Fixture #3

RECAP 

Well we did it.  It wasn’t pretty but advancing out of the Group of Death doesn’t have to be.  Especially when you consider that no side had won their next match after playing in Manaus (except Portugal luckily for us).  Then take into account that we were playing one of the best teams in the world on short rest in the pouring rain on a waterlogged pitch.  All things considered I’d say a 0-1 loss to Germany was a great result.  Plus I don’t think there’s much of argument that we weren’t the second best side in Group G after three matches.  

After the initial shock of the draw on 12/6/13 wore off I always thought we’d advance in second place by beating Ghana and Portugal and then losing to Germany.  And while Die Mannschaft let us down by drawing with Ghana, Germany beating Portugal 4-0 is what allowed us to go through in the end.  We are headed to the knockout round in consecutive World Cup’s (WC) for the first time ever and have a decent chance to make only our second ever appearance in the Quarterfinals (2002). 

The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) was largely dominated in the match and the numbers back it up.  The German’s had more possession (63%-37%), shots (13-4) and shots on goal (9-1).  But thanks largely to Tim Howard’s brilliance we managed to not look nearly as bad as those statistics would suggest.  As we were hanging on for our lives early, before we gained a foothold in the match, Ghana’s John Boye kicked in an own goal in the 31^st minute of the other match putting us in a pretty good position to advance.  We somehow went into halftime with a nil-nil score line before things got really interesting after the break. 

In the 55^th minute Timmy saved a ripping header from Per Mertesacker off a short corner but the rebound fell right to an unmarked Thomas Müller.  Müller managed to curl the ball right between both Matt Besler and Omar Gonzalez and just past the diving Howard’s fingertips.  At that point things were still ok but then in the 57^th minute of the other match our old friend Asamoah Gyan scored leveling things.  For the next 23 minutes the USMNT was one Black Stars goal away from being sent home.  Thankfully Ghanaian keeper Fatawu Dauda made an utterly boneheaded play in the 80^th minute.  Instead of catching a ball in his six yard box he inexplicably punched it down and it landed right at the feet of one Cristiano Ronaldo.  He calmly put it in the back of the net making every fan of the USMNT breathe a little easier. 

With a spot in the Round of 16 all but assured the USMNT did what they normally do, which is not give up.  Watch this clip and imagine if Alejandro Bedoya had just aimed for the upper left 90.  We would have escaped with a 1-1 draw and extended our unbeaten streak to seven matches.  We weren’t done there though as Michael Bradley smartly took the ensuing corner quickly and after a touch from DaMarcus Beasley Michael whipped a cross in.  DeAndre Yedlin was the first to get a head on it but then it fell right to Clint Dempsey at the far post but his header went over the crossbar.  This all happened in the 93^rd and 94^th minutes proving Everton Manager Roberto Martínez’s claim that the USMNT is the fittest side he’s seen at the WC. 

Gonzalez in the 37^th and Kyle Beckerman in the 62^nd minute joined Jermaine Jones as USMNT players on a yellow card.  If any of them were to get another in the Round of 16 they would miss a potential Quarterfinal match. 

HISTORY 

We’ve actually played the Red Devils twice in recent times.  The first was 0-1 loss in Brussels on 9/6/11 where Nicolas Lombaerts scored in the 55^th minute.  I didn‘t see this match but it was our first on foreign soil under then new Manager Jürgen Klinsmann.  Maurice Edu was deemed offside when he netted the equalizer in the 86^th minute.  From everything I read and remember about this match we looked pretty good and held our own.  That said only five guys that played in that match made the USMNT’s final 23-man WC roster. 

The match I do remember happened on 5/29/13 in Cleveland where the supporter turnout was the worst for a home fixture that I have seen in recent times.  The Belgians dominated play in the first half and when Kevin Mirallas put them up in the 6^th minute it looked like things might get ugly.  Geoff Cameron managed to equalize in the 22^nd minute but in the second half things fell apart.  Christian Benteke tallied in the 56^th and 71^st minutes and we really had no answer for him.  Marouane Fellaini rounded out the scoring for Belgium in 64^th minute and Dempsey brought one back on a penalty kick in the 80^th minute for the final 2-4 score line.  Combining both sides and including substitutes that played a whopping 23 total players saw the pitch that day in Cleveland that ended up in Brazil. 

If Belgian manager Marc Wilmots hadn’t cancelled our scheduled scrimmage on 6/12 in São Paulo we’d be even more familiar with them.  As is Nate Sliver’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) gives the USMNT a 41.1% chance of advancing to the Quarterfinals. As of Monday morning the Red Devils rank 9^th and The Yanks 18^th in SPI.  Another thing to keep in mind is that Belgian fans travel quite well so the American Outlaws will have some competition in the stands.  

