Eastern Conference Preview
I usually save my bragging about my past successes in predicting the NBA for my West preview, but this year I have another topic to tackle there. So the rundown goes like this…
In three of the past four seasons I have picked the eventual champion in October.
In five of the past six seasons I have picked at least one of the Finals teams in October.
Last year I had three of the final four teams, both Finals teams and the champ in October.
With that out of the way, on to business…
1. Miami Heat – Over the course of the year this team will just have too much talent for the opposition on most nights. Coach Erik Spoelstra has to use the regular season to develop a reliable ball movment offense because come playoff time a bunch of fast breaks mixed with some half court isolations won’t cut it. Whether or not these guys can consistently defend at a high enough level is probably the biggest question they face.
Eyes On – President Pat Riley. If things are going bad, or even if they aren’t, will Riles be able to resist the urge to stab yet another protégé in the back and return to coaching?
Now or Never – Joel Anthony. After singing a 5-year $18 million contract this career 2.6 scorer and 3.2 rebounder per game will start at center. He better be able to defend for that much coin.
2. Orlando Magic – Not much changed in the Magic Kingdom over the off season except newcomers Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. While Duhon is an upgrade over Jason Williams I’m not so sure Q-Rich is over Matt Barnes. This bunch is still very deep, will play excellent defense and use their post up game to create open 3-pointers for their plethora of shooters. That’s a very tough formula to beat in the regular season.
Eyes On – Dwight Howard. He worked with Hakeem Olajuwon in the summer on low post/counter moves and has vowed to be “more serious” and “more of a leader” this season.
Now or Never – Vince Carter. This is a virtual contract year for him since his $18 million for next season is a team option. If he ever wants to see money like that again he’ll have to do better than a 17.11 PER.
3. Boston Celtics – I really like what GM Danny Ainge did in addressing the C’s weaknesses this summer by shoring up their backup PG position and increasing their big man depth. That said I do have concerns about Lawrence Frank replacing defensive guru Tom Thibodeau as lead assistant. As long as coach Doc Rivers can keep everyone relatively fresh/healthy for the playoffs I think it’s very premature to write this group off.
Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. He says he’s excited to play alongside four future Hall of Famers, but will he really put aside his ego in the prime of his career?
Now or Never – Delonte West. He signed a 1-year deal for the veteran’s minimum on a team that needs exactly what he does off the bench. Can he stay out of trouble though?
4. Chicago Bulls – It’s going to take some time for them to gel with a new coach, a whopping TEN new players and they won’t have Carlos Boozer (right hand) until sometime in December. When healthy and used to each other these guys should play great defense & rebound, have a true low post scoring option and improve their 3-point shooting. I really like the makeup of this team and think they can be very dangerous in the playoffs.
Eyes On – Coach Tom Thibodeau. While his defensive acumen can never be questioned there have been many whispers about Thib not relating to players or understanding rotations.
Now or Never – Luol Deng. With 4-years $51 million left on his contract it’s hard to believe his best PER is 18.79 (’06-07). If he can’t produce as a third option on this squad he never will.
5. Milwaukee Bucks – How far the Deer go this season depends largely on how well Andrew Bogut’s right hand, wrist and elbow have healed. If he returns to anywhere near 20.81 PER form the Bucks will be very tough. Even without Bogut they are very deep, have more than enough scoring and should be improved on the boards as well. With Scott Skiles as coach you know they will always play hard and work on defense.
Eyes On – Brandon Jennings. After a rookie season where he proved everyone wrong will he be able to keep all of the egos on this club happy and still “get his?”
Now or Never – John Salmons & Corey Maggette. This is the best chance either of these two me-first gunners has had to win. Can they play team ball for once in their careers? Do they even know how?
6. Atlanta Hawks – Other than switching coaches not much has changed in the A.T.L., unless you are expecting a big year from Josh Powell at backup PF. They will have the same starting five and same second five (with the exception of Powell) as last season. It would not surprise me at all if they missed the playoffs, but with the East being so awful behind them they are probably safe for one more year.
Eyes On – Coach Larry Drew. A rookie coach, a combustible mix of players and high expectations…what could possibly go wrong?
