Cavs at Pistons
Post Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.56%
Cleveland – 42.11%
Rebound Differential
Detroit – +0.90
Cleveland – +7.40
Shooting
Detroit – 43.65%
Cleveland – 43.05%
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 37.02%
Cleveland – 32.32%
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.07%
Cleveland – 75.27%
Turnovers
Detroit – 11.60
Cleveland – 12.70
Fouls
Detroit – 24.60
Cleveland – 20.50
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.3
Cleveland – 90.2
Individual Matchups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Larry Hughes & Eric Snow – There’s no denying that Billups is the engine that makes his team go. The Pistons really struggled against Chicago any time Chaunc was out of the game. That’s why Hughes is so important in this series. Larry has all the tools (length, quickness, athletic ability) to really bother “Mr. Big Shot”. Hughes will need to step up and contribute on offense occasionally, but shutting down Billups should be Larry’s number one priority.
Hunter and Snow are both great on the ball defenders that can’t shoot worth a lick. However, E Snow does provide his club with more leadership and is a better play maker as well.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Sasha Pavlovic & Daniel Gibson – While “Rip” is obviously the better all around player, I can’t think of anybody more up for the challenge of chasing him around all night than Sasha. Pavlovic is a feisty defender with decent athleticism that won’t back down from anybody. Since Detroit goes as their guards go, Sasha disrupting Hamilton’s flow would be a serious boon for the Cavaliers.
Murray has been pretty much a non-factor this post season because he’s a scorer whose jumper has abandoned him. On the other hand Gibson seems to produce any time he gets minutes. Even though Daniel is a rookie, his ability to penetrate and knock down open shots makes him a candidate for x-factor…if he’s allowed to play of course.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v LeBron James & Ira Newble – Even though no one person can stop Bron, this battle is really the key for the Pistons. If Prince can use his length and savvy to frustrate James, Cleveland is in big trouble. The more likely scenario is that Detroit employs a team defensive concept similar to the old “Jordan Rules”. No matter how much he’s getting beat up, LeBron *must* continually take the ball to the hoop and not settle for long jumpers. There are two reasons for this; #1 James is completely unstoppable when he decides to drive. #2 he can put fouls on Tay and others over the course of a game. It’s not going to be easy for Bron, but if he wants to get over the hump, this is the road he must travel.
Delfino’s playing time has been gradually disappearing in the playoffs, but he is a guy that could defend James for a few possessions here and there when needed. I don’t expect Newble to see the light of day.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Drew Gooden & Donyell Marshall – I’m going out on a limb here and predicting that Wallace and Gooden get into it with each other at least once this series. The two of them are far too combustible for a few scrums not to break out. Sheed is a very important barometer for how the Pistons perform, and Drew has the quickness and strength to stay with Wallace on the perimeter and in the paint. On the flip side Sheed can’t get lazy on defense because Gooden has a nice mid-range jumper and is a tireless worker on the offensive glass.
Maxiell suddenly became a rotation player in the Bulls series, and it seemed long overdue. Jason gives Detroit a tough minded athlete that doesn’t mind mixing it up down low. Marshall has played one good game this entire post season, so if his 3-point shot isn’t falling, don’t expect to see much of him.
Center
Chris Webber & Antonio McDyess v Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao – If there’s one area where the Cavs have a clear cut advantage, it’s in the pivot. That’s why I think Ilgauskas is the most important player for Cleveland. Granted, his coach has to run plays for him, and his teammates also have to give him the ball, but if Big Z has his offensive game working down low the Pistons don’t have an answer for him. Webber has been morphing into the invisible man as the playoffs have worn on, and that trend looks to continue here. Chris straight lacks the muscle and height to deal with Ilgauskas, but C-Web also is not quick enough to stay with Gooden or Varejao.
It’s a rare thing when both squads’ sixth man is a big, but that is certainly the case here. Dyess will be counted on to log heavy minutes against the Drew, Big Z and “Sideshow Bob” triumvirate. Antonio has been struggling from the field lately, so any turnaround there is a bonus for Detroit. Anderson just needs to continue to do what he does, which is rebound, defend, agitate and bring energy.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Mike Brown – Both of these guys are probably better known for their flaws than strengths. Saunders seems to tighten up in big moments and doesn’t always look to have control of his club. Brown’s offense is routinely bashed and his play designs coming out of dead ball situations routinely disappoint. I’m giving the edge to Flip here because he’s more creative with his adjustments both in game and game-to-game.
Overall
This series is not going to win over the hearts and minds of any potential NBA fans out there. In fact, the haters in the media will have a field day ripping this series to shreds and saying how boring the play in the NBA is. Whatever, we’ll call those two sentences a bonus prediction. You can expect to see a tough, 90’s style, defensive, grind it out series here. There will be plenty of hard fouls given both ways and the no lay-up rule will be in full effect.
Believe it or not, I actually think that Cleveland plays the better defense of the two teams. The Cavs game plan should be to stay within striking distance so LeBron has a chance to win it in the end. In order to keep it close though, Cleveland is going to need someone else to step up and score along side James every game. Whether it is Hughes, Gooden, Ilgauskas or another, it doesn’t matter, but it has to be somebody. As usual, the Pistons need to guard against complacency and withstand their own inevitable scoring droughts.
