Year End Awards

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Joakim Noah (Chicago)

2. Roy Hibbert (Indiana)

3. Andre Iguodala (Golden State)

All-Defense

PG – Andre Iguodala (Golden State)

SG – Jimmy Butler (Chicago)

SF – Paul George (Indiana)

PF – Joakim Noah (Chicago)

C – Roy Hibbert (Indiana)

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Markieff Morris (Phoenix)

2. Taj Gibson (Chicago)

3. Jamal Crawford (Clippers)

Executive of the Year

1. Chris Wallace (Memphis)

2. Ryan McDonough (Phoenix)

3. Donnie Nelson (Dallas)

Coach of the Year

1. Jeff Hornacek (Phoenix)

2. Dwane Casey (Toronto)

3. Steve Clifford (Charlotte)

Rookie of the Year

1. Michael Carter-Williams (Philadelphia)

2. Victor Oladipo (Orlando)

3. Trey Burke (Utah)

All-Rookie

PG – Trey Burke (Utah)

SG – Victor Oladipo (Orlando)

SF – Michael Carter-Williams (Philadelphia)

PF – Tim Hardaway Jr. (New York)

C – Mason Plumlee (Brooklyn)

Most Valuable Player

1. Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

2. LeBron James (Miami)

3. Blake Griffin (Clippers)

4. Stephen Curry (Golden State)

5. Kevin Love (Minnesota)

All-NBA

PG – Stephen Curry (Golden State)

SG – James Harden (Houston)

SF – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

PF – LeBron James (Miami)

C – Joakim Noah (Chicago)

Second Team

PG – Chris Paul (Clippers)

SG – Goran Dragic (Phoenix)

SF – Kevin Love (Minnesota)

PF – Blake Griffin (Clippers)

C – Al Jefferson (Charlotte)

Third Team

PG – Kyle Lowry (Toronto)

SG – Paul George (Indiana)

SF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

PF – LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland)

C – Dwight Howard (Houston)

First Round

EAST

Brooklyn at Toronto – The Nets purposely lost 4 of their final 5 games to drop to #6 and play the Raptors.  I’m not sure why because I can’t find a single meaningful statistic where Brooklyn is better.  That said they do have the experience edge over Toronto in a big way which is what most are pointing to as the difference maker.  I tend to look at it differently because the Raps are younger, more athletic, play superior defense and rebound WAY better.  This might not be the prettiest series to watch but I expect every game to be competitive and possibly chippy.  In the end I’m siding with home court and the better coach.  Toronto in 7.

Atlanta at Indiana – Much has been made about the Pacers limping to the finish line at 10-13.  The Hawks were also one of only two sub-.500 teams to at least split the season series with Indy.  Atlanta’s plan will be to spread the Pacers out with 3-point shooters at every position.  That might be enough for them to steal a game but I see Indy using this series to reestablish their identity and mojo.  Pacers in 5.

Charlotte at Miami – The Bobcats are the better defensive side by any measure you’d like to use and they have Gerald Henderson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to defend Dwyane Wade and LeBron James respectively.  Conversely I don’t see Chris Bosh or Udonis Haslem slowing down Al Jefferson even a little bit.  In fact Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s best option for Big Al is probably Chris “Birdman” Andersen.  I tried to paint an optimistic picture there but the reality is even a half-engaged Miami should cruise.  Heat in 4.

Washington at Chicago – On paper I actually think the Wizards have more talent than the Bulls do especially with Nene Hilario healthy again.  For Washington to be successful John Wall needs to push the ball early and often and get open 3-point looks in transition for Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster.  Chicago is going to want to slow the game down and grind the Wiz to a pulp on both ends.  Even if the Bulls are able to do that they will still have multiple games where they can’t throw a rock in the ocean.  This series fascinates me and is a virtual coin flip in my mind but I’m going with the home court/coach combo again.  Chicago in 7.

