Spurs at Suns
Regular Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Phoenix – 45.69% (14th)
San Antonio – 44.26% (4th)
Rebound Differential
Phoenix – -2.34 (24th)
San Antonio – +1.58 (10th)
Shooting
Phoenix – 49.42% (1st)
San Antonio – 47.39% (3rd)
3-Point Shooting
Phoenix – 39.9% (1st)
San Antonio – 38.1% (4th)
Free Throw Shooting
Phoenix – 80.79% (1st)
San Antonio – 75.05% (17th)
Turnovers
Phoenix – 14.50 (9th)
San Antonio – 13.85 (4th)
Fouls
Phoenix – 20.23 (3rd)
San Antonio – 19.36 (1st)
Pace Factor
Phoenix – 98.1 (3rd)
San Antonio – 92.0 (27th)
Individual Matchups
(Note: since Phoenix only plays eight guys I jimmied with their lineup some by giving preference to the guys that play the most.)
Point Guard
Steve Nash v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – I’m well aware that Nash is everyone’s darling, and rightly so. With apologies to MMM, the guy flat out makes everyone he plays with better. That said Steve is up against it here. Parker just got done proving he could consistently stay in front of Allen Iverson on defense, so checking Nash really poses no problems for TP. On offense Tony has historically blown by Steve at will, and I expect that pattern to continue here.
Vaughn was brought in just for this reason. Look for Jacque to get minutes as a defensive specialist against both Nash and Barbosa.
Shooting Guard
Leandro Barbosa v Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili – If Finley’s shot isn’t falling his lack of foot speed renders him pretty much useless in this series. Since winning the 6th Man of the Year award Leandro has been playing with even more confidence, which is a scary thought. I actually think a solid argument can be made that Barbosa is the most important Sun. His speed is unmatched, even by Parker, and when LB’s is hitting his 3-pointers he is practically unguardable.
Ginobili thrives playing against Phoenix and their wide open helter-skelter style. Manu should have no problems getting to basket on offense, but who does he guard on defense?
Small Forward
Raja Bell & James Jones v Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry – Raja are Bruce their team’s defensive specialists and designated spot up 3-point shooters. In what will be a very interesting matchup to watch, I’m looking for Bell to guard Ginobili as soon as Manu gets off the bench. I expect Bowen to check pretty much everyone on the Suns except Amare, which will certainly test BB’s athleticism and endurance.
JJ starts but has only averaged 18.8 minutes a night in the post season thus far. He’s actually a decent defender, but is really only out there for his 3-point shooting. I imagine Barry will be glued to the pine for the most part because he’s just too slow.
Power Forward
Shawn Marion & Boris Diaw v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – Duncan is going to have to be at his defensive best against either Marion or Stoudemire. I suspect Tim won’t really guard Amare full time until the last six minutes of each 4th quarter. This leaves him chasing Shawn around the rest of the time. As impossible as it may seem at first, Duncan should be ok against the Matrix because Phoenix doesn’t run many plays for Marion. The tough part for TD will be keeping Shawn off the offensive glass. The media loves to tout Trix as a great defender, but I get the feeling Timmy can score on him any time he wants.
Diaw and Horry both do so many little things for their clubs that their contributions can’t be measured in stats alone. The difference in the two is that this you know what you’ll get from “Big Shot Bob” because this is *his* time of year. With Boris it’s a toss up. He can look great one game and lost the next. Each of these guys is very versatile and can defend multiple positions, but the edge has to go to Horry here.
Center
Amare Stoudemire & Kurt Thomas v Francisco Elson & Fabricio Oberto – At first glance you look at Amare-Cisco and mismatch jumps into your mind. “Not so fast my friend.” Elson has the bulk AND the quickness (not to mention six fouls) to hang with Stoudemire. I’m not saying he can stop him, but the Dutchman will do a better job than most think. Amare really needs to show patience as Cisco and Fab will try and soften him up/frustrate him for when Duncan takes over in the 4th.
Thomas and Oberto are both smart players, adequate rebounders and have nice mid-range jump shots. The difference being that Kurt is the better defender and Fab the better passer. Honestly though, I don’t think we’ll see much of either because the game will just be too fast for them.
Coach
Mike D’Antoni v Gregg Popovich – If there is a gigantic mismatch in the series, this is it. Pop is one of the best motivators in the business, has tons of post season/big game experience, is great at designing out of bounds plays and has the rare combo of being able to adjust in game and game-to-game equally as well. D’Antoni lives by the motto “This is who we are.” That doesn’t really lend itself to strategic modification, does it? Furthermore, I’ve seen Mike D get that deer-in-headlights look more than once in pressure situations.
Overall
I have no issues with typing that this is most likely the de facto NBA Championship. I know the winner has two more rounds left after this, but make no mistake, these *are* the best two squads left running in the post season. An intriguing subplot that needs to be mentioned here is that this could be the last waltz for the Suns as we know them. Whether it is chemistry, salary cap or luxury tax issues, there are many rumblings out of Phoenix that this group is being broken up win or lose. If Nash and company needed any extra motivation to get the job done, there it is.
Much like the Suns defense is underrated, so is the Spurs offense. Therefore this series is going to come down to who can impose their will on the other more consistently. Phoenix wants to run and gun and San Antonio likes to grind it out. While the Spurs will occasionally get beat up and down the floor, I feel they will be able to control the tempo better over the course of the series by out-executing the Suns in the half court.
