12.24.2011

Season Preview

As unbelievable as it may sound I was actually able to catch at least a few minutes of every team this “preseason.” And my one take away from that experience is: Get ready for some ugly basketball. With only two weeks of training camp and two preseason games to prepare the first month of the season is going to be like training-camp-on-the-fly league wide. You can expect to see tons of bricks, missed bunnies at the rim, fumbled balls out of bounds, passes to no one and miscommunications galore on both offense and defense.


With an unsightly January looming I wish I could tell you that February will be better, but I can’t. I think this February will look and feel like what December normally would. Usually by December rotations have been established, kinks worked out and guys are in game shape but teams are still rounding into form. I expect it will take at least month to six weeks just for this season to get to that point.

By the time March rolls around we will be in uncharted territory as the toll of the grueling 66 games in 124 days schedule will be in full swing. Playing back-to-back-to-backs and stretches like nine games in twelve days is going to have a massive effect on the player’s bodies. So it’s safe to assume that there will be a plethora of injuries to key guys, especially early on. This kamikaze schedule will also favor squads with more depth and youth over sides with experience that have shortened rotations built for the playoffs.

In the spirit of this abbreviated season, and because I’m writing this on Christmas Eve during NFL games, the format of my preview has to change. The “Eyes On” and “Now or Never” sections will return next year and I apologize in advance if I give your team short shrift. With so many different variables in play this season (like the unbalanced inter-conference schedules) this year’s predictions feel like more of a crap shoot than ever. With that said…

EAST

1. Chicago Bulls – There’s nothing this team doesn’t have. They are young, deep, tough, can rebound, play defense and have continuity. The addition of Richard Hamilton will help them immensely during the regular season but I’m not sure he’s the answer to get them past Miami in the Conference Finals. The Bulls can certainly win it all but for that to happen Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah must develop some chemistry and become duel threats on offense.

2. Miami Heat – Other than LeBron James disappearing in crunch time of big games all the Heat have to worry about is the center position and big man depth. Joel Anthony is barely serviceable in the middle and Udonis Haslem is their only legitimate big off the bench. A healthy Mike Miller and the addition of Shane Battier shored up their wing positions and look out for rookie PG Norris Cole. Las Vegas has Miami as the 2-1 favorite to win the title and only injuries or internal strife can derail them as I see it.

3. Philadelphia 76ers – This is probably too high for the Sixers but they are young (outside of Elton Brand), deep, play defense and possess the needed continuity to get off to a good start. Doug Collins coached squads usually peak in year two of his reign and I expect that to happen once again. I don’t see Philly making much noise in the post season unless Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner take the next step in their development and even that might not be enough.

4. Indiana Pacers – I have the Pacers higher than most but again I like their depth and youth. What separates Indy from the clubs below them is their rebounding and big man depth. David West, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Louis Amundson aren’t going to lose many toughness battles. I worry about their depth at the wing positions though and how Coach Frank Vogel will handle integrating two new starters in his first full season on the job.

5. Orlando Magic – The Magic are a very tough team to predict because who knows what’s going to happen with the Dwight Howard situation. External distractions aside Orlando returns pretty much the same unit outside of Glen Davis and possibly Daniel Orton. So if Howard is plugged in mentally he will still control the paint on both ends of the floor. How good the Magic really are will depend on which versions of Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu show up.

6. New York Knicks – The much ballyhooed addition of Tyson Chandler only matters if Mike D’Antoni decides to coach defense. The Knicks also have very questionable depth at every position and are relying on guys like Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Baron Davis to be competent. The reason I have them so high is because D’Antoni is in a contract year (Phil Jackson anyone?) so he will likely ride his shortened rotation into the ground and end up with a few more wins because of it.

7. Boston Celtics – The compressed schedule is really going to hurt the Celtics and with Paul Pierce (right heel) already questionable that is not a good sign. Their depth is pretty much awful with the exception of Brandon Bass and four of their five starters have played 13 NBA seasons or more. There’s also talk that the mercurial Rajon Rondo is unhappy with his name constantly being trade rumors. Overall the boys from Bean Town are done and should be happy they play in the East.