WEST

Golden State at Clippers – The big story here is that Andrew Bogut (fractured right rib) is unlikely to play meaning we’ll see a lot of Jermaine O’Neal, Marreese Speights and possibly Hilton Armstrong in his place.  The Warriors are a defense first side so losing their back line anchor doesn’t bode well.  You can look for GS Coach Mark Jackson to go with some small-ball lineups but unfortunately for him Los Angeles can match up with any combination he sends out there.  The Clips are getting healthy at the right time and are no slouches on defense themselves (#1 in opponent 3P%).  This series will feature lots of high flying offense on both ends with a few cheap shots thrown in for good measure but I just don’t see the Dubs having enough without Bogut.  LA in 6.

Memphis at Oklahoma City –It’s kind of shocking just how similar these teams are when you compare their important metrics, and I’m not just saying that because the Grizzlies were my preseason pick to make the Finals.  The Thunder have the horses up front in Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison to deal with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  On the flip side Mike Conley, Courtney Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and possibly even James Johnson are decent options to check Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  This series has a chance to be highly compelling TV but ultimately I think OKC will have too much on the offensive end for Memphis to match consistently.  Thunder in 6.

Dallas at San Antonio – This series features the two best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA so there is potential for some eye-pleasing offense here.  That said I just can’t find anything that the Mavericks do better than the Spurs.  I know I just wrote not to underestimate Big D Coach Rick Carlisle but he’s going up against the master here in SA’s Gregg Popovich.  Spurs in 4.

Portland at Houston – There are interesting individual matchups all over the court in this one starting with Nicolas Batum versus Chandler Parsons as do-it-all SFs.  Then there’s the gritty Wesley Matthews having to deal with foul drawing maven James Harden.  The Trail Blazers have Robin Lopez and possibly Joel Freeland (right knee) to check Dwight Howard but on defense I think Howard will have to cross match and guard LaMarcus Aldridge because Terrence Jones doesn’t stand a chance against the L-Train.  That could cause the Rockets some issues as could Patrick Beverley (right knee) not being 100%.  If Beverley isn’t right Damian Lillard could be the guy who swings the series in PDX’s favor.  Statistically these clubs are pretty darn even across the board so I think this series will feature multiple tight games that are decided in crunch time.  You can also expect to see a ton of 3-pointers from both teams and an all around entertaining brand of basketball.  In the end though I have to go with the best player (Harden) and home court.  Rockets in 7.

Tap Dancing

I was originally a little disappointed in going 12 for 16 on my playoff picks until I looked at the spreadsheet I keep comparing my picks to various NBA experts whose opinions I respect.  (Yes I actually do this, and have for years.)  Well as it turns out they ALL also went 12 for 16 meaning all I needed was 1 more correct to beat the “experts” (as I have a few times in my career).  I’m pretty happy being one of two that had 7 of 8 in the West considering this little fact: If Oklahoma City beats Detroit in the final inter-conference game of the season the West would tie its best winning percentage ever against the East (.733). 

EAST 

I had in… 

6. New York Knicks – When you look at how crappy the East is this team really has no business missing the playoff with the talent they have.  The biggest questions I have about their season are for (soon to be former) Coach Mike Woodson.  #1 why on earth did he wait until 3/3 to start Ray Felton, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler together (his five most talented players)?  #2 what possessed him to start Andrea Bargnani for 39 of the 42 games Bargs was available?  New team President Phil Jackson certainly has his work cut out for him because fixing this mess won’t be easy…or quick. 

7. Detroit Pistons – Let’s see here…President Joe Dumars fired Coach Maurice Cheeks after 50 games and then resigned himself after 81 games.  No one ever thought that Joe D would make the same mistake he did in the summer of 2009 when he blew all of his salary cap money on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.  So when he did it again this past summer with Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings the writing was probably on the wall.  As for me picking them I knew Cheeks wasn’t an NBA-level coach but I figured with this much talent in a weak conference that they had to make the playoffs by default.  If Owner Tom Gores is wise when picking his new GM this team could immediately be middling with a few smart moves. 

