bounds plays and has the rare combo of being able to adjust in game and game-to-game equally as well. D’Antoni lives by the motto “This is who we are.” That doesn’t really lend itself to strategic modification, does it? Furthermore, I’ve seen Mike D get that deer-in-headlights look more than once in pressure situations.

Overall

I have no issues with typing that this is most likely the de facto NBA Championship. I know the winner has two more rounds left after this, but make no mistake, these *are* the best two squads left running in the post season. An intriguing subplot that needs to be mentioned here is that this could be the last waltz for the Suns as we know them. Whether it is chemistry, salary cap or luxury tax issues, there are many rumblings out of Phoenix that this group is being broken up win or lose. If Nash and company needed any extra motivation to get the job done, there it is.

Much like the Suns defense is underrated, so is the Spurs offense. Therefore this series is going to come down to who can impose their will on the other more consistently. Phoenix wants to run and gun and San Antonio likes to grind it out. While the Spurs will occasionally get beat up and down the floor, I feel they will be able to control the tempo better over the course of the series by out-executing the Suns in the half court.

Prediction: SA’s depth and defense make the difference. Spurs in 6.

Thursday 5/3

Utah v Houston (tied 3-3) – It was tumultuous year for me and my boy Andrei Kirilenko. From complaining to sulking to crying he did everything is his power to make me abandon him. Then he plays a game like this I remember how my man-crush on him started in the first place. AK-47 was back to flying all over place, making life miserable for Tracy McGrady and blocking Yao Ming (oh yes he did!) from the weak side. It wasn’t quite a 5x5, but 14 points (on 6-10 shooting), 5 blocks, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals is nothing to sneeze at. When AK brings this type of energy his teammates feed off it and the Jazz are very tough to beat. Oh yeah, did I mention he’s doing all this with a fractured left thumb?

Memo Okur finally broke out of his slump hitting by 4-7 threes and rookie Paul Millsap provided Utah the kick in the pants they needed in first half. For the Rockets it was the same old story. Shane Battier (4 points), Juwan Howard (6) and Luther Head (4) shot a combined 4-12. Yuck! Only Rafer Alston (13) stepped up to support Yao and T-Mac, but Skip-to-my-Lou shot a putrid 5-14.

C’mon, who doesn’t love a Game 7? A funny bounce here, a bad call there or a lucky break; any of these things can determine the outcome. This series has lived up to its advanced billing for me. I’m probably in the minority, but I’ve really enjoyed watching this one unfold. As I’ve already typed, I think McGrady will have a special performance and carry his squad to the second round for the first time in his career. But if you’re looking for something under the radar to follow on Saturday, keep your eye on who has a better game, Battier or Matt Harpring. It’s usually a supporting player who has a big game out of nowhere that swings the balance in Game 7.

Bulls at Pistons

> I’m going to break from my playoff norm and do my previews a little differently this round. It remains to be seen if this is actually an improvement or not, so feel free to comment if you’d like.

Regular Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 44.49% (6th)
Chicago – 43.53% (2nd)

Rebound Differential
Detroit – -.65 (18th)
Chicago – +2.78 (6th)

Shooting
Detroit – 45.37% (20th)
Chicago – 45.72% (16th)

3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 34.4% (26th)
Chicago – 38.8% (2nd)

Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.41% (7th)
Chicago – 73.36% (23rd)

Turnovers
Detroit – 12.20 (1st)
Chicago – 15.97 (24th)

Fouls
Detroit – 20.39 (5th)
Chicago – 23.26 (22nd)

Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.7 (30th)
Chicago – 96.0 (7th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Kirk Hinrich & Chris Duhon – In a series filled with marquee matchups, Billups-Hinrich might be the best. They both play solid defense, know how to run a team, have good outside shots and are fearless in big situations. Chaunc gets the edge in experience and Kirk in athleticism.

What’s weird is even the bench players are carbon copies of one another right down to the experience/athleticism comparison. If I had to choose I’m taking Duhon though.

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Ben Gordon & Thabo Sefolosha – Rip and Ben both use constant movement without the ball to free themselves up for their deadly jumpers. While neither really drives all the way to the hole, both can get create their own shot off the dribble if need be. I’m taking Hamilton here for two reasons: size (Gordon is generously listed at 6-3) and defense. Rip is not a great one-on-one defender, but he is very adept at team defense.

