Post Copa América Fallout

Ok, let’s start with the referee.  Yes, he was completely out of his depth and lost control of the match very early.  However, he was NOT the reason we lost the game.  He called 12 fouls (2 yellows) on us and 12 (1 yellow) on Uruguay.  He was a joke to be sure, but it wasn’t his fault we couldn’t create any chances.  It doesn’t even matter that the Uruguay goal was clearly offside.  Remember that we had to WIN to advance, and that usually requires scoring a goal. 

Now compare that to Panama, where we had 4 fouls to their 19.  After Tim Weah got his red card, that match was easily the toughest watch for me since Couva.  Yep, I’m being serious, and it’s not even close.  Did you know that César Blackman, the guy who took out Matt Turner, wasn’t fouled by ANYONE on our team after that play for the rest of his time on the pitch?  Do you think Jermaine Jones or Kyle Beckerman would have let that slide?  Tyler Adams is a good player and all, but the only guy in our player pool that will purposely kick somebody is Johnny Cardoso.

Digging deeper into the fouls I found some pretty damning stats.

 

What does this tell me?  We are soft.  Not only physically but mentally too.  We get caught up in “but the ref” and then don’t know how to retaliate once the baseline is set for us.  We lack the veteran savvy to partake in the “dark arts” like these other CONMEBOL and CONCACAF sides.  I’ve been saying this for a while and it’s the main reason I was so high on Johnny from the start.

One more thing, we had a pass completion percentage of 75.4% overall and 75.5% in the attacking third.  Both of which put us at 14 out of 16 teams.

With that said, it’s time to show all the ways we didn’t change the way the world views American soccer.  Much less change soccer in America forever.  I don’t even know where to start with all these.

- We got grouped for the first time in 20 continental and global tournaments played at home.  That encompasses 17 Gold Cups, 2 Copa Américas and 1 World Cup.

- Since the group stage was introduced in 1975, we are the first host nation in the history of the Copa América to get grouped.

- We failed to advance to the knockout round after winning our opening match for the first time EVER.  Previously we had advanced all 23 times we won our opening group stage match.

- In 2024 we have lost 5 of our last 9 matches.  That is our worst stretch since 2018 when we lost 5 of 8.

- Amongst the CONCACAF teams in the Copa we finished 5^th of 6.  Panama 6 points, Canada 4, Mexico 4, Costa Rica 4, USMNT 3 & Jamaica 0.

So how is Gregg Berhalter still employed 8 days later?  It’s a combination of the US Soccer Federation’s ineptitude and GGG’s reluctance to own any part of the blame.  Neither of these are new, but let’s compare ourselves to some other countries in the Copa.

- Jamaica got grouped with zero points and a -6 goal differential.  Their coach, Heimir Hallgrimsson, resigned at his postgame press conference. 

- Ecuador advanced from their group and lost to Argentina in the Quarterfinals on penalty kicks.  They fired their coach Félix Sánchez just after midnight of the loss.

- Paraguay finished last in their group with a -5 goal differential.  They waited 6 days to fire their coach, Daniel Garnero.

- Brazil’s coach, Dorival Júnior, took FULL RESPONSIBILITY for his side losing to Uruguay on PKs in the Quarters.

GGG has never, and I repeat NEVER, taken responsibility for any loss.  Even in losses he says something like “We had more xG” or how we “Dominated” Canada in a 0-2 loss.  He’s also very quick to blame the players or refs, but never himself.  As I see it GGG should have resigned immediately, or at the very least by now.

I mean just listen to the nonsense he spouts at his postgame presser…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySH_2JlQKec

Are you the right person to lead this group to the 2026 World Cup?  “Yes.”  He also sees progress within the group and will do a thorough review of the tournament to see what went wrong.  The ego and borderline narcissism on him is just sickening.

