Quick Thoughts on Opening Night

> Miami’s offense definitely looked very rough but that will certainly improve with time. What should concern Heat fans, outside of their extremely poor big man rotation, is that when things got tight the offense devolved into the LeBron James Cavaliers version 2.0. Meaning there was lots of standing around while Bron held the ball or jacked up jumpers.

> Boston’s defense on the other hand looked air tight as always. You add Delonte West (suspended) and Kendrick Perkins (right knee) to this roster and they almost have too much talent. Obviously I feel very good about my pick of the Celtics to win the East.

Oh yeah, Kevin Garnett will absolutely eat Chris Bosh alive in a seven-game series. I’d bet money on this in Vegas right now if I could.

> Portland looked as good or better than I thought they would. Wesley Matthews seems to be fitting in nicely, Rudy Fernandez looked like his old self and rookie PG Armon Johnson might be a real find as the 34th pick. Once they get Joel Przybilla (right knee) and Greg Oden (left knee) back to solidify their big man depth, look out. Also keep in mind that the Blazers don’t really need a healthy Oden to be good. Marcus Camby and the “Vanilla Gorilla” is a center tandem that most teams in the league would kill for.

> As for Phoenix, you don’t want to make too much out of one game, but YUCK!

> Houston was exactly who I thought they were; ridiculously deep, talented and two completely different sides with Yao Ming and without. Coach Rick Adelman has to be smarter about how he uses Yao’s 24 minutes. Mainly, he needs to be on the floor for the last 4-5 minutes of the game.

> It’s obvious that with Kobe Bryant only at 65-75% and no Andrew Bynum (right knees on both) that the Lakers are just a really good squad, not a great one. The dirty little secret in LA has been, and will continue to be, that when Bynum doesn’t play the Laker D is nowhere near as good. That said the new additions paid immediate dividends.

I loved Matt Barnes’ hustle, tenacity (four of his five rebounds were on the offensive end) and how he played within himself and the offense. But Steve Blake was the real story making three huge 3-pointers. Two in the last minute of the 3rd quarter that cut a nine point lead to five, and of course the game winner with 18 seconds left. But most importantly Blake played the entire 4th quarter. One can only hope that coach Phil Jackson keeps this rotation and that we’ve seen the last of Derek Fisher as a regular season closer.

(And just for the record Blake (+13) and Barnes (+12) recorded the two highest +/- ratings for the game. Awwwww yeah…)

Preview Post Scripts

With all the bragging about my prognostication skills and kvetching over the new labor agreement I feel like I missed making a few points.

> There are a whopping 12 good teams in the West and a hefty 9 bad teams in the East. Seriously.

> I feel pretty solid about 7 of my picks in the West and 6 in the East but the Clipper and Indiana picks give me pause.

> I don’t expect you’ll see the Lakers and Boston show a lot of interest in the regular season because they both know they can win on the road come playoff time.

> While my “official” pick to win it all is LA, as a Laker fan the Celtics really, really worry me in a seven-game series.

(But if you think I’m picking Boston over LA as NBA Champions you got another thing coming.)

Western Conference Preview

While I am normally the biggest NBA cheerleader you’ll ever have the misfortune of engaging in a conversation, I can’t stop myself from taking a doom and gloom approach this year. Even with the Association sitting on the precipice of one of the greatest seasons in recent memory, if not all time, I just can’t shake the feeling that the owners and the NBPA (players union) will royally screw it all up come June 30th.

I know common sense says there is no way either side would risk all of this good will and popularity for another work stoppage, but when Commissioner David Stern is trying to get out ahead of the story on October 22nd anything is possible. Among the gems that “Easy Dave” put out there are that the league wants to reduce player’s salaries by one-third ($750-800 million) because of the “diseconimic situation” they find themselves in (league projects to lose $340-350 million this season).

The biggest bomb Stern dropped though was that contraction (reducing the total number of teams in the NBA) is on the table. Executive Director of the NBPA Billy Hunter confirmed that contraction is indeed an option and that the All-Star break is the unofficial deadline to know whether there will be a work stoppage or not (the Commish agrees).

Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail but even if they can avoid a strike/lockout scenario it will undoubtedly get ugly in the press. This is still bad in my opinion since the NBA always seems to be treated more harshly by the media than other leagues when controversies arise.

I wish I could be more optimistic, but being such a close follower of the NBA I know where this going. A prolonged lockout with many games lost and the owners eventually getting 80-90% of what they were asking for in the first place. Then the backlash from the writers will be “If this was going to be the deal, what took the players so long to agree?”

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong, on to business…

1. Los Angeles Lakers – My boys had an underrated summer adding serious upgrades at three backup positions with Matt Barnes (Luke Walton), Steve Blake (Jordan Farmar) and Theo Ratliff (D.J. Mbenga). That said I think you are going to see LA start out very slowly while the right knees of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum heal. And even when they are 100% back I don’t see the Lakers taking the regular season all that seriously.

Eyes On – Ron Artest. He has lost weight & is very fit, clearly understands the triangle better and generally played great in the preseason.

Now or Never – Sasha Vujacic. His best season was his last contract year (’07-08), so here’s to hoping for a repeat performance. Even if he stinks again the guy is engaged to Maria Sharapova.

2. Portland Trail Blazers –I like the Blazers more than most other pundits because they were racked with injuries last season, still won 50 games and were looking poised to make a run in the playoffs until Brandon Roy hurt his right knee. Obviously they need to be healthy to finish this high, but they are still young, deep and talented. Besides injuries the only other thing I see derailing this squad is poor chemistry, which is very possible.

Eyes On – Nicolas Batum. He entered the league as strictly a defender/spot up shooter, but I think the French youngster is ready to display much more of a well rounded game this season.

Now or Never – Dante Cunningham. With Greg Oden (left knee) and Joel Przybilla (right knee) out indefinitely Dante will see tons of minutes at both backup PF and center.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder – This is everyone’s favorite club as the season starts and I can’t say that I disagree. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook look ready to take the next step into super-stardom and this team’s chemistry makes them a joy to watch. I do worry about the quality of their big man depth, but as long as they continue to defend, rebound and play hard they will be very good in the regular season.

Eyes On – Serge Ibaka. This long, athletic, jumping jack from Congo really broke out in the playoffs. His continued development could take OKC to another level.

Now or Never – Jeff Green. I’ve always thought he was more of a first forward off the bench/sixth man type than a starter. GM Sam Presti has a very tough decision on his hands as Green is about to be a restricted free agent.

4. San Antonio Spurs – This might be a little too high for this aging crew, but Tony Parker missed 26 games last season and this is his contract year, so I expect a bounce-back campaign from TP. I also like that coach Gregg Popovich is starting Manu Ginobili, moving Tim Duncan to center and starting DeJuan Blair at PF. A more balanced starting unit combined with some youth off the bench will serve them well.

Eyes On – Tiago Splitter. Assuming the rookie big man from Brazil gets over his right calf injury he could make a huge difference in SA.

Now or Never – Richard Jefferson. I guess a career low PER of 13.18 and shooting 31.6% from three earns you four-years $38.8 million. RJ needs to do something to show he’s still worth that kind of coin.

5. Dallas Mavericks – Even though the Mavs are very deep and versatile once again I’m a little more down on their prospects than most experts are. The reason being I’m not sure their defense will be up to snuff with the age of some of their main players. Jason Kidd is 37, Jason Terry 33 and Dirk Nowitzki & Shawn Marion are 32. That said Dallas has a knack for winning close games and enough depth to still be dangerous.

Eyes On – Roddy Beaubois. There’s talk of him starting at SG once his broken left foot heals. I think this would be a great idea since Big D desperately needs his athleticism.

Now or Never – Caron Butler & Tyson Chandler. Both guys enter their contract years coming off their second worst PER’s ever (13.77 & 12.58 respectively).

6. Houston Rockets – If Yao Ming wasn’t going to be limited to 24 minutes a night while recovering from left foot surgery I’d have this bunch much, much higher. They are two, and almost three, deep at every position and possess great chemistry. What worries me is their shaky team defense and lack of a prime time go-to-guy. Regardless, it would not surprise me to see the Rockets finish as high as second if everything goes right for them.