LINEUP 

Klinsmann made two changes against Germany bringing in Gonzalez for Geoff Cameron and Brad Davis for Bedoya.  Jürgen said both changes were due the players needing rest.  I can buy that for Bedoya but not so much for Cameron.  My fear of Gonzalez is well documented here but after a few early gaffes he actually played quite well against Germany.  Basically whoever plays out of Omar or Geoff will make me nervous so I’m placing my trust in Klinsy to make the right call.  Davis was pretty non-existent in his 59 minutes and I wouldn’t play him again, even if Alejandro can’t go 90 anymore. 

Jürgen has hinted at more changes coming due to guys needing rest and even broached the subject of Jozy Altidore returning to the pitch.  I’d love to see Jozy back but just because he’s been able to jog for the past six days doesn’t mean he’s ready to go 90 or 120.  I think the best case scenario for Jozy is that he can go 20 minutes as a substitute.  Klinsmann needs to be careful if he uses Altidore though since the possibility of 30 minutes of extra time is always there if the match is tied after 90. 

I can’t see making a change on the back line outside of the Omar-Geoff choice.  I also can’t see how sitting Beckerman, Jones or Bradley would do us any good against a side as talented as Belgium.  Dempsey obviously has to start too and I’d lean toward going back to the Bedoya/Graham Zusi duo as well.  If there is going to be change in the midfield I would hope that Mix Diskerud is the guy brought in.  We could really use his creativity with the ball on offense.  Plus he can’t play any worse than Davis did.  Another midfield option could be to just start the speedy Yedlin since he’s been a difference maker every time he’s seen the pitch in this WC.  It also wouldn’t upset me to see Aron “Iceman” Jóhannsson on the pitch again at some point, especially if we need a goal late. 

PREDICTION 

The good news for the USMNT starts on the injury front.  First and foremost Benteke ruptured his Achilles tendon back on 4/3 and obviously is not in the 23 for the Red Devils.  Anthony Vanden Borre’s WC is over with a broken leg and Steven Defour picked up a red card in their last match against South Korea.  It doesn’t stop there though because Captain Vincent Kompany is dealing with a groin issue and dangerous striker Romelu Lukaku has a bad ankle.  Laurent Ciman and Thomas Vermaelen are also dealing with unspecified knocks.  Let’s be clear though, their danger man is Eden Hazard and by all accounts he’s still playing. 

Most pundits seem to cast the Belgians as super-talented individually but lacking chemistry as a group.  Even with all their talent they have only scored four goals in three matches thus far.  With all four of their goals coming in the final 20 minutes and three of them from subs.  In the WC so far they have led for 25 minutes, been trailing for 45 and tied for 200.  Those numbers certainly back up their apparent lack of finishing.  

The Yanks on the other hand allowed the most shots (55) during the Group Stage and if guys are really tiring we can’t have another match where the opposition dominates possession.  We were able to have our share of possession against Portugal and I expect this match to more closely resemble that one than the other two (it better). It would also be nice if Bradley reached his top form for the first time all WC.  In Michael’s defense according to FIFA he covered the most ground of any player in the Group Stage (23.6 miles).  So being the fittest player on the fittest team or not, he’s got to play a whole lot better because there are no excuses at this point of the WC. 

First kick on 7/1 will be at 5 PM local time (1 PM Pacific on ESPN) and Salvador will be the best weather the USMNT has seen all WC.  Right now it’s looking like it will be sunny (sun will set during the match) and clear with temperatures in the mid-60’s to high-50’s during the match with “only” 50-60% humidity.  Salvador was also the shortest flight the USMNT faced thus far when they landed on 6/29.  We also got an extra day off by finishing second in Group G which I’m sure was much needed.  The one piece of bad news is that Djamel Haimoudi of Algeria has been named the match referee.  To me African refs are always wild cards at the WC since they are so unpredictable in what they call.  We’ve been pretty lucky so far when it comes to refs and I hope this guy doesn’t do us in with a phantom red card or buying a dive in the box. 

Having four full days off and playing in a moderate climate should benefit the USMNT more than the Belgian’s at this point.  Salvador will be the furthest north the Red Devils have traveled and given their injury woes I just think the USMNT will be in better shape physically.  I expect The Yanks to give up an early goal as is our tradition followed by Bradley equalizing at some point thereafter.  With the match tied at the end of 90 this is where our being the fittest side will really kick in.  Look for the Iceman to net the winner as a substitute coming in the second half of extra time for a final score line of 2-1 USA.

Fixture #2

RECAP 

I was oh so very naïve in thinking that this would be the World Cup (WC) where everything went right for the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT).  I should have known better.  Instead this has become just another WC where we bumble along, miss opportunities, make stupid mistakes and barely scrape by (if we even do that).  