It doesn’t stop there though.  His loser mentality has permeated the locker room too.  Matt Turner “Sees no issue with the direction we are heading.”  Adams “Absolutely still has faith in him.”  Weston McKennie says “We all have a comfortability with Gregg.”  Gio Reyna “Doesn’t think this tournament really had anything to do with the staff or the tactics or the way we play.”  At least Christian Pulisic had something different to say on his Instagram story.  “You deserve and will get better US fans.  Better days ahead.”

So, what in the fuck is the US Soccer Federation doing?  Well Sporting Director Matt Crocker is at the heart of all this since his first big move in charge was rehiring GGG because the players wanted him back.  His post-match statement was this: “Our tournament performance fell short of our expectations.  We must do better.  We will be conducting a comprehensive review of our performance in Copa América and how best to improve the team and results as we look towards the 2026 World Cup.”

The US Soccer Board had an “emergency” meeting the day after the game that by all accounts got very testy.  From everything I’ve read the entire Board wanted GGG fired except…wait for it…Crocker.  This led to CEO JT Batson and Crocker yelling at each other in front of the rest of the Board.  Suspiciously absent from all the “leaks” is exactly where President Cindy Parlow Cone stands on all this.

You see Crocker doesn’t have social media (although he did delete his LinkedIn account) and apparently told the rest of the Board “Who cares what people think.”  Batson’s take was the fans are outraged and are organizing boycotts against all our main sponsors.  The entire Board met on Monday to vote on GGG’s fate, because that’s what it takes to overrule Crocker.  Another interesting thing that has come out is that Crocker doesn’t live in the US and wasn’t even attending the Copa matches.  Instead, he was at the Euros and was apparently annoyed he had to fly to Chicago on short notice!

Now this whole situation has gone from #BerhalterOut to include #CrockerOut too.  Supposedly GGG will be fired Wednesday, but apparently Crocker has also floated the idea of waiting until September.  I think he’ll get a chance to fix his biggest mistake, but if he misses again, he will also be gone after the 2026 World Cup.

For me this is bittersweet.  On one hand, I’m glad to be rid of GGG so this same scenario didn’t happen while were hosting the World Cup.  Which was my biggest fear.  On the other hand, we had to waste our only true tune up against top competition for the World Cup to get rid of him.  Which was totally avoidable by not renewing his contract after it expired in 2022.

I said at the time he was rehired that it was one of the biggest sporting disappointments in my life.  Akin to the Eagles losing in the Super Bowl or the Lakers losing the Finals in Game 7.  There were just so many reasons not to rehire him.  Our history with second cycle coaches is terrible.  Bob Bradley and Jürgen Klinsmann both didn’t make it and Bruce Arena’s return ended in Couva.  The players asking for him to return was a really bad sign about their comfort level with him in charge. 

Beyond all that he’s just not a good coach tactically.  I’m not going to get into all the specifics of why, but suffice it to say GGG was just scraping by doing the absolute minimum.  Barely qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in third place on goal differential.  Not being able to win on the road in CONCACAF during World Cup Qualifying.  Never beating a top-15 team not named Mexico going 0-5-5.  Needing luck to beat Jamaica in the Nations League Semifinals.  Starting with the Columbia friendly and ending with the Uruguay Group Stage loss, his luck finally ran out.

WHERE THE PLAYERS STAND AFTER THIS WINDOW

Turner – He needs to find regular playing time somewhere because his main attribute shot stopping isn’t what it used to be.  His distribution with his feet is still terrible and unlikely to improve much at this point.

Ethan Horvath – Was uncharacteristically nervous when he came on.  A full season as Cardiff City’s #1 should improve that.

Sean Johnson – Didn’t play, but his time with the USMNT should be over now.  We need to blood a young keeper as our new #3.

Antonee Robinson – One of the very few players who was up for the fight this tournament presented.

Kristoffer Lund – Didn’t play but seemed like a good vibes guy, especially to Folarin Balogun.

Joe Scally – He was also up for the challenge and solidified his spot behind Sergiño Dest.  “Joey Clamps” might also be the preferred starter now in situations that call for a more defensive approach.