Now or Never – Joe Johnson. Since he got paid like a franchise player this off season (6-years $123 million) it’s time for him to play like one or take the criticism like a man if he doesn’t.
7. Indiana Pacers – I think a healthy Pacer club has a little bit more on both offense and defense to separate them from the pack below. Even if they don’t make the playoffs Indiana will have massive salary cap room next summer and both President Larry Bird & coach Jim O’Brien are in the final years of their contracts. So if this bunch turns out to be a mess (again) ownership can start completely from scratch.
Eyes On – Darren Collison. After an All-Rookie First Team season he gets to be the unquestioned starter and run his own team in a system tailor made for him.
Now or Never – Mike Dunleavy Jr. He enters his contract year coming off two seasons in which a troublesome right knee limited him to 85 games combined.
8. New York Knicks – Make no mistake, this squad’s ceiling is that of a regular season team that gets by on being unconventional and difficult to prepare for on short notice. They still won’t play any defense or rebound, but they should be able to outscore the dregs below them pretty regularly. Then again, they could easily be just another entertaining Mike D’Antoni sideshow with no substance at all.
Eyes On – Raymond Felton. He was a bad fit in Larry Brown’s slow-down grind-it-out offense. He should flourish with some freedom surrounded by shooters and a finisher.
Now or Never – Amar’e Stoudemire. He wanted to be paid like “the man” and now he is to the tune of 5-years $100 million. The question is can he remain a top producer without Steve Nash’s help?
9. Philadelphia 76ers – The Sixers have some talent but the skill sets of their talented guys don’t mesh with one another, and I’m still not sure they even like playing together. New coach Doug Collins is supposed to fix all that but he has never lasted more than three seasons anywhere and his teams usually peak in year two. Philly could make the playoffs if Collins can get everyone on the same page, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
Eyes On – Jrue Holiday. The only weaknesses I see in his game are basketball IQ & turnovers, and since those are related he could really blow up if he improves in either area.
Now or Never – Thaddeus Young. Since he arrived in the NBA his PER has dropped from 16.54 to 15.40 to 14.08. I would think as he enters restricted free agency he’d like to reverse that trend.
10. Charlotte Bobcats – You always know that a Larry Brown coached team will play tough defense and do their best to ugly up the game. I can’t say that I blame LB this time around since the talent at his disposal is seriously lacking. This group goes as far as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace take them. If one of them gets hurt though things could turn fast since their overall depth, big man and point guard rotations are all suspect.
Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. He really started to come on late last season and was rewarded with a 5-year $40 million contract. He should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself as a sixth man this year.
Now or Never – D.J. Augustin. With Ray Felton gone and the Shaun Livingston/Sherron Collins duo backing him up D.J. should see all the minutes he can handle.
11. Cleveland Cavaliers – In many ways this bunch really fits with new coach Byron Scott’s style. The Cavs feature a lot of good players but none are great. They also have a lot of scrappy defender types. B Scott has a way of getting the most out of these types of guys/teams, which is why I’m a little higher on Cleveland than most. Don’t get me wrong though, even in the East they are no better than a long shot for the playoffs.
Eyes On – Ramon Sessions. After escaping from the purgatory that is Minnesota he should flourish once again in a system that better suits his skills.
Now or Never – J.J. Hickson. This is the guy that former GM Danny Ferry would never part with in big trades. Now without a real #1 scoring option it’s time for J.J. to prove him right.
12. New Jersey Nets – The Nyets have a new owner, GM, coach, arena and return only four players from last season’s debacle. Since they were barely coached at all last season Avery Johnson is a huge upgrade in that department. Their starting five doesn’t look that bad on paper (assuming Troy Murphy’s back injury isn’t serious) but their bench is horrible. If Avery can get them to defend and rebound I think NJ will be much improved.
Eyes On – Terrence Williams. He looked like just another athletic super-freak without a clue until he averaged 14.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists over the final two months of the season.
Now or Never – Travis Outlaw. He signed a 5-year $35 million contract this summer and will finally be the unquestioned starter at his natural position.