In the 5^th minute Geoff Cameron tried to clear a pretty benign ball from Miguel Veloso only to absolutely butcher it.  He looked like someone who had never played the game before and was stammering drunk trying to kick the ball for the first time.  Of course it fell right to Nani with no one around him and just like that it was 1-0 Portugal.  Beyond Cameron I do have a bit of a quibble with how quickly Tim Howard went to ground given how badly Nani had been struggling, but someone that plays for Manchester United isn’t missing that chance regardless.  The USMNT has now conceded the most goals (7) of any team in the first five minutes in the history of the WC.  So we have that going for us, which is nice. 

For the rest of the first half we played pretty well creating chances and having our share of the possession (48%-52% overall) too.  Then again with A Selecção down four starters from their first match (Bruno Alves ended up playing) how could we not?  That number eventually went up to five in the 16^th minute when Hélder Postiga (who has Hugo Almeida’s replacement) went down with a hamstring injury.  Éder replaced Postiga and in the 45^th minute his rebound off a Nani shot forced an unbelievable save from Howard.  If Timmy doesn’t make that save the USMNT is in BIG trouble. 

The second half started with Portugal Manager Paulo Bento taking off André Almeida in favor of William since the USMNT, and especially Fabian Johnson, were having a lot of joy attacking the Portuguese left flank.  Then in the 55^th minute Graham Zusi played Johnson into space, and after occupying backup goalkeeper Beto, Fabian cut the ball back to Michael Bradley for what should have been a tap in but Ricardo Costa’s knee cleared it off the line.  In the 64^th minute it didn’t matter anymore as Jermaine Jones smashed an absolute cracker off a half-hearted clearance attempt by Nani.  Jermaine’s blast was the longest open-play goal (28.4 yards) at the WC for the USMNT in the past 50 years. 

Bento made his final change at the 69^th minute bringing in Varela (remember that name) for Raul Meireles, again on the left side.  If you are wondering about all the chances the USMNT created on the left it’s because Cristiano Ronaldo does not track back on defense…ever.  So Almeida and Meireles were exhausted covering for him in the heat and humidity of Manaus.  USMNT Manager Jürgen Klinsmann countered by bringing in the speed of DeAndre Yedlin for the tiring Alejandro Bedoya in the 72^nd minute.  I thought this was a major gamble by Klinsy but when Jones sprung Yedlin down the right hand side in the 81^st minute it looked like genius.  DeAndre swung a cross into the mixer which eventually fell to Zusi who gathered himself and setup a completely onside Clint Dempsey who used his stomach to score what should have been the match winner that saw us through to the knockout round. 

The chain reaction of events that led to Varela’s equalizer was like a Keystone Cops routine from the age of silent films.  It started when Klinsmann decided to bring in Omar Gonzalez in the 90^th minute.  I said out loud at the time that Jürgen was over thinking the situation.  Not to mention that I have an irrational fear of Omar being anywhere on the pitch, so I was worried that he’d make the mistake that cost us.  When the Gonzalez-Zusi sub was announced the fourth referee had shown four minutes of added time.  Well Graham took his damn sweet time making his way off the pitch which is not an uncommon occurrence in world football when your side has the lead.  Well before Zusi made it over to the fourth ref the time had been changed to five minutes and Omar’s official sub-in time was 90+1.  So to recap Klinsy made an unnecessary sub that ended up adding another minute of extra time.  Grrrr… 

On the final sequence Portugal had a throw in deep in their own end which led to a 50-50 ball around midfield.  I say 50-50 to be kind because it sure as shit looked to me like Bradley lost what should have been an easy ball to control.  In the days following Everton Manger Roberto Martínez along with Alexi Lalas and Michael Ballack have all said that Bradley was not at fault there.  I’ll defer to them even though I don’t totally agree.  Eventually the ball found Ronaldo who delivered an inch-perfect cross (his only completed cross of the entire match) to the head of Varela which he of course put in the back of the net.  I have absolutely no idea what the fuck Cameron was doing ball-watching there.  There’s only one guy that’s dangerous in that build up for cripes sake!  Yet he runs right by both Fabian and Geoff?  Also, why was Gonzalez put in just so he could be out of position when it mattered most? 

Varela’s tally at the death was the latest recorded regulation goal in the history of the WC (90+4:33).  I know soccer isn’t always fair but what did we do to deserve these kinds of things always going against us?  We lose our one and only target man to an injury that a little more stretching or a less strenuous workload could have easily avoided.  Our consensus best player had his worst match against Ghana and followed it up with a missed open net and the key give away that cost us two points and a chance to advance.  Oh yeah, and Jermaine (our best player in the WC so far) picked up a yellow card in the 75^th minute meaning if he gets another versus Germany he’s out for the Round of 16. 

