Conference Finals & Bron Bron

My record after two rounds is a steaming pile of 8-4…by far my worst ever. Normally I’d be pretty mad about that, but since I picked three of the final four teams (only missed on San Antonio) correctly back in October I’m actually pretty pleased.

Before moving on to the previews I have to comment on where I think LeBron James will be playing next season. I’m going to rank the teams in terms of which I think has the greatest dynasty potential for the King.

1. Chicago – Could do a sign and trade for Bron using Luol Deng and then use their cap space to sign a big man (Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer). Then pair those two up with the Derrick Rose/Joakim Noah duo and a new coach…LOOK OUT!

2. New Jersey – Assuming they get the #1 pick, draft John Wall and then trade Devin Harris for a “stretch PF.” Their core could be Wall, Courtney Lee, James, new player X and Brook Lopez. Combine that with a new deep-pocketed owner, coach and arena (not to mention Jay-Z) and I don’t think this scenario is as far fetched as many.

3. Clippers – LeBron is the missing piece in the Baron Davis/Eric Gordon/Blake Griffin/Chris Kaman puzzle. He’d get to choose his coach here too, and possibly GM as well, but playing for owner Donald Sterling is probably a long shot.

4. Dallas – This would have to be a sign and trade only, but the Mavericks have the pieces (talent & cap relief) to get it done, an owner/GM combo that isn’t afraid to take chances and the allure of playing a few home games in the new Cowboys stadium. The core would look something like: Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, James, Dirk Nowitzki and Brendan Haywood. The downside for LeBron here is that he’d only have a few years before that core was too old to compete.

5. Miami – They can add Bron to Dwyane Wade, one of Bosh/Stoudemire/Boozer and then trade Michael Beasley for a PG or a center. I have them raked so low because after that they’d have to fill out the rest of their roster with minimum salaried players.

6. New York – The plan here would be to sign James, Wade or Joe Johnson, one of Bosh/Stoudemire/Boozer AND get them ALL to take slightly less than the maximum contract. I guess that’s not too off the wall, and they would still have some youngsters with promise in Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas, but Chandler and Gallo both play LeBron’s position. Sorry Knick fans, I just don’t see it happening.

7. Cleveland – If you saw his press conference after the Game 6 loss to the Celtics you know he’s not coming back here.

EAST

Celtics at Magic

Orlando – The Magic have been so good in the post season that they haven’t even been tested yet. Well, that’s about to change. Jameer Nelson has been playing out of his head in the playoffs (27.46 PER) and he will make a big statement if can keep it up against Rajon Rondo’s defense. Dwight Howard must step up and make his struggles against Kendrick Perkins a thing of the past. I also wonder if Rashard Lewis is going to be able to produce against Kevin Garnett. Luckily for Orlando their bench is very stout.

Boston – The aging Celtics obviously aren’t ready to roll over just yet. Other than KG’s resurgence the biggest difference for Boston in the post season has been their improved rebounding. Their rebound differential went from –1.47 in the regular season to +1.72 in the playoffs. They must keep that up to have any chance. The C’s also have to defend the 3-point line which they should be capable of since they can single cover Howard with Perkins. Boston isn’t as deep as the Magic are but their bench has been timely good.

The pick – I expect all these games to be close and decided by who performs better under crunch time pressure. With guys like Vince Carter, R-Lew and Dwight that worries me about Orlando. This series is basically a coin flip in my mind, but my gut tells me that the Celts have the individual match up edge. Since I picked Boston back in October I’m going against all the incredible statistics that the Magic have on their side. Celtics in 6.

WEST

Suns at Lakers

Los Angeles – Not only do the Lakers have a big size advantage up front again, but LA was the better defensive (5th to 12th) and rebounding (7th to 14th) team in the regular season as well. The key for LA will be shutting down Jason Richardson. Taking away the Suns third scorer should not be a problem for either Ron Artest or Kobe Bryant. The Lakers must be sure to keep the pace slow, pound the ball inside and hit the glass hard and they should be fine.

Phoenix – First things first, I expect the Steve Nash/Amar’e Stoudemire pick & roll combo to give LA all kinds of problems. That said the Suns need to play fast and shoot 3’s in transition because the Laker half court D is just too good to beat consistently over the course of a series. Robin Lopez (back) returning to join Goran Dragic, Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson and Channing Frye will give Phoenix even more of an advantage off the bench.

The pick – Look for LA to come out on fire in Game 1 after six days of rest. I also expect the Laker bench to blow at least one game. Phoenix is a stellar 36-9 since 1/28, but I think people are making too big a deal out of their defense. Yes their D is improved, but it’s not an upper echelon unit by any means. Something tells me this series may not be as close an everyone says. Then again, these are the lackadaisical Lakers. LA in 7.