Shaq Moore – When he was warming up during the Uruguay match all I could think about is we are dead.  Should not be called into the USMNT again.

Chris Richards – He has to find a way to translate his form with Crystal Palace to the USMNT.

Tim Ream – He was passable, but it’s time to move on from him.  We can’t have a 38-year-old starting at center back in the World Cup.

Cameron Carter-Vickers – If he doesn’t move on from Celtic soon, he’s nothing but a deep back up for the USMNT.

Mark McKenzie – Hopefully a new coach gives him a chance to prove himself or fail.  Hard to judge him when he never plays.  He also might be getting a transfer from Genk to a higher level this summer.

Miles Robinson – Didn’t play but did make the Olympic roster.  Which is probably where he belongs.

Adams – Thinks he’s better than he really is.  MUST stay healthy for Bournemouth this season.

McKennie – I’m kind of tired of typing it at this point, but something is WAY off with him.  He deserved to be benched several times during this window.  His move to Aston Villa fell through because of his salary demands and Juventus doesn’t seem to want him anymore.  His career is at a crossroads at 26.

Reyna – GGG never played him as an attacking midfielder, which is his best position.  He played as a deep lying mid and winger.  If Dortmund is no longer it for him, he has to get his club situation sorted this summer.

Yunus Musah – Was pretty invisible when he played and hasn’t shown much improvement recently.  I think he needs to move on from AC Milan and drop to a mid-table club in a top-5 league to get more playing time.

Johnny – Thought he showed well in his limited opportunities.  I think he should stay at Betis this season, but if a big club makes a huge offer for him, he probably has to take it.

Malik Tillman – The talent is clearly there, but the mentality under pressure is not.  Another season dominating at PSV should help him, but he’ll need to move to a better level after that to truly be counted on.

Luca de la Torre – Much like McKenzie, LDLT has never been given a real opportunity to sink or swim.  He certainly deserved a chance in this window given McKennie’s struggles.

Pulisic – Further solidified himself as our unquestioned best player and leader.  It kind of feels like we might have wasted his career season since very few players were up to the task of joining him in the fight.

Weah – Ridiculous red card aside, he needs to find a club where he can play regular minutes.  At Juventus he’s a backup right back.  Prior to that at Lille he was mostly a backup winger.  Another guy that needs to drop to a mid-table club in a top-5 league.

Brenden Aaronson – Seems to have plateaued a bit.  He couldn’t hack the physicality of the Premier League and then took most of the season to adjust to the Bundesliga.  Those are two of the most physical leagues in the world.  We’ll see if he’s up for the physical demands of the rough and tumble Championship at Leeds.

Balogun – Locked down the #1 striker position and was the fourth and final guy that was up for big moments.  Hopefully he explodes at Monaco this season.

Ricardo Pepi – He’s currently 4^th on my striker depth chart.  PSV is probably a good level for him, but he’s going to be stuck behind Luuk de Jong again this season.  A loan might be a decent option for him, but it’s a tough call.

Haji Wright – Looked dangerous in his limited minutes.  If he has another big season for Coventry City EPL clubs will probably start sniffing around.

Josh Sargent – Thought he held the ball up and combined well with others in his short spells.  He was clearly an upgrade over Pepi and is currently my #2 striker.  He needs to get his ankle/foot right and kill it for Norwich City again this season.

Lots of good stuff from Tab Ramos here…

https://www.socceramerica.com/gregg-berhalter-tab-ramos-usmnt-copa/

Good summation here…

https://shedainad.wordpress.com/2024/07/02/the-usmnt-is-heading-in-the-wrong-direction/

A deep dive into tactics here…

https://mattemmert.substack.com/p/berhalters-dilemma?r=5w4dd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

USWNT Olympic Roster

The Emma Hayes era got off to a great start!  We beat South Korea (20^th in FIFA rankings) 4-0 and 3-0.  My main takeaway from these matches is that we are back to being ass kickers.  We kept up the pressure and were aggressive from start to finish regardless of the scoreline or time remaining. It was like a breath of fresh air to remember who we are as a women’s footballing nation.