HISTORY 

We actually played Die Mannschaft back on 6/2/13 in our “Centennial Celebration” and beat them 4-3.  Granted that was probably Germany’s B- side as only seven players from that squad made the final 23 for the WC.  We still beat them but they did have an own goal for the record.  That match was actually a big turning point for the USMNT as it was the start of a 12-match winning streak that included three World Cup Qualifiers, six Gold Cup matches and three friendlies.  As defender Mats Hummels pointed out they are not taking the USMNT lightly this time around. 

According to Nate Sliver’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) the USMNT’s chances to advance were up to 75.7% as of Wednesday morning which is up from 67.9% Friday morning.  Nate lays out all the scenarios here but the USMNT advances with a win or draw against Germany or if Ghana and Portugal draw.  We can still advance with a loss as long as we win the tiebreaker between the winner of the Ghana-Portugal match.  The first tiebreaker is goal differential followed by total goals scored.  There are four more tiebreakers after that but I doubt it comes to those for the USMNT. 

LINEUP 

With Jozy Altidore already ruled out of the match I wouldn’t make any changes to the XI Klinsmann started against Portugal unless there is an injury that I don’t know about.  As for subs Jürgen seems to have the magic touch there getting contributions from John Brooks and Yedlin, two guys I would have never played unless I was forced to. 

PREDICTION 

The USMNT arrived back at their base hotel in São Paulo at 5 AM on 6/23 after the four hour flight back from Manaus.  They left for Recife after light training on 6/24 so that is an extremely quick turnaround for a match on 6/26 (9 AM Pacific on ESPN).  Especially when you consider that the Germans will have a full extra day of rest on us.  First kick in Recife is at 1 PM local time and rain is in the forecast.  I think rain could be an advantage for the USMNT if it blocks out the mid-day sun and makes the pitch a sloppy mess.  Even if the rain doesn’t play a factor at least we get to wear our white kits again. 

Die Mannschaft is 3^rd in the SPI rankings and The Yanks are 18^th so that is a big step in quality from Portugal (15^th) and Ghana (16^th).  That said Germany is definitely slow on the back line as Ghana exposed badly so we will create plenty of chances like we always do these days.  The two questions I have are can we avoid the terrible mental mistakes that continue to haunt us at the WC?  (I’m looking at you Geoff Cameron!)  And will Bradley step up and play like he is supposed to?  I’m thinking the answer to both of those is no which is why I see us losing the match. 

Then it moves on to how many goals do we lose by because I see Ghana laying it on Portugal in a big way, winning by at least two goals.  So if the Black Stars win 3-1 and we lose 0-1 that’s all she wrote and this is the outcome I expect because that is straight up how we roll at the WC.  If Germany would have just beaten Ghana none of this would matter because the Black Stars would be eliminated now and them beating A Selecção wouldn’t affect us at all.  The referee for USA-Germany will be Ravshan Irmatov from Uzbekistan who apparently is one of the best in the world.  That puts my mind at ease a little.  The ref for Ghana-Portugal will be Nawaf Shukralla from Bahrain which I like far, far less. 

Just for the record if you would have offered me four points after two matches before the WC I would not have taken it because I wanted six so that the Germany match would be meaningless.  This whole thing is a crying shame (I’M STILL LOOKING AT YOU GEOFF CAMERON!!!) because the USA-Portugal match was the highest rated sporting event outside of NFL playoff games and the Super Bowl.  It pulled better ratings than the NBA Finals and World Series and was on par with the BCS Championship game.  Yes, for real.  Now the USMNT will lose all the traction they gained over the last ten days and be right back where they started, as an afterthought to most Americans. 

Or maybe I just need to take some advice from The Most Interesting Man in the World…

Fixture #1

RECAP 

I had a feeling coming into this World Cup (WC) that this would be the one where everything went right for the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) and after 30 seconds my inkling was completely reinforced.  30 seconds into the match Clint Dempsey scored off a nice one-touch pass from Jermaine Jones.  As Taylor Twellman said during the broadcast it was “the absolute perfect start.”  Clint’s goal was the fifth fastest in WC history and made him the first American (and 1 of 23 players all time) to score in three WC’s.  The only problem was that things went downhill from there.  

It started with Jozy Altidore pulling up lame with a strained hamstring in the 21^st minute.  The ironic thing about that play was that I jumped off my couch when Michael Bradley played the long ball to him thinking Jozy was about to make something happen.  Then he went down in a heap and just like that the WC where everything went right for the USMNT was over.  Aron “Iceman” Johannsson came on for Altidore but he was not able to replicate anything close to what Jozy brings to the table.  

