Bulls at Pistons
> I’m going to break from my playoff norm and do my previews a little differently this round. It remains to be seen if this is actually an improvement or not, so feel free to comment if you’d like.
Regular Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 44.49% (6th)
Chicago – 43.53% (2nd)
Rebound Differential
Detroit – -.65 (18th)
Chicago – +2.78 (6th)
Shooting
Detroit – 45.37% (20th)
Chicago – 45.72% (16th)
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 34.4% (26th)
Chicago – 38.8% (2nd)
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.41% (7th)
Chicago – 73.36% (23rd)
Turnovers
Detroit – 12.20 (1st)
Chicago – 15.97 (24th)
Fouls
Detroit – 20.39 (5th)
Chicago – 23.26 (22nd)
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.7 (30th)
Chicago – 96.0 (7th)
Individual Matchups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Kirk Hinrich & Chris Duhon – In a series filled with marquee matchups, Billups-Hinrich might be the best. They both play solid defense, know how to run a team, have good outside shots and are fearless in big situations. Chaunc gets the edge in experience and Kirk in athleticism.
What’s weird is even the bench players are carbon copies of one another right down to the experience/athleticism comparison. If I had to choose I’m taking Duhon though.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Ben Gordon & Thabo Sefolosha – Rip and Ben both use constant movement without the ball to free themselves up for their deadly jumpers. While neither really drives all the way to the hole, both can get create their own shot off the dribble if need be. I’m taking Hamilton here for two reasons: size (Gordon is generously listed at 6-3) and defense. Rip is not a great one-on-one defender, but he is very adept at team defense.
If you’ve if even remotely read my stuff, you know who I like off the bench here. Sefolosha is a little raw, but he’s going to contribute more than the somewhat disinterested Flip.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v Luol Deng & Adrian Griffin – After watching Luol “open up a can” on the Miami Heat, I’m sure Tay will be ready for his assignment here. This is really the biggest individual matchup as I see things. Deng is usually longer than most guys he goes up against, but Prince can equal his length and is probably the quicker of the two. If Tay is able to contain Luol, a HUGE advantage goes to the Pistons. Also watch out for Prince’s underrated offense possible making Deng work harder than he wants to on defense.
Carlos has really been coming on lately. He does a lot of the little things well and has sneaky good athleticism. Couple those factors with Griffin being glued to the bench, and this is a solid mark in favor of Delfino.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Antonio McDyess v P.J. Brown & Andres Nocioni – Brown is out there solely for his defense, rebounding and interior presence. There is no way P.J. can contend with Sheed on the perimeter. Also, Brown’s lack of offense will allow Wallace to play a one man zone on defense. Big time advantage to Sheed here.
I had been thinking this bench matchup was going to be the real deal until I read that Nocioni’s right foot (plantar fasciitis) is acting up again. Said Andres, “I feel pain in the foot right now after the games, but not during the game.” Umm, ok. The Bulls look to Noc for energy, enthusiasm and toughness. Without him, they just are not the same squad. I’m sure Dyess will do what he does, but it’s really the Nocioni situation that needs to monitored closely.
Center
Chris Webber & Dale Davis/Nazr Mohammed v Ben Wallace & Tyrus Thomas – I’m already sick of the Wallace against his old club angle, and it hasn’t even started yet. This ranks as third biggest individual battle, but not because it’s so important. It’s more because C-Web and Big Ben affect the game in completely different ways. Chris with his passing/craftiness and Ben with his defense/hustle. While you can be pretty certain what Wallace is going to contribute, Webber is an utter wild card. This will be C-Web’s biggest stage since his Sacramento days and I really don’t know what to expect from him. He can do anything from find the fountain of youth and tilt the scale toward the Pistons or get completely embarrassed by his lack of movement. I’m calling this one a push until I see some action.
I included both Davis and Mohammed because I’m not really sure which will play, but I figure one of them will have to at some point. I’d play Nazr myself because Dale has been done for four years now. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas is the x-factor in the series. The Pistons have no one to match his athleticism, and if paired with Wallace up front could reek havoc on the aging Detroit front line.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Scott Skiles – While Flip has the big game experience advantage, I’m not really sure he’s a better “leader of men” than Scott. Skiles isn't afraid to yank any of his players in any situation and is a high quality in-game manager. Conversely Saunders has a more laissez faire demeanor with his guys and doesn’t always seem to command their respect because of it. This is a very even matchup in my mind but I’ll give the slight edge to Flip because he’s just a little bit better at adjusting between games.
Overall
This is without question the main event in the East. You can expect a knock-down-drag-out brawl from start to finish. While normally that is a recipe for some boring ball, I don’t think you’ll see that here. As similar as these squads are built and play this series intrigues me because it’s really the old guard versus the new. Plus this isn’t like the New York-Miami snooze fests of the 90’s because both of these clubs will get out run when given the opportunity.
If the Bulls were getting the Pistons after a tough series I think that would swing the pendulum in their favor (which is why the #2 seed was so important for Chicago) based on their youth. But being that both teams will be well rested for the opening tip, that has to favor Detroit. Experience is the other factor in play here. The Pistons have tons of it, the Bulls not so much. I expect that Chicago will try to keep the tempo high, but inevitably the game will slow down, and that’s where Detroit will flourish. I don't expect the Pistons tendency to coast will play a part here, and in the end I think they are going to be better at playing their style than the Bulls will be.