Prediction: Detroit’s superior experience and balance carry the day. Pistons in 6.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.56%
Cleveland – 42.11%
Rebound Differential
Detroit – +0.90
Cleveland – +7.40
Shooting
Detroit – 43.65%
Cleveland – 43.05%
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 37.02%
Cleveland – 32.32%
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 77.07%
Cleveland – 75.27%
Turnovers
Detroit – 11.60
Cleveland – 12.70
Fouls
Detroit – 24.60
Cleveland – 20.50
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.3
Cleveland – 90.2
Individual Matchups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Lindsey Hunter v Larry Hughes & Eric Snow – There’s no denying that Billups is the engine that makes his team go. The Pistons really struggled against Chicago any time Chaunc was out of the game. That’s why Hughes is so important in this series. Larry has all the tools (length, quickness, athletic ability) to really bother “Mr. Big Shot”. Hughes will need to step up and contribute on offense occasionally, but shutting down Billups should be Larry’s number one priority.
Hunter and Snow are both great on the ball defenders that can’t shoot worth a lick. However, E Snow does provide his club with more leadership and is a better play maker as well.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Flip Murray v Sasha Pavlovic & Daniel Gibson – While “Rip” is obviously the better all around player, I can’t think of anybody more up for the challenge of chasing him around all night than Sasha. Pavlovic is a feisty defender with decent athleticism that won’t back down from anybody. Since Detroit goes as their guards go, Sasha disrupting Hamilton’s flow would be a serious boon for the Cavaliers.
Murray has been pretty much a non-factor this post season because he’s a scorer whose jumper has abandoned him. On the other hand Gibson seems to produce any time he gets minutes. Even though Daniel is a rookie, his ability to penetrate and knock down open shots makes him a candidate for x-factor…if he’s allowed to play of course.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Carlos Delfino v LeBron James & Ira Newble – Even though no one person can stop Bron, this battle is really the key for the Pistons. If Prince can use his length and savvy to frustrate James, Cleveland is in big trouble. The more likely scenario is that Detroit employs a team defensive concept similar to the old “Jordan Rules”. No matter how much he’s getting beat up, LeBron *must* continually take the ball to the hoop and not settle for long jumpers. There are two reasons for this; #1 James is completely unstoppable when he decides to drive. #2 he can put fouls on Tay and others over the course of a game. It’s not going to be easy for Bron, but if he wants to get over the hump, this is the road he must travel.
Delfino’s playing time has been gradually disappearing in the playoffs, but he is a guy that could defend James for a few possessions here and there when needed. I don’t expect Newble to see the light of day.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Drew Gooden & Donyell Marshall – I’m going out on a limb here and predicting that Wallace and Gooden get into it with each other at least once this series. The two of them are far too combustible for a few scrums not to break out. Sheed is a very important barometer for how the Pistons perform, and Drew has the quickness and strength to stay with Wallace on the perimeter and in the paint. On the flip side Sheed can’t get lazy on defense because Gooden has a nice mid-range jumper and is a tireless worker on the offensive glass.
Maxiell suddenly became a rotation player in the Bulls series, and it seemed long overdue. Jason gives Detroit a tough minded athlete that doesn’t mind mixing it up down low. Marshall has played one good game this entire post season, so if his 3-point shot isn’t falling, don’t expect to see much of him.
Center
Chris Webber & Antonio McDyess v Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao – If there’s one area where the Cavs have a clear cut advantage, it’s in the pivot. That’s why I think Ilgauskas is the most important player for Cleveland. Granted, his coach has to run plays for him, and his teammates also have to give him the ball, but if Big Z has his offensive game working down low the Pistons don’t have an answer for him. Webber has been morphing into the invisible man as the playoffs have worn on, and that trend looks to continue here. Chris straight lacks the muscle and height to deal with Ilgauskas, but C-Web also is not quick enough to stay with Gooden or Varejao.
It’s a rare thing when both squads’ sixth man is a big, but that is certainly the case here. Dyess will be counted on to log heavy minutes against the Drew, Big Z and “Sideshow Bob” triumvirate. Antonio has been struggling from the field lately, so any turnaround there is a bonus for Detroit. Anderson just needs to continue to do what he does, which is rebound, defend, agitate and bring energy.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Mike Brown – Both of these guys are probably better known for their flaws than strengths. Saunders seems to tighten up in big moments and doesn’t always look to have control of his club. Brown’s offense is routinely bashed and his play designs coming out of dead ball situations routinely disappoint. I’m giving the edge to Flip here because he’s more creative with his adjustments both in game and game-to-game.
Overall
This series is not going to win over the hearts and minds of any potential NBA fans out there. In fact, the haters in the media will have a field day ripping this series to shreds and saying how boring the play in the NBA is. Whatever, we’ll call those two sentences a bonus prediction. You can expect to see a tough, 90’s style, defensive, grind it out series here. There will be plenty of hard fouls given both ways and the no lay-up rule will be in full effect.
Believe it or not, I actually think that Cleveland plays the better defense of the two teams. The Cavs game plan should be to stay within striking distance so LeBron has a chance to win it in the end. In order to keep it close though, Cleveland is going to need someone else to step up and score along side James every game. Whether it is Hughes, Gooden, Ilgauskas or another, it doesn’t matter, but it has to be somebody. As usual, the Pistons need to guard against complacency and withstand their own inevitable scoring droughts.
Prediction: Detroit’s superior experience and balance carry the day. Pistons in 6.
posted by D$ at 10:04 AM
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