FIFA, USA & Quarters

> Before I get to the USA I have to comment on FIFA President Sepp Blatter. For some reason Blatter saw fit to apologize to both England and Mexico after the referees cost them good goals.

Excuse me?

Where was that when we were screwed not once, but twice? For us it was FIFA enjoys the human element and will not comment on blown calls. Now Sepp says “It would be nonsense to not reopen the file of technology.” Apparently when a blown call affects the English things have to change.

But as with all things FIFA they aren’t really going to address the problem. Their plan is to institute “goal-line technology” which would only deal with situations where the ball does or does not cross the goal line. To me that’s not even close to as big of a problem as on/off sides is. But Sepp doesn’t think so and said “With calls like in the Mexico game, we don't need technology.”

Oh really?

So the plan is to have replay for a scenario that rarely occurs and ignore the situation that happens all the time? Um…ok…if you say so. The solution to this dilemma is so simple I can’t even believe it’s never been broached. Just adopt the NHL model and replay every single solitary goal.

When a goal is scored in soccer there is always at least a minute break in the action while the players celebrate and the ball is placed back at midfield. In that minute 90% of replays could be done with no interruption at all since most goals are obviously good.

For the 10% that require a further look soccer already has the perfect system in place…its called injury time. If you need 10 minutes to look at the replay to determine off sides, hand ball or foul/non-foul just add 10 minutes of injury time. And while a 10 minute delay would certainly disrupt the flow of the game, no one is going to complain as long as the correct call is made.

So there you have it Mr. Blatter, I’ve solved your problem and all it will require is an extra ref or two upstairs to review the replays. No extra cameras, micro chipped balls or infrared beams. Just common sense, which I guess is in short supply at FIFA headquarters in Switzerland.

> As for the USA-Ghana match we looked tired right from the start and were out hustled for the majority of the first half. We were semi-sharp right up until we conceded another early goal (5th minute). After that tally we looked shell-shocked until about the final 8 minutes of the first half where we started to turn it on again.

In the second half we looked like our normal back to the wall selves, being aggressive and making plays all over the pitch. Then after we equalized in the 62nd minute we started to coast again and it looked for all the world to me like we were just playing for extra time.

Then when we gave up the early goal to Asamoah Gyan in extra time (a tremendous strike in the 93rd minute) we just flat out didn’t have the legs to come back again. And therein lied the problem with this team; playing from behind all the time wears you out in a tournament setting. Some of that is obviously on the refs, such as Clint Dempsey’s disallowed goal in the 21st minute against Algeria. If that one is called good (like it should have been) we can sit back and play defense the rest of the match. But against Slovenia we had no excuse, and in both instances we had to push and push to get a result and it left us dead-legged against Ghana.

I’ve generally been very complementary of Yank manager Bob Bradley, but against the Black Stars he made a major mistake starting Ricardo Clark. Clark was mostly responsible for the first goal giving the ball away at midfield and starting a counterattack. However keeper Tim Howard was also inexplicably caught out of position and definitely should have made that save.

There has been a lot of talk about how we got zero goals from our forwards, which leads me to the other big mistake Bradley made; sticking with Robbie Findley as a starter for every match he was available. Findley’s finishing touch is non-existent and Edson Buddle or Herculez Gomez offered a little more finishing polish. Big picture wise I think Jozy Altidore played very well (he set up 2 of our 5 goals) but he just had no help up top. This is where we REALLY missed Charlie Davies (car accident). Davies has Findley’s speed and a better finishing touch than Altidore. (Oh well, I guess I could mention Giuseppe Rossi here too, but I won’t).

The bottom line is we should have won that match. No ifs ands or buts about it. We dropped from 13th to 19th in the SPI and blew a golden opportunity to make it to the semifinals. But the biggest shame of all is that the team had a chance to hold the entire country’s collective attention for another six to ten days and let it slip right through their fingers.

> As for the future of USA soccer on the road to the “Brazil Invitational” in 2014 we are in decent shape but do have some questions. First is manager. If Bradley wants to be back, I’m fine with that, but I also wouldn’t mind a big international name like Jurgen Klinsmann (Germany) or Ruud Gullit (Holland). In fact we might benefit from a foreign voice/view.