If you’ve if even remotely read my stuff, you know who I like off the bench here. Sefolosha is a little raw, but he’s going to contribute more than the somewhat disinterested Flip.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v Luol Deng & Adrian Griffin – After watching Luol “open up a can” on the Miami Heat, I’m sure Tay will be ready for his assignment here. This is really the biggest individual matchup as I see things. Deng is usually longer than most guys he goes up against, but Prince can equal his length and is probably the quicker of the two. If Tay is able to contain Luol, a HUGE advantage goes to the Pistons. Also watch out for Prince’s underrated offense possible making Deng work harder than he wants to on defense.

Carlos has really been coming on lately. He does a lot of the little things well and has sneaky good athleticism. Couple those factors with Griffin being glued to the bench, and this is a solid mark in favor of Delfino.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Antonio McDyess v P.J. Brown & Andres Nocioni – Brown is out there solely for his defense, rebounding and interior presence. There is no way P.J. can contend with Sheed on the perimeter. Also, Brown’s lack of offense will allow Wallace to play a one man zone on defense. Big time advantage to Sheed here.

I had been thinking this bench matchup was going to be the real deal until I read that Nocioni’s right foot (plantar fasciitis) is acting up again. Said Andres, “I feel pain in the foot right now after the games, but not during the game.” Umm, ok. The Bulls look to Noc for energy, enthusiasm and toughness. Without him, they just are not the same squad. I’m sure Dyess will do what he does, but it’s really the Nocioni situation that needs to monitored closely.

Center
Chris Webber & Dale Davis/Nazr Mohammed v Ben Wallace & Tyrus Thomas – I’m already sick of the Wallace against his old club angle, and it hasn’t even started yet. This ranks as third biggest individual battle, but not because it’s so important. It’s more because C-Web and Big Ben affect the game in completely different ways. Chris with his passing/craftiness and Ben with his defense/hustle. While you can be pretty certain what Wallace is going to contribute, Webber is an utter wild card. This will be C-Web’s biggest stage since his Sacramento days and I really don’t know what to expect from him. He can do anything from find the fountain of youth and tilt the scale toward the Pistons or get completely embarrassed by his lack of movement. I’m calling this one a push until I see some action.

I included both Davis and Mohammed because I’m not really sure which will play, but I figure one of them will have to at some point. I’d play Nazr myself because Dale has been done for four years now. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas is the x-factor in the series. The Pistons have no one to match his athleticism, and if paired with Wallace up front could reek havoc on the aging Detroit front line.

Coach
Flip Saunders v Scott Skiles – While Flip has the big game experience advantage, I’m not really sure he’s a better “leader of men” than Scott. Skiles isn't afraid to yank any of his players in any situation and is a high quality in-game manager. Conversely Saunders has a more laissez faire demeanor with his guys and doesn’t always seem to command their respect because of it. This is a very even matchup in my mind but I’ll give the slight edge to Flip because he’s just a little bit better at adjusting between games.

Overall

This is without question the main event in the East. You can expect a knock-down-drag-out brawl from start to finish. While normally that is a recipe for some boring ball, I don’t think you’ll see that here. As similar as these squads are built and play this series intrigues me because it’s really the old guard versus the new. Plus this isn’t like the New York-Miami snooze fests of the 90’s because both of these clubs will get out run when given the opportunity.

If the Bulls were getting the Pistons after a tough series I think that would swing the pendulum in their favor (which is why the #2 seed was so important for Chicago) based on their youth. But being that both teams will be well rested for the opening tip, that has to favor Detroit. Experience is the other factor in play here. The Pistons have tons of it, the Bulls not so much. I expect that Chicago will try to keep the tempo high, but inevitably the game will slow down, and that’s where Detroit will flourish. I don't expect the Pistons tendency to coast will play a part here, and in the end I think they are going to be better at playing their style than the Bulls will be.

Prediction: Home court carries the day. Detroit in 7.

Tuesday 5/1

New Jersey v Toronto (Nets up 3-2) – After watching a near text book display of how to blow a big lead over the final three quarters, the Raptors avoided a major league choke job and held on to force a Game 6. Toronto has absolutely no clue how to close out a playoff game. None. They looked so flustered and tight out there it almost made me uncomfortable to watch. Anyway, Jose Calderon saved the Canadian’s bacon by blowing up for a career high 25 points on 12-20 shooting while dishing out 8 assists.

(Sidebar: NJ was down 2 and had possession with :14 seconds left and got the ball to Vince Carter. So what does VC do? He dribbles around the perimeter, plays hot potato with Jason Kidd a couple of times and then ends up passing to Boki Nachbar for the game winning attempt. Huh? I almost couldn’t believe my eyes and wondered if Vince realized that Juan Dixon was guarding him. JUAN DIXON! Call me crazy, but I’d like to see my “star” player take it to the hole in that situation.)

