Warriors at Jazz

Regular Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Utah – 45.53% (11th)
Golden State – 46.16% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Utah – +5.48 (1st)
Golden State – -5.01 (30th)

Shooting
Utah – 47.43% (2nd)
Golden State – 46.27% (12th)

3-Point Shooting
Utah – 33.5 (29th)
Golden State – 35.6% (13th)

Free Throw Shooting
Utah – 74.33% (20th)
Golden State – 71.70% (26th)

Turnovers
Utah – 15.57 (20th)
Golden State – 15.96 (23rd)

Fouls
Utah – 25.20 (30th)
Golden State – 23.57 (26th)

Pace Factor
Utah – 94.1 (15th)
Golden State – 101.6 (1st)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Deron Williams v Baron Davis – This could certainly be the main event in terms of matchups. D Wil has really been coming on as of late hitting jumpers, getting into the lane, running the pick & roll and keeping everyone involved. B Diddy was looking like the MVP of the playoffs before straining his right hamstring in Game 6 against Dallas. Both of these guys really make their clubs go; Williams with his decision making and Davis with his energy. The difference between the two really depends on if Baron is 100% healthy or not.

Shooting Guard
Derek Fisher & Gordan Giricek v Monta Ellis – Both Derek and Monta are really PG’s masquerading as SG’s. As such, both serve as their team’s backup PG. Fisher is the reliable veteran that never minds stepping in to take a charge and will make open shots in pressure situations. After breaking out this season, Ellis has been struggling lately on the big stage and seems to have lost his confidence.

Giricek’s 3-point shooing is very important for the Jazz as he is really their lone “true” spot up shooter. Not to be overlooked though is Gira’s defense. He doesn’t back down from a challenge and has surprisingly quick feet.

Small Forward
Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring v Jason Richardson & Mickael Pietrus – This is the other marquee matchup of the series. J-Rich is finally starting to get some of the attention he so rightly deserves, just in time to face the back from hibernation AK-47. Kirilenko being confident in his own game is going to be of major significance for Utah. They are going to need Andrei’s versatility on defense to shut down whoever has the hottest hand on the Warriors. Jason can’t fall in love with his jumper and has to remember to take it to the hole every once in a while.

Harpring faded toward the end of the Houston series, and if he doesn’t rediscover his energy, could find himself on the bench more than he’s used to. Pietrus is a freakish athlete with little or no feel for the game. Mickael can be an x-factor though because he has a tendency to put up big numbers when he breaks out.

Power Forward
Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap v Stephen Jackson & Matt Barnes – While Jackson proved his worth defending Dirk Nowitzki, Booz is an entirely different beast. In fact, I’m not sure there’s anyone on the GS roster that can contain Carlos. It’s true that Boozer will have a tough time chasing around whoever he checks on defense, but the punishment (i.e. fouls) Los is going to dish out down low will more than offset his lack of foot speed. S Jax is going to have to keep walking the razor’s edge in terms of intensity because his teammates feed off his “enthusiasm”.

The bench guys game’s are more similar then you might think. Both are undersized PF’s that hustle and bring instant energy when they step on the court. Barnes is more athletic and is really playing some of his best ball right now. Rookie Millsap is a better rebounder and has that certain knack for being in the right place at the right time.

Center
Memo Okur & Jarron Collins v Al Harrington & Andris Biedrins – Okur is another Jazzman that could have trouble defensively if the Warriors go extremely small (which they inevitably will). With the return of his 3-pont stroke, his ability to find open space and hit clutch shots, Memo is someone that should concern GS. “Big” Al has completely lost his mojo and literally looks befuddled as to where it went. Well, he better find it in a hurry because his team needs his bulk against Utah’s imposing front line.

Biedrins is a guy that figures to see major minutes if Harrington’s funk continues. Andris might play a lot anyway because with his combination of length and quickness he may be the only player that can give Boozer some problems. I don’t look for the plodding Collins to play much if at all.

Coach
Jerry Sloan v Don Nelson – You want to talk about chess matches? These two have a combined 2,267 regular season wins and 148 victories in the post season between them. Now that’s some serious experience. You have to figure that each guy is going to stick to his guns as far as style of play goes. So it boils down to which one adjusts better in game and game-to-game, and I’ll give the nod to Nellie on both of those counts.

Overall

This is a clash of styles between what are probably the two hottest squads in the playoffs right now. Everyone knows about the Warriors spectacular offense, but their defense really came together in the first round. Likewise, the Jazz D has always been stout, but they seemed to rediscover their offensive flow in the last two games against the Rockets. This series also boasts two of the best home court advantages in the entire NBA, which should make for some exciting games.

GS must continue to play with that cocky/fearless swagger, because that’s what got them here in the first place. They’ll also need to continue to hit their threes because any letup in that area and suddenly their offense isn’t as scary. Utah has to keep the tempo where they want it and get physical with the Warriors. In other words, play their normal game. I think the Jazz can do just that for three reasons. One, they won’t make the mistake of attempting to play fast with GS. Two, I expect the Jazz to completely dominate the glass, which will aid them in controlling the pace. And three, Utah matches up much better with the Warriors than the Mavericks did.

Prediction: It seems I’m going against the grain with my pick, but I have to roll with my boys. Jazz in 7.