Finals
While my 10-4 record in the playoffs might not be the best, the fact that I picked Lakers-Celtics back in October has me feeling pretty good about my prognostication skills for this season all things considered.
Before I move on there are some relevant numbers I need to pass on from the NBA’s most storied rivalry. This will be the 12th time these two franchises have met with all the chips on the table. Unfortunately Boston’s record is 9-2 in the previous 11. (Jerry West and Elgin Baylor just cursed my name for bringing that up.) This is also the first time in 23 years that the preceding two NBA Champions will be playing each other in the Finals.
Now, on to business…
Los Angeles – The number one thing the Lakers have to do to be successful is slow down/limit Rajon Rondo’s penetration. I know Derek Fisher is a convenient punching bag, but the guy has faced Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams and Steve Nash in succession this post season and only needed help with Westbrook. Since Rondo (back) is not 100% it’s possible, albeit unlikely, that Fish can handle him on his own. If Fisher is getting eaten alive I expect Sasha Vujacic and Shannon Brown will get their chances as well before Kobe Bryant has to take over. I didn’t forget to mention Jordan Farmar, who is shooting 45% from three in the playoffs and is just generally playing well, because his olé style D will not slow Rajon down in the least.
The next key for LA is how Pau Gasol plays. In the 2008 Finals he was straight up manhandled by Kevin Garnett from the opening tip. KG got physical with Gasol, pushing him off his spots and incessantly woofing him, and Pau shrunk up like turtle going back into his shell. Hence the origin of his unflattering nickname…GaSOFT. Well fast forward to 2010 and Garnett (right knee) can’t move laterally like he used to. Gasol must take advantage of this by facing KG up in the mid-post area and putting the ball on the floor to get by him. The Big Mouth…err…Ticket also can’t “second jump” anymore. What this means is that Pau and the rest of the Laker bigs need to play some volleyball on the offensive glass.
If Andrew Bynum (right knee) were healthy I don’t think this would be much of a series. As is Drew can still make a difference by playing tough, being a threat offensively, hitting the boards and being an active last line of defense. It would also be nice if he could draw a technical foul on Kendrick Perkins (leading to Perk being suspended for one game).
Boston – The problem for the Celtics is simple…who guards Kobe Bryant? Ray Allen, Michael Finley and Marquis Daniels have no chance because Kobe is playing his best ball since he broke his right index finger on 12/11. The best option for Boston is probably Tony Allen, but Allen (right ankle) is not healthy which makes that a dicey proposition at best. This leaves Paul Pierce, who only averaged 13.5 points a game on 34.5% shooting when guarding LeBron James in the second round. Something tells me that double duty probably isn’t wise for the aging PP if the C’s are to win. Kobe’s just such a willing passer these days, trusting his teammates more than ever, and when his jumper is falling there’s really nothing anyone can do. It will take all of assistant coach Tom Thibodeau’s genius to slow the Mamba down.
The biggest change for either team since 2008 has to be the addition of Ron Artest. You can pretty much guarantee Ronnie’s offense will be up and down all series and that he’ll have one terrible game and one great game along the way. Where Artest will be VERY consistent though is in his defending of Pierce. I expect Ron to be in Paul’s shorts…almost literally…from the opening tip to the final whistle every single game. The question then becomes how does PP deal with it? Something tells me these two are headed for a scuffle, or at the very least a shoving match. And if they both get thrown out and/or suspended…advantage Lakers. With the job Ron-Ron did on the league’s leading scorer (held Kevin Durant to 35% from the field and 20.6% from three down from his season averages of 47.6% & 36.5% respectively) I’d be very worried if I was a Boston fan.
Another concern for the Celtics has to be their reserve big men. Rasheed Wallace (back) isn’t right and Glen Davis is just too short. If LA has done one thing consistently well this post season it’s punish smaller/weaker players down low. So while Big Baby might out hustle them at times, he has no chance to defend Drew or Pau on the low block. Likewise, Sheed and Baby are too slow to contend with Lamar Odom off the dribble. That said whoever wins the individual Wallace-Odom battle nightly could swing the series.
The pick – The Lakers haven’t lost at home all playoffs and have closed out their last five series’ (Denver, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Utah, Phoenix) on the road. Boston finished the season tied for the second best road record (26-15) in the league but only went 24-17 (tied for 15th) at home. Something has to give here.
The C’s have a penchant for giving up big leads in the 4th quarter and will almost certainly get blown out of one game. On the other hand LA has a tendency to hang around all game (as long as their bench doesn’t blow it) and pull out wins at the end. If I live in Beantown I'm concerned about my boys being able to consistently score enough points to stay in games.
Contrary to popular belief this series is going to be ugly and defensive oriented on both sides. Don’t let the Suns series fool you; the Lakers know how to play some serious defense. During the regular season LA was 5th (44.6%) in defensive field goal percentage and Boston was 10th (45.1%). During the playoffs the Lakers are 2nd (43.7%) and the Celtics 3rd (43.8%). The biggest statistical differences I could find were rebounding and turnovers. LA was 7th in rebounding and 6th in turnovers committed during the season and Boston was 25th and 21st respectively. In a series that figures to be this close an extra offensive rebound or unforced turnover could make all the difference.
This Laker group is completely prepared for the Celtics physical and intimidating style and LA has no problem playing slow down grind it out ball either. Also not to be overlooked is the revenge factor for the Lakers. Boston wanted it more last time around and that will not happen again. LA in 7.