The biggest unknown has to be defense where our three best players (Carlos Bocanegra, Steve Cherundolo & Jay DeMerit) will all be 35…or too old for the World Cup. Oguchi Onyewu and Clarence Goodson will be 32, which is borderline. That leaves the Jonathan’s (Spector, 28 & Bornstein, 29) as the only two guys from this roster who will be in their prime in 2014…uh-oh.

We will be fine in the midfield as Michael Bradley (27), Maurice Edu (28), Dempsey (31) and Landon Donovan (32) should all be ok for 2014. Even better is that Benny Feilhaber (29), Stuart Holden (29) and José Torres (26) will still be in the mix too.

Forward is a different story though. While Altidore (24) will certainly be back his running mate will still be a question. Findley (29) and Davies (28) will have their chances but Robbie has to improve a lot and Charlie may never regain his form. Who knows, maybe Freddy Adu (25) will be ready by then. As for goalie Tim Howard’s (35) spot is secure if he still wants it at that point.

> Quarterfinals…(SPI rank precedes)

4. Holland v 1. Brazil – I’m not sure the Dutch defense is stout enough to contain Kaka and company for a full 90, but I’m going with an upset here; Oranje 2-1 in extra time.

6. Uruguay v 30. Ghana – Diego Forlan and La Celeste show the USA how it’s done sending the Black Stars home 2-0.

2. Argentina v 5. Germany – There is bad blood between these two sides, and some serious cumulative talent as well, which should make for a very entertaining and intense match. I think the difference will be the defense of Die Mannschaft; Germany 2-1.

18. Paraguay v 3. Spain – David Villa and company will be too much for Paraguay to handle; La Furia Roja 3-0.

Algeria, Ghana & Draw

> What was most impressive about the USA’s 1-0 victory over Algeria was that we never gave up. Even though we flubbed multiple chances to score, and had another good goal stolen from us, we played until the very end and it paid off. The sheer emotional release when Landon Donovan scored in the 90+1 minute is something I’ll never forget as long as I live. Overall I’d say we were the best side in Group C and that we deserved to sit atop the final table. For the record this is the first time since 1930, and only the second time overall, that the Yanks have won their group.

The most encouraging thing to me thus far has been how well our stars have played. Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley (MB), Clint Dempsey and Donovan are all in top form right now. This has made our offense very dangerous as we are creating loads of scoring chances every game. And being that we are not converting them at a high rate I think we are due to explode for a 3 or 4 goal game here soon.

Carlos Bocanegra and Jay DeMerit were huge in the back against the Desert Foxes. After a little bit of a shaky start they closed the middle down into an impenetrable brick wall. Tim Howard has also been good for us, albeit not great or fantastic since the England match. He’s made some good quality saves, but nothing miraculous...yet.

> We will have plenty of motivation for our second round tilt against Ghana (6/26 at 11:30 AM Pacific on ABC) since they knocked us out in the third game of the group stage in 2006. That particular match sticks in the USA’s craw because of what else, a referee’s decision. German ref Markus Merk made a horrendous call on Oguchi Onyewu in the box (it was a total dive), which led to a penalty kick for Ghana in first half injury time (45+2). Needless to say we lost 2-1 and were eliminated.

The Black Stars are a very fast side that likes to get up and down the pitch. Our defense will be tested for sure, but we will also be able to stay home more and keep our shape better since we won’t have to push forward constantly like we did against Algeria. Still our boys on the back line will have to mark up and communicate so they don’t get caught out of position on a quick counterattack. We will certainly have our chances to score as long as we are aggressive, but two things do worry me.

First, Ghana is the only African team left in the tournament, meaning all the “neutrals” will be rooting for them. I know the US contingent of fans is one of the biggest that traveled to South Africa but I don’t think their lungs can compete with the home continent factor. With only two off days between the end of the first and beginning of the second round my next concern is fatigue. We are generally considered to be one of the more fit sides around but we looked to be tiring considerably at the end of the last game (good thing Algeria was EXHAUSTED).

