Second Round
I ended up going 6-2 in the first round for the second year in a row. Evidently I’m not as clairvoyant as I used to be but I’ll take whatever I can get at this point. I originally had Utah beating Denver in six but I ended up out thinking myself when Andrei Kirilenko was declared out for the series. Obviously Dallas turned out to be strictly a regular season team only so I will take the pipe there.
EAST
Celtics at Cavaliers
Cleveland – The big question on the minds of all Cavs fans is how is LeBron James’ right elbow doing? While I think he was being a little overly dramatic against Chicago, I do expect Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to come down hard multiple times on Bron’s elbow when fouling him. You know, just to make sure it’s really OK. As for the series itself I think Cleveland is in for more of a test than most do, but in the end their superior depth will wear the Celts down.
Boston – I expect coach Doc Rivers and his crew to try to ugly things up and turn this series into a “classic” mid-90’s affair. Aside from that I think Doc would be wise to let Bron run wild, have KG shut down Antawn Jamison and dare the rest of the Cavs to beat them. Since the C’s were only 25th in rebounding during the regular season they must hit the boards big time because Cleveland was the best rebounding team in the league. I’ll give Boston an outside chance if they can get enough critical breaks to go their way.
The pick – Cavs in 6.
Hawks at Magic
Orlando – With seven full days off in between series’ the Magic should be well rested for the second round. Dwight “Foul On You” Howard could really dominate the undersized Hawks if he is able to stay on the court for longer than 26.5 minutes per game. Jameer Nelson should also have his way with Atlanta since they have no one (outside of rarely used rookie Jeff Teague) that has the quickness to stay in front of him. Orlando is just too deep, too good defensively and too good rebounding the ball to be challenged here.
Atlanta – For the Hawks to have any chance they must push the pace of the games and try to frustrate Howard. You’d think with all their athletes that Atlanta would play fast, but they were actually the fourth slowest team in terms of pace this season. Al Horford has to draw Dwight away from the basket by making mid-range jumpers and Zaza Pachulia needs to try to and agitate Howard by being extra physical with him. If this current group of Hawks doesn’t want this be their last stand they’ll need to play hard every single night.
The pick – Magic in 5.
WEST
Jazz at Lakers
Los Angeles – First things first, Deron Williams is going to have his way with anybody coach Phil Jackson puts on him, including Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest. After that, and possibly Paul Millsap’s energy off the bench, I fail to see where Utah has any more individual advantages. It would behoove LA to end this series quickly since Kobe (right knee/left ankle/right index finger), Artest (left shoulder/left thumb), Lamar Odom (right knee/left shoulder) and Andrew Bynum (right knee) are all hurt. The Laker D was absolutely stifling in the first round (OKC shot 39.1%) and as long as they keep that up they will be fine.
Utah – I think D-Will (left elbow) should be healthy enough, but the news that Kirilenko (left calf) won’t be back until Game 3 is not good for the Jazz. It’s not that Wesley Matthews and C.J. Miles aren’t suited to defend Bryant, it’s just that AK-47’s length always gives Kobe problems. Utah’s biggest issue is that without Memo Okur (left Achilles) they have to rely on the inexperienced tandem of Kyrylo Fesekno/Kosta Koufos and the undersized duo of Carlos Boozer/Millsap to defend LA’s length inside. I don’t see that going well for them over the course of the series.
The pick – Lakers in 7.
Spurs at Suns
Phoenix – While they could really use Robin Lopez’s (bulging disc) size/bulk to defend Tim Duncan nothing else will matter if Steve Nash (right hip) isn’t healthy. Nash looked awful in Game 6 against Portland and he probably won’t be 100% the rest of the way. For the Suns to win Amar’e Stoudemire is going to have to abuse Tim Duncan, Jason Richardson needs to stay hot (52.7% FG & 51.2% 3FG in round one) and Phoenix must keep the tempo high at all times to take advantage of their superior depth.
San Antonio – I expect coach Gregg Popovich to come up with a scheme that both cools J-Rich down and beats Nash up, but I’m not sure how they will contain Amar’e (32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds & 56.3% shooting versus SA this season). Manu Ginobili hasn’t been the same since he broke his nose, Duncan is getting creakier by the minute and I don’t think Tony Parker likes his sixth man role. All that said I see the Spurs being able to control the tempo, win the rebounding battle and Pop making all the right adjustments.