Before I move on there are some relevant numbers I need to pass on from the NBA’s most storied rivalry. This will be the 12th time these two franchises have met with all the chips on the table. Unfortunately Boston’s record is 9-2 in the previous 11. (Jerry West and Elgin Baylor just cursed my name for bringing that up.) This is also the first time in 23 years that the preceding two NBA Champions will be playing each other in the Finals.
Now, on to business…
Los Angeles – The number one thing the Lakers have to do to be successful is slow down/limit Rajon Rondo’s penetration. I know Derek Fisher is a convenient punching bag, but the guy has faced Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams and Steve Nash in succession this post season and only needed help with Westbrook. Since Rondo (back) is not 100% it’s possible, albeit unlikely, that Fish can handle him on his own. If Fisher is getting eaten alive I expect Sasha Vujacic and Shannon Brown will get their chances as well before Kobe Bryant has to take over. I didn’t forget to mention Jordan Farmar, who is shooting 45% from three in the playoffs and is just generally playing well, because his olé style D will not slow Rajon down in the least.
The next key for LA is how Pau Gasol plays. In the 2008 Finals he was straight up manhandled by Kevin Garnett from the opening tip. KG got physical with Gasol, pushing him off his spots and incessantly woofing him, and Pau shrunk up like turtle going back into his shell. Hence the origin of his unflattering nickname…GaSOFT. Well fast forward to 2010 and Garnett (right knee) can’t move laterally like he used to. Gasol must take advantage of this by facing KG up in the mid-post area and putting the ball on the floor to get by him. The Big Mouth…err…Ticket also can’t “second jump” anymore. What this means is that Pau and the rest of the Laker bigs need to play some volleyball on the offensive glass.
If Andrew Bynum (right knee) were healthy I don’t think this would be much of a series. As is Drew can still make a difference by playing tough, being a threat offensively, hitting the boards and being an active last line of defense. It would also be nice if he could draw a technical foul on Kendrick Perkins (leading to Perk being suspended for one game).
Boston – The problem for the Celtics is simple…who guards Kobe Bryant? Ray Allen, Michael Finley and Marquis Daniels have no chance because Kobe is playing his best ball since he broke his right index finger on 12/11. The best option for Boston is probably Tony Allen, but Allen (right ankle) is not healthy which makes that a dicey proposition at best. This leaves Paul Pierce, who only averaged 13.5 points a game on 34.5% shooting when guarding LeBron James in the second round. Something tells me that double duty probably isn’t wise for the aging PP if the C’s are to win. Kobe’s just such a willing passer these days, trusting his teammates more than ever, and when his jumper is falling there’s really nothing anyone can do. It will take all of assistant coach Tom Thibodeau’s genius to slow the Mamba down.
The biggest change for either team since 2008 has to be the addition of Ron Artest. You can pretty much guarantee Ronnie’s offense will be up and down all series and that he’ll have one terrible game and one great game along the way. Where Artest will be VERY consistent though is in his defending of Pierce. I expect Ron to be in Paul’s shorts…almost literally…from the opening tip to the final whistle every single game. The question then becomes how does PP deal with it? Something tells me these two are headed for a scuffle, or at the very least a shoving match. And if they both get thrown out and/or suspended…advantage Lakers. With the job Ron-Ron did on the league’s leading scorer (held Kevin Durant to 35% from the field and 20.6% from three down from his season averages of 47.6% & 36.5% respectively) I’d be very worried if I was a Boston fan.
Another concern for the Celtics has to be their reserve big men. Rasheed Wallace (back) isn’t right and Glen Davis is just too short. If LA has done one thing consistently well this post season it’s punish smaller/weaker players down low. So while Big Baby might out hustle them at times, he has no chance to defend Drew or Pau on the low block. Likewise, Sheed and Baby are too slow to contend with Lamar Odom off the dribble. That said whoever wins the individual Wallace-Odom battle nightly could swing the series.
The pick – The Lakers haven’t lost at home all playoffs and have closed out their last five series’ (Denver, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Utah, Phoenix) on the road. Boston finished the season tied for the second best road record (26-15) in the league but only went 24-17 (tied for 15th) at home. Something has to give here.
The C’s have a penchant for giving up big leads in the 4th quarter and will almost certainly get blown out of one game. On the other hand LA has a tendency to hang around all game (as long as their bench doesn’t blow it) and pull out wins at the end. If I live in Beantown I'm concerned about my boys being able to consistently score enough points to stay in games.
Contrary to popular belief this series is going to be ugly and defensive oriented on both sides. Don’t let the Suns series fool you; the Lakers know how to play some serious defense. During the regular season LA was 5th (44.6%) in defensive field goal percentage and Boston was 10th (45.1%). During the playoffs the Lakers are 2nd (43.7%) and the Celtics 3rd (43.8%). The biggest statistical differences I could find were rebounding and turnovers. LA was 7th in rebounding and 6th in turnovers committed during the season and Boston was 25th and 21st respectively. In a series that figures to be this close an extra offensive rebound or unforced turnover could make all the difference.
This Laker group is completely prepared for the Celtics physical and intimidating style and LA has no problem playing slow down grind it out ball either. Also not to be overlooked is the revenge factor for the Lakers. Boston wanted it more last time around and that will not happen again. LA in 7.
posted by D$ at 10:23 AM
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