> After putting up a clean sheet against Les Fennecs (first time in 10 matches…sorry Guch) I’d say ¾ of our defense has to be set in stone; Boca and DeMerit in the middle with Steve Cherundolo on the right. The only question, as always with Team USA, is who plays left back? Jonathan Bornstein was ok and didn’t kill us last game, but he scares me big time against a side as quick as the Black Stars. I’d prefer Bob Bradley (BB) started DaMarcus Beasley instead. While Beas really isn’t a “true” defender he is faster and more dangerous going forward than Bornstein is. Probably wishful thinking on my part here as I’m sure BB will give Jonathan the call.

Who should take the spot up top running with Jozy is still really unclear in my mind, even at this point of the tournament. Herculez Gomez looked good in the first half against Algeria but was supposedly “knackered” after 45 minutes. Edson Buddle also did well looking dangerous in his 26 minutes and Robbie Findley will be available to play once again. Gomez and Buddle are goal poachers of the highest order and Findley has some serious jets, but to me all three guys have the same problem, they don’t make the right play under pressure in tight spaces. So I’ll leave it to BB to pick between Herculez/Edson to start and I still prefer Robbie coming in as a late substitute.

The midfield is set in my mind with Maurice Edu solidifying his spot as the “other guy” along side MB, Dempsey and Donovan. If needed I’d continue to use Benny Feilhaber as the main sub and possibly consider Stuart Holden for that role as well.

> The soccer gods haven’t been kind to the Yanks on the field costing us two perfectly good goals. But as far as the draw goes, we have been very fortunate both in the group stage and now in the knockout round. Our quadrant of the tournament is set up so that we will not be huge underdogs no matter who we play.

SPI Rank
7. Uruguay
13. USA
17. South Korea
33. Ghana

What this means is that to win the Cup we potentially only have to win two games as massive underdogs. In my mind the semifinals are a real possibility at this point, and as proud as I currently am of our boys, I will be extremely disappointed if we don’t beat the Black Stars. If we are lucky enough to make it to the semis we will face one of…

SPI Rank
1. Brazil
4. Holland
9. Chile
49. Slovakia

…and we are good enough to beat any side on a given day!

Slovenia, Algeria & Overall

> Team USA’s game against Slovenia got off to an awful start, which honestly, is almost to be expected for the Yanks at this point. And unfortunately Oguchi Onyewu’s fingerprints were all over both goals. On Valter Birsa’s strike in the 13th minute Guch was actually backpedaling as Birsa moved into space right in front of him. Why Guch didn’t charge him and close down some of the open space is beyond me.

Guch’s mistake on the second goal was even more inexcusable. With the rest of the defense in a perfect line Guch was caught a step out of position on the Green Dragon’s counterattack thus making Zlatan Ljubijankic onsides rather than off.

US keeper Tim Howard was caught totally flat footed and off his line on the first goal…really nothing he could do. On the second score I believe Howard could have done better and come up with one of those miraculous saves he has spoiled us all with.

> The second half comeback was great, some of the most riveting soccer I have seen in my days of watching the good ole USA. The most encouraging thing to me was that our stars played well. Landon Donovan was all over the pitch and his service on set pieces was excellent. Michael Bradley (MB) played one of the best matches I’ve ever seen him play. He defended, he came forward and of course he scored. And finally Jozy Altidore mixed playing physical and holding the ball with being a dangerous scoring threat. His knock down header to set up Bradley was sublime.

While there’s no doubt the players worked their tails off, much of the credit has to go to coach Bob Bradley (BB) because the subs he made in the second half all paid off. Starting Jose Torres in the midfield was obviously a mistake (which is why I don’t coach soccer) and Robbie Findley just flat out doesn’t have the instincts needed to consistently make the right plays at this level (tends to hold the ball too long).

After some early jitters Maurice Edu looked very good both defending and coming forward. He seems to have a good chemistry with MB about how to work as a tandem in the middle. Benny Feilhaber (not a fan) didn’t do anything that killed us, so I take that as a positive. Even late sub Herculez Gomez made a difference as his diagonal run across the box opened up the space MB needed to tie the game.