It didn’t stop there though as Dempsey got a shin to the face that broke his nose in the 33^rd minute from John Boye.  Boye, probably not so coincidentally, was the same guy that Clint burned for the first goal.  How that high boot was not a yellow card I’ll never know.  Matt Besler also had to be subbed out at halftime for “precautionary reason” with hamstring tightness.  Then in the 77^th minute Alejandro Bedoya was subbed out due to an old hip pointer flaring up.  If you’re keeping score that’s all three of our subs used on injuries in the first match.  Not a good sign. 

Anyway, immediately following the first goal Bradley moved from the tip of the diamond back into a holding midfield role and from there the USMNT struggled to maintain any semblance of possession.  It didn’t help us that Bradley (our best player) played the worst match that I have seen him play in eons.  Without him dominating the midfield like he usually does Ghana had the edge in possession (59%-41%), shots (21-8) and shots on goal (8-7).  Watching the match live you had the feeling the Black Stars were going to equalize and in the 82^nd minute Andre Ayew slotted home a back-heel from Asamoah Gyan.  It was a very professional pass and finish but my man Fabian Johnson did get caught ball watching for just a second and that’s all Ayew needed.  

Just as I was trying to rationalize how a draw was a good result in my head Iceman earned us a corner kick.  Graham Zusi (who came on for Bedoya) played a perfect corner into the box and 21-year old John Brooks’ (who came on for Besler) header found the back of the net in the 86^th minute.  Yes, that would be our three subs that made the winning goal happen.  It was Brooks’ first goal with the USMNT in only his fifth cap and it made him the first substitute ever to score for the USMNT at the WC.  After the match Brooks, who is now permanently cap-tied to the USMNT, told the media he had a dream two nights earlier that he scored the winning goal against Ghana in the 88^th minute.  Pfft...his dream was off by two minutes!  We managed to hang on during what seemed like an exceedingly long spell of injury time to get the vital three points. 

HISTORY 

How vital were those three point exactly?  As I said in my preview the USMNT has advanced out of the group stage in all four of the WC’s where they have earned points in their first match.  The good news doesn’t stop there though.  Under this current WC format 85% of the teams that have won their opener have advanced to the knockout round (39 of 46).  Nate Silver’s Soccer Power Index chances of the USMNT advancing jumped from 36.8% prior to the WC to 67.9% as of Friday morning.  Speaking of Nate he breaks down the nine remaining permutations for the USMNT here. 

LINEUP 

Unfortunately Altidore has been ruled out of the Portugal match on 6/22 (3 PM Pacific on ESPN) but the good news in that Manager Jürgen Klinsmann is “full of hope that he comes back still in this tournament.”  My interpretation of that is if we make it out of the group stage Jozy might be back for the knockout round.  The problem with Altidore not being ready to go is that there is no like-for-like guy on the bench behind him.  Meaning we have no other target-man that can play as a lone striker and hold up the ball so his teammates can join the attack.  

This is where Jürgen deserves some criticism.  I can understand not calling Eddie Johnson into the 30 because he was in poor form at DC United.  That same excuse doesn’t work for leaving Terrence Boyd off the 23 though.  Boyd was on fire for Rapid Vienna at the end of their season scoring six times in his last four matches (he had 20 goals overall).  Terrence is actually an inch taller than Jozy at 6’2 and would have been a like-for-like sub.  Whatever, it’s too late now. 

The way I see it Klinsy has two options against A Selecção.  Option one is he can stay with the diamond 4-4-2 and put Johannsson or Chris Wondolowski in Altidore’s spot to keep things similar.  I’ve been a big supporter of the Iceman but he kinda sorta looked not ready for the big stage against Ghana.  I’d probably lean toward giving him another chance over Wondo but I’d bet both see the pitch against Portugal at some point anyway. 

Option two is to go back to the old reliable 4-2-3-1 with Clint taking Jozy’s spot up top as the lone striker.  This isn’t the ideal role for Dempsey but it’s one that he can play in a pinch.  Plus we have no one else hence he’s our best option.  The back line would stay the same with Jones and Kyle Beckerman in front of them.  Bedoya would move to the left with Bradley in the middle and Zusi on the right.  If this is the way he goes I think my boy Mix Diskerud is the first sub in. 

The second option is undoubtedly the safer play but I don’t think that matters to Jürgen one bit.  Both of these lineups also assume that Bedoya and Besler are fit enough to play (fingers crossed).  No matter what he chooses to do, and to be fair he does have a bit of a magic touch when it comes to lineups, we won’t know until the pregame show starts.  

PREDICTION 

The other area where Klinsmann warrants some heat is that we had three muscle injuries in our first match.  How can that happen with this supposedly grueling training regimen we’ve been on for over a month now?  Well the answer is that Klinsy might have overcooked them a little bit to the point where their bodies weren’t able to recover like they normally should.  The reason behind all the insane training is that we have to play in the rainforest city of Manaus on Sunday where the humidity is expected to be around 90%.  So we shall see if all the hard work was worth it or not soon enough but at least we get to wear our white kits. 