13. Detroit Pistons – This is another club that is poorly constructed with duplication of talents at many positions coupled with gaping holes at other spots. It’s quite obvious to me that John Hammond (current Bucks GM) was the brains behind this outfit and not Joe Dumars since you can trace Detroit’s downfall back to when Hammond left in April of ’08. The Pistons will score points but John Kuester doesn’t coach defense as I see it.
Eyes On – Tayshaun Prince. If he proves that his back is 100% healed the combination of his ability and $11 million expiring contract will be very valuable around the league.
Now or Never – Ben Gordon. I know he had a bum left ankle last year, but with 4-years $48 million left on his deal he needs to start producing.
14. Washington Wizards – The Wiz are obviously rebuilding under new ownership and if they can find a taker for Gilbert Arenas they will have a considerable amount of room under the salary cap immediately. That said I’m not sure I’m buying coach Flip Saunders’ plan to go with a three PG/two PF starting lineup. They will undoubtedly be entertaining and get up and down the floor but they won’t stop anybody or rebound.
Eyes On – John Wall. I normally never comment on rookies coming into the Association since I don’t watch any college ball, but this guy is the real deal, and was already named captain by his teammates.
Now or Never – Yi Jianlian. He’s never shown more than flashes, but those flashes have been pretty darn good. He must become consistent if he wants to get paid as a restricted free agent this off season.
15. Toronto Raptors – I’ve always been a fan of GM Bryan Colangelo’s but the job he has done in Canada has been abysmal. He keeps trying to build this Euro-style squad where everyone on the floor can shoot. The problem is that the Raps play in the NBA and not the Euroleague, which means you need some defenders and rebounders. I think both he and coach Jay Triano are on their last legs unless something miraculous happens.
Eyes On – Linas Kleiza. After a year in Europe “The Menace” is back. Look for him to have a breakout season as a scorer with this sorry crew.
Now or Never – Andrea Bargnani. With Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu gone Il Mago becomes the #1 scoring option pretty much by default. While Bargnani’s contract (5-years $50 million left) says he’s ready, his career shooting mark of 43.9% says otherwise.
Final Four – Miami, Chicago, Boston, Orlando
Eastern Finals – Miami, Boston
In three of the past four seasons I have picked the eventual champion in October.
In five of the past six seasons I have picked at least one of the Finals teams in October.
Last year I had three of the final four teams, both Finals teams and the champ in October.
With that out of the way, on to business…
1. Miami Heat – Over the course of the year this team will just have too much talent for the opposition on most nights. Coach Erik Spoelstra has to use the regular season to develop a reliable ball movment offense because come playoff time a bunch of fast breaks mixed with some half court isolations won’t cut it. Whether or not these guys can consistently defend at a high enough level is probably the biggest question they face.
Eyes On – President Pat Riley. If things are going bad, or even if they aren’t, will Riles be able to resist the urge to stab yet another protégé in the back and return to coaching?
Now or Never – Joel Anthony. After singing a 5-year $18 million contract this career 2.6 scorer and 3.2 rebounder per game will start at center. He better be able to defend for that much coin.
2. Orlando Magic – Not much changed in the Magic Kingdom over the off season except newcomers Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. While Duhon is an upgrade over Jason Williams I’m not so sure Q-Rich is over Matt Barnes. This bunch is still very deep, will play excellent defense and use their post up game to create open 3-pointers for their plethora of shooters. That’s a very tough formula to beat in the regular season.
Eyes On – Dwight Howard. He worked with Hakeem Olajuwon in the summer on low post/counter moves and has vowed to be “more serious” and “more of a leader” this season.
Now or Never – Vince Carter. This is a virtual contract year for him since his $18 million for next season is a team option. If he ever wants to see money like that again he’ll have to do better than a 17.11 PER.
3. Boston Celtics – I really like what GM Danny Ainge did in addressing the C’s weaknesses this summer by shoring up their backup PG position and increasing their big man depth. That said I do have concerns about Lawrence Frank replacing defensive guru Tom Thibodeau as lead assistant. As long as coach Doc Rivers can keep everyone relatively fresh/healthy for the playoffs I think it’s very premature to write this group off.
Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. He says he’s excited to play alongside four future Hall of Famers, but will he really put aside his ego in the prime of his career?
Now or Never – Delonte West. He signed a 1-year deal for the veteran’s minimum on a team that needs exactly what he does off the bench. Can he stay out of trouble though?
4. Chicago Bulls – It’s going to take some time for them to gel with a new coach, a whopping TEN new players and they won’t have Carlos Boozer (right hand) until sometime in December. When healthy and used to each other these guys should play great defense & rebound, have a true low post scoring option and improve their 3-point shooting. I really like the makeup of this team and think they can be very dangerous in the playoffs.
Eyes On – Coach Tom Thibodeau. While his defensive acumen can never be questioned there have been many whispers about Thib not relating to players or understanding rotations.
Now or Never – Luol Deng. With 4-years $51 million left on his contract it’s hard to believe his best PER is 18.79 (’06-07). If he can’t produce as a third option on this squad he never will.
5. Milwaukee Bucks – How far the Deer go this season depends largely on how well Andrew Bogut’s right hand, wrist and elbow have healed. If he returns to anywhere near 20.81 PER form the Bucks will be very tough. Even without Bogut they are very deep, have more than enough scoring and should be improved on the boards as well. With Scott Skiles as coach you know they will always play hard and work on defense.
Eyes On – Brandon Jennings. After a rookie season where he proved everyone wrong will he be able to keep all of the egos on this club happy and still “get his?”
Now or Never – John Salmons & Corey Maggette. This is the best chance either of these two me-first gunners has had to win. Can they play team ball for once in their careers? Do they even know how?
6. Atlanta Hawks – Other than switching coaches not much has changed in the A.T.L., unless you are expecting a big year from Josh Powell at backup PF. They will have the same starting five and same second five (with the exception of Powell) as last season. It would not surprise me at all if they missed the playoffs, but with the East being so awful behind them they are probably safe for one more year.
Eyes On – Coach Larry Drew. A rookie coach, a combustible mix of players and high expectations…what could possibly go wrong?
Now or Never – Joe Johnson. Since he got paid like a franchise player this off season (6-years $123 million) it’s time for him to play like one or take the criticism like a man if he doesn’t.
7. Indiana Pacers – I think a healthy Pacer club has a little bit more on both offense and defense to separate them from the pack below. Even if they don’t make the playoffs Indiana will have massive salary cap room next summer and both President Larry Bird & coach Jim O’Brien are in the final years of their contracts. So if this bunch turns out to be a mess (again) ownership can start completely from scratch.
Eyes On – Darren Collison. After an All-Rookie First Team season he gets to be the unquestioned starter and run his own team in a system tailor made for him.
Now or Never – Mike Dunleavy Jr. He enters his contract year coming off two seasons in which a troublesome right knee limited him to 85 games combined.
8. New York Knicks – Make no mistake, this squad’s ceiling is that of a regular season team that gets by on being unconventional and difficult to prepare for on short notice. They still won’t play any defense or rebound, but they should be able to outscore the dregs below them pretty regularly. Then again, they could easily be just another entertaining Mike D’Antoni sideshow with no substance at all.
Eyes On – Raymond Felton. He was a bad fit in Larry Brown’s slow-down grind-it-out offense. He should flourish with some freedom surrounded by shooters and a finisher.
Now or Never – Amar’e Stoudemire. He wanted to be paid like “the man” and now he is to the tune of 5-years $100 million. The question is can he remain a top producer without Steve Nash’s help?
9. Philadelphia 76ers – The Sixers have some talent but the skill sets of their talented guys don’t mesh with one another, and I’m still not sure they even like playing together. New coach Doug Collins is supposed to fix all that but he has never lasted more than three seasons anywhere and his teams usually peak in year two. Philly could make the playoffs if Collins can get everyone on the same page, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
Eyes On – Jrue Holiday. The only weaknesses I see in his game are basketball IQ & turnovers, and since those are related he could really blow up if he improves in either area.
Now or Never – Thaddeus Young. Since he arrived in the NBA his PER has dropped from 16.54 to 15.40 to 14.08. I would think as he enters restricted free agency he’d like to reverse that trend.