> Now on to referee Koman Coulibaly of Mali. When I first heard his name during the pre-match I thought to myself “That has got to be the first African ref I’ve ever heard of, and from Mali of all places, wow.” I’ll get to the non-goal in a second, but lost in the shuffle is the yellow card he gave Findley for getting hit in the face with the ball. So not only is Robbie suspended for the next match but the whistle blew while the ball was loose on the ground in the 6-yard box. So prior to the horrendous call he made a terrible call that cost us a player and possibly the equalizer (score would have been 1-1).

I’ve watched the slow-motion replay of what happened in the 85th minute about 50 times at least and here’s what I see. Carlos Bocanegra getting straight up taken down (which is a penalty kick). MB unable to move because he’s being bear hugged. Not a single US player even close to being offside and a good, clean, fair game winner by Edu. The best explanation I’ve heard is that Coulibaly felt he shouldn’t have called the foul on Altidore that led to the free kick. So in an NBA-style “make up call” he decided to blow the whistle and make things right in his own mind. In real time you can actually see him blow his whistle almost at the kick of the ball and he also does not point, gesture, whatever as to what he is calling on the spot.

> Yes we were robbed, but it’s time to get over that, move on and focus on advancing to the second round. Our mental approach to the Algeria match (6/23 at 7 AM Pacific on ESPN) can’t be one that lets Coulibaly beat us twice. Instead we have to focus on starting the game better and not conceding the first goal so quickly (for a change). The Desert Foxes have a lot of quickness along the flanks and like to play a wide open style, so we will certainly get our chances.

> Determining the staring 11 for the final match of group play is where BB will really earn his money. As much as I love the guy for all he’s done for USA soccer Guch has to be dropped. He’s been at least partly responsible for all three goals and the World Cup is not the time to be patient while he plays himself back into shape. As far as I see it BB has 3 choices; Replace Guch with Clarence Goodson and be done with it. Move Boca into the middle and play DeMarcus Beasley on the left (do not mention the name Jonathan Bornstein to me). Or gamble and possibly give Edu a try in the middle next to Jay DeMerit. If I’m BB I’m not willing to risk advancing on Guch’s match fitness.

Being without Findley for a game really doesn’t bother me. I’d much rather have a more seasoned player running up top with Jozy. My first choice would be Gomez followed by Edson Buddle. Herculez is just too opportunistic and crafty to leave on the bench all game long when we are going to need goals. It’s also possible that BB moves Clint Dempsey up top along side Altidore freeing up another midfield spot.

The “other” midfielder to play with MB, Donovan and Dempsey has been tricky to say the least. I’d like to see Edu in there and if Clint moves up top maybe give Stuart Holden a try as well. After his fine halftime substitutions against Slovenia I trust that BB knows what his squad needs where to beat Algeria way more than I do.

> The Yanks can advance to the knockout stage three ways; Beat the Desert Foxes outright. Tie Algeria and England loses. Tie Les Fennecs and England ties but does not outscore us by 2+ goals.

Big picture alert: If you would have told me before the Cup that if we beat Algeria we advance AND possibly win our group I’d have taken it in a HEARTBEAT. Any member of Sam’s Army would have said the same, and if we play like we did in the second half of the Slovenia match we should be just fine.

> From 6/22-25 is where the real business starts and ends. Four teams per day will move on to the second round and four teams will head home. Brazil still looks like the side to beat. Spain may not be scoring a lot but they are very dangerous. Holland is kind of flying under the radar, which is probably good for them. South America has been the real story though with Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil and Chile all leading their groups (5 of the 8 groups overall).

> Any red-blooded American has to love what is happening to France right now. First manager Raymond Domenech kicks star striker Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea) off the team for a heated exchange between the two at halftime of France's loss to Mexico. Then the whole squad decides not to train on Sunday to show their displeasure with Domenech’s decision. Needless to say Les Bleus are the laughing stock of the international soccer world right now…and rightly so.

Somewhere Irish eyes are smiling…

England, Slovenia & Early Impressions

> My general feeling about Team USA was that they played well against England. We had our chances to win…and lose for that matter…but we played hard and smart all match long. So overall I was very happy with the result.

