Early Season Quick-Hitters

After only three days of games I’m about to take the next four days off to watch Phish blow up Madison Square Garden (online). So what have I seen so far? Read on…

> Even though it’s early and both are without a key player (Paul Pierce and Andrew Bynum respectively) Boston and the Lakers are pretty much what I thought they’d be. Old, slow and relying on guile more than skill. That said things look much bleaker for Boston since their depth is such that signing Mickael Pietrus qualifies as a reason for optimism. I think as the season progresses the Celtics are really going to wear down.

Things might not be as bad as I originally laid out for Los Angeles but they aren’t yet true contenders on this blog. The PG situation is still awful but freed from the triangle Steve Blake seems to have a little more pep in his step. He definitely spent his off season shooting threes. The real reason LA doesn’t hurt my eyes to watch though is the scrappiness guys like Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy and Devin Ebanks bring every night. Gone are the laissez-faire Lakers of yore. This group has to hustle and work on every possession or they will get blown out. Give Coach Mike Brown credit for instilling that early on and to the players for obviously buying in with their defensive effort.

> Miami’s new “spread” offense (inspired by the Oregon Ducks no less) is getting a lot of kudos around the league but I’m not sure it’s the answer to their problems. If you let the Heat get out into the open court where they can run and build a lead the game is essentially over. However when they get pulled into a grind it out half court affair where the opposition is playing a zone defense they still struggle. I know it’s very early but stay tuned.

> I wouldn’t necessarily make the jump John Hollinger did comparing Dallas to the ’06-07 defending champion Miami Heat but he does make a compelling argument (insider).

> I’ve seen every minute Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio has played so far and everyone needs to put the Haterade down. The kid can play. I’ve already witnessed enough to say that at worst he has a long career as a backup PG. That’s the floor for him. How high his ceiling goes obviously remains to be seen but he has an unreal feel for the game. His ability to see things one step ahead of everyone else manifests itself in his passing aptitude and the way he plays the passing lanes on defense. He lacks any semblance of confidence is his own offensive game but being surrounded by NBA caliber guys only accentuates what he does well.

One last point on the Wolves; Kevin Love looks great. He’s lost all his “baby fat” and is becoming the kind of leader that his immense talent suggests he should.

> The Stephen Jackson meltdown watch is officially on. First he missed most of training camp with “back issues” that were later said to be code for wanting a new contract. I hate to break it to Captain Jack but he is 33 with another year after this on his deal. I’m sorry but no one in their right mind would extend him now. He’s been grumpy and pouty so far from what I’ve seen which is a shame because if he comes to play with his head screwed on straight every night Milwaukee should be pretty darn good.

Another Bucks mention; Rookie Jon Leuer can play and will be in the NBA for quite some time. Think of a smarter more offensively polished but less athletic version of Kris Humphries. A nice find with the 40th pick in the draft by GM John Hammond.

Season Preview

As unbelievable as it may sound I was actually able to catch at least a few minutes of every team this “preseason.” And my one take away from that experience is: Get ready for some ugly basketball. With only two weeks of training camp and two preseason games to prepare the first month of the season is going to be like training-camp-on-the-fly league wide. You can expect to see tons of bricks, missed bunnies at the rim, fumbled balls out of bounds, passes to no one and miscommunications galore on both offense and defense.


With an unsightly January looming I wish I could tell you that February will be better, but I can’t. I think this February will look and feel like what December normally would. Usually by December rotations have been established, kinks worked out and guys are in game shape but teams are still rounding into form. I expect it will take at least month to six weeks just for this season to get to that point.

By the time March rolls around we will be in uncharted territory as the toll of the grueling 66 games in 124 days schedule will be in full swing. Playing back-to-back-to-backs and stretches like nine games in twelve days is going to have a massive effect on the player’s bodies. So it’s safe to assume that there will be a plethora of injuries to key guys, especially early on. This kamikaze schedule will also favor squads with more depth and youth over sides with experience that have shortened rotations built for the playoffs.

