Conference Finals

Well that was more like it. Going 4-0 in the second round bumped my record to a tidy 10-2 for the playoffs. Not great, but respectable enough…as long as I keep on winning of course.

WEST

Nuggets at Lakers

Los Angeles – I guess it took until the second round of the playoffs before people realized that my boys are very inconsistent with their effort. I’d be careful about writing them off just yet though. The Nugs don’t pose near the matchup problems for the Lakers that Houston did. The main difference is PG play where Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter do form a very solid rotation. However neither is a known as speedster so the penetration that killed LA against Rockets won’t be so prevalent.

Denver – Since these teams prefer to play at the same tempo it’s imperative that the Nugs resist the urge to run up and down with the Lakers. Trading baskets until the 4th quarter is exactly what LA wants to do. Instead the Nugs need to slow it down and make each game a grind it out affair. These clubs are also very similar defensively, so the Nugget big men (Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin & Chris Andersen) must consistently out hustle and out tough the Laker bigs just like Houston and Boston have done previously.

The pick – Before 2/27/09, where LA got in to Denver at 4 AM and proceeded to shoot 29.8% for the game, the Nuggets hadn’t beaten the Lakers since 4/9/07. Yes Denver is a different group and extremely hot right now, but the Nugs have no one outside of Dahntay Jones that can even remotely check Kobe Bryant. Lakers in 7.

EAST

Magic at Cavaliers

Cleveland – Yes they have been rolling along, but they also haven’t truly been tested yet at all. Orlando plays better defense than Detroit or Atlanta ever thought of, so the Cavs could be in for an immediate intensity adjustment on the offensive end. LeBron James will obviously continue to do his thing, but will his supporting cast keep rolling along as the competition and pressure ratchet up? Cleveland’s biggest advantage should be on the offensive glass so it’s essential that the Cavs crash the boards at all times.

Orlando – The Magic actually cause Cleveland some matchup problems with their mobile bigs (Hedo Turkoglu & Rashard Lewis). The formula for Orlando on offense is simple; pound the ball inside to Dwight Howard and make open threes. On defense I’d suggest that the Magic make someone, anyone, besides James beat them. Double Bron when he crosses half court, on the first dribble, on the catch, whatever. Mix it up, take it to the extreme if need be, but at all costs make him a passer first.

The pick – These teams played three times this season with the home team winning each game (2-1 Magic). When Orlando is hot from deep they will have a chance to win, but the big question with the Magic is how they’ll perform in crunch time. The one question I have about Cleveland is how will they perform when faced with some serious adversity? Cavs in 6.

Second Round

I went 6-2 in the first round, which is good but not up to my normal standards at all. The bummer for me is I ended up losing the two series which I agonized over the most. Oh well, it continues my trend of not being as good this season as I have been in the past. I’ll be happy if those are the only two series I end up losing though.

WEST

Mavericks at Nuggets

Denver – These two clubs are so evenly matched all over the place (Chauncey Billups/Jason Kidd, Dahntay Jones/Antoine Wright, Nene Hilario/Erick Dampier, J.R. Smith/Jason Terry) that the Nugs really need to focus on the one area where they have a slight advantage, and that’s playing defense. If Kenyon Martin can harass/frustrate Dirk Nowitzki the way he just did David West, Denver will be in good shape.

Dallas – It’s quite obvious that the Mavs are a completely different squad when Josh Howard is in the lineup and productive. I wonder if Howard’s balky left ankle is healed enough to deal with the inside/outside game of Carmelo Anthony though? The big key for Dallas will be if their bigs (Dirk, Damp, Brandon Bass & Ryan Hollins) can control the boards against K-Mart, Nene and Chris “Birdman” Andersen.

The pick – Nugs in 7

Rockets at Lakers

Los Angeles – After a week off my boys should be primed and ready to go, at least for a quarter or so. The Lakers main problem as this post season moves along is battling complacency, and since they swept Houston in the regular season by an average of 13 points a game, I expect that to be an issue once again. Other than that though, I don’t see the Rockets giving LA many problems.

Houston – The Ron Artest/Shane Battier combo just “held” Brandon Roy to 26.7 points per game, so I don’t have much confidence in them stopping Kobe Bryant. Especially since Kobe averaged 28.3 points on 53% shooting against the Rockets this season. The Lakers also have more than enough length/size to deal with Yao Ming. I just don’t see the Rockets being able to score enough points to beat LA four times.

The pick – Lakers in 6

EAST

Magic at Celtics

Boston – The Celts are bound to have some sort of letdown after that epic first round series with Chicago, and while Orlando isn’t quite as athletic as the Bulls, the Magic still have more athletes than Boston does. The key for the C’s is going to be Kendrick Perkins staying out of foul trouble against Dwight Howard. The options after Perk (Mikki Moore, Brian Scalabrine & Glen Davis) are frightening.

Orlando – Other than Courtney Lee (left sinus) the Magic are much healthier than Boston is. Hedo Turkoglu (left ankle) does still seem a little slow, but he is coming around. Either Hedo or Rashard Lewis has to guard “Big Baby,” which could see one of them in early foul trouble. For the season Orlando defended almost as well as the Celtics did, so look for this series to be another grind it out affair.

The pick – Magic in 6

Hawks at Cavaliers

Cleveland – I don’t expect the eight full days off to have a negative effect on the Cavs other than maybe being a little rusty in the first quarter of game one. Cleveland plays better defensive, is superior on the boards and has more depth than Atlanta does. As long as the Cavs play their game and don’t get sucked into the Hawks chippiness they will be fine.

Atlanta – If they were 100% healthy the Hawks do have the athleticism to give Cleveland some problems. Unfortunately Al Horford (right ankle) and Marvin Williams (right wrist) are both hurting (Williams can’t even shoot the ball). With coach Mike Woodson’s rotation down to seven players, combined with the Cavs huge size advantage up front, I just don’t think Atlanta has the horses to compete.

The pick – Cavs in 5