Prediction: SA’s depth and defense make the difference. Spurs in 6.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Phoenix – 45.69% (14th)
San Antonio – 44.26% (4th)
Rebound Differential
Phoenix – -2.34 (24th)
San Antonio – +1.58 (10th)
Shooting
Phoenix – 49.42% (1st)
San Antonio – 47.39% (3rd)
3-Point Shooting
Phoenix – 39.9% (1st)
San Antonio – 38.1% (4th)
Free Throw Shooting
Phoenix – 80.79% (1st)
San Antonio – 75.05% (17th)
Turnovers
Phoenix – 14.50 (9th)
San Antonio – 13.85 (4th)
Fouls
Phoenix – 20.23 (3rd)
San Antonio – 19.36 (1st)
Pace Factor
Phoenix – 98.1 (3rd)
San Antonio – 92.0 (27th)
Individual Matchups
(Note: since Phoenix only plays eight guys I jimmied with their lineup some by giving preference to the guys that play the most.)
Point Guard
Steve Nash v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – I’m well aware that Nash is everyone’s darling, and rightly so. With apologies to MMM, the guy flat out makes everyone he plays with better. That said Steve is up against it here. Parker just got done proving he could consistently stay in front of Allen Iverson on defense, so checking Nash really poses no problems for TP. On offense Tony has historically blown by Steve at will, and I expect that pattern to continue here.
Vaughn was brought in just for this reason. Look for Jacque to get minutes as a defensive specialist against both Nash and Barbosa.
Shooting Guard
Leandro Barbosa v Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili – If Finley’s shot isn’t falling his lack of foot speed renders him pretty much useless in this series. Since winning the 6th Man of the Year award Leandro has been playing with even more confidence, which is a scary thought. I actually think a solid argument can be made that Barbosa is the most important Sun. His speed is unmatched, even by Parker, and when LB’s is hitting his 3-pointers he is practically unguardable.
Ginobili thrives playing against Phoenix and their wide open helter-skelter style. Manu should have no problems getting to basket on offense, but who does he guard on defense?
Small Forward
Raja Bell & James Jones v Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry – Raja are Bruce their team’s defensive specialists and designated spot up 3-point shooters. In what will be a very interesting matchup to watch, I’m looking for Bell to guard Ginobili as soon as Manu gets off the bench. I expect Bowen to check pretty much everyone on the Suns except Amare, which will certainly test BB’s athleticism and endurance.
JJ starts but has only averaged 18.8 minutes a night in the post season thus far. He’s actually a decent defender, but is really only out there for his 3-point shooting. I imagine Barry will be glued to the pine for the most part because he’s just too slow.
Power Forward
Shawn Marion & Boris Diaw v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – Duncan is going to have to be at his defensive best against either Marion or Stoudemire. I suspect Tim won’t really guard Amare full time until the last six minutes of each 4th quarter. This leaves him chasing Shawn around the rest of the time. As impossible as it may seem at first, Duncan should be ok against the Matrix because Phoenix doesn’t run many plays for Marion. The tough part for TD will be keeping Shawn off the offensive glass. The media loves to tout Trix as a great defender, but I get the feeling Timmy can score on him any time he wants.
Diaw and Horry both do so many little things for their clubs that their contributions can’t be measured in stats alone. The difference in the two is that this you know what you’ll get from “Big Shot Bob” because this is *his* time of year. With Boris it’s a toss up. He can look great one game and lost the next. Each of these guys is very versatile and can defend multiple positions, but the edge has to go to Horry here.
Center
Amare Stoudemire & Kurt Thomas v Francisco Elson & Fabricio Oberto – At first glance you look at Amare-Cisco and mismatch jumps into your mind. “Not so fast my friend.” Elson has the bulk AND the quickness (not to mention six fouls) to hang with Stoudemire. I’m not saying he can stop him, but the Dutchman will do a better job than most think. Amare really needs to show patience as Cisco and Fab will try and soften him up/frustrate him for when Duncan takes over in the 4th.
Thomas and Oberto are both smart players, adequate rebounders and have nice mid-range jump shots. The difference being that Kurt is the better defender and Fab the better passer. Honestly though, I don’t think we’ll see much of either because the game will just be too fast for them.
Coach
Mike D’Antoni v Gregg Popovich – If there is a gigantic mismatch in the series, this is it. Pop is one of the best motivators in the business, has tons of post season/big game experience, is great at designing out of bounds plays and has the rare combo of being able to adjust in game and game-to-game equally as well. D’Antoni lives by the motto “This is who we are.” That doesn’t really lend itself to strategic modification, does it? Furthermore, I’ve seen Mike D get that deer-in-headlights look more than once in pressure situations.
Overall
I have no issues with typing that this is most likely the de facto NBA Championship. I know the winner has two more rounds left after this, but make no mistake, these *are* the best two squads left running in the post season. An intriguing subplot that needs to be mentioned here is that this could be the last waltz for the Suns as we know them. Whether it is chemistry, salary cap or luxury tax issues, there are many rumblings out of Phoenix that this group is being broken up win or lose. If Nash and company needed any extra motivation to get the job done, there it is.
Much like the Suns defense is underrated, so is the Spurs offense. Therefore this series is going to come down to who can impose their will on the other more consistently. Phoenix wants to run and gun and San Antonio likes to grind it out. While the Spurs will occasionally get beat up and down the floor, I feel they will be able to control the tempo better over the course of the series by out-executing the Suns in the half court.
Prediction: SA’s depth and defense make the difference. Spurs in 6.
posted by D$ at 6:42 PM
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