Gone are the bad old days of former coach Vlatko Andonovski where we looked lost on the pitch and bereft of any attacking ideas.  Questionable roster selection is also a thing of the past as Hayes called in fresh blood and even had some younger training only players in her camp. 

Starting XI choices also made so much more sense as Emma rolled out the lineup, sans maybe keeper, that everyone wanted to see in match one. She rotated heavily in match two with nine new faces in the XI, but she wanted to get a look at everyone.  She managed to play all but two players, midfielder Hal Hershfelt and third keeper Aubrey Kingsbury.

With that out of the way it’s time to name my 18-player (and 4 alternates) Olympic roster. The deadline to submit the roster is 7/3, which leaves only 3 NWSL matchdays between now and then.  Our European based players are going to need to find a way to get some rest after a long season while also staying in shape, which might be difficult.  One quick note is that Canada coach Bev Priestman hinted at a recent press conference that there are “behind the scenes” discussions going on about raising the roster size to 23 like all normal big tournaments.  Color me dubious about that.

Assuming everyone is healthy here is how I would build my roster…

KEEPER – Alyssa Naeher and Casey Murphy.  Naeher was injured for this camp but was back in action on Saturday 6/8.  Murphy is 6’1 and made two outstanding reaction saves in the second South Korea match.  I’d be fine with her being the starter, even with Naeher’s superior experience.

Alternate: Jane Campbell.  She started the first South Korea match but had almost nothing to do.  She was Goalkeeper of the Year last season in NWSL and currently leads the league total saves, is second in goals against average and tied for first in clean sheets.

CENTER BACKS – Naomi Girma, Tierna Davidson and either Abby Dahlkemper or Sam Staab.  Girma is our most important player and captain in waiting.  I still can’t believe Vlatko didn’t take Davidson to the World Cup.  I worry about her pace sometimes, but as a left-footed CB with great passing range she is a no brainer.

Alternate: Dahlkemper or Staab.  My feeling is we need another true CB on the active roster in case of injury or suspension.  If one of the starters gets a tournament ending injury, then we need to replace her with another true CB for the same reasons.  Sam is left-footed and Abby right.  Both are excellent at playing line-breaking passes, so whoever Hayes prefers.

FULLBACKS – Emily Fox, Jenna Nighswonger and Crystal Dunn.  Fox and Nighswonger are locked in starters on the right and left respectively.  Dunn can player either side as a backup as well as midfielder or winger in a pinch.

Alternate: Casey Krueger. Just as with the center backs, we will need a legitimate backup fullback on the roster at all times. 

MIDFIELDERS – Lindsey Horan, Sam Coffey, Catarina Macario, Rose Lavelle, Korbin Albert and Lily Yohannes.  Horan is our captain and locked in at the #8 position.  Although she is a very different player, Coffey has answered the question of who replaces Julie Ertz at the #6.  Macario looks to be our starting #10 with Lavelle as her backup.  Albert runs her socks off and can backup both the #6 and #8. Yohannes might be a controversial pick here, but what she showed in her one cap was something we haven’t seen for a while.  The calmness and composure on the ball combined with her passing vision and touch makes her a special prospect at only 17 years old.  Bringing her to Olympics would give Emma the opportunity to cap-tie her removing Holland as an option.

Alternate: Olivia Moultrie.  Moultrie is still just 18 and already in her fourth NWSL season.  I’d bring her along so she can get some big tournament experience.

FORWARDS – Sophia Smith, Mallory Swanson, Trinity Rodman and Jaedyn Shaw.  Smith is our player in the best form right now.  She would be the only “true” striker on the roster, but several other players can fill in for her there.  Swanson would play the left wing and Rodman the right.  Both can also play striker as can Macario.  Shaw’s best position is probably the #10, but Hayes sees her as a winger right now since she is behind both Cat and Rose.  The Mal-Soph-Trin frontline is going to be so much fun to watch as they absolutely terrorize teams at the Olympics with their pace and interchangeability.