As for the “Hand of Clod” goal net minder Robert Green let slip past him, yes it was weak, soft, whatever. That said a goal keeping gaffe was not to be unexpected since Three Lions manager Fabio Capello had trouble deciding on a starting goalie in the first place. Most managers like to keep their starting lineups secret until right before kick off, but usually goalie is one of the known positions rather than one of the unknowns.

> The Slovenia game on 6/18 at 7 AM Pacific (ESPN) is a virtual do-or-die for the USA since the Green Dragons sit atop Group C after beating Algeria. If Slovenia wins they are guaranteed a spot in the knockout round and we are probably eliminated (unless England chokes). So it’s imperative that we not have a mental let down against the highly organized defense and dangerous counterattack the Slovenians possess.

If this match wasn’t already big enough for both sides Slovenia midfielder Andrej Komac decided to ratchet things up a notch or two with these quotes.

“We are going to win this match. We are playing our style of football, and we'll continue with that, and we can beat the US with that style.”

Not exactly incendiary comments, but not proper remarks for international soccer either. As you can imagine some of USA’s leaders took exception to what Komac had to say.

Tim Howard…

“I think talk is cheap. He's got to stand toe to toe. And they've got to stand toe to toe with us for 90 minutes. And if he's still standing, then I'll take my hat off to him. But a lot of boxers talk, too, and they're looking up at the lights. And the next thing they know, they're trying to figure out how they got there. That means nothing to us. We know that they're probably feeling confident after getting the three points, and rightfully so.”

Oguchi Onyewu…

“It's definitely a premature comment to make. I don't think a US player would make a comment like that.”

At this level giving your opponent extra motivation is not wise, which I’m sure is something Green Dragon manager Matjaz Kek has explained to the rest of his team by now.

As for the lineup Team USA should use I’d go with the exact same defense. Other than Guch being caught out of position on Steven Gerrard’s goal, the unit of Carlos Bocanegra, Jay DeMerit, Steve Cherundolo and Guch performed about as good as could be hoped for against England. They aren’t likely to be tested near as much versus Slovenia, but they must be mindful not to get caught out of position when the Green Dragons counterattack.

Since Slovenia is likely to pack in their defense and force us to take chances to score I’d like to see Jose Torres get the start over Ricardo Clark. I may still be a little upset at Clark for getting burnt like toast on Gerrard’s goal, but I really think Torres’ creative passing ability will be useful to get us the three points we need here.

Up front I’d like to see Edson Buddle paired with Jozy Altidore, at least to start with. I know Robbie Findley is very dangerous, but I don’t think he’ll see the space he needs to make things happen. Not to mention that a poor decision by Robbie (he had a few against England) could lead to a counterattack. Buddle is more of a target man like Jozy which I think we’ll need in a slow down type of game. I still want Findley to play, just as a substitute around the 60th-70th minute when his speed could catch a tired player off guard.

Howard’s ribs should be fine for the game….

“It's a really bad kick, and so in the next few days, if I have to go full stretch, which hopefully I don't, and end up landing on it too hard, then it might set me back. But we've got plenty of padding and plenty of ideas on how to stop that. I won't be stupid with it; at least I don't think I will be. It's sore. I believe in, as I said before, in adrenaline being the great equalizer. You can't account for that. You get on the field and your mind is focused on the game. It takes away from the pain and listen, we've got plenty of pain meds and injections and all that type of stuff, which will help keep my mind of it, as well. I'm kind of looking forward to those injections.”

If we can get three points out of this match we are in very good shape going forward. Even with another draw all hope won’t be lost. Keep in mind that style points do not play a factor in the final results at the World Cup.

> The dreaded Jabulani ball hasn’t really swerved to fool keepers like the designers had hoped. What I have seen is that long balls tend to sail and always explode away from players off the first bounce.

> With the first round of games complete for each group the best two sides I have seen so far are Germany and Brazil. What has been surprising to me is just how evenly matched most teams are, which I think is what you’d like to see at this level. Most games are decided by which side commits a crucial mistake.

USA World Cup Preview

As long time readers know once every four years the NBA-Jam blog steps out of its comfort zone to cover the World Cup. Now I’m not a soccer expert by any means. I never played the game and I don’t watch it a lot. However, I do follow our National Team VERY closely and consider myself a member of Sam’s Army. World Cup qualifying for Team USA ran from 6/15/08 to 10/14/09 and included 18 games. Of those 18 I only missed about one and a half, so I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the red, white and blue.