In the spirit of this abbreviated season, and because I’m writing this on Christmas Eve during NFL games, the format of my preview has to change. The “Eyes On” and “Now or Never” sections will return next year and I apologize in advance if I give your team short shrift. With so many different variables in play this season (like the unbalanced inter-conference schedules) this year’s predictions feel like more of a crap shoot than ever. With that said…

EAST

1. Chicago Bulls – There’s nothing this team doesn’t have. They are young, deep, tough, can rebound, play defense and have continuity. The addition of Richard Hamilton will help them immensely during the regular season but I’m not sure he’s the answer to get them past Miami in the Conference Finals. The Bulls can certainly win it all but for that to happen Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah must develop some chemistry and become duel threats on offense.

2. Miami Heat – Other than LeBron James disappearing in crunch time of big games all the Heat have to worry about is the center position and big man depth. Joel Anthony is barely serviceable in the middle and Udonis Haslem is their only legitimate big off the bench. A healthy Mike Miller and the addition of Shane Battier shored up their wing positions and look out for rookie PG Norris Cole. Las Vegas has Miami as the 2-1 favorite to win the title and only injuries or internal strife can derail them as I see it.

3. Philadelphia 76ers – This is probably too high for the Sixers but they are young (outside of Elton Brand), deep, play defense and possess the needed continuity to get off to a good start. Doug Collins coached squads usually peak in year two of his reign and I expect that to happen once again. I don’t see Philly making much noise in the post season unless Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner take the next step in their development and even that might not be enough.

4. Indiana Pacers – I have the Pacers higher than most but again I like their depth and youth. What separates Indy from the clubs below them is their rebounding and big man depth. David West, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Louis Amundson aren’t going to lose many toughness battles. I worry about their depth at the wing positions though and how Coach Frank Vogel will handle integrating two new starters in his first full season on the job.

5. Orlando Magic – The Magic are a very tough team to predict because who knows what’s going to happen with the Dwight Howard situation. External distractions aside Orlando returns pretty much the same unit outside of Glen Davis and possibly Daniel Orton. So if Howard is plugged in mentally he will still control the paint on both ends of the floor. How good the Magic really are will depend on which versions of Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu show up.

6. New York Knicks – The much ballyhooed addition of Tyson Chandler only matters if Mike D’Antoni decides to coach defense. The Knicks also have very questionable depth at every position and are relying on guys like Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Baron Davis to be competent. The reason I have them so high is because D’Antoni is in a contract year (Phil Jackson anyone?) so he will likely ride his shortened rotation into the ground and end up with a few more wins because of it.

7. Boston Celtics – The compressed schedule is really going to hurt the Celtics and with Paul Pierce (right heel) already questionable that is not a good sign. Their depth is pretty much awful with the exception of Brandon Bass and four of their five starters have played 13 NBA seasons or more. There’s also talk that the mercurial Rajon Rondo is unhappy with his name constantly being trade rumors. Overall the boys from Bean Town are done and should be happy they play in the East.

8. Milwaukee Bucks – Their offense was so historically bad last season that even a slight improvement would have made them a playoff team. Ball stoppers John Salmons and Corey Maggette have been replaced with high basketball IQ guys Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy so that should help. However the Bucks fortunes really depend on Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut improving their play.

9. Detroit Pistons – The Pistons spent most of last season in sabotage-the-coach mode so replacing John Kuester with Lawrence Frank is a massive upgrade. That said their roster is still a mess of shoot first combo guards and tweener forwards. I have them this high based on their depth and the East stinking again.

10. Atlanta Hawks – Their free agent additions of Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Vladimir Radmanovic, Jannero Pargo and Willie Green reads like a who’s who of the NBA scrap heap. Josh Smith supposedly has made it known that he wants out and Kirk Hinrich (left shoulder) will miss at least the first month of the season. I think this group reached their peak a few years ago and now they are stuck in the middle.

11. New Jersey Nets – Replacing Brook Lopez (right foot) with Memo Okur on the fly was solid move by President Billy King. Aside from Deron Williams though I fail to see who on the Nets is going to score points consistently. They just won’t have the talent to compete on most nights and I’m not sure that D-Will resigns with them this summer.

12. Toronto Raptors – New coach Dwane Casey will at least attempt to make these guys plays defense for a change but I don’t think it will matter since most of their personnel is ill suited to the task. Raptor fans should look forward to next year when Jonas Valanciunas can join Ed Davis to form their big man tandem of the future.

13. Washington Wizards – John Wall seems poised to take his game to the next level but the rest of this squad is littered with shoot first and ask questions later types like Nick Young, Jordan Crawford and Andray Blatche. Wall should be fun to watch regardless though.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers – While Dan Gilbert continues his meteoric rise up the bad owner list his club continues to be an ugly mess on the court.

