Second Round
I’ll take a 6-2 record in the first round for the third year in a row since the two series I missed on EVERYONE picked wrong. In retrospect both of those “upsets” shouldn’t really have surprised anyone since Atlanta won their season series with Orlando 3-1 and Memphis split with San Antonio 2-2.
EAST
Celtics at Heat
Miami – This is what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh joined forces for, to beat teams none of them could beat on their own as the unquestioned best player. For the Moheatos to succeed they must constantly push the tempo and use their athleticism to earn easy buckets in the open court. The Heat were the third best rebounding side in the league this season and the Celtics only 20th, so Miami needs to crash the glass and exploit their advantage there. Udonis Haslem (left foot) is said to be getting close to returning but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor if he does play.
Boston – Not many people are giving the Celtics a chance in this series and I’m not sure why. Paul Pierce does as good a job as anyone on LeBron, Kevin Garnett will shut down Bosh and Wade only averaged 12.8 points on 28.1% shooting (18.2% from 3) against the Cs this season. I think this series is why GM Danny Ainge acquired Jeff Green too. Green can give PP a breather from James and allows Boston to match up with Miami’s small-ball lineup. Shaquille O’Neal (right calf) is expected back for Game 2 and while that’s not a good thing defensively Shaq does help the Celtics when their offense stagnates.
The pick – The Heat have no answers for Rajon Rondo, Boston in 6.
Hawks at Bulls
Chicago – I know they looked shaky at times against Indiana but this is the number one defensive and rebounding team from the regular season, features the likely MVP and Coach of the Year and has home court advantage throughout the playoffs. All they lack is deep post season experience and they are about to get that. Carlos Boozer (right big toe) might be hobbled this series but he only put up 10 points on 35.8% shooting in round one. Not to mention that his backup, Taj Gibson, is a much better defender. I’m also pretty confident that Coach Tom Thibodeau can devise a scheme to contain the Hawks.
Atlanta – Kirk Hinrich (right hamstring) is doubtful for Game 1 and likely won’t be right for most of the series since an MRI revealed he has a “significant strain.” This is terrible news for the A.T.L. as Hinrich is easily their best option to defend Derrick Rose. Granted no one can stay in front of Rose but Kirk was his mentor for his first two years in Chicago so Hinrich has more knowledge than most on Derrick’s tendencies. Joe Johnson averaged 13.7 points and 39.1% shooting in three games against the Bulls this season and for the Hawks to have any chance he’ll have to do much, much better than that.
The pick – Chicago in 5.
WEST
Grizzlies at Thunder
Oklahoma City – They lost their season series with the Griz 3-1 but every game was played before Kendrick Perkins arrived. The addition of Perk gives the Thunder someone with the muscle to match Marc Gasol in the middle. However I do wonder if Serge Ibaka’s length and athleticism will be enough to bother Zach Randolph. If Z-Bo is able to bully I-block-a down low look for Coach Scott Brooks to give Nick Collison lots of burn. OKC was the slightly better rebounding team during the season (6th to 9th) but defensively they were a little worse (15th to 14th).
Memphis – Believe it or not the Griz match up very well with the Thunder’s best players. Ideally they can put Shane Battier on Kevin Durant, Tony Allen on Russell Westbrook and when one of them rests Sam Young is no slouch on D either. The duo of Randolph and Gasol has to continue their dominance of the high and low post but the key for Memphis will be the play of Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo. Conley has to make Westbrook work on defense and Mayo must equal James Harden’s output off the bench. Food for thought…imagine how dangerous the Griz would be if Rudy Gay (left shoulder) was healthy.
The pick – This should be a super entertaining series featuring two young clubs cutting their teeth against each other. I really want to pick Memphis to spring the upset here but I’ll go with home court instead. OKC in 7.
Mavericks at Lakers
Los Angeles – Kobe Bryant (left ankle) and Matt Barnes’ (right knee) health is a concern as was Pau Gasol’s lackluster production (13.5 points on 41.8% shooting & 6.8 rebounds) against New Orleans, but two Lakers in particular are picking up the slack. Andrew Bynum’s defense and rebounding have been consistent since the All-Star break but now his low post offense is on the verge of becoming something special. And while you would never know it by looking at the numbers, Ron Artest was arguably LA’s best player in round one. If the Lakers focus and play their game they should be fine.
Dallas – I’m not sure what matchup problems the Mavs cause the Lakers. They don’t have a super quick point guard nor do they run a ton of pick and rolls. Then there’s the question of who defends Kobe? DeShawn Stevenson will get first crack but he only averaged 12.7 minutes against Portland. Jason Terry is too small and Jason Kidd too slow so I think Coach Rick Carlisle’s best option might be Shawn Marion. Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood must contain Gasol, Bynum and Lamar Odom for Dallas to have any chance. In fact, Dirk may have to average 30+ points just for things to be competitive.