Post Mortem

NETHERLANDS

In their pre-match press conferences, the Oranje players were all saying that they had a good plan on how to attack us.  I figured that was just bluster and that United States Manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG) would have a decent gameplan of his own.  Well, I was wrong.  GGG was flat out coached by Louis van Gaal. 

Holland knew that our strength was the MMA Midfield so they man-marked all of them, not letting us play through the middle.  They also put pressure on our fullbacks which didn’t let us play out wide.  The only option remaining was our center backs, who had all the time in the world, picking out passes from the back.  The Dutch even fine-tuned it to where they kept leaving Walker Zimmerman as the guy having to distribute, which is not his strength.

If you remember from my preview this was the known script on how to beat us.  However, van Gaal added a twist.  Once we had the ball in the attacking third, they basically let us have it as long as we wanted.  Their gamble was that we could be dangerous and create chances but wouldn’t be able to finish.  They were right again.

Then when we lost the ball, the Oranje quickly attacked down our flanks catching Jedi Robinson and Sergiño Dest out of position.  This put our center backs at a numbers disadvantage and had our midfield scrambling to get back.  Think of it as the soccer version of a rope-a-dope.  It certainly would have been nice if GGG realized this and adjusted his tactics.

Our defense was rock solid during the group stage, but Holland carved us open on the counterattack like no other side was able to.  They did so at speed too.  Moving the ball from one end to the other and side-to-side with quick one-touch passes that kept our transition defense scrambling to find runners.

That is how all three goals happened.  On the first Tyler Adams, who had been great for us, didn’t track Memphis Depay’s run.  Adams was even with him at midfield but for some reason jogged from there and Depay’s finish was clinical.  On the second Dest switched off for an instant giving Daley Blind enough space for another clinical finish.  The third was more of the same only this time Jedi flat didn’t mark the man at the back post leaving Denzel Dumfries WIDE OPEN to put us out of our misery.

Beyond the defense being exposed tactically, our players looked fatigued, both mentally and physically.  Christian Pulisic was clearly not 100%.  Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, Dest and Jedi all didn’t seem fully fit either.  Not having Josh Sargent available was a HUGE loss since Jesús Ferreira proved to be useless.  As a group they also seemed a bit nervous, lacking confidence and not entirely prepared for the high-stakes moment. 

There will always be “what ifs” attached to this match.  What if Pulisic converts his early chance to make it 1-0 in the 3^rd minute?  What if Dest could have stayed locked in for another 30 seconds before halftime?  What if Pulisic hits a better pass to Haji Wright when it was 2-1?  Regardless, the Dutch were the better side on the day and were a deserved winner.  The final score line might have flattered them a bit, but they taught us some valuable lessons that we needed to learn.

ROSTER

The biggest shortcoming of our roster was a clear lack of depth.  We had to ride our main guys so hard in the group stage that they had nothing left for the knockout round.  Beyond bringing different players, GGG could have avoided some of this by using Gio Reyna more.  He also didn’t play Luca de la Torre and Joe Sally at all.  Basically, our only reliable sub over the four matches was Brenden Aaronson and possibly Haji depending on how generous you are feeling.

For US Soccer (USSF) the next 3.5 years are all about identifying and then integrating new young talent to complement our established core players.  In that vein, these are the ten spots that are open.  Assuming roster sizes stay at 26 there could be up to four more, but these ten are undoubtedly up for grabs.

Tim Ream (38 at the 2026 World Cup) – Acquitted himself very well for going from the wilderness to a locked in starter.  There are just too many younger prospects in the pipeline for him to remain a viable candidate.

Sean Johnson (37) – I don’t see our third keeper being a veteran at the next WC.

Zimm (33) – Has to move to Europe and work on his ball skills to stay in the mix ahead of the younger generation coming up behind him.

Aaron Long (33) – Didn’t feature at all and should not have even been on this roster.

DeAndre Yedlin (33) – The need for his WC experience is over.

Kelly