Western Conference Preview
While I am normally the biggest NBA cheerleader you’ll ever have the misfortune of engaging in a conversation, I can’t stop myself from taking a doom and gloom approach this year. Even with the Association sitting on the precipice of one of the greatest seasons in recent memory, if not all time, I just can’t shake the feeling that the owners and the NBPA (players union) will royally screw it all up come June 30th.
I know common sense says there is no way either side would risk all of this good will and popularity for another work stoppage, but when Commissioner David Stern is trying to get out ahead of the story on October 22nd anything is possible. Among the gems that “Easy Dave” put out there are that the league wants to reduce player’s salaries by one-third ($750-800 million) because of the “diseconimic situation” they find themselves in (league projects to lose $340-350 million this season).
The biggest bomb Stern dropped though was that contraction (reducing the total number of teams in the NBA) is on the table. Executive Director of the NBPA Billy Hunter confirmed that contraction is indeed an option and that the All-Star break is the unofficial deadline to know whether there will be a work stoppage or not (the Commish agrees).
Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail but even if they can avoid a strike/lockout scenario it will undoubtedly get ugly in the press. This is still bad in my opinion since the NBA always seems to be treated more harshly by the media than other leagues when controversies arise.
I wish I could be more optimistic, but being such a close follower of the NBA I know where this going. A prolonged lockout with many games lost and the owners eventually getting 80-90% of what they were asking for in the first place. Then the backlash from the writers will be “If this was going to be the deal, what took the players so long to agree?”
Here’s to hoping I’m wrong, on to business…
1. Los Angeles Lakers – My boys had an underrated summer adding serious upgrades at three backup positions with Matt Barnes (Luke Walton), Steve Blake (Jordan Farmar) and Theo Ratliff (D.J. Mbenga). That said I think you are going to see LA start out very slowly while the right knees of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum heal. And even when they are 100% back I don’t see the Lakers taking the regular season all that seriously.
Eyes On – Ron Artest. He has lost weight & is very fit, clearly understands the triangle better and generally played great in the preseason.
Now or Never – Sasha Vujacic. His best season was his last contract year (’07-08), so here’s to hoping for a repeat performance. Even if he stinks again the guy is engaged to Maria Sharapova.
2. Portland Trail Blazers –I like the Blazers more than most other pundits because they were racked with injuries last season, still won 50 games and were looking poised to make a run in the playoffs until Brandon Roy hurt his right knee. Obviously they need to be healthy to finish this high, but they are still young, deep and talented. Besides injuries the only other thing I see derailing this squad is poor chemistry, which is very possible.
Eyes On – Nicolas Batum. He entered the league as strictly a defender/spot up shooter, but I think the French youngster is ready to display much more of a well rounded game this season.
Now or Never – Dante Cunningham. With Greg Oden (left knee) and Joel Przybilla (right knee) out indefinitely Dante will see tons of minutes at both backup PF and center.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder – This is everyone’s favorite club as the season starts and I can’t say that I disagree. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook look ready to take the next step into super-stardom and this team’s chemistry makes them a joy to watch. I do worry about the quality of their big man depth, but as long as they continue to defend, rebound and play hard they will be very good in the regular season.
Eyes On – Serge Ibaka. This long, athletic, jumping jack from Congo really broke out in the playoffs. His continued development could take OKC to another level.
Now or Never – Jeff Green. I’ve always thought he was more of a first forward off the bench/sixth man type than a starter. GM Sam Presti has a very tough decision on his hands as Green is about to be a restricted free agent.
4. San Antonio Spurs – This might be a little too high for this aging crew, but Tony Parker missed 26 games last season and this is his contract year, so I expect a bounce-back campaign from TP. I also like that coach Gregg Popovich is starting Manu Ginobili, moving Tim Duncan to center and starting DeJuan Blair at PF. A more balanced starting unit combined with some youth off the bench will serve them well.
Eyes On – Tiago Splitter. Assuming the rookie big man from Brazil gets over his right calf injury he could make a huge difference in SA.
Now or Never – Richard Jefferson. I guess a career low PER of 13.18 and shooting 31.6% from three earns you four-years $38.8 million. RJ needs to do something to show he’s still worth that kind of coin.
5. Dallas Mavericks – Even though the Mavs are very deep and versatile once again I’m a little more down on their prospects than most experts are. The reason being I’m not sure their defense will be up to snuff with the age of some of their main players. Jason Kidd is 37, Jason Terry 33 and Dirk Nowitzki & Shawn Marion are 32. That said Dallas has a knack for winning close games and enough depth to still be dangerous.