Eyes On – Luis Scola. The tear he’s been on since Carl Landry was traded (2/20/10) continued right through the World Championships and I don’t see it stopping now.

Now or Never – Kevin Martin. He’s the second highest paid player on a team with a genuine need for a go-to scorer in the clutch.

7. Utah Jazz – I’m not totally sold on the Jazz because their depth is suspect at every position but most glaringly with their bigs. Since Memo Okur is out indefinitely (left Achilles’) they are left with Kyrylo Fesenko and Francisco Elson as front court backups. I also think their defense and 3-point shooting will take a step backwards this season. But any team with Deron Williams that is coached by Jerry Sloan is making the playoffs.

Eyes On – Al Jefferson. He’s never been in a winning situation, had a good coach or a decent PG. Now he has all three and is still only 25 years old.

Now or Never – Andrei Kirilenko. He’s the sixth highest paid player in the NBA at $17.8 million entering his contract year. Obviously he’ll never see that type of money again, but he could still prove himself to be an effective player if he wants to.

8. Los Angeles Clippers – I know I said “never again” after picking them to make the playoffs last year, but I just like the makeup of this group on paper too much. There are worries though; like PG depth, 3-point shooting and coach Vinny Del Negro’s temper. But their front court is very deep, they should be much improved on the boards and VDN is a solid defensive coach. That said I’ll probably regret this pick in a week.

Eyes On – Blake Griffin. This makes the third rookie I’ve mentioned in my previews, but trust me; this kid is going to be a stud.

Now or Never – Baron Davis. If he is mentally engaged, running the offense like a top flight PG should and playing smart (i.e. no stupid 3’s) the Clips will surprise.

9. Phoenix Suns – I picked the Suns to finish ninth last year and they burned me. Since I don’t really like their roster on paper picking them this high is strictly out of respect to Steve Nash. Owner Robert Sarver has managed to surround Nash with about seven guys that do roughly the same things. I guess their plan is to play small ball 100% of the time. That should be entertaining to watch, but I don’t see it being enough in the West.

Eyes On – Robin Lopez. When he was named starter last season Phoenix took off. They really need his muscle, rebounding and post defense since he is the only big man that provides them with those things.

Now or Never – Hedo Turkoglu. Coming off his lowest PER (13.33) since his rookie season and still having four-years $44 million left on his contract he must produce immediately.

10. Memphis Grizzlies – The main things this crew has going for them are continuity, rebounding and low post scoring. I question whether they can really maintain the solid chemistry they had last season though. With three starters bucking for new contracts (the two below and Marc Gasol) it remains to be seen how those guys will react to Rudy Gay being completely overpaid (five-years $81 million) while ownership stonewalls them.

Eyes On – Zach Randolph. I have a hard time believing Z-Bo is going to duplicate his performance from a year ago, both on and off the court.

Now or Never – Mike Conley. He’ll be a restricted free agent after the season and hasn’t really ever shown much to begin with.

11. New Orleans Hornets – You know that it pains me greatly to have a Chris Paul led team this low. If the sale of the franchise from the notorious cheapskate George Shinn to the deep-pocketed Gary Chouest had taken place things might be different. But now not only is the franchise in limbo, but so is the best player’s (CP3) desire to be there. I’m not even mentioning their comical lack of depth, questionable defense or poor rebounding.

Eyes On – Peja Stojakovic. I’m interested to see how hard he tries now that he’s a bench player with an expiring contract.

Now or Never – Marco Belinelli. He can’t ask for more than being handed the starting SG job as he’s about to enter restricted free agency.

12. Denver Nuggets – You can’t talk about the Nugs without mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Carmelo Anthony’s eventual trade. Then factor in that Kenyon Martin (left knee), Chris Andersen (right knee) and Al Harrington (left foot) all won’t be 100% to start the season and I don’t envy coach George Karl. If Anthony is not traded this pick will look silly when Denver makes the playoffs, but from what I hear it’s when, not if.

Eyes On – Vice President Masai Ujiri. What he receives in return for Melo will define his legacy as a personnel man.

Now or Never – J.R. Smith. If he is more than an athletic head case that can shoot 3’s his contract year would be a good time to show it.

