Finals So Far

> First things first, the non-call on LeBron James against Kevin Durant with nine seconds left and Oklahoma City down two did not decide the game. The Thunder lost this game because they fell behind by double-digits early for the third straight home game and it finally bit them.

> In Game 2 Miami was able to shore up three statistical categories that killed them in Game 1. The Heat out rebounded OKC 40-36 (Thunder 43-35 in G1), outscored them in the paint 48-32 (56-40 OKC in G1) and barely lost the fast break point battle 10-11 (Thunder 24-4 in G1).

> I thought from the start last night that referees Tom Washington, Dan Crawford and Tony Brothers wanted to put their stamp on the game, and they did. Miami ended up with 21 fouls compared to 22 for OKC. Not a huge difference at all but it’s very rare for the home side to have more fouls in any NBA contest much less a Finals game (Thunder 16, Heat 19 in G1 for comparison).

> Through two games Shane Battier has been on fire. He hadn’t scored double-digits in consecutive games all season and hadn’t hit nine 3-pointers over a two-game span in more than five years. Battier is shooting an amazing 70.6% from the field and 69.2% from three so far. Considering that his regular season numbers were 38.7% and 33.9% respectively I don’t think he’ll be able to keep it up since regression to the mean catches up to everyone eventually.

> Memo to Kendrick Perkins: If you don’t have a post move that you can execute with Battier on your back two-feet from the basket you’ve got some work to do this summer.

> Over the course of his career I don’t think I’ve ever seen LeBron have his shot blocked as many times as I have in these past two games.

> In G2 Russell Westbrook needed 26 shots to score 27 points and James Harden only 11 to score 21.

> Bold prediction: Durant goes for 40+ points in Game 3.

> Does anyone else see the irony in Seattle building a new arena to steal some other city’s team when they can’t stop bitching about the same thing happening to them four years ago?

Finals

My picks for the Conference Finals were shaky at best as reflected in my 1-1 record (11-3 overall). I did have Miami-Oklahoma City as the Finals in my season preview but I made the classic mistake of going against that by picking San Antonio. I am a big proponent of the emerging numbers based analytics that are currently sweeping the NBA universe and that’s really why I picked the Spurs. However over the course of the Western Conference Finals the Thunder managed to reverse several trends that were working against them coming in. OKC committed three less turnovers, one less foul and handed out the exact number of assists per game. They also shot a better percentage from the field and were practically equal from the 3-point line. These were all supposed to be huge advantages for SA heading in as was coaching but Scott Brooks did a number on Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich by getting his club to buy into consistently making the extra pass while taking better care of the ball. The Spurs and Pop never recovered and really looked at a loss for new ideas in games 6 & 7.

Miami at Oklahoma City – From looking at their regular season statistics there really isn’t much separating these two squads. The Thunder are better at defending the three (9th to 25th) and free throw shooting (1st to 7th) while playing at a faster pace (5th to 14th). The Heat have the edge in assists (21st to 30th), turnovers (23rd to 30th) and fouls (14th to 23rd) per game. Five or less spots separate them in opponent shooting, field goal & 3-point shooting, rebound differential, offensive & defensive efficiency and true shooting percentage.

When it comes to individual matchups nothing compares to the top two voters getters in MVP and All-NBA going at each other. I suppose you could argue that they aren’t the best two players in the Association but you’d be fighting an uphill battle. Of course I’m talking about LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and what makes this so great is they play the same position so they should be guarding each other a lot of the time. James has the muscle and Durant the length and I’d be lying if I said I was excited to see these two go at each other with the title on the line. The clash of second fiddles should favor Russell Westbrook since Dwyane Wade (left knee) is obviously not himself. Making matters worse for Wade is that defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha will be on him most of the time and when Thabo checks out Sixth Man of the Year James Harden checks in meaning Dwyane can’t hide on defense anymore, even if Shane Battier is on the court with him. I don’t think it matters if Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) starts or comes off the bench because OKC has plenty of big bodies to throw at him. Second place vote getter in Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defense Serge Ibaka will be the primary Bosh defender but Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison will also have their shots.

If I was Thunder Coach Scott Brooks I wouldn’t waste any time getting the lineup of Westbrook/Harden/Sefolosha/Durant/Ibaka on the floor together. For my money that is the most athletic five in the NBA (maybe ever…seriously) and even Miami will have trouble matching up against it. Heat Coach Eric Spoelstra hasn’t been stellar this post season but to match that five I think Wade/Battier/James/Bosh/Udonis Haslem gives him the best chance. Bosh is the only guy on either team that qualifies as a low-post threat offensively but with OKC’s multitude of post defenders I think we’ll see these games decided on the perimeter and in the open court rather than in the paint. This series is going to be very competitive and highly entertaining to watch and it’s extremely tough to make a call. I had Miami winning this tussle in my season preview but I can’t shake this feeling that it’s the Thunder’s time. They are healthier, deeper, have home court advantage and picking them allows me to hedge my bets and say I was right either way. OKC in 7.

2014 World Cup Cycle Begins!

On Friday 6/8 the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) begins their arduous trek to qualify for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Qualifying lasts 16 games and runs from 6/8/12 to 10/15/13. First up will be Antigua & Barbuda (144 SPI rank) in Tampa at 4 PM Pacific on ESPN followed by an away match against Guatemala (76) at 7 PM Pacific on pay-per-view ($29.95). Qualifying resumes on 9/7 at Jamaica (61) and 9/11 against Jamaica in Columbus at 5 PM Pacific on ESPN2. The final two matches of the third round (the USMNT gets to skip the first two rounds based on their ranking (32) within CONCACAF) will be at Antigua & Barbuda on 10/12 and 10/16 against Guatemala in Kansas City at 4 PM Pacific on ESPN2.

The USMNT just completed a series of three friendlies to warm up for qualifying and for the most part they looked pretty good (I watched every minute of play in all three). First up was Scotland (45) on 5/26 in Jacksonville where the USMNT rolled 5-1 behind a hat-trick from Landon Donovan. In this match Coach Jürgen Klinsmann’s boys flashed a fluid attacking style that was a big departure from former Coach Bob Bradley’s more measured style of play.

Next up was Brazil’s Under-23 side (they were preparing for the Olympics) on 5/30 in Landover where we lost 1-4. The score didn’t indicate our quality however as the referee did us no favors nor did our finishing as we missed several point blank chances.

The final tune up was a 0-0 draw on 6/3 in Toronto against a Canadian side that sat back, played defense and made it so we couldn’t string three passes together. Of course we were playing our third match in nine days as opposed to Canada (58) playing their first game since 2/29 so fatigue may have played a factor.

When it comes down to whom the starting 11 should be this Friday I first have to mention who isn’t on the roster. Timothy Chandler (22 years old) opted to skip these five matches to “rest” (read the link to see why I used quotes), Juan Agudelo (19) was cut from the final 23, Brek Shea (22) wasn’t even named due to several issues and Eric Lichaj (23) was left off as well. Obviously Tim Howard will be our goalie but the four in front of him is up for debate.

Captain Carlos Bocanegra will start in the middle and I think Clarence Goodson has to be beside him. Oguchi Onyewu has never been the same since he tore the patellar tendon in his left knee on 10/14/09 and I don’t see that changing any time soon since he’s now recovering from a torn ligament and meniscus in his right knee suffered on 2/19. On the left side Fabian Johnson has to start unless his right calf isn’t fully healed by first kick. On the right side Steve Cherundolo will probably be Klinsmann’s choice but I’d go with Edgar Castillo for a few reasons; he’s 7 years younger, has more pace and is far more dangerous coming forward. Whoever doesn’t start out of Cherundolo and Castillo should be the first defender off the bench followed by Michael Parkhurst and Onyewu.

Since I don’t know what type of formation Jürgen will deploy I’m going to combine the midfielders and forwards. I don’t think there’s much question that Donovan, Clint Dempsey (17 Premier League goals for Fulham this season, tied 4th overall) and Michael Bradley will start. After those three there can be some debate but I think Maurice Edu will join Bradley in the central midfield and Jermaine Jones will play out wide opposite of Donovan or Dempsey. I would give the final spot to Jozy Altidore (15 Eredivisie goals for AZ Alkmaar this season, tied 7th overall) but Klinsmann may prefer Jose Torres or Herculez Gomez. Another option would be to put Johnson in the midfield out wide and move Jones inside with Bradley benching Edu (to get Castillo on the field). Assuming Jürgen won’t be that bold my first midfielder/forward off the pine would be Torres followed by Gomez then Terrence Boyd.

I expect this version of the USMNT to beat Antigua & Barbuda handily, hopefully running up the score in the process to pad their goal differential (the first tie-breaker if points are equal). The Guatemala match will be the first “big” game of the Klinsmann era and I’m more than a little concerned about it. If we play like we did against Scotland and Brazil a draw (always the objective on the road in World Cup qualifying) is certainly possible. But if we play like we did against Canada an embarrassing loss to Los Chapines is not out of the question.

The top two from each group in the third round advance to the final round hexagonal where the top three advance to the World Cup. Fourth place in CONCACAF will then play first place in OFC (likely New Zealand) in the Inter-Confederation playoffs for the right to move on to Brazil.

Third Round CONCACAF (SPI)

Group A
USA 32
Jamaica 61
Guatemala 76
Antigua & Barbuda 144

Group B
Mexico 8
Costa Rica 39
El Salvador 93
Guyana 123

Group C (Death)
Honduras 46
Panama 52
Canada 58
Cuba 115

My picks to advance are in red.