The big question for Friday’s game at Continental Airlines Arena is the status of Calderon (right ankle) and T.J. Ford (stinger). I know Darrick Martin is a veteran and all, but he is a colossal drop off from Jose and T.J. For the Raps to have any chance to win they are going to need Chris Bosh to play 40+ minutes and go for like 35 points, 15 rebounds and 5 blocks. Seriously, this is one of those career defining moments for the young Bosh. He can either stink for the fourth consecutive game and get a reputation as a non-playoff performer. Or he can come out and dominate like he did to open the series and be deemed one of the “next”.

T-Dot hasn’t shown anything that would lead me to believe they are capable of winning an elimination game on the road. Couple that with the Nets big game experience being the main difference between these two squads…and…well…you get my drift.

Golden State v Dallas (Warriors up 3-2) – So I wanna know, did Dirk Nowitzki finally play “big” enough for his critics? With the Mavericks down 9 with 3:06 left to play Dirk hit a three, blocked a shot and then hit another three. All in bang-bang-bang succession, and suddenly Dallas was down only 3. The Mavs closed the game on a 15-0 run in the final 3:06 and the Big German scored 12 of those points. Can we refer to him as the MVP again now?

Dallas was certainly on the brink but Josh Howard (23 points on 10-16, 8 rebounds, 5 assists & 3 steals) carried them early, Devin Harris (16 points on 6-11 with 7 assists) played big in the middle and Nowitzki (30 points on 7-15 FG & 14-15 FT with 12 rebounds) closed it out. Mavs coach Avery Johnson made what has to be the adjustment of the series thus far late in the 4th quarter when he decided to double team Baron Davis (27 points on 10-16 with 9 assists) as soon as he crossed half court. This threw GS off just the slightest bit and aided Dallas’ season saving finish. My only question is, what took Avery so long?

As the series shifts back to the Bay Thursday I have questions about both clubs collective psyches. How do the Warriors respond after having the second round in their grasp only to let it slip away? Will GS be able to handle the pressure (which strangely enough, I think *is* on them) of closing out a superior opponent at home to avoid a Game 7 on the road? For the Mavs, can they handle adversity in an atmosphere they know will be insanely raucous? These are the reasons I’m putting out the first “Must See TV” mandate of the post season to my readers. You have your instructions, and I expect you to follow them.

Monday 4/30

Utah v Houston (Rockets up 3-2) – Houston made just enough plays down the stretch to eek out a four point victory in Game 5. The key for the Rockets was that Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming finally got some help from their friends. Shane Battier (15 points), Rafer Alston (14) and Juwan Howard (12) all stepped up and delivered. While it seemed that the Jazz role players forgot to pack their confidence for the road trip.

I expect more of the same as this series shifts back to Salt Lake Thursday. I mean, there’s not much to analyze here anymore. If you’ve been watching this one at all, you know Game 6 will be a hard fought affair decided by which team’s role players perform better. I look for Utah to ride their home crowd to victory and force a Game 7 on Saturday.

Denver v San Antonio (Spurs up 3-1) – Once again the Nuggets proved not to have what it takes down the stretch by getting outscored 29-16 in the 4th quarter. The key sequence was at the start of the 4th when SA coach Gregg Popovich went with a small lineup of Jacque Vaughn, Manu Ginobili, Brent Barry, Michael Finley and Fabricio Oberto. Denver flat out could not match up as the Spurs went from down six to up one in 1:38. From there it was close the rest of the way until Robert Horry put the final nail in the coffin with a three from the right corner with :30 seconds to play.

As many of you know, I love to rip Allen Iverson for being a low percentage gunner that takes bad shots and turns the ball over too much. Well he’s done nothing to change my mind in this series by hoisting 23 shots a game (to get his 23.3 ppg) while shooting 39.1% from the field, 25% from three with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.75 (5.3 apg & 3 topg). Even with that typical display from AI, the Nugs have had their chances. Carmelo Anthony has had his best post season ever, shooting 50% overall and from three while averaging 28.3 points & 9 rebounds. Nene Hilario has quietly done a superb job defending Tim Duncan one-on-one as well. What’s really killed Denver (besides AI) has been the disappearance of bench players J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza, leaving coach George Karl with just one reliable sub off the pine (Eduardo Najera). The Nugs outlook for next season is not going to be as bleak as I originally thought, but it’s also not going to be as great as some are predicting. They’ll be a solid playoff team, that can maybe win a round, but when push comes to shove I just don’t see the Melo-AI partnership working out.