Conference Finals

I ended up going 4-0 in the second round missing three series’ by one game and hitting one exactly.  With all the major injuries we’ve had being 10-2 at this point is nothing to sneeze at.  It’s also worth pointing out that I had five of the final eight and two of the final four right in my season preview.  If I’m able to finish out with three more wins I can officially call this season a success from a prediction standpoint.

EAST

Boston at Miami – Looking at their regular season statistics the Celtics have the edge in 3-point defense (Bos 1^st/Mia 25^th), assists (Bos 2^nd/Mia 21^st) and turnovers (Bos 17^th/Mia 23^rd) per game.  The Heat are superior when it comes to rebound differential (Mia 6^th/Bos 28^th) and offensive efficiency (Mia 6^th/Bos 24^th) while playing at a faster pace (Mia 14^th/Bos 22^nd).  They are more or less even in opponent shooting, defensive efficiency, field goal shooting, 3-point shooting, true shooting percentage and fouls per game.

You can’t talk about individual match ups in this series without mentioning injuries.  Ray Allen (right ankle) is clearly not himself and with no Avery Bradley (left shoulder) we may see Rajon Rondo or even Sasha Pavlovic on Dwyane Wade.  Paul Pierce normally does as good a job as anyone on LeBron James but with PP (left knee) at less than 100% it’s going to be a struggle.  Mickael Pietrus is normally a solid defender who could check either James or Wade but Pietrus (right knee) is also slowed so Marquis Daniels may get an opportunity on each as well.  With both Allen and Pierce hobbling around Wade, Bron and Shane Battier shouldn’t have much trouble containing them.  Miami has Ronny Turiaf, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony to rotate on Kevin Garnett and Mario Chalmers is an underrated defender for Rondo.  With D Wade (left knee) somewhat gimpy himself I think his turns on Rajon will limited.

Both of these sides come off tough physical series’ that featured many boring grind-it-out games.  I wish I could say we are in for something different here but we aren’t.  Since neither club has a true inside presence I think we’ll see a lot of jump shots late in the shot clock on both ends of the court.  Boston won the season series 3-1 but looking at both rosters I don’t see anywhere that the Celtics have an advantage in their current depleted state.  Even their bench is worse than the Heat’s, and that’s really saying something.  The only drama in this series will be whether or not Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) returns (I think he will).  I see these games being close throughout with the athleticism of Wade and James carrying Miami over Boston’s crumbling core in crunch time.  Heat in 5.

WEST

Oklahoma City at San Antonio – Comparing their regular season numbers the Spurs have a few offensive stats on their side including assists per game (SA 4^th/OKC 30^th) and 3-point shooting (SA 1^st/OKC 11^th).  Not surprisingly the Thunder have the edge in defensive field goal percentage from the field (OKC 3^rd/SA 17^th) and 3-point range (OKC 9^th/SA 19^th).  In a series that figures to be close it’s also worth noting that the Spurs committed less turnovers (SA 3^rd/OKC 30^th) and fouls (SA 3^rd/OKC 23^rd) per game by a wide margin.  Otherwise these teams are practically equal in rebound differential, field goal shooting, pace factor, true shooting percentage and offensive & defensive efficiency.

When it comes to individual matchups the main event pits second team All-NBA guards Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook against each other in what should be a barn burner of quickness.  Both guys can get to the hole at will and where Parker excels at floaters in the lane Westbrook is deadly on pull up jumpers from mid-range.  Next would be herky-jerky left handed sixth men Manu Ginobili and James Harden.  Manu did not play in any of their three tilts this season (Spurs went 2-1 against the Thunder) so I’m very interested to see these two go at it.  While OKC can throw Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed at Tim Duncan SA doesn’t really have an ideal stopper for Kevin Durant.  The job will fall to first team All-Rookie selection Kawhi Leonard to start games but something tells me we’ll see a lot of the mercurial Stephen Jackson in KD’s face.

The Thunder usually shine in the open court but I think they need be careful with how much they run in this series.  Even though it’s unnatural for them I think OKC actually needs to slow the game down to take advantage of their superior defense.  The Thunder’s discipline in shot selection is going to be sorely tested because the Spurs always turn mistakes into easy points.  OKC’s resolve will also be stretched when SA goes on one of their patented big runs.  The Spurs play a brand of “Euro-ball” where they drive and kick looking for threes in the half court but they also look to fan out to the short corner three on fast breaks.  SA has more quality depth than the Thunder do and the Spurs are absolutely murder when games turn into track meets.  I expect these contests to be free flowing affairs featuring plenty of scoring but SA is just too hot right now having won 18 straight, 32 of their last 35, 24 of their last 27 on the road and 43 of their last 47 when Tony Parker plays.  Spurs in 6.