The Portuguese could be down as many as FIVE starters of their own on Sunday and that’s not including Cristiano Ronaldo who won’t be 100% fit (tendinosis left knee) no matter what spin comes from their camp.  From what I read Pepe (red card) is their best defender and his partner in central defense Bruno Alves missed training on Friday with an adductor problem.  Fábio Coentrão is their left back and second best player overall.  He’s the guy that links with Ronaldo on the left side and springs Cristiano for the dangerous counterattacks he is known for.  Goalkeepr Rui Patrício may also be out so that means 4/5 of their original defense might miss the match!  Hugo Almeida is their center forward so both sides could be missing their target men.    

Now I assume that A Selecção has better depth than us but let me tell you I watched their match with Germany and this is a side in disarray.  Ronaldo demands the ball every time they have it and if he doesn’t get it he pouts and stops playing.  If he gets it and passes to someone who messes up he pouts and stops playing.  This spreads like a cancer and the whole team was following Ronaldo’s lead by about mid-way through the second half.  Not to mention that another one of their “stars” Nani played like garbage and apparently has been well off his normal form for quite a while now. 

I don't love that Néstor Pitana from Argentina was named referee but I just have a feeling that if we score the first goal Portugal will eventually quit.  The pressure, humidity, choppy pitch and bad chemistry will combine to just wear them down mentally.  Of course that assumes we are able to maintain possession MUCH better than we did against the Black Stars.  That means Bradley has to return to his normal form as our best player, which I think he will.  This might be the Philadelphian in me sneaking out but the USMNT always tends to find the banana peel when things are setup perfectly for them.  Which would be a crying shame since the entire country is WC crazy right now and advancing to the knockout round would ratchet interest up to another level entirely.  This should be another exciting and excruciatingly pressure packed match to watch but I’m going USA 2-1.

From Wikipedia…

World Cup Preview

RECAP 

The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) began their Send-Off Series with a 2-0 win over Azerbaijan on 5/27 in San Francisco.  The match got off to a nervy start when Captain Clint Dempsey was scratched during warm-ups with groin soreness.  From there the USMNT struggled to break down the Milli who kept ten men behind the ball at all times.  With the opposition playing so compact the 4-4-2 diamond formation that debuted on 4/2 in a friendly against Mexico didn’t produce many chances.  The USMNT did dominate possession though (70%-30%) and finally broke through in the 75^th minute when substitute Mix Diskerud booted home a rebound off a Michael Bradley shot.  Aron Johannsson (another sub) added the second in the 81^st minute when he headed in a Brad Davis corner.  

Overall there wasn’t a ton to take away from this match since Azerbaijan played a style that the USMNT is unlikely to see at the World Cup (WC).  That said they did get the win and it has to be noted that the windy conditions and heavy legs from two weeks of intense training also played a part in them looking sluggish. 

On 6/1 in Harrison, NJ the diamond formation was in full effect creating a ton of chances against a very wily Turkish side.  The only problem was that we pressed so much offensively that our back line was put under a lot of pressure and looked extremely vulnerable.  The statistics back it up too as the Ay Yıldızlılar had the edge in possession (57%-43%), shots (23-8) and shots on goal (7-4).  Of course we did get the win thanks to a brilliant goal by Fabian Johnson (his first) in the 26^th minute.  The one-two he played with Bradley was sublime and lends credence to having Michael playing a more creative role rather than a defensive one.  Dempsey got the second tally when he poked home a misplayed clearance by Turkish defender Hakan Balta.  It wasn’t all roses though as Geoff Cameron was judged to have handled Mustafa Pekternek’s shot on the goal line in the 90^th minute.  Selcuk Inan slotted home the subsequent penalty kick (PK) to round out the 2-1 score line.  

I took two things away from this match.  One, when we put our minds to it we can create chances against anyone.  Two, our defense is not up to the task when we press numbers forward. 

In Jacksonville, FL on 6/7 it all came together for the USMNT against Nigeria.  Manager Jürgen Klinsmann inserted Kyle Beckerman into the starting XI and planted him right in front of the back four at the base of the diamond.  This shifted Jermaine Jones to the left and allowed the USMNT to have their most solid performance on both ends against an opponent that is very similar to Ghana.  On offense we played the now seemingly preferred 4-4-2 attacking diamond.  However when the Super Eagles had the ball we morphed into almost a 4-1-4-1 with both Dempsey and Bradley tracking back to clog up the midfield and not leave the back line so exposed.  This tactical switch along with Beckerman playing the holding destroyer role he is built for made Klinsmann look very smart. 