13. Sacramento Kings – They have the lowest payroll in the NBA and the Commissioner just said “My optimism on there being a new building [in Sacramento] has faded completely.” (Contraction anyone?) There is some hope for the Kings as they have two promising young building blocks in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. I just don’t think they have enough at the SG/SF positions to consistently score enough points to win.

Eyes On – Omri Casspi. The young Israeli has a nice touch from deep, always plays hard and isn’t afraid to mix it up with anyone. Should excel as a sixth man.

Now or Never – Samuel Dalembert. He has no more excuses not to produce coming off a career high PER (16.84) as he enters his contract year.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves – You really have to wonder what President David Kahn’s plan is here? His moves tend to have no rhyme or reason and leave absolutely no hint of what the long term direction of the franchise is. He did however improve his club’s overall depth from putrid to mediocre, so I guess that’s something. I’m going out on a limb and predicting the Wolves won’t be the worst team in the league.

Eyes On – Kevin Love. With the departure of Al Jefferson Love is the only legitimate PF on the roster. He should blossom as the unquestioned best player on the team now.

Now or Never – Corey Brewer. Even though he has improved ever so slightly over the course of his three seasons he’ll have to make an enormous jump in productivity to earn even a mid-level contract as a restricted free agent.

15. Golden State Warriors – The good news is that owner Chris Cohan finally sold the team and that the new owners fired coach Don Nelson. The bad news is that this group is still built to play Nellie-ball and will be coached by a Nellie disciple in Keith Smart. I just don’t see this bunch playing any type of defense at all but their rebounding should be slightly improved. They will definitely score points and be entertaining to watch though.

Eyes On – Dorell Wright. He’s been in the Association for six years and is still only 24. He should earn oodles of minutes as the sole defensive stopper on a squad in clear need of one.

Now or Never – David Lee. After signing a six-year $80 million contract he has to prove he is more than an energy/rebounding guy whose stats were inflated by the Knicks’ system.

Final Four – Lakers, San Antonio, Houston, Portland

Western Finals – Lakers, Portland

NBA Finals – Boston, Lakers

NBA Champion – Lakers

Eastern Conference Preview

I usually save my bragging about my past successes in predicting the NBA for my West preview, but this year I have another topic to tackle there. So the rundown goes like this…

In three of the past four seasons I have picked the eventual champion in October.

In five of the past six seasons I have picked at least one of the Finals teams in October.

Last year I had three of the final four teams, both Finals teams and the champ in October.

With that out of the way, on to business…

1. Miami Heat – Over the course of the year this team will just have too much talent for the opposition on most nights. Coach Erik Spoelstra has to use the regular season to develop a reliable ball movment offense because come playoff time a bunch of fast breaks mixed with some half court isolations won’t cut it. Whether or not these guys can consistently defend at a high enough level is probably the biggest question they face.

Eyes On – President Pat Riley. If things are going bad, or even if they aren’t, will Riles be able to resist the urge to stab yet another protégé in the back and return to coaching?

Now or Never – Joel Anthony. After singing a 5-year $18 million contract this career 2.6 scorer and 3.2 rebounder per game will start at center. He better be able to defend for that much coin.

2. Orlando Magic – Not much changed in the Magic Kingdom over the off season except newcomers Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. While Duhon is an upgrade over Jason Williams I’m not so sure Q-Rich is over Matt Barnes. This bunch is still very deep, will play excellent defense and use their post up game to create open 3-pointers for their plethora of shooters. That’s a very tough formula to beat in the regular season.

Eyes On – Dwight Howard. He worked with Hakeem Olajuwon in the summer on low post/counter moves and has vowed to be “more serious” and “more of a leader” this season.

Now or Never – Vince Carter. This is a virtual contract year for him since his $18 million for next season is a team option. If he ever wants to see money like that again he’ll have to do better than a 17.11 PER.

3. Boston Celtics – I really like what GM Danny Ainge did in addressing the C’s weaknesses this summer by shoring up their backup PG position and increasing their big man depth. That said I do have concerns about Lawrence Frank replacing defensive guru Tom Thibodeau as lead assistant. As long as coach Doc Rivers can keep everyone relatively fresh/healthy for the playoffs I think it’s very premature to write this group off.

Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. He says he’s excited to play alongside four future Hall of Famers, but will he really put aside his ego in the prime of his career?

Now or Never – Delonte West. He signed a 1-year deal for the veteran’s minimum on a team that needs exactly what he does off the bench. Can he stay out of trouble though?

4. Chicago Bulls – It’s going to take some time for them to gel with a new coach, a whopping TEN new players and they won’t have Carlos Boozer (right hand) until sometime in December. When healthy and used to each other these guys should play great defense & rebound, have a true low post scoring option and improve their 3-point shooting. I really like the makeup of this team and think they can be very dangerous in the playoffs.

Eyes On – Coach Tom Thibodeau. While his defensive acumen can never be questioned there have been many whispers about Thib not relating to players or understanding rotations.

Now or Never – Luol Deng. With 4-years $51 million left on his contract it’s hard to believe his best PER is 18.79 (’06-07). If he can’t produce as a third option on this squad he never will.

5. Milwaukee Bucks – How far the Deer go this season depends largely on how well Andrew Bogut’s right hand, wrist and elbow have healed. If he returns to anywhere near 20.81 PER form the Bucks will be very tough. Even without Bogut they are very deep, have more than enough scoring and should be improved on the boards as well. With Scott Skiles as coach you know they will always play hard and work on defense.

Eyes On – Brandon Jennings. After a rookie season where he proved everyone wrong will he be able to keep all of the egos on this club happy and still “get his?”

Now or Never – John Salmons & Corey Maggette. This is the best chance either of these two me-first gunners has had to win. Can they play team ball for once in their careers? Do they even know how?

6. Atlanta Hawks – Other than switching coaches not much has changed in the A.T.L., unless you are expecting a big year from Josh Powell at backup PF. They will have the same starting five and same second five (with the exception of Powell) as last season. It would not surprise me at all if they missed the playoffs, but with the East being so awful behind them they are probably safe for one more year.

Eyes On – Coach Larry Drew. A rookie coach, a combustible mix of players and high expectations…what could possibly go wrong?

Now or Never – Joe Johnson. Since he got paid like a franchise player this off season (6-years $123 million) it’s time for him to play like one or take the criticism like a man if he doesn’t.

7. Indiana Pacers – I think a healthy Pacer club has a little bit more on both offense and defense to separate them from the pack below. Even if they don’t make the playoffs Indiana will have massive salary cap room next summer and both President Larry Bird & coach Jim O’Brien are in the final years of their contracts. So if this bunch turns out to be a mess (again) ownership can start completely from scratch.

Eyes On – Darren Collison. After an All-Rookie First Team season he gets to be the unquestioned starter and run his own team in a system tailor made for him.

Now or Never – Mike Dunleavy Jr. He enters his contract year coming off two seasons in which a troublesome right knee limited him to 85 games combined.

8. New York Knicks – Make no mistake, this squad’s ceiling is that of a regular season team that gets by on being unconventional and difficult to prepare for on short notice. They still won’t play any defense or rebound, but they should be able to outscore the dregs below them pretty regularly. Then again, they could easily be just another entertaining Mike D’Antoni sideshow with no substance at all.

Eyes On – Raymond Felton. He was a bad fit in Larry Brown’s slow-down grind-it-out offense. He should flourish with some freedom surrounded by shooters and a finisher.

Now or Never – Amar’e Stoudemire. He wanted to be paid like “the man” and now he is to the tune of 5-years $100 million. The question is can he remain a top producer without Steve Nash’s help?

9. Philadelphia 76ers – The Sixers have some talent but the skill sets of their talented guys don’t mesh with one another, and I’m still not sure they even like playing together. New coach Doug Collins is supposed to fix all that but he has never lasted more than three seasons anywhere and his teams usually peak in year two. Philly could make the playoffs if Collins can get everyone on the same page, but I’m not willing to bet on it.

Eyes On – Jrue Holiday. The only weaknesses I see in his game are basketball IQ & turnovers, and since those are related he could really blow up if he improves in either area.

Now or Never – Thaddeus Young. Since he arrived in the NBA his PER has dropped from 16.54 to 15.40 to 14.08. I would think as he enters restricted free agency he’d like to reverse that trend.