The pick – My boys should really win this series in 5 but they haven’t shown the desire to put forth that kind of consistent effort all season long, hence LA in 7.
EAST
Celtics at Heat
Miami – This is what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh joined forces for, to beat teams none of them could beat on their own as the unquestioned best player. For the Moheatos to succeed they must constantly push the tempo and use their athleticism to earn easy buckets in the open court. The Heat were the third best rebounding side in the league this season and the Celtics only 20th, so Miami needs to crash the glass and exploit their advantage there. Udonis Haslem (left foot) is said to be getting close to returning but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor if he does play.
Boston – Not many people are giving the Celtics a chance in this series and I’m not sure why. Paul Pierce does as good a job as anyone on LeBron, Kevin Garnett will shut down Bosh and Wade only averaged 12.8 points on 28.1% shooting (18.2% from 3) against the Cs this season. I think this series is why GM Danny Ainge acquired Jeff Green too. Green can give PP a breather from James and allows Boston to match up with Miami’s small-ball lineup. Shaquille O’Neal (right calf) is expected back for Game 2 and while that’s not a good thing defensively Shaq does help the Celtics when their offense stagnates.
The pick – The Heat have no answers for Rajon Rondo, Boston in 6.
Hawks at Bulls
Chicago – I know they looked shaky at times against Indiana but this is the number one defensive and rebounding team from the regular season, features the likely MVP and Coach of the Year and has home court advantage throughout the playoffs. All they lack is deep post season experience and they are about to get that. Carlos Boozer (right big toe) might be hobbled this series but he only put up 10 points on 35.8% shooting in round one. Not to mention that his backup, Taj Gibson, is a much better defender. I’m also pretty confident that Coach Tom Thibodeau can devise a scheme to contain the Hawks.
Atlanta – Kirk Hinrich (right hamstring) is doubtful for Game 1 and likely won’t be right for most of the series since an MRI revealed he has a “significant strain.” This is terrible news for the A.T.L. as Hinrich is easily their best option to defend Derrick Rose. Granted no one can stay in front of Rose but Kirk was his mentor for his first two years in Chicago so Hinrich has more knowledge than most on Derrick’s tendencies. Joe Johnson averaged 13.7 points and 39.1% shooting in three games against the Bulls this season and for the Hawks to have any chance he’ll have to do much, much better than that.
The pick – Chicago in 5.
WEST
Grizzlies at Thunder
Oklahoma City – They lost their season series with the Griz 3-1 but every game was played before Kendrick Perkins arrived. The addition of Perk gives the Thunder someone with the muscle to match Marc Gasol in the middle. However I do wonder if Serge Ibaka’s length and athleticism will be enough to bother Zach Randolph. If Z-Bo is able to bully I-block-a down low look for Coach Scott Brooks to give Nick Collison lots of burn. OKC was the slightly better rebounding team during the season (6th to 9th) but defensively they were a little worse (15th to 14th).
Memphis – Believe it or not the Griz match up very well with the Thunder’s best players. Ideally they can put Shane Battier on Kevin Durant, Tony Allen on Russell Westbrook and when one of them rests Sam Young is no slouch on D either. The duo of Randolph and Gasol has to continue their dominance of the high and low post but the key for Memphis will be the play of Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo. Conley has to make Westbrook work on defense and Mayo must equal James Harden’s output off the bench. Food for thought…imagine how dangerous the Griz would be if Rudy Gay (left shoulder) was healthy.
The pick – This should be a super entertaining series featuring two young clubs cutting their teeth against each other. I really want to pick Memphis to spring the upset here but I’ll go with home court instead. OKC in 7.
Mavericks at Lakers
Los Angeles – Kobe Bryant (left ankle) and Matt Barnes’ (right knee) health is a concern as was Pau Gasol’s lackluster production (13.5 points on 41.8% shooting & 6.8 rebounds) against New Orleans, but two Lakers in particular are picking up the slack. Andrew Bynum’s defense and rebounding have been consistent since the All-Star break but now his low post offense is on the verge of becoming something special. And while you would never know it by looking at the numbers, Ron Artest was arguably LA’s best player in round one. If the Lakers focus and play their game they should be fine.
Dallas – I’m not sure what matchup problems the Mavs cause the Lakers. They don’t have a super quick point guard nor do they run a ton of pick and rolls. Then there’s the question of who defends Kobe? DeShawn Stevenson will get first crack but he only averaged 12.7 minutes against Portland. Jason Terry is too small and Jason Kidd too slow so I think Coach Rick Carlisle’s best option might be Shawn Marion. Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood must contain Gasol, Bynum and Lamar Odom for Dallas to have any chance. In fact, Dirk may have to average 30+ points just for things to be competitive.
The pick – My boys should really win this series in 5 but they haven’t shown the desire to put forth that kind of consistent effort all season long, hence LA in 7.
posted by D$ at 6:42 PM
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