8. Milwaukee Bucks – Their offense was so historically bad last season that even a slight improvement would have made them a playoff team. Ball stoppers John Salmons and Corey Maggette have been replaced with high basketball IQ guys Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy so that should help. However the Bucks fortunes really depend on Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut improving their play.

9. Detroit Pistons – The Pistons spent most of last season in sabotage-the-coach mode so replacing John Kuester with Lawrence Frank is a massive upgrade. That said their roster is still a mess of shoot first combo guards and tweener forwards. I have them this high based on their depth and the East stinking again.

10. Atlanta Hawks – Their free agent additions of Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Vladimir Radmanovic, Jannero Pargo and Willie Green reads like a who’s who of the NBA scrap heap. Josh Smith supposedly has made it known that he wants out and Kirk Hinrich (left shoulder) will miss at least the first month of the season. I think this group reached their peak a few years ago and now they are stuck in the middle.

11. New Jersey Nets – Replacing Brook Lopez (right foot) with Memo Okur on the fly was solid move by President Billy King. Aside from Deron Williams though I fail to see who on the Nets is going to score points consistently. They just won’t have the talent to compete on most nights and I’m not sure that D-Will resigns with them this summer.

12. Toronto Raptors – New coach Dwane Casey will at least attempt to make these guys plays defense for a change but I don’t think it will matter since most of their personnel is ill suited to the task. Raptor fans should look forward to next year when Jonas Valanciunas can join Ed Davis to form their big man tandem of the future.

13. Washington Wizards – John Wall seems poised to take his game to the next level but the rest of this squad is littered with shoot first and ask questions later types like Nick Young, Jordan Crawford and Andray Blatche. Wall should be fun to watch regardless though.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers – While Dan Gilbert continues his meteoric rise up the bad owner list his club continues to be an ugly mess on the court.

15. Charlotte Bobcats – Another guy moving up that same bad owner list is Michael Jordan and his team will be equally disastrous.

Final Four – Chicago, Miami, New York, Indiana

Eastern Finals – Chicago, Miami

WEST

1. Oklahoma City Thunder – Depth, youth, defense, rebounding, toughness, athleticism, continuity…you name it, they have it. The only thing that concerns me about their roster is the lack of a true backup behind Kevin Durant and they could also use another 3-point shooter. As long as the Thunder can deal with the pressure that comes with expectations, and Coach Scott Brooks improves his late game play designing, the West is OKC’s to lose.

2. Dallas Mavericks – Depth and versatility will be their calling cards somewhat offsetting how much their defense will likely fall off without Tyson Chandler. Roddy Beaubois can replace J.J. Barea’s production but I’m not as high on Lamar Odom’s addition as most. Lam-Lam’s best position is PF and unfortunately for him a guy named Dirk Nowitzki has dibs on the spot. I don’t expect that a crunch time lineup of Odom at SF or Dirk at center will work consistently. Regardless Coach Rick Carlisle will be able to alter his lineup to match up with anybody but they don’t have enough muscle up front to win it all.

3. San Antonio Spurs – I know this might seem high for such an old group but their second unit of T.J. Ford, James Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Matt Bonner and Tiago Splitter has youth, athleticism, shooting and size. I expect Coach Gregg Popovich to use those guys liberally so Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson and Tim Duncan don’t wear down. I can’t go as far as them being legitimate title contenders but they will be very dangerous in a 7-game series.

4. Los Angeles Clippers – The additions of Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups to Blake Griffin will make the Clips absolutely murder in crunch time. I’m not sure how a high pick and roll with CP3 and Blake can be defended consistently. Especially when you figure that Billups will be spotting up in the corner and DeAndre Jordan will be on the weak side looking for a lob. However their backup big men are Brian Cook, Reggie Evans and Trey Thompkins which is not good…at all. “Lob City” will not be serious contenders until that is remedied.

5. Denver Nuggets – Another deep and versatile club with the ability to add a significant piece or two in March when Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin return from China. I think they lack low post scoring but are pretty solid everywhere else. I look for Coach George Karl to use the tried and true mile high method of running all the time and bringing bodies at the opposition in waves. If things break right the Nugs could finish even higher than this but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs because the West is still very tough.