US soccer normally consists of a strong goalie, solid defense, shaky midfield play and no goal scoring. Well this version almost comes from the Bizarro World. Yes we still have a strong goalie, but our defense is very shaky, our midfield is solid and we actually have a bunch of guys that can put the biscuit in the basket for once.

ROSTER

(Club teams in parenthesis)

Goalies

Tim Howard (Everton, England) – Super athletic and smart he makes up for a lot of the mistakes that our back line commits. Without him we are toast.

Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, England) & Marcus Hahnemann (Wolverhampton, England) – It’s not like these guys are bad, but if they are playing we are in trouble.

Defenders

Carlos Bocanegra (Rennes, France) – Our Captain can play central defense if need be, but his best position for the team in this tournament is left back.

Jonathan Bornstein (Chivas USA) – Turnover prone and weak with ball. The only way he should see the field is if we have multiple injuries.

Steve Cherundolo (Hannover, Germany) – Never been a big fan of his, but with the way the rest of our D has performed lately he almost has to play right back.

Jay DeMerit (Watford, England) – He’s solid overall but his form hasn’t been up to snuff in the run up to the Cup friendly’s.

Clarence Goodson (IK Start, Norway) – He has come out of nowhere in terms of the National Team. He’s very tall which is key on set pieces. I’d start him in the middle.

Oguchi Onyewu (AC Milan, Italy) – Guch is one of our best players…when healthy. The problem is I don’t think he is. He hasn’t played a full 90 minutes since he ruptured the patellar tendon in his left knee on 10/14/09. If fit he is a no brainer to start along side Goodson in the middle.

Jonathan Spector (West Ham, England) – Much like DeMerit he’s pretty solid but the problem is he hasn’t even been as good as Jay lately.

Midfielders

DaMarcus Beasley (Glasgow Rangers, Scotland) – One of my all time faves, he’s likely relegated to a situational substitute role in his third World Cup.

Michael Bradley (Borussia Moenchengladbach, Germany) – The coach’s son is an integral piece to our midfield game. He can possess the ball in traffic, makes smart passes and is a heck of a tenacious defender.

Ricardo Clark (Eintracht Frankfurt, Germany) – To my eyes he disappears a lot and almost avoids the ball. His main role is defense and he will likely start against England.

Clint Dempsey (Fulham, England) – Has a tendency to run hot and cold, but when he’s locked in he’s super creative and very dangerous in scoring situations.

Landon Donovan (Los Angeles) – In great form right now. Can run all day, hustles all over the place and is our best passer with ease. Has a lot to prove after his 2006 debacle.

Maurice Edu (Glasgow Rangers, Scotland) – I like him but I’m not sure he’s good enough to earn minutes with all the depth at his position.

Benny Feilhaber (AGF Aarhus, Denmark) – He’s weak with ball and I’m not really sure what he does well on the International level. Should not see the light of day.

Stuart Holden (Bolton, England) – He’s really coming into his own. Smart with ball and doesn’t make many mistakes. A possible starter or reserve.

Jose Torres (Pachuca, Mexico) – He always makes things happen with his hustle and creative passing. Is much stronger with the ball than he used to be. I’d start him, but if we are behind in the second half he HAS to play as a sub.

Forwards

Jozy Altidore (Hull, England) – Sprained his right ankle in training but *should* be fine by 6/12. Has the strength to hold the ball in tight spots, the speed to break away and a nice finishing touch. Our best striker and he’s only 20 years old.

Edson Buddle (Los Angeles) – This guy leads the MLS in goals scored and tallied two against Australia in our final tune up. Scorching hot right now.

Robbie Findley (Salt Lake) – Was a little surprised he made the team at first but his blinding speed is something we need. He has the athleticism to get himself into space but his first touch is lacking something fierce. He’s both dangerous and a questionable decision maker at the same time due to his lack of top level international experience.

Herculez Gomez (Puebla, Mexico) – He led the Mexican league in goals scored this season (the first American to do so in a top foreign league) and had one in the Czech Republic game and one more against Australia. Another guy who’s on fire right now.