Eyes On – Roddy Beaubois. There’s talk of him starting at SG once his broken left foot heals. I think this would be a great idea since Big D desperately needs his athleticism.
Now or Never – Caron Butler & Tyson Chandler. Both guys enter their contract years coming off their second worst PER’s ever (13.77 & 12.58 respectively).
6. Houston Rockets – If Yao Ming wasn’t going to be limited to 24 minutes a night while recovering from left foot surgery I’d have this bunch much, much higher. They are two, and almost three, deep at every position and possess great chemistry. What worries me is their shaky team defense and lack of a prime time go-to-guy. Regardless, it would not surprise me to see the Rockets finish as high as second if everything goes right for them.
Eyes On – Luis Scola. The tear he’s been on since Carl Landry was traded (2/20/10) continued right through the World Championships and I don’t see it stopping now.
Now or Never – Kevin Martin. He’s the second highest paid player on a team with a genuine need for a go-to scorer in the clutch.
7. Utah Jazz – I’m not totally sold on the Jazz because their depth is suspect at every position but most glaringly with their bigs. Since Memo Okur is out indefinitely (left Achilles’) they are left with Kyrylo Fesenko and Francisco Elson as front court backups. I also think their defense and 3-point shooting will take a step backwards this season. But any team with Deron Williams that is coached by Jerry Sloan is making the playoffs.
Eyes On – Al Jefferson. He’s never been in a winning situation, had a good coach or a decent PG. Now he has all three and is still only 25 years old.
Now or Never – Andrei Kirilenko. He’s the sixth highest paid player in the NBA at $17.8 million entering his contract year. Obviously he’ll never see that type of money again, but he could still prove himself to be an effective player if he wants to.
8. Los Angeles Clippers – I know I said “never again” after picking them to make the playoffs last year, but I just like the makeup of this group on paper too much. There are worries though; like PG depth, 3-point shooting and coach Vinny Del Negro’s temper. But their front court is very deep, they should be much improved on the boards and VDN is a solid defensive coach. That said I’ll probably regret this pick in a week.
Eyes On – Blake Griffin. This makes the third rookie I’ve mentioned in my previews, but trust me; this kid is going to be a stud.
Now or Never – Baron Davis. If he is mentally engaged, running the offense like a top flight PG should and playing smart (i.e. no stupid 3’s) the Clips will surprise.
9. Phoenix Suns – I picked the Suns to finish ninth last year and they burned me. Since I don’t really like their roster on paper picking them this high is strictly out of respect to Steve Nash. Owner Robert Sarver has managed to surround Nash with about seven guys that do roughly the same things. I guess their plan is to play small ball 100% of the time. That should be entertaining to watch, but I don’t see it being enough in the West.
Eyes On – Robin Lopez. When he was named starter last season Phoenix took off. They really need his muscle, rebounding and post defense since he is the only big man that provides them with those things.
Now or Never – Hedo Turkoglu. Coming off his lowest PER (13.33) since his rookie season and still having four-years $44 million left on his contract he must produce immediately.
10. Memphis Grizzlies – The main things this crew has going for them are continuity, rebounding and low post scoring. I question whether they can really maintain the solid chemistry they had last season though. With three starters bucking for new contracts (the two below and Marc Gasol) it remains to be seen how those guys will react to Rudy Gay being completely overpaid (five-years $81 million) while ownership stonewalls them.
Eyes On – Zach Randolph. I have a hard time believing Z-Bo is going to duplicate his performance from a year ago, both on and off the court.
Now or Never – Mike Conley. He’ll be a restricted free agent after the season and hasn’t really ever shown much to begin with.
11. New Orleans Hornets – You know that it pains me greatly to have a Chris Paul led team this low. If the sale of the franchise from the notorious cheapskate George Shinn to the deep-pocketed Gary Chouest had taken place things might be different. But now not only is the franchise in limbo, but so is the best player’s (CP3) desire to be there. I’m not even mentioning their comical lack of depth, questionable defense or poor rebounding.
Eyes On – Peja Stojakovic. I’m interested to see how hard he tries now that he’s a bench player with an expiring contract.
Now or Never – Marco Belinelli. He can’t ask for more than being handed the starting SG job as he’s about to enter restricted free agency.
12. Denver Nuggets – You can’t talk about the Nugs without mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Carmelo Anthony’s eventual trade. Then factor in that Kenyon Martin (left knee), Chris Andersen (right knee) and Al Harrington (left foot) all won’t be 100% to start the season and I don’t envy coach George Karl. If Anthony is not traded this pick will look silly when Denver makes the playoffs, but from what I hear it’s when, not if.