Tap Dancing & Trade Tally

Since I can’t complain about going 14 for 16 on my playoff picks this season I have to bring up the disparity in conferences once again.  Because of the unbalanced schedule this year no team from the East managed to crack the top 15 in strength of schedule.  That’s right; the 15 toughest schedules this season were from the West and the 15 easiest from the East.

EAST

I had in…

8. Milwaukee Bucks – At this point I’m shocked that Coach Scott Skiles hasn’t been fired yet.  He’s 146-166 in four years, his team clearly quit on him, there were reports that he wanted out after the season AND that he’d like the recently vacated Orlando coaching job.  I like GM John Hammond but tying his wagon to Skiles when both will be lame ducks in 2012-13 is questionable at best.  With Owner Herb Kohl angling for a new arena I think some big changes are coming in Milwaukee, maybe even a new owner.

I had out…

10. Atlanta Hawks – Al Horford (torn left pectoral) missed 55 games, Josh Smith & Marvin Williams both requested trades, Kirk Hinrich regressed terribly (career low 9.28 PER) and they had seven veterans on one-year minimum salary contracts…yet they still somehow made the playoffs.  This explains why I gave Coach Larry Drew a third place vote for Coach of the Year.  Besides Drew’s coaching the other bright spots were the emergence of third-year PG Jeff Teague rookie PF Ivan Johnson.

WEST

I had in…

6. Portland Trail Blazers – This is what I get for picking a team without a GM.  Interim personnel man Chad Buchanan ended up firing Coach Nate McMillan after 43 games (he was 20-23 & 266-269 career in PDX) then dumping the contracts of starters Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace in trades and releasing Greg Oden.  I give kudos to Owner Paul Allen’s shadow government (the Vulcan’s) for making the call to blow things up and start over but I have absolutely no faith in this franchise’s ability to rebuild itself.

I had out…

11. Utah Jazz – You have to give Director Kevin O’Connor credit for the squad he built.  They are chockfull with talented young players on their rookie contracts like Derrick Favors, Enes Kantor, Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks and also have quality veterans like Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Devin Harris.  The best part is they currently have NO ONE under contract after the 2012-13 season.  I was obviously wrong in thinking they were a year away but not many franchises are set up better for the future. 

Final Trade Tally

#1 (Games/PER)

Goran Dragic – 66/18.03 (a career year)

Kevin Martin – 40/16.60 (sulked a lot)

Luis Scola – 66/15.50 (looked tired)

Lamar Odom – 50/9.26 (Per Marc Stein’s sources Odom was on his way to New Jersey for the first round pick the Nets gave to Portland in the Gerald Wallace trade meaning LO would have never played a game on the Bayou.  So New Orleans would have had the 1^st, 6^th and 16^th picks with this trade and with word that Lamar wants to play for the Knicks this coming season maybe he doesn’t implode back home in the New York area.)

New York’s pick – 16^th

#2

Eric Gordon – 9/19.23 (Hurt all season and I still think he gets signed-and-traded to Indiana for Danny Granger this summer.  And if all the Hornets end up with for Chris Paul is Granger, Aminu and the 10^th pick…WOW!)

Chris Kaman – 47/15.42 (Played well but is unlikely to re-sign.)

Al-Farouq Aminu – 66/10.68 (Still not sure he’s an NBA player.)

Minnesota’s pick – 10^th

Second Round

I ended up going 6-2 in the first round and would have gone 7-1 if Memphis knew how to finish in close games.  The Grizzlies also ruined an almost perfect first round for me in terms of games.  I missed San Antonio and Oklahoma City by one game each and hit every other series exactly.  As for my people in Chicago, losing Derrick Rose (ACL left knee) after one game and Joakim Noah (left ankle) after three is nothing to hang your heads about.   The Bulls will be contenders again next season.

EAST

Philadelphia at Boston – Paul Pierce (sprained MCL left knee), Ray Allen (bone spurs right ankle), Avery Bradley (dislocated left shoulder) and Mickael Pietrus (right knee) all being hurt leaves the Celtics without a fully healthy player in their regular wing rotation.  Meanwhile the only 76er known to be slowed is Andre Iguodala (right Achilles).  I give a slight advantage to Boston when it comes to the big man rotations even though Brandon Bass/Kevin Garnett/Greg Stiemsma is pretty much equal to Elton Brand/Spencer Hawes/Lavoy Allen.  That leaves the PG battle between Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday, which I still give to Rondo even though Holiday has stepped it up as of late.  Philly needs to exploit their superior rebounding, depth and health by pushing the tempo whenever possible.  I am expecting that these games will mostly be close low scoring affairs decided by crunch time execution which favors the C’s experience big time.  That said the Sixers have a legitimate shot here if the injuries to Pierce and Allen force them to miss time.  In the playoffs it’s always unwise to pick against the healthier side but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.  Boston in 6.