STARTING 11

Coach Bob Bradley (BB) likes to use the 4-4-2 formation and outside of the defense has only two tough decisions to make. Obviously Howard, Bradley, Dempsey, Donovan and Altidore are locks. The question comes down to Clark/Holden/Torres for the last midfield spot and Buddle/Findley/Gomez up top with Jozy. (Never would have thought we'd have so many strikers playing well at the same time.)

Right now I’d go with Buddle & Altidore up front saving Findley’s speed and Gomez’s knack for being in the right place at the right time as subs. I’d go with Torres in the midfield without hesitation because of his ability to make things happen. But something tells me BB doesn’t share my view and we’re likely to see Clark or Holden instead because they are more steady and defensive oriented.

Saying our defense is in disarray right now might be kind. Bocanegra is the only definite starter, but where he plays is still up in the air. Goodson is short on big time experience but his form is the best of the rest outside of maybe Cherundolo at the moment. If just one of either Spector or DeMerit could get out of their own way right now I’d feel a lot better. But as is I almost prefer having a less than 100% Guch out there instead of those two. I honestly have no idea who BB will play, but I’d go with Boca/Goodson/Guch/Dolo if forced to choose.

GROUP C

(SPI rank in front of country, USA is #15)

3. England – This is the game everyone is talking about since the last time we played these guys in the World Cup (1950) we beat them 1-0 in what has since become known as the “Miracle on Grass.” Our D is going to be severely tested by the likes of Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. But there is a MASSIVE amount of pressure on these guys back home and while they have loads of talent their chemistry isn’t the best.

34. Slovenia – Everything I read about this squad says they are a disciplined team that packs in their defense and looks to counter attack. Exactly the type of team we usually struggle against.

65. Algeria – They will be without their best player, Mourad Meghni, due to patella tendonitis in his left knee. Like a lot of African teams they are up and down. They are just as likely to score a flurry of goals as they are to give up a bunch in a hurry.

PREDICTIONS

6/12 – Since we tend to play well as underdogs and never give up when behind something tells me we will get a result against the Brits. While I’m not ruling out an outright upset I see us getting a late equalizer and a draw here.

6/18 – Coming off the high of the previous game I see us slipping up and Slovenia getting a 1-0 win.

6/23 – Needing a win and a lot of goals to advance out of the group I think we get it done against Algeria 3-0.

If we don’t move on to the knock out stage I will be extremely disappointed. With the group we are in we should have no problem finishing second to England. If we do move on our likely opponent in the second round will be Germany, who we still owe from 2002 when we outplayed them and lost 1-0 in the Quarterfinals. From there who knows, but it wouldn’t shock me if we made it to the Quarters again or even…gasp…the Semis. Any more than that is probably asking too much, but hey, that’s why they play the games!

Finals

While my 10-4 record in the playoffs might not be the best, the fact that I picked Lakers-Celtics back in October has me feeling pretty good about my prognostication skills for this season all things considered.

Before I move on there are some relevant numbers I need to pass on from the NBA’s most storied rivalry. This will be the 12th time these two franchises have met with all the chips on the table. Unfortunately Boston’s record is 9-2 in the previous 11. (Jerry West and Elgin Baylor just cursed my name for bringing that up.) This is also the first time in 23 years that the preceding two NBA Champions will be playing each other in the Finals.

Now, on to business…

Los Angeles – The number one thing the Lakers have to do to be successful is slow down/limit Rajon Rondo’s penetration. I know Derek Fisher is a convenient punching bag, but the guy has faced Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams and Steve Nash in succession this post season and only needed help with Westbrook. Since Rondo (back) is not 100% it’s possible, albeit unlikely, that Fish can handle him on his own. If Fisher is getting eaten alive I expect Sasha Vujacic and Shannon Brown will get their chances as well before Kobe Bryant has to take over. I didn’t forget to mention Jordan Farmar, who is shooting 45% from three in the playoffs and is just generally playing well, because his olé style D will not slow Rajon down in the least.