Eyes On – Vice President Masai Ujiri. What he receives in return for Melo will define his legacy as a personnel man.
Now or Never – J.R. Smith. If he is more than an athletic head case that can shoot 3’s his contract year would be a good time to show it.
13. Sacramento Kings – They have the lowest payroll in the NBA and the Commissioner just said “My optimism on there being a new building [in Sacramento] has faded completely.” (Contraction anyone?) There is some hope for the Kings as they have two promising young building blocks in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. I just don’t think they have enough at the SG/SF positions to consistently score enough points to win.
Eyes On – Omri Casspi. The young Israeli has a nice touch from deep, always plays hard and isn’t afraid to mix it up with anyone. Should excel as a sixth man.
Now or Never – Samuel Dalembert. He has no more excuses not to produce coming off a career high PER (16.84) as he enters his contract year.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves – You really have to wonder what President David Kahn’s plan is here? His moves tend to have no rhyme or reason and leave absolutely no hint of what the long term direction of the franchise is. He did however improve his club’s overall depth from putrid to mediocre, so I guess that’s something. I’m going out on a limb and predicting the Wolves won’t be the worst team in the league.
Eyes On – Kevin Love. With the departure of Al Jefferson Love is the only legitimate PF on the roster. He should blossom as the unquestioned best player on the team now.
Now or Never – Corey Brewer. Even though he has improved ever so slightly over the course of his three seasons he’ll have to make an enormous jump in productivity to earn even a mid-level contract as a restricted free agent.
15. Golden State Warriors – The good news is that owner Chris Cohan finally sold the team and that the new owners fired coach Don Nelson. The bad news is that this group is still built to play Nellie-ball and will be coached by a Nellie disciple in Keith Smart. I just don’t see this bunch playing any type of defense at all but their rebounding should be slightly improved. They will definitely score points and be entertaining to watch though.
Eyes On – Dorell Wright. He’s been in the Association for six years and is still only 24. He should earn oodles of minutes as the sole defensive stopper on a squad in clear need of one.
Now or Never – David Lee. After signing a six-year $80 million contract he has to prove he is more than an energy/rebounding guy whose stats were inflated by the Knicks’ system.
Final Four – Lakers, San Antonio, Houston, Portland
Western Finals – Lakers, Portland
NBA Finals – Boston, Lakers
NBA Champion – Lakers
I know common sense says there is no way either side would risk all of this good will and popularity for another work stoppage, but when Commissioner David Stern is trying to get out ahead of the story on October 22nd anything is possible. Among the gems that “Easy Dave” put out there are that the league wants to reduce player’s salaries by one-third ($750-800 million) because of the “diseconimic situation” they find themselves in (league projects to lose $340-350 million this season).
The biggest bomb Stern dropped though was that contraction (reducing the total number of teams in the NBA) is on the table. Executive Director of the NBPA Billy Hunter confirmed that contraction is indeed an option and that the All-Star break is the unofficial deadline to know whether there will be a work stoppage or not (the Commish agrees).
Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail but even if they can avoid a strike/lockout scenario it will undoubtedly get ugly in the press. This is still bad in my opinion since the NBA always seems to be treated more harshly by the media than other leagues when controversies arise.
I wish I could be more optimistic, but being such a close follower of the NBA I know where this going. A prolonged lockout with many games lost and the owners eventually getting 80-90% of what they were asking for in the first place. Then the backlash from the writers will be “If this was going to be the deal, what took the players so long to agree?”
Here’s to hoping I’m wrong, on to business…
1. Los Angeles Lakers – My boys had an underrated summer adding serious upgrades at three backup positions with Matt Barnes (Luke Walton), Steve Blake (Jordan Farmar) and Theo Ratliff (D.J. Mbenga). That said I think you are going to see LA start out very slowly while the right knees of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum heal. And even when they are 100% back I don’t see the Lakers taking the regular season all that seriously.
Eyes On – Ron Artest. He has lost weight & is very fit, clearly understands the triangle better and generally played great in the preseason.
Now or Never – Sasha Vujacic. His best season was his last contract year (’07-08), so here’s to hoping for a repeat performance. Even if he stinks again the guy is engaged to Maria Sharapova.
2. Portland Trail Blazers –I like the Blazers more than most other pundits because they were racked with injuries last season, still won 50 games and were looking poised to make a run in the playoffs until Brandon Roy hurt his right knee. Obviously they need to be healthy to finish this high, but they are still young, deep and talented. Besides injuries the only other thing I see derailing this squad is poor chemistry, which is very possible.