That’s not all though.  Jozy Altidore finally got off the schnide in a big way with a brace.  His first goal came in the 32^nd minute off a really professional counter attack that saw the ball move quickly from Cameron in the back to Jones to Alejandro Bedoya to Fabian who set it up on a platter for Jozy.  Sometimes all you need is a tap in to get yourself going and that proved to be true as Altidore’s next strike was top-notch.  He chested down a long ball from Bradley, controlled the ball with one touch, got himself some space with the second touch and then blasted home a rocket from 15 yards out.  Things would have gone absolutely perfect had Matt Besler not pulled down Victor Moses in the box in the 86^th minute.  Moses made the ensuing PK ruining Tim Howard’s clean sheet on his 100^th cap. 

This match was a great approximation of what the USMNT will see against Ghana and it really couldn’t have gone any better besides the late PK.  We were able to create chances (14 shots, 6 on goal) while not being broken down even though Nigeria had the possession edge (53%-47%).  I suspect all three of the USMNT’s matches in Brazil will follow a similar pattern so call me cautiously optimistic right now. 

After going 3-0 in the Send-Off Series for the first time ever (also the only side heading into the WC on a 3-game winning streak) the USMNT landed in São Paulo on 6/9 a little before 9 AM local time.  They were supposed to have a closed-door scrimmage against Belgium on their training grounds at São Paulo F.C. on 6/12 but Belgium Manager Marc Wilmots didn’t want to risk being caught in a traffic jam stemming from the subway strike.  This is really the only thing that has gone wrong in the lead up to the first match, other than Brad Davis and Timmy Chandler having “unspecified knocks” that have kept them out of training.  The USMNT flew to Natal, the site of their first match, on 6/13 to have three days to get used to the muggy conditions in the northeast part of the country. 

LINEUP 

For the match against the Black Stars on 6/16 (3 PM Pacific on ESPN) I expect Jürgen to deploy more or less the same lineup that he did against Nigeria.  In front of Howard’s goal going left to right will be DaMarcus Beasley, Besler, Cameron and Fabian.  That group played together in all of the Send-Off matches except against Turkey where Chandler started over Beasley.  In front of them will likely be Beckerman doing what he does best.  I have two concerns about Kyle playing a big role though.  The first is his lack of foot speed against the best in the world.  Secondly playing him means we lose an attacking player in the starting XI.  That is small price to pay if it gets us 3 points but it does limit our offense some. 

Jermaine seems destined to play on the left side of the diamond and either Bedoya or Graham Zusi will be opposite him on the right.  Ideally you’d like to have both Alejandro and Graham’s playmaking ability on the pitch together but as the Turkey match showed we need more defense than offense right now.  Bradley, Dempsey and Altidore will shoulder most of the creative responsibilities up front and I give Klinsmann credit for not over-thinking having our three most talented players deployed where they can work together. 

As for substitutes with Chandler’s status uncertain I don’t see any subs coming in for the back four unless there is an injury.  If any of Omar Gonzalez, John Brooks or DeAndre Yedlin sees the pitch we are in big trouble.  Howard is one of the best keepers in the world and it would stink to lose him but Brad Guzan is a more than capable backup if it comes to that.  Whoever doesn’t start out of Bedoya and Zusi is the first option in the midfield followed by Davis.  Julian Green looked like a boy amongst men when he played versus Turkey so he is just along for the ride.  (Yes, Landon Donovan should have made the 23 over him.)  Up front one of Chris Wondolowski or Johannsson could be used although it was rumored that Aron wasn’t ready to play since he really struggled with the intense training that the USMNT went through.  Lastly my boy Mixy could come in for really anyone from Beckerman to Dempsey depending on what Jürgen thinks the team needs at the time. 

HISTORY 

Every time the USMNT has earned points out of their first match in the WC they have advanced past the group stage.  In 1994 we drew with Switzerland 1-1, 2002 we beat Portugal 3-2 and in 2010 another 1-1 draw this time with England.  The other side of that coin shows that when we lose the first match we never advance.  In 1990 we lost 1-5 to Czechoslovakia, 1998 to Germany 0-2 and in 2006 it was the Czech Republic again 0-3.  You’ll also notice a pattern of us advancing out of the group every other cycle meaning we are due to be eliminated in 2014.  I choose to ignore that and instead focus on a how a win against the Black Stars in our first match would galvanize the country and ratchet up interest about 10-fold. 

By now everyone knows that Ghana has knocked us out of the last two WCs.  In 2006 they took us out in the final group match 2-1 when a win would have seen us advance.  In 2010 they got us in extra time in the round of 16 by the same final score line of 2-1.  The players on both sides keep saying how none of that matters since both teams feature different players, coaches and systems.  Well let me be the first to say that it matters to me.  I WANT REVENGE!  Sure there may be some differences between the two but one thing remains the same and it’s the crest on the front of the kit. 