The pick – Spurs in 6.
EAST
Celtics at Cavaliers
Cleveland – The big question on the minds of all Cavs fans is how is LeBron James’ right elbow doing? While I think he was being a little overly dramatic against Chicago, I do expect Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to come down hard multiple times on Bron’s elbow when fouling him. You know, just to make sure it’s really OK. As for the series itself I think Cleveland is in for more of a test than most do, but in the end their superior depth will wear the Celts down.
Boston – I expect coach Doc Rivers and his crew to try to ugly things up and turn this series into a “classic” mid-90’s affair. Aside from that I think Doc would be wise to let Bron run wild, have KG shut down Antawn Jamison and dare the rest of the Cavs to beat them. Since the C’s were only 25th in rebounding during the regular season they must hit the boards big time because Cleveland was the best rebounding team in the league. I’ll give Boston an outside chance if they can get enough critical breaks to go their way.
The pick – Cavs in 6.
Hawks at Magic
Orlando – With seven full days off in between series’ the Magic should be well rested for the second round. Dwight “Foul On You” Howard could really dominate the undersized Hawks if he is able to stay on the court for longer than 26.5 minutes per game. Jameer Nelson should also have his way with Atlanta since they have no one (outside of rarely used rookie Jeff Teague) that has the quickness to stay in front of him. Orlando is just too deep, too good defensively and too good rebounding the ball to be challenged here.
Atlanta – For the Hawks to have any chance they must push the pace of the games and try to frustrate Howard. You’d think with all their athletes that Atlanta would play fast, but they were actually the fourth slowest team in terms of pace this season. Al Horford has to draw Dwight away from the basket by making mid-range jumpers and Zaza Pachulia needs to try to and agitate Howard by being extra physical with him. If this current group of Hawks doesn’t want this be their last stand they’ll need to play hard every single night.
The pick – Magic in 5.
WEST
Jazz at Lakers
Los Angeles – First things first, Deron Williams is going to have his way with anybody coach Phil Jackson puts on him, including Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest. After that, and possibly Paul Millsap’s energy off the bench, I fail to see where Utah has any more individual advantages. It would behoove LA to end this series quickly since Kobe (right knee/left ankle/right index finger), Artest (left shoulder/left thumb), Lamar Odom (right knee/left shoulder) and Andrew Bynum (right knee) are all hurt. The Laker D was absolutely stifling in the first round (OKC shot 39.1%) and as long as they keep that up they will be fine.
Utah – I think D-Will (left elbow) should be healthy enough, but the news that Kirilenko (left calf) won’t be back until Game 3 is not good for the Jazz. It’s not that Wesley Matthews and C.J. Miles aren’t suited to defend Bryant, it’s just that AK-47’s length always gives Kobe problems. Utah’s biggest issue is that without Memo Okur (left Achilles) they have to rely on the inexperienced tandem of Kyrylo Fesekno/Kosta Koufos and the undersized duo of Carlos Boozer/Millsap to defend LA’s length inside. I don’t see that going well for them over the course of the series.
The pick – Lakers in 7.
Spurs at Suns
Phoenix – While they could really use Robin Lopez’s (bulging disc) size/bulk to defend Tim Duncan nothing else will matter if Steve Nash (right hip) isn’t healthy. Nash looked awful in Game 6 against Portland and he probably won’t be 100% the rest of the way. For the Suns to win Amar’e Stoudemire is going to have to abuse Tim Duncan, Jason Richardson needs to stay hot (52.7% FG & 51.2% 3FG in round one) and Phoenix must keep the tempo high at all times to take advantage of their superior depth.
San Antonio – I expect coach Gregg Popovich to come up with a scheme that both cools J-Rich down and beats Nash up, but I’m not sure how they will contain Amar’e (32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds & 56.3% shooting versus SA this season). Manu Ginobili hasn’t been the same since he broke his nose, Duncan is getting creakier by the minute and I don’t think Tony Parker likes his sixth man role. All that said I see the Spurs being able to control the tempo, win the rebounding battle and Pop making all the right adjustments.
The pick – Spurs in 6.
posted by D$ at 3:54 PM
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