Eyes On – Nicolas Batum. He entered the league as strictly a defender/spot up shooter, but I think the French youngster is ready to display much more of a well rounded game this season.
Now or Never – Dante Cunningham. With Greg Oden (left knee) and Joel Przybilla (right knee) out indefinitely Dante will see tons of minutes at both backup PF and center.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder – This is everyone’s favorite club as the season starts and I can’t say that I disagree. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook look ready to take the next step into super-stardom and this team’s chemistry makes them a joy to watch. I do worry about the quality of their big man depth, but as long as they continue to defend, rebound and play hard they will be very good in the regular season.
Eyes On – Serge Ibaka. This long, athletic, jumping jack from Congo really broke out in the playoffs. His continued development could take OKC to another level.
Now or Never – Jeff Green. I’ve always thought he was more of a first forward off the bench/sixth man type than a starter. GM Sam Presti has a very tough decision on his hands as Green is about to be a restricted free agent.
4. San Antonio Spurs – This might be a little too high for this aging crew, but Tony Parker missed 26 games last season and this is his contract year, so I expect a bounce-back campaign from TP. I also like that coach Gregg Popovich is starting Manu Ginobili, moving Tim Duncan to center and starting DeJuan Blair at PF. A more balanced starting unit combined with some youth off the bench will serve them well.
Eyes On – Tiago Splitter. Assuming the rookie big man from Brazil gets over his right calf injury he could make a huge difference in SA.
Now or Never – Richard Jefferson. I guess a career low PER of 13.18 and shooting 31.6% from three earns you four-years $38.8 million. RJ needs to do something to show he’s still worth that kind of coin.
5. Dallas Mavericks – Even though the Mavs are very deep and versatile once again I’m a little more down on their prospects than most experts are. The reason being I’m not sure their defense will be up to snuff with the age of some of their main players. Jason Kidd is 37, Jason Terry 33 and Dirk Nowitzki & Shawn Marion are 32. That said Dallas has a knack for winning close games and enough depth to still be dangerous.
Eyes On – Roddy Beaubois. There’s talk of him starting at SG once his broken left foot heals. I think this would be a great idea since Big D desperately needs his athleticism.
Now or Never – Caron Butler & Tyson Chandler. Both guys enter their contract years coming off their second worst PER’s ever (13.77 & 12.58 respectively).
6. Houston Rockets – If Yao Ming wasn’t going to be limited to 24 minutes a night while recovering from left foot surgery I’d have this bunch much, much higher. They are two, and almost three, deep at every position and possess great chemistry. What worries me is their shaky team defense and lack of a prime time go-to-guy. Regardless, it would not surprise me to see the Rockets finish as high as second if everything goes right for them.
Eyes On – Luis Scola. The tear he’s been on since Carl Landry was traded (2/20/10) continued right through the World Championships and I don’t see it stopping now.
Now or Never – Kevin Martin. He’s the second highest paid player on a team with a genuine need for a go-to scorer in the clutch.
7. Utah Jazz – I’m not totally sold on the Jazz because their depth is suspect at every position but most glaringly with their bigs. Since Memo Okur is out indefinitely (left Achilles’) they are left with Kyrylo Fesenko and Francisco Elson as front court backups. I also think their defense and 3-point shooting will take a step backwards this season. But any team with Deron Williams that is coached by Jerry Sloan is making the playoffs.
Eyes On – Al Jefferson. He’s never been in a winning situation, had a good coach or a decent PG. Now he has all three and is still only 25 years old.
Now or Never – Andrei Kirilenko. He’s the sixth highest paid player in the NBA at $17.8 million entering his contract year. Obviously he’ll never see that type of money again, but he could still prove himself to be an effective player if he wants to.
8. Los Angeles Clippers – I know I said “never again” after picking them to make the playoffs last year, but I just like the makeup of this group on paper too much. There are worries though; like PG depth, 3-point shooting and coach Vinny Del Negro’s temper. But their front court is very deep, they should be much improved on the boards and VDN is a solid defensive coach. That said I’ll probably regret this pick in a week.
Eyes On – Blake Griffin. This makes the third rookie I’ve mentioned in my previews, but trust me; this kid is going to be a stud.
Now or Never – Baron Davis. If he is mentally engaged, running the offense like a top flight PG should and playing smart (i.e. no stupid 3’s) the Clips will surprise.