10. Charlotte Bobcats – You always know that a Larry Brown coached team will play tough defense and do their best to ugly up the game. I can’t say that I blame LB this time around since the talent at his disposal is seriously lacking. This group goes as far as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace take them. If one of them gets hurt though things could turn fast since their overall depth, big man and point guard rotations are all suspect.
Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. He really started to come on late last season and was rewarded with a 5-year $40 million contract. He should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself as a sixth man this year.
Now or Never – D.J. Augustin. With Ray Felton gone and the Shaun Livingston/Sherron Collins duo backing him up D.J. should see all the minutes he can handle.
11. Cleveland Cavaliers – In many ways this bunch really fits with new coach Byron Scott’s style. The Cavs feature a lot of good players but none are great. They also have a lot of scrappy defender types. B Scott has a way of getting the most out of these types of guys/teams, which is why I’m a little higher on Cleveland than most. Don’t get me wrong though, even in the East they are no better than a long shot for the playoffs.
Eyes On – Ramon Sessions. After escaping from the purgatory that is Minnesota he should flourish once again in a system that better suits his skills.
Now or Never – J.J. Hickson. This is the guy that former GM Danny Ferry would never part with in big trades. Now without a real #1 scoring option it’s time for J.J. to prove him right.
12. New Jersey Nets – The Nyets have a new owner, GM, coach, arena and return only four players from last season’s debacle. Since they were barely coached at all last season Avery Johnson is a huge upgrade in that department. Their starting five doesn’t look that bad on paper (assuming Troy Murphy’s back injury isn’t serious) but their bench is horrible. If Avery can get them to defend and rebound I think NJ will be much improved.
Eyes On – Terrence Williams. He looked like just another athletic super-freak without a clue until he averaged 14.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists over the final two months of the season.
Now or Never – Travis Outlaw. He signed a 5-year $35 million contract this summer and will finally be the unquestioned starter at his natural position.
13. Detroit Pistons – This is another club that is poorly constructed with duplication of talents at many positions coupled with gaping holes at other spots. It’s quite obvious to me that John Hammond (current Bucks GM) was the brains behind this outfit and not Joe Dumars since you can trace Detroit’s downfall back to when Hammond left in April of ’08. The Pistons will score points but John Kuester doesn’t coach defense as I see it.
Eyes On – Tayshaun Prince. If he proves that his back is 100% healed the combination of his ability and $11 million expiring contract will be very valuable around the league.
Now or Never – Ben Gordon. I know he had a bum left ankle last year, but with 4-years $48 million left on his deal he needs to start producing.
14. Washington Wizards – The Wiz are obviously rebuilding under new ownership and if they can find a taker for Gilbert Arenas they will have a considerable amount of room under the salary cap immediately. That said I’m not sure I’m buying coach Flip Saunders’ plan to go with a three PG/two PF starting lineup. They will undoubtedly be entertaining and get up and down the floor but they won’t stop anybody or rebound.
Eyes On – John Wall. I normally never comment on rookies coming into the Association since I don’t watch any college ball, but this guy is the real deal, and was already named captain by his teammates.
Now or Never – Yi Jianlian. He’s never shown more than flashes, but those flashes have been pretty darn good. He must become consistent if he wants to get paid as a restricted free agent this off season.
15. Toronto Raptors – I’ve always been a fan of GM Bryan Colangelo’s but the job he has done in Canada has been abysmal. He keeps trying to build this Euro-style squad where everyone on the floor can shoot. The problem is that the Raps play in the NBA and not the Euroleague, which means you need some defenders and rebounders. I think both he and coach Jay Triano are on their last legs unless something miraculous happens.
Eyes On – Linas Kleiza. After a year in Europe “The Menace” is back. Look for him to have a breakout season as a scorer with this sorry crew.
Now or Never – Andrea Bargnani. With Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu gone Il Mago becomes the #1 scoring option pretty much by default. While Bargnani’s contract (5-years $50 million left) says he’s ready, his career shooting mark of 43.9% says otherwise.
Final Four – Miami, Chicago, Boston, Orlando
Eastern Finals – Miami, Boston
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