Indiana at Miami – When looking through the numbers it’s shocking just how evenly matched these squads are, and outside of Leandro Barbosa (left ankle) both clubs are more or less healthy too.  On paper the Pacers two main advantages are the PG tandem of George Hill/Darren Collison and center Roy Hibbert.  The Heat have no one on their roster that can match Roy’s size, and since the rest of the big man rotations are virtually identical, it’s imperative for Hibbert to be aggressive in the paint on both ends of the floor.  Indy also has some long and tough defenders to throw at LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Paul George, Danny Granger and Dahntay Jones.  I think this is going to be another hard fought series featuring low scores, close games and a few shoving matches when tempers flare.  I know LeBron isn’t exactly known as a closer (to be kind) but these Pacers really struggle to manufacture baskets in crunch time.  Indy also has a tendency to go through scoring droughts where they give up huge runs.  I view this series as the de facto Eastern Conference Finals and it’s certainly possible that it goes the distance.  In the end though I see Miami winning three close games and one blow out.  Heat in 5.

WEST

Lakers at Oklahoma City – Anyone who knows me has heard me say multiple times this season that “Los Angeles can’t beat the Thunder in the playoffs.”  The Lakers come in beat up and tired, both mentally and physically, after allowing Denver to push them to seven games.  Now they are facing the most athletic group in the NBA that also features a lightning quick PG in Russell Westbrook, an undersized hustling big man in Nick Collison and a legitimate defender for Kobe Bryant in Thabo Sefolosha.  The formula for LA remains the same; take care of the ball, slow the tempo, pound it inside and play team defense.  Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum must consistently win their individual matchups with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins respectively.  Perkins normally plays Bynum very tough but Kendrick has a mystery right hip injury that could prove to be critical if the series goes long.  Metta World Peace usually does a very nice job on Kevin Durant, and with Matt Barnes (right ankle) not himself it will be up to Kobe to deal with Westbrook for the Lakers to have any chance.  OKC GM Sam Presti literally built his roster to match LA’s strengths and exploit their weaknesses, and that’s exactly what they’ll do.  Thunder in 5.

Clippers at San Antonio – The other club from Los Angeles comes in exhausted after a physically grueling seven-game series with Memphis.  Chris Paul (right hip flexor) is slowed, Blake Griffin (left knee) is obviously not the same player and Caron Butler (fractured left hand) is living up to his nickname “Tuff Juice.”  Meanwhile the Spurs will have had a full seven days off by the time this series tips off.  SA is an astounding 28-3 in their last 31 games and an even more astonishing 22-3 in their last 25 road games.  (Two of the road losses came when they rested their starters too.)  One last scary stat for the Clips; the Spurs were the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season (39.3%) and LA was tied for 27^th in defending the three (36.5%).  I anticipate SA Coach Gregg Popovich has a plan that will take Griffin out of his comfort zones exploiting the holes in his still developing game.  I also don’t see the Spurs giving away 24-point leads with 8 minutes to play or succumbing to Paul’s late game wizardry like the Grizzlies did.  And I’m not even mentioning the extreme coaching mismatch that is Popovich versus Vinny Del Negro.  I expect SA to bring fresh players in waves at the Clips all while raining tons of threes.  Spurs in 5.

Year End Awards

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Tyson Chandler (New York)

2. Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia)

3. Kevin Garnett (Boston)

All-Defense

PG – Tony Allen (Memphis)

SG – Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia)

SF – LeBron James (Miami)

PF – Kevin Garnett (Boston)

C – Tyson Chandler (New York)

Sixth Man of the Year

1. James Harden (Oklahoma City)

2. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia)

3. Al Harrington (Denver)

Executive of the Year

1. Neil Olshey (Clippers)

2. Larry Bird (Indiana)

3. Glen Grunwald (New York)

Coach of the Year

1. Gregg Popovich (San Antonio)

2. Tom Thibodeau (Chicago)

3. Larry Drew (Atlanta)

Rookie of the Year

1. Kyrie Irving (Cleveland)

2. Ricky Rubio (Minnesota)

3. Kenneth Faried (Denver)

All-Rookie

PG – Isaiah Thomas (Sacramento)

SG – Kyrie Irving (Cleveland)

SF – Ricky Rubio (Minnesota)

PF – Kawhi Leonard (San Antonio)

C – Kenneth Faried (Denver)

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James (Miami)

2. Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

3. Chris Paul (Clippers)

4. Kevin Love (Minnesota)

5. Tony Parker (San Antonio)

All-NBA

PG – Chris Paul (Clippers)

SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)

SF – LeBron James (Miami)

PF – Kevin Love (Minnesota)

C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Second Team

PG – Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)

SG – Dwyane Wade (Miami)

SF – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

PF – Blake Griffin (Clippers)

C – Andrew Bynum (Lakers)

Third Team

PG – Tony Parker (San Antonio)

SG – James Harden (Oklahoma City)

SF – Paul Pierce (Boston)

PF – Pau Gasol (Lakers)

C – Al Jefferson (Utah)