Prediction: Home court carries the day. Detroit in 7.
Regular Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 44.49% (6th)
Chicago – 43.53% (2nd)
Rebound Differential
Detroit – -.65 (18th)
Chicago – +2.78 (6th)
Shooting
Detroit – 45.37% (20th)
Chicago – 45.72% (16th)
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 34.4% (26th)
Chicago – 38.8% (2nd)
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.41% (7th)
Chicago – 73.36% (23rd)
Turnovers
Detroit – 12.20 (1st)
Chicago – 15.97 (24th)
Fouls
Detroit – 20.39 (5th)
Chicago – 23.26 (22nd)
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.7 (30th)
Chicago – 96.0 (7th)
Individual Matchups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Kirk Hinrich & Chris Duhon – In a series filled with marquee matchups, Billups-Hinrich might be the best. They both play solid defense, know how to run a team, have good outside shots and are fearless in big situations. Chaunc gets the edge in experience and Kirk in athleticism.
What’s weird is even the bench players are carbon copies of one another right down to the experience/athleticism comparison. If I had to choose I’m taking Duhon though.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Ben Gordon & Thabo Sefolosha – Rip and Ben both use constant movement without the ball to free themselves up for their deadly jumpers. While neither really drives all the way to the hole, both can get create their own shot off the dribble if need be. I’m taking Hamilton here for two reasons: size (Gordon is generously listed at 6-3) and defense. Rip is not a great one-on-one defender, but he is very adept at team defense.
If you’ve if even remotely read my stuff, you know who I like off the bench here. Sefolosha is a little raw, but he’s going to contribute more than the somewhat disinterested Flip.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v Luol Deng & Adrian Griffin – After watching Luol “open up a can” on the Miami Heat, I’m sure Tay will be ready for his assignment here. This is really the biggest individual matchup as I see things. Deng is usually longer than most guys he goes up against, but Prince can equal his length and is probably the quicker of the two. If Tay is able to contain Luol, a HUGE advantage goes to the Pistons. Also watch out for Prince’s underrated offense possible making Deng work harder than he wants to on defense.
Carlos has really been coming on lately. He does a lot of the little things well and has sneaky good athleticism. Couple those factors with Griffin being glued to the bench, and this is a solid mark in favor of Delfino.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Antonio McDyess v P.J. Brown & Andres Nocioni – Brown is out there solely for his defense, rebounding and interior presence. There is no way P.J. can contend with Sheed on the perimeter. Also, Brown’s lack of offense will allow Wallace to play a one man zone on defense. Big time advantage to Sheed here.
I had been thinking this bench matchup was going to be the real deal until I read that Nocioni’s right foot (plantar fasciitis) is acting up again. Said Andres, “I feel pain in the foot right now after the games, but not during the game.” Umm, ok. The Bulls look to Noc for energy, enthusiasm and toughness. Without him, they just are not the same squad. I’m sure Dyess will do what he does, but it’s really the Nocioni situation that needs to monitored closely.
Center
Chris Webber & Dale Davis/Nazr Mohammed v Ben Wallace & Tyrus Thomas – I’m already sick of the Wallace against his old club angle, and it hasn’t even started yet. This ranks as third biggest individual battle, but not because it’s so important. It’s more because C-Web and Big Ben affect the game in completely different ways. Chris with his passing/craftiness and Ben with his defense/hustle. While you can be pretty certain what Wallace is going to contribute, Webber is an utter wild card. This will be C-Web’s biggest stage since his Sacramento days and I really don’t know what to expect from him. He can do anything from find the fountain of youth and tilt the scale toward the Pistons or get completely embarrassed by his lack of movement. I’m calling this one a push until I see some action.
I included both Davis and Mohammed because I’m not really sure which will play, but I figure one of them will have to at some point. I’d play Nazr myself because Dale has been done for four years now. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas is the x-factor in the series. The Pistons have no one to match his athleticism, and if paired with Wallace up front could reek havoc on the aging Detroit front line.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Scott Skiles – While Flip has the big game experience advantage, I’m not really sure he’s a better “leader of men” than Scott. Skiles isn't afraid to yank any of his players in any situation and is a high quality in-game manager. Conversely Saunders has a more laissez faire demeanor with his guys and doesn’t always seem to command their respect because of it. This is a very even matchup in my mind but I’ll give the slight edge to Flip because he’s just a little bit better at adjusting between games.
Overall
This is without question the main event in the East. You can expect a knock-down-drag-out brawl from start to finish. While normally that is a recipe for some boring ball, I don’t think you’ll see that here. As similar as these squads are built and play this series intrigues me because it’s really the old guard versus the new. Plus this isn’t like the New York-Miami snooze fests of the 90’s because both of these clubs will get out run when given the opportunity.
If the Bulls were getting the Pistons after a tough series I think that would swing the pendulum in their favor (which is why the #2 seed was so important for Chicago) based on their youth. But being that both teams will be well rested for the opening tip, that has to favor Detroit. Experience is the other factor in play here. The Pistons have tons of it, the Bulls not so much. I expect that Chicago will try to keep the tempo high, but inevitably the game will slow down, and that’s where Detroit will flourish. I don't expect the Pistons tendency to coast will play a part here, and in the end I think they are going to be better at playing their style than the Bulls will be.
Prediction: Home court carries the day. Detroit in 7.
posted by D$ at 8:33 PM
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