Jazz at Spurs

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
San Antonio – 45.08%
Utah – 42.12%

Rebound Differential
San Antonio – -0.55
Utah – +8.00

Shooting
San Antonio – 45.09%
Utah – 46.23%

3-Point Shooting
San Antonio – 37.44%
Utah – 33.94%

Free Throw Shooting
San Antonio – 74.79%
Utah – 76.25%

Turnovers
San Antonio – 12.73
Utah – 15.92

Fouls
San Antonio – 20.18
Utah – 24.42

Pace Factor
San Antonio – 93.5
Utah – 94.3

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn v Deron Williams & Dee Brown – After already facing Allen Iverson and Steve Nash life doesn’t get any easier for Parker against Williams. Tony will obviously have a quickness advantage but Deron has the upper hand strength wise. Both guys are great at getting into the lane and creating opportunities for their teammates. Likewise, TP and D Wil are very streaky jump shooters who become practically unguardable when their outside shot is falling. Whichever player gets the better of this matchup will probably dictate which team wins on a nightly basis.

I don’t expect to see much of Vaughn or Brown, other than as a change of pace player for a few minutes here and there.

Shooting Guard
Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili v Derek Fisher & Gordan Giricek – Fin and Fish are both veteran guys that play smart on offense and defense alike. Each player’s 3-point shooting and leadership is much needed by their respective clubs. Another thing about these two is that they both have a knack for hitting big shots in pressure situations. It’s hard to say who really has the advantage here.

Ginobili finally broke out late in the Phoenix series and started playing like we’ve become accustomed to. The Jazz have plenty of guys that can defend Manu, but containing his infectious energy off the bench is a tough job for anybody. Gira must keep his head in the game at all times, play with intensity on the defensive end and make open 3-pointers.

Small Forward
Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Who Bowen and Kirilenko end up guarding is the big question. I think we’ll see BB on Williams a lot and AK-47 on Parker and Ginobili depending on who is hotter. The Spurs need Bruce to make that corner three and Andrei *must* perform with the same reckless abandon he’s shown recently. A big offensive contribution from either these two could swing a game’s outcome.

It’s up to Matt to consistently match Manu’s enthusiasm as sixth man. Harpring struggled at times against Golden State, but the tempo and physical nature of this series should be much more to his liking. Barry has yet to be much of a contributor in the playoffs, and I doubt that changes now.

Power Forward
Tim Duncan & Robert Horry v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – Ladies and gentlemen…I give you the main event. Duncan and Boozer are both beasts down low who possess nice mid-range jumpers as well. Each is a great rebounder and adept at using the glass, but Carlos has a better left hand, while Tim is the superior defender. Each squad is well equipped to throw multiple bodies at Dunc and Booz in an attempt to wear them down. So it’s going to be during crunch time, when all the chips are down, that we’ll get to see who’s in better condition to carry their team.

The bench matchup is a case of old versus new. Both Horry and Millsap hustle and do all the little things that coaches love. Believe it or not, Paul is really a younger more athletic version of Robert at this point in their career’s. The only thing I see that separates these two is “Cheap Shot Rob’s” experience and 3-point shooting.

Center
Fabricio Oberto & Francisco Elson v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – Even though Oberto seems to have the won the starting job from Elson during the post season, I think Francisco matches up better with Okur and/or Boozer. Either way Fab and Cisco are pretty much interchangeable, with Elson being the more mobile of the two. Memo has been quietly having a sensational year. He’s also developed into one of the NBA’s premier clutch shot makers. After the job he did on Yao Ming, I’m sure Okur will be called upon to be Duncan's primary defender. Memo struggled offensively against Houston, so it will be interesting to see what kind of energy he has left for scoring after banging with Timmy all game long.

Collins will certainly get an opportunity to use all six of his fouls against Duncan.

Coach
Gregg Popovich v Jerry Sloan – These two should set the combined world record for biting sarcastic remarks at press conferences over the course of a series. Including their mutual disdain for reporters, these guys are pretty much carbon copies of one another. That said, I’m giving a slight edge here to Pop based on his superior ability to make adjustments during games.

Overall

These clubs are remarkably similar in just about every way. They are both well coached, play smart and work hard. While they both generally play slow, preferring to execute in the half court on offense, each will also get out and run when the opportunity presents itself. They both also take care of the boards and play tough, solid, physical defense. Each squad features a fantastic young PG, a top flight defensive ace and a reliable low post scorer. The differences as I see them are that SA has better 3-point shooters and more experience as a unit on the big stage.

Utah has a great chance to steal Game 1 on the road with the Spurs coming off an emotionally draining series and being on one day of rest. If the Jazz can do that this tussle has a chance to surpass expectations and surprise quite a few people. The reason I say that is because I get the feeling that the public’s perception is that this will be a boring series. However, I for one am expecting quality games to watch from start to finish regardless of what Utah does in Game 1.

Prediction: SA just does what Utah does a little bit better. Spurs in 5.