The next key for LA is how Pau Gasol plays. In the 2008 Finals he was straight up manhandled by Kevin Garnett from the opening tip. KG got physical with Gasol, pushing him off his spots and incessantly woofing him, and Pau shrunk up like turtle going back into his shell. Hence the origin of his unflattering nickname…GaSOFT. Well fast forward to 2010 and Garnett (right knee) can’t move laterally like he used to. Gasol must take advantage of this by facing KG up in the mid-post area and putting the ball on the floor to get by him. The Big Mouth…err…Ticket also can’t “second jump” anymore. What this means is that Pau and the rest of the Laker bigs need to play some volleyball on the offensive glass.

If Andrew Bynum (right knee) were healthy I don’t think this would be much of a series. As is Drew can still make a difference by playing tough, being a threat offensively, hitting the boards and being an active last line of defense. It would also be nice if he could draw a technical foul on Kendrick Perkins (leading to Perk being suspended for one game).

Boston – The problem for the Celtics is simple…who guards Kobe Bryant? Ray Allen, Michael Finley and Marquis Daniels have no chance because Kobe is playing his best ball since he broke his right index finger on 12/11. The best option for Boston is probably Tony Allen, but Allen (right ankle) is not healthy which makes that a dicey proposition at best. This leaves Paul Pierce, who only averaged 13.5 points a game on 34.5% shooting when guarding LeBron James in the second round. Something tells me that double duty probably isn’t wise for the aging PP if the C’s are to win. Kobe’s just such a willing passer these days, trusting his teammates more than ever, and when his jumper is falling there’s really nothing anyone can do. It will take all of assistant coach Tom Thibodeau’s genius to slow the Mamba down.

The biggest change for either team since 2008 has to be the addition of Ron Artest. You can pretty much guarantee Ronnie’s offense will be up and down all series and that he’ll have one terrible game and one great game along the way. Where Artest will be VERY consistent though is in his defending of Pierce. I expect Ron to be in Paul’s shorts…almost literally…from the opening tip to the final whistle every single game. The question then becomes how does PP deal with it? Something tells me these two are headed for a scuffle, or at the very least a shoving match. And if they both get thrown out and/or suspended…advantage Lakers. With the job Ron-Ron did on the league’s leading scorer (held Kevin Durant to 35% from the field and 20.6% from three down from his season averages of 47.6% & 36.5% respectively) I’d be very worried if I was a Boston fan.

Another concern for the Celtics has to be their reserve big men. Rasheed Wallace (back) isn’t right and Glen Davis is just too short. If LA has done one thing consistently well this post season it’s punish smaller/weaker players down low. So while Big Baby might out hustle them at times, he has no chance to defend Drew or Pau on the low block. Likewise, Sheed and Baby are too slow to contend with Lamar Odom off the dribble. That said whoever wins the individual Wallace-Odom battle nightly could swing the series.

The pick – The Lakers haven’t lost at home all playoffs and have closed out their last five series’ (Denver, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Utah, Phoenix) on the road. Boston finished the season tied for the second best road record (26-15) in the league but only went 24-17 (tied for 15th) at home. Something has to give here.

The C’s have a penchant for giving up big leads in the 4th quarter and will almost certainly get blown out of one game. On the other hand LA has a tendency to hang around all game (as long as their bench doesn’t blow it) and pull out wins at the end. If I live in Beantown I'm concerned about my boys being able to consistently score enough points to stay in games.

Contrary to popular belief this series is going to be ugly and defensive oriented on both sides. Don’t let the Suns series fool you; the Lakers know how to play some serious defense. During the regular season LA was 5th (44.6%) in defensive field goal percentage and Boston was 10th (45.1%). During the playoffs the Lakers are 2nd (43.7%) and the Celtics 3rd (43.8%). The biggest statistical differences I could find were rebounding and turnovers. LA was 7th in rebounding and 6th in turnovers committed during the season and Boston was 25th and 21st respectively. In a series that figures to be this close an extra offensive rebound or unforced turnover could make all the difference.

This Laker group is completely prepared for the Celtics physical and intimidating style and LA has no problem playing slow down grind it out ball either. Also not to be overlooked is the revenge factor for the Lakers. Boston wanted it more last time around and that will not happen again. LA in 7.