Second Round

I ended up going 6-2 in the first round for the second year in a row. Evidently I’m not as clairvoyant as I used to be but I’ll take whatever I can get at this point. I originally had Utah beating Denver in six but I ended up out thinking myself when Andrei Kirilenko was declared out for the series. Obviously Dallas turned out to be strictly a regular season team only so I will take the pipe there.

EAST

Celtics at Cavaliers

Cleveland – The big question on the minds of all Cavs fans is how is LeBron James’ right elbow doing? While I think he was being a little overly dramatic against Chicago, I do expect Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to come down hard multiple times on Bron’s elbow when fouling him. You know, just to make sure it’s really OK. As for the series itself I think Cleveland is in for more of a test than most do, but in the end their superior depth will wear the Celts down.

Boston – I expect coach Doc Rivers and his crew to try to ugly things up and turn this series into a “classic” mid-90’s affair. Aside from that I think Doc would be wise to let Bron run wild, have KG shut down Antawn Jamison and dare the rest of the Cavs to beat them. Since the C’s were only 25th in rebounding during the regular season they must hit the boards big time because Cleveland was the best rebounding team in the league. I’ll give Boston an outside chance if they can get enough critical breaks to go their way.

The pick – Cavs in 6.

Hawks at Magic

Orlando – With seven full days off in between series’ the Magic should be well rested for the second round. Dwight “Foul On You” Howard could really dominate the undersized Hawks if he is able to stay on the court for longer than 26.5 minutes per game. Jameer Nelson should also have his way with Atlanta since they have no one (outside of rarely used rookie Jeff Teague) that has the quickness to stay in front of him. Orlando is just too deep, too good defensively and too good rebounding the ball to be challenged here.

Atlanta – For the Hawks to have any chance they must push the pace of the games and try to frustrate Howard. You’d think with all their athletes that Atlanta would play fast, but they were actually the fourth slowest team in terms of pace this season. Al Horford has to draw Dwight away from the basket by making mid-range jumpers and Zaza Pachulia needs to try to and agitate Howard by being extra physical with him. If this current group of Hawks doesn’t want this be their last stand they’ll need to play hard every single night.

The pick – Magic in 5.

WEST

Jazz at Lakers

Los Angeles – First things first, Deron Williams is going to have his way with anybody coach Phil Jackson puts on him, including Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest. After that, and possibly Paul Millsap’s energy off the bench, I fail to see where Utah has any more individual advantages. It would behoove LA to end this series quickly since Kobe (right knee/left ankle/right index finger), Artest (left shoulder/left thumb), Lamar Odom (right knee/left shoulder) and Andrew Bynum (right knee) are all hurt. The Laker D was absolutely stifling in the first round (OKC shot 39.1%) and as long as they keep that up they will be fine.

Utah – I think D-Will (left elbow) should be healthy enough, but the news that Kirilenko (left calf) won’t be back until Game 3 is not good for the Jazz. It’s not that Wesley Matthews and C.J. Miles aren’t suited to defend Bryant, it’s just that AK-47’s length always gives Kobe problems. Utah’s biggest issue is that without Memo Okur (left Achilles) they have to rely on the inexperienced tandem of Kyrylo Fesekno/Kosta Koufos and the undersized duo of Carlos Boozer/Millsap to defend LA’s length inside. I don’t see that going well for them over the course of the series.

The pick – Lakers in 7.

Spurs at Suns

Phoenix – While they could really use Robin Lopez’s (bulging disc) size/bulk to defend Tim Duncan nothing else will matter if Steve Nash (right hip) isn’t healthy. Nash looked awful in Game 6 against Portland and he probably won’t be 100% the rest of the way. For the Suns to win Amar’e Stoudemire is going to have to abuse Tim Duncan, Jason Richardson needs to stay hot (52.7% FG & 51.2% 3FG in round one) and Phoenix must keep the tempo high at all times to take advantage of their superior depth.

San Antonio – I expect coach Gregg Popovich to come up with a scheme that both cools J-Rich down and beats Nash up, but I’m not sure how they will contain Amar’e (32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds & 56.3% shooting versus SA this season). Manu Ginobili hasn’t been the same since he broke his nose, Duncan is getting creakier by the minute and I don’t think Tony Parker likes his sixth man role. All that said I see the Spurs being able to control the tempo, win the rebounding battle and Pop making all the right adjustments.

The pick – Spurs in 6.