PREDICTION 

I have no doubt that we can beat Ghana if we play our best but we can’t have any momentary mental lapses on the back line.  It also would be HUGE to score the first goal (for a change) and dictate the match from there.  But being that we are the USMNT don’t be surprised if we go down 0-1 early.  Going into a WC as a USMNT supporter you also have to expect that a referee will make a terrible call that goes against us.  Either a good goal that we score will be disallowed or an offside call will be missed allowing the opposition to score.  This WC has already shown us that a dive in the box can easily sway the wrong ref.  Sweden’s Jonas Eriksson has been named the referee for our first match and I’d prefer a European any day over an African, Asian or South American. 

Even if some kind of disaster strikes us early there is no reason to abandon hope.  We are a resilient bunch and can create the necessary chances to get back into any match.  I honestly think that world football pundits are underrating us a little right now.  I watch all of our matches and we can hang with anybody these days, Germany and Portugal included.  Who would have thought that fellow CONCACAF side Costa Rica would beat powerhouse Uruguay 3-1?  My point being that we will never be the most talented group but at this point you take us lightly at your own risk because on any given match day we can win regardless of opponent. 

With that said I do expect us to shock the world and advance out of the Group of Death.  I think you’ll see an exciting match against Ghana that we win 3-2 or at the very least draw 2-2.  Playing Portugal with an ailing Cristiano Ronaldo in the rainforest of Manaus where the condition of the pitch isn’t the greatest doesn’t scare me.  In fact I’m most confident that we beat A Selecção.  Heading into the final group match against Die Mannschaft having six points and not needing a result would be fabulous because even as overly-optimistic as I might be I don’t see that one going well for us.  Keep in mind that if Germany has already qualified for the knockout round Manager Joachim Löw might do his old pal Klinsy a favor by giving a few of his best XI some “rest.” 

I’ll have more after the Ghana match but until then enjoy the festivities.

NBA Finals

The first NBA Finals rematch since the summer of ’98 when the Bulls and Jazz clashed has everyone giddy with anticipation, right?  I mean people should be excited with Miami going for a 3-peat and Tim Duncan and Coach Gregg Popovich trying to join the 5-ring club.  The Heat would be just the fourth franchise to win three straight joining the Lakers (’52-54 & ’00-02), Celtics (’59-66) and Bulls (’91-93 & ’96-98).  Duncan would join contemporary Kobe Bryant while passing rival Shaquille O’Neal and Pop would join Pat Riley and John Kundla in a tie for third overall.  But it just feels like the general public isn’t as into it as they should be with all these historical ramifications on the line.  Or maybe I’m just projecting my own feelings onto everyone else as I count down the days to the World Cup. 

I was very tempted to just reference Zach Lowe’s preview, give my prediction and call it good.  Instead I’ll try to force out some actual analysis.  Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra has used three different starting lineups in the playoffs with the latest featuring Rashard Lewis as the PF du jour.  I think Spo needs to stick with that and resist the temptation to play Udonis Haslem any more than he absolutely has to.  Chris Andersen is the best option to match San Antonio’s size but Birdman is slightly injured (left thigh) and his production drops once he crosses the 20-minute mark anyway.  With Mike Miller gone the Heat are going to need one of Shane Battier or James Jones to join Ray Allen in providing timely 3-point shooting. 

For the Spurs a lot will be riding on the health of Tony Parker’s left ankle.  He says he’s fine and with potentially three different 2-day breaks between Finals games (the NBA finally switched back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format) he should at least be able to maintain the health level he starts out with.  Even if he can’t go Patty Mills has done a fine job filling in for Tony this year.  Granted Mills is no Parker but SA did go 11-3 without the speedy Frenchman this season.  Kawhi Leonard is a good option for LeBron James, Duncan can guard Chris Bosh and Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Marco Bellinelli can defend this version of Dwyane Wade. 

Rest or rust won’t be an issue in this series since Miami had five days off and the Spurs four.  What will be an issue is depth, or lack thereof.  Rotations are generally shortened in the playoffs but SA has a legitimate 12 guys that will be ready to play and contribute at any given moment.  The Heat can basically rely on seven players (Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Wade, Ray, Bron, Bosh and Bird) which gives Pop a lot more adjustment options over the course of seven games.  Then you factor in that Miami has beaten an undermanned Charlotte side, an overrated Brooklyn squad and an imploding Indiana club.  I know you can only play whose in front of you but I think the Heat would have struggled quite a bit more with Dallas, Portland and Oklahoma City.

Much has been made about the Spurs and the “bad taste in their mouth” from last year’s implosion.  Extra motivation never hurts but the bottom line is that SA is a better unit than they were last season.  It’s borderline idiotic to pick against the best player in the world in his prime but this Miami team just isn’t as good as last year’s version.  So if the Spurs are better and the Heat are worse there’s only one conclusion to make.  SA in 5.