8. Cleveland Cavaliers – This is what I get for picking a team coached by Mike Brown.  I was gambling on Kyrie Irving just being too good to let his team miss the playoffs.  Well Kyrie posted the lowest PER of his career in Brown’s give-the-ball-to-my-superstar-while-everyone-else-stands-around-and-watches-him offense.  There’s no shame in not being as good as LeBron James or Kobe Bryant but when you are getting into a scuffle with a teammate during a players only meeting you might not be ready to be a leader.  Dan Gilbert is another owner looking for a new GM but I doubt a good candidate will want the job with Brown under contract for the next four years. 

I had out… 

9. Atlanta Hawks – Yes the Hawks are an under .500 playoff team but there’s no denying the job rookie Coach Mike Budenholzer did with this group.  He didn’t have his best player (Al Horford, torn right pectoral) for 53 games and expected sixth man Lou Williams was a shadow of his former self coming back from ACL surgery (lowest PER since his rookie year).  Let’s put it this way, if you switched Cheeks and Bud the Pistons are in the playoffs with ease.  I came oh so close to having them in the playoffs but Irving’s superstar-ness swayed me.  I won’t make the mistake of underestimating Coach Bud again. 

10. Toronto Raptors – Dwane Casey was a lame duck coach heading into season, so when new GM Masai Ujiri dumped Rudy Gay after 18 games it looked like the tank job was on.  They were 6-12 at the time of the trade and then a funny thing happened…they started winning, and big.  Since the trade they went 42-21 and ended up winning the Atlantic Division rather easily.  Now the question becomes can Masai really let Casey go and bring in his own guy, especially if they win a round in the playoffs? 

14. Charlotte Bobcats – It’s quite obvious that I had the soon to be Hornets once again ranked way too low in my preseason rankings.  I knew next to nothing about rookie Coach Steve Clifford and I had no idea who would score for them outside of Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.  Well they are 23^rd in offensive efficiency so I was right there.  What I whiffed on was how good their D would be under Clifford (6^th in defensive efficiency).  Their salary cap situation is good going forward and Owner Michael Jordan seems to be listening to the voice of GM Rich Cho over long time crony President Rod Higgins.  The future might actually be bright for once in the Queen City. 

WEST 

I had in… 

7. Minnesota Timberwolves – I’ll save you the stat geek stuff about how a team with a +2.78 point differential is expected to win such-and-such amount of games or how they might have the best scoring margin of any non-playoff team in NBA history.  Instead I’m going to point to Amin Elhassan’s piece on Ricky Rubio and his colleague Tom Haberstroh’s write up on Kevin Martin (both are in$ider).  The gist of both articles is the same…the Wolves STUNK to high heaven in crunch time and Rubio and Martin’s combined weaknesses were the culprit.  In super-clutch situations (games within 3 points & under 1 minute to play) Minny was 7-18 and outscored by 49 points in 22 minutes.  That is so unfathomably bad that no amount of Kevin Love could overcome it.  This is a pivotal summer for President Flip Saunders as he’ll likely be in the market for a new coach and have to deal with possibly trading a legitimate superstar in his prime. 

I had out…

11. Dallas Mavericks – When I looked at this roster back in October I thought there was no way they’d play defense, rebound or share the ball on offense.  Well I was partially right since they are 22^nd in defensive efficiency and 24^th in rebound rate.  Where I was wrong was on the other end of the court where they are 6^th in true shooting percentage, tied for 4^th in assist ratio and 3^rd in offensive efficiency.  If you would have told me that Monta Ellis was going to lead them in minutes per game I’d have been looking for Dirk Nowitzki to strangle him at some point in January.  The lesson here is never underestimate what Coach Rick Carlisle can do with a clipboard.  Duly noted and won’t happen again.