6. Portland Trail Blazers – No Brandon Roy (retired) no Greg Oden (left knee), no problem! The GM-less Blazers made a bunch of smart moves shoring up their depth by bringing in Jamal Crawford, Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith. Coach Nate McMillan has his work cut out for him integrating Ray Felton (contract year) and Crawford (notorious gunner) while keeping Gerald Wallace, Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum happy. This is another side that could finish a little higher or miss the playoffs entirely.

7. Los Angeles Lakers – My boys did nothing to address their one glaring weakness from last year, the PG position. Derek Fisher and Steve Blake combined to form the least productive PG tandem in the entire Association and they are inexplicably back for yet another go around. That is why giving Lamar Odom away for nothing was so stupid. Lamar could have easily returned a half decent PG which would have been a major upgrade for LA. As it stands now the Lakers are an aging, capped out team with a new coach and system, an injured superstar (Kobe Bryant, right wrist), no Andrew Bynum for the first 4 games, little depth and even less athleticism. Missing the playoffs is a very real possibility for them.

8. Memphis Grizzlies – The Griz are the trendy pick this season based on their playoff run last year and the return of Rudy Gay. Losing Darrel Arthur (right Achilles) for the season was a blow but replacing him with Dante Cunningham was an underrated shrewd move. That said I don’t like their depth enough to jump on the bandwagon but them catching lightning in a bottle again come playoff time can’t be ruled out either.

9. Houston Rockets – Pau Gasol and Nene Hilario should be one of the most formidable big men duos in the NBA. Oh wait, Commissioner David Stern didn’t like that. I guess Samuel Dalembert will have to do then! This Rocket team is extremely deep, almost too much so for new coach Kevin McHale to handle effectively. And as much as I love Luis Scola he’s more of second option than a first on good team. Houston would definitely make the playoffs in the East, and could in the West too, but without a true go-to scorer I think come up just short.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves – Coach Rick Adelman will have them playing an entertaining and exciting style which is why this squad has already been deemed the favorite to watch by League Pass junkies everywhere. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Randolph and Derrick Williams are a talented bunch but the playoffs are another year away at least.

11. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are at a sort of crossroads in terms of the construction of their roster. The future is obviously Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and two first round picks in this year’s draft. Then there’s Devin Harris, Raja Bell, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson whose contracts are all up after next season. The playoffs are probably out of reach this season but Director Kevin O’Connor has them set up masterfully for the future.

12. Sacramento Kings – Coach Paul Westphal really has his work cut out for him since passing is a dirty word to Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, Marcus Thornton, Francisco Garcia, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw, J.J. Hickson and DeMarcus Cousins. I just mentioned eight of their top ten players and unfortunately neither Jason Thompson nor Chuck Hayes is a point guard. They should be very fun to watch though in a they-might-fight-each-other-at-any-moment kind of way.

13. Phoenix Suns – Owner Robert Sarver has done an unbelievably good job of dismantling a perennial contender while wasting the end of Steve Nash’s career at the same time. If they really aren’t going to package Nash with one of their many bad contracts they deserve everything they get. Like two more seasons after this one of Marcin Gortat, Josh Childress, Channing Frye, Hakim Warrick and Jared Dudley. Yuck!

14. New Orleans Hornets – Apparently the NBA has four or five buyers lined up that will keep this franchise down on the Bayou and the deal will be done by March. Uh-huh, and I have a line on some beach front property in Nebraska if you are interested. This bunch has been painfully awful any time Chris Paul wasn’t running the show and I don’t expect the arrival of Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman to change that any.

15. Golden State Warriors – I give rookie coach Mark Jackson about a month before he wishes he was back calling games with Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy. Jackson keeps saying how the Warriors are going to be all about defense. The problem with that is their best defenders outside of starter Dorrell Wright are scrubs Kwame Brown and Dominic McGuire. Good luck with that.

Final Four – Oklahoma City, Dallas, San Antonio, Clippers

Western Finals – Oklahoma City, Dallas

NBA Finals – Miami, Oklahoma City

NBA Champion – Miami

If you’ve read this far you deserve a gambling tip; Go big on Chicago -4.5 on Christmas.

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