9. Phoenix Suns – I picked the Suns to finish ninth last year and they burned me. Since I don’t really like their roster on paper picking them this high is strictly out of respect to Steve Nash. Owner Robert Sarver has managed to surround Nash with about seven guys that do roughly the same things. I guess their plan is to play small ball 100% of the time. That should be entertaining to watch, but I don’t see it being enough in the West.
Eyes On – Robin Lopez. When he was named starter last season Phoenix took off. They really need his muscle, rebounding and post defense since he is the only big man that provides them with those things.
Now or Never – Hedo Turkoglu. Coming off his lowest PER (13.33) since his rookie season and still having four-years $44 million left on his contract he must produce immediately.
10. Memphis Grizzlies – The main things this crew has going for them are continuity, rebounding and low post scoring. I question whether they can really maintain the solid chemistry they had last season though. With three starters bucking for new contracts (the two below and Marc Gasol) it remains to be seen how those guys will react to Rudy Gay being completely overpaid (five-years $81 million) while ownership stonewalls them.
Eyes On – Zach Randolph. I have a hard time believing Z-Bo is going to duplicate his performance from a year ago, both on and off the court.
Now or Never – Mike Conley. He’ll be a restricted free agent after the season and hasn’t really ever shown much to begin with.
11. New Orleans Hornets – You know that it pains me greatly to have a Chris Paul led team this low. If the sale of the franchise from the notorious cheapskate George Shinn to the deep-pocketed Gary Chouest had taken place things might be different. But now not only is the franchise in limbo, but so is the best player’s (CP3) desire to be there. I’m not even mentioning their comical lack of depth, questionable defense or poor rebounding.
Eyes On – Peja Stojakovic. I’m interested to see how hard he tries now that he’s a bench player with an expiring contract.
Now or Never – Marco Belinelli. He can’t ask for more than being handed the starting SG job as he’s about to enter restricted free agency.
12. Denver Nuggets – You can’t talk about the Nugs without mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Carmelo Anthony’s eventual trade. Then factor in that Kenyon Martin (left knee), Chris Andersen (right knee) and Al Harrington (left foot) all won’t be 100% to start the season and I don’t envy coach George Karl. If Anthony is not traded this pick will look silly when Denver makes the playoffs, but from what I hear it’s when, not if.
Eyes On – Vice President Masai Ujiri. What he receives in return for Melo will define his legacy as a personnel man.
Now or Never – J.R. Smith. If he is more than an athletic head case that can shoot 3’s his contract year would be a good time to show it.
13. Sacramento Kings – They have the lowest payroll in the NBA and the Commissioner just said “My optimism on there being a new building [in Sacramento] has faded completely.” (Contraction anyone?) There is some hope for the Kings as they have two promising young building blocks in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. I just don’t think they have enough at the SG/SF positions to consistently score enough points to win.
Eyes On – Omri Casspi. The young Israeli has a nice touch from deep, always plays hard and isn’t afraid to mix it up with anyone. Should excel as a sixth man.
Now or Never – Samuel Dalembert. He has no more excuses not to produce coming off a career high PER (16.84) as he enters his contract year.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves – You really have to wonder what President David Kahn’s plan is here? His moves tend to have no rhyme or reason and leave absolutely no hint of what the long term direction of the franchise is. He did however improve his club’s overall depth from putrid to mediocre, so I guess that’s something. I’m going out on a limb and predicting the Wolves won’t be the worst team in the league.
Eyes On – Kevin Love. With the departure of Al Jefferson Love is the only legitimate PF on the roster. He should blossom as the unquestioned best player on the team now.
Now or Never – Corey Brewer. Even though he has improved ever so slightly over the course of his three seasons he’ll have to make an enormous jump in productivity to earn even a mid-level contract as a restricted free agent.
15. Golden State Warriors – The good news is that owner Chris Cohan finally sold the team and that the new owners fired coach Don Nelson. The bad news is that this group is still built to play Nellie-ball and will be coached by a Nellie disciple in Keith Smart. I just don’t see this bunch playing any type of defense at all but their rebounding should be slightly improved. They will definitely score points and be entertaining to watch though.
Eyes On – Dorell Wright. He’s been in the Association for six years and is still only 24. He should earn oodles of minutes as the sole defensive stopper on a squad in clear need of one.
Now or Never – David Lee. After signing a six-year $80 million contract he has to prove he is more than an energy/rebounding guy whose stats were inflated by the Knicks’ system.
Final Four – Lakers, San Antonio, Houston, Portland
Western Finals – Lakers, Portland
NBA Finals – Boston, Lakers
NBA Champion – Lakers
posted by D$ at 3:31 PM
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