10. Charlotte Bobcats – You always know that a Larry Brown coached team will play tough defense and do their best to ugly up the game. I can’t say that I blame LB this time around since the talent at his disposal is seriously lacking. This group goes as far as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace take them. If one of them gets hurt though things could turn fast since their overall depth, big man and point guard rotations are all suspect.

Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. He really started to come on late last season and was rewarded with a 5-year $40 million contract. He should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself as a sixth man this year.

Now or Never – D.J. Augustin. With Ray Felton gone and the Shaun Livingston/Sherron Collins duo backing him up D.J. should see all the minutes he can handle.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers – In many ways this bunch really fits with new coach Byron Scott’s style. The Cavs feature a lot of good players but none are great. They also have a lot of scrappy defender types. B Scott has a way of getting the most out of these types of guys/teams, which is why I’m a little higher on Cleveland than most. Don’t get me wrong though, even in the East they are no better than a long shot for the playoffs.

Eyes On – Ramon Sessions. After escaping from the purgatory that is Minnesota he should flourish once again in a system that better suits his skills.

Now or Never – J.J. Hickson. This is the guy that former GM Danny Ferry would never part with in big trades. Now without a real #1 scoring option it’s time for J.J. to prove him right.

12. New Jersey Nets – The Nyets have a new owner, GM, coach, arena and return only four players from last season’s debacle. Since they were barely coached at all last season Avery Johnson is a huge upgrade in that department. Their starting five doesn’t look that bad on paper (assuming Troy Murphy’s back injury isn’t serious) but their bench is horrible. If Avery can get them to defend and rebound I think NJ will be much improved.

Eyes On – Terrence Williams. He looked like just another athletic super-freak without a clue until he averaged 14.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists over the final two months of the season.

Now or Never – Travis Outlaw. He signed a 5-year $35 million contract this summer and will finally be the unquestioned starter at his natural position.

13. Detroit Pistons – This is another club that is poorly constructed with duplication of talents at many positions coupled with gaping holes at other spots. It’s quite obvious to me that John Hammond (current Bucks GM) was the brains behind this outfit and not Joe Dumars since you can trace Detroit’s downfall back to when Hammond left in April of ’08. The Pistons will score points but John Kuester doesn’t coach defense as I see it.

Eyes On – Tayshaun Prince. If he proves that his back is 100% healed the combination of his ability and $11 million expiring contract will be very valuable around the league.

Now or Never – Ben Gordon. I know he had a bum left ankle last year, but with 4-years $48 million left on his deal he needs to start producing.

14. Washington Wizards – The Wiz are obviously rebuilding under new ownership and if they can find a taker for Gilbert Arenas they will have a considerable amount of room under the salary cap immediately. That said I’m not sure I’m buying coach Flip Saunders’ plan to go with a three PG/two PF starting lineup. They will undoubtedly be entertaining and get up and down the floor but they won’t stop anybody or rebound.

Eyes On – John Wall. I normally never comment on rookies coming into the Association since I don’t watch any college ball, but this guy is the real deal, and was already named captain by his teammates.

Now or Never – Yi Jianlian. He’s never shown more than flashes, but those flashes have been pretty darn good. He must become consistent if he wants to get paid as a restricted free agent this off season.

15. Toronto Raptors – I’ve always been a fan of GM Bryan Colangelo’s but the job he has done in Canada has been abysmal. He keeps trying to build this Euro-style squad where everyone on the floor can shoot. The problem is that the Raps play in the NBA and not the Euroleague, which means you need some defenders and rebounders. I think both he and coach Jay Triano are on their last legs unless something miraculous happens.

Eyes On – Linas Kleiza. After a year in Europe “The Menace” is back. Look for him to have a breakout season as a scorer with this sorry crew.

Now or Never – Andrea Bargnani. With Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu gone Il Mago becomes the #1 scoring option pretty much by default. While Bargnani’s contract (5-years $50 million left) says he’s ready, his career shooting mark of 43.9% says otherwise.

Final Four – Miami, Chicago, Boston, Orlando

Eastern Finals – Miami, Boston