15. Charlotte Bobcats – Another guy moving up that same bad owner list is Michael Jordan and his team will be equally disastrous.

Final Four – Chicago, Miami, New York, Indiana

Eastern Finals – Chicago, Miami

WEST

1. Oklahoma City Thunder – Depth, youth, defense, rebounding, toughness, athleticism, continuity…you name it, they have it. The only thing that concerns me about their roster is the lack of a true backup behind Kevin Durant and they could also use another 3-point shooter. As long as the Thunder can deal with the pressure that comes with expectations, and Coach Scott Brooks improves his late game play designing, the West is OKC’s to lose.

2. Dallas Mavericks – Depth and versatility will be their calling cards somewhat offsetting how much their defense will likely fall off without Tyson Chandler. Roddy Beaubois can replace J.J. Barea’s production but I’m not as high on Lamar Odom’s addition as most. Lam-Lam’s best position is PF and unfortunately for him a guy named Dirk Nowitzki has dibs on the spot. I don’t expect that a crunch time lineup of Odom at SF or Dirk at center will work consistently. Regardless Coach Rick Carlisle will be able to alter his lineup to match up with anybody but they don’t have enough muscle up front to win it all.

3. San Antonio Spurs – I know this might seem high for such an old group but their second unit of T.J. Ford, James Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Matt Bonner and Tiago Splitter has youth, athleticism, shooting and size. I expect Coach Gregg Popovich to use those guys liberally so Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson and Tim Duncan don’t wear down. I can’t go as far as them being legitimate title contenders but they will be very dangerous in a 7-game series.

4. Los Angeles Clippers – The additions of Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups to Blake Griffin will make the Clips absolutely murder in crunch time. I’m not sure how a high pick and roll with CP3 and Blake can be defended consistently. Especially when you figure that Billups will be spotting up in the corner and DeAndre Jordan will be on the weak side looking for a lob. However their backup big men are Brian Cook, Reggie Evans and Trey Thompkins which is not good…at all. “Lob City” will not be serious contenders until that is remedied.

5. Denver Nuggets – Another deep and versatile club with the ability to add a significant piece or two in March when Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin return from China. I think they lack low post scoring but are pretty solid everywhere else. I look for Coach George Karl to use the tried and true mile high method of running all the time and bringing bodies at the opposition in waves. If things break right the Nugs could finish even higher than this but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs because the West is still very tough.

6. Portland Trail Blazers – No Brandon Roy (retired) no Greg Oden (left knee), no problem! The GM-less Blazers made a bunch of smart moves shoring up their depth by bringing in Jamal Crawford, Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith. Coach Nate McMillan has his work cut out for him integrating Ray Felton (contract year) and Crawford (notorious gunner) while keeping Gerald Wallace, Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum happy. This is another side that could finish a little higher or miss the playoffs entirely.

7. Los Angeles Lakers – My boys did nothing to address their one glaring weakness from last year, the PG position. Derek Fisher and Steve Blake combined to form the least productive PG tandem in the entire Association and they are inexplicably back for yet another go around. That is why giving Lamar Odom away for nothing was so stupid. Lamar could have easily returned a half decent PG which would have been a major upgrade for LA. As it stands now the Lakers are an aging, capped out team with a new coach and system, an injured superstar (Kobe Bryant, right wrist), no Andrew Bynum for the first 4 games, little depth and even less athleticism. Missing the playoffs is a very real possibility for them.

8. Memphis Grizzlies – The Griz are the trendy pick this season based on their playoff run last year and the return of Rudy Gay. Losing Darrel Arthur (right Achilles) for the season was a blow but replacing him with Dante Cunningham was an underrated shrewd move. That said I don’t like their depth enough to jump on the bandwagon but them catching lightning in a bottle again come playoff time can’t be ruled out either.

9. Houston Rockets – Pau Gasol and Nene Hilario should be one of the most formidable big men duos in the NBA. Oh wait, Commissioner David Stern didn’t like that. I guess Samuel Dalembert will have to do then! This Rocket team is extremely deep, almost too much so for new coach Kevin McHale to handle effectively. And as much as I love Luis Scola he’s more of second option than a first on good team. Houston would definitely make the playoffs in the East, and could in the West too, but without a true go-to scorer I think come up just short.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves – Coach Rick Adelman will have them playing an entertaining and exciting style which is why this squad has already been deemed the favorite to watch by League Pass junkies everywhere. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Randolph and Derrick Williams are a talented bunch but the playoffs are another year away at least.

11. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are at a sort of crossroads in terms of the construction of their roster. The future is obviously Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and two first round picks in this year’s draft. Then there’s Devin Harris, Raja Bell, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson whose contracts are all up after next season. The playoffs are probably out of reach this season but Director Kevin O’Connor has them set up masterfully for the future.

12. Sacramento Kings – Coach Paul Westphal really has his work cut out for him since passing is a dirty word to Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, Marcus Thornton, Francisco Garcia, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw, J.J. Hickson and DeMarcus Cousins. I just mentioned eight of their top ten players and unfortunately neither Jason Thompson nor Chuck Hayes is a point guard. They should be very fun to watch though in a they-might-fight-each-other-at-any-moment kind of way.

13. Phoenix Suns – Owner Robert Sarver has done an unbelievably good job of dismantling a perennial contender while wasting the end of Steve Nash’s career at the same time. If they really aren’t going to package Nash with one of their many bad contracts they deserve everything they get. Like two more seasons after this one of Marcin Gortat, Josh Childress, Channing Frye, Hakim Warrick and Jared Dudley. Yuck!

14. New Orleans Hornets – Apparently the NBA has four or five buyers lined up that will keep this franchise down on the Bayou and the deal will be done by March. Uh-huh, and I have a line on some beach front property in Nebraska if you are interested. This bunch has been painfully awful any time Chris Paul wasn’t running the show and I don’t expect the arrival of Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman to change that any.

15. Golden State Warriors – I give rookie coach Mark Jackson about a month before he wishes he was back calling games with Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy. Jackson keeps saying how the Warriors are going to be all about defense. The problem with that is their best defenders outside of starter Dorrell Wright are scrubs Kwame Brown and Dominic McGuire. Good luck with that.

Final Four – Oklahoma City, Dallas, San Antonio, Clippers

Western Finals – Oklahoma City, Dallas

NBA Finals – Miami, Oklahoma City

NBA Champion – Miami

If you’ve read this far you deserve a gambling tip; Go big on Chicago -4.5 on Christmas.

Lockout & Trade Debacle

The NBA lockout lasted 160 days and cost the league 240 total games and I’m here to tell you that the players won…yet again. For all the histrionics and mentions of “nuclear winter” and cancelled seasons all the players really gave up was a huge chuck of Basketball Related Income (BRI). I’m not trying to gloss over the difference between 57% and 49-51% of BRI (about $300 million per season) but there is still a soft salary cap, fully guaranteed contracts and no roll-backs of current contracts. If you’re scoring at home that’s a win-win-win for the players on three big issues. Not to mention that trade rules were loosened and the minimum team salary floor was raised. Two more wins for the players.

This lockout really had nothing to do with the players though. It was all about big market owners versus small market owners with the players more or less stuck in the middle. The fear amongst small market clubs (particularly those with new owners) was that the NBA was slowly morphing into the haves and haves nots similar to how Major League Baseball (MLB) operates. I give the lockout credit for nothing else besides opening my eyes to this fact.

In the end the little guys did manage to approximately triple the amount of money that is revenue-shared and made the luxury tax far more punitive. Theoretically these things should level the playing field but in practice I’m not so sure they will. Only time will tell I suppose but I really want to move on from the lockout and get to the crux of the problem, which is that Commissioner David Stern lost control of his constituents.

Larry Coon on what changed in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).

Bill Simmons on the behind the scenes machinations of the lockout.

In recent years the NBA has seen a new breed of owner come into the league. Gone are the Abe Pollin’s, Gordon Gund’s and Bill Davidson’s of the world, or the men who made a financial killing under Stern’s watch. Pretty much all of the newer owners in the league paid handsomely for their franchises and have been losing money ever since. You combine these new guys with their small market brethren and you have a legitimate split at the top of the NBA hierarchy. That faction was at odds with people like Jerry Buss, Mark Cuban and James Dolan who thought things were just fine as they were. In years past this is where “Easy Dave” would step in and either bully or charm enough of the room to get everyone on the same page. Well that didn’t happen this time around as evidenced by the 24-5 passing owner’s vote of the new CBA.

If only that was the end of the story, but on the same day that the owners ratified the new CBA the Lakers, Rockets and Hornets agreed on blockbuster trade that would have sent Chris Paul to Los Angeles, Pau Gasol to Houston and Lamar Odom, Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Goran Dragic and New York’s 2012 first round draft pick to New Orleans. This deal was signed, sealed and delivered to the point of CP3 having a flight to LA and Lam-Lam crying on Stephen A. Smith’s radio show.

So what happened?

The small market owners created such an uproar that the Commish vetoed what was a very fair deal all the way around at the last second citing the extraordinarily dubious “basketball reasons.” It is unprecedented for any trade to get so far down the line that every player and agent is notified only to have the league say “Psych!” Since I can’t do a better job than Adrian Wojnarowski of explaining all the angles behind what is arguably the most sordid moment in sports history I won’t even try.

Instead I want to focus on what the Hornets actually got in exchange for CP3 and explain why, on a purely basketball level, that they didn’t do anywhere near as well as most experts are saying. I’m not blaming NOLA GM Dell Demps at all, because as the Commissioner has gone on record saying, NBA Executive Vice President Stu Jackson was the man calling the shots. The same Stu Jackson who ran the Vancouver Grizzlies so poorly that they moved to Memphis after only six seasons. This guy is pretty much universally known as a horrible GM, but whatever, he was acting in the “best interest” of the franchise. You know, because he did such a good job of that in the past.

Anyway, the Hornets ended up trading Paul and two second round picks in 2015 to the Clippers for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu and Minnesota’s 2012 first rounder. I find it outrageously hypocritical that Dan Gilbert, Mark Cuban and Michael Jordan had no problems with this trade even though it was another small to big market move. I guess the moral to the story is everyone loved sticking it to the Lakers and took their opportunity to seize the moment.

But I digress. In two years NOLA will have Aminu and whoever they get with that Timberwolves pick to show for their franchise player. The reason I say that is because Kaman is in the last year of his contract and there is no way he is resigning there. And per what I’m reading Gordon has already made it known to the powers that be that he desperately wants out of the Bayou. So unless they are able to turn Kaman and Gordon into something else this was a fleecing of the highest order.

Don’t believe me? Compare what Jackson and Stern obtained for their superstar to what Denver’s Masai Ujiri got for Carmelo Anthony:

Andre Miller, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, Jordan Hamilton, New York’s 2014 first round pick, Golden State’s 2012 & 2013 second round picks, Portland’s 2013 second round pick, the right to exchange first round picks with New York in 2016 and $3 million.

How about what Utah’s Kevin O’Connor received for Deron Williams:

Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Golden State’s 2012 first round pick (top 7 protected) and $3 million.

Hmmmm, are you feeling me now?

Here’s what Stern and Jackson weren’t thinking about when they completely shafted the Lakers and Rockets; the resale value of Odom, Scola, Martin and even Dragic (a very serviceable backup PG). Throwing out the fact that those four make them a competitive team, you know the kind that the people who bought 10,000+ season tickets would like to see. Martin is overpaid but is one of the most efficient SGs in the Association. Scola is fairly paid and one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Odom is actually underpaid and in the last year of his contract (he has a team option for next season).

My point being that a wise GM with a little patience, like say Sam Presti, could have flipped all of those guys (except Dragic) to desperate contenders who either needed an injury replacement or a little extra something to get them over the hump. All while putting a decent product on the floor at the same time. I’m not even mentioning that Minnesota’s pick likely won’t be as high as most people think (it will be better than New York’s though), unless they get lucky in the draft lottery of course. Imagine that one, an NBA owned franchise winning the lottery? And you thought the non-trade was a PR disaster.

This is why I am saying unequivocally that it’s time for David Stern to go. I’ve been one of his biggest defenders (total apologist) over the years but when people are comparing the NBA to MLB, and I’m actually agreeing with them, it’s time for a change. The lockout was handled like a shell game trying to distract the public from the real issues. And even though Stern says he doesn’t care about his legacy the vetoed trade will forever walk with him like the Scarlet Letter. Now I’m not saying that Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver is the man for the job by any means but an out-of-the-box thinker is what the NBA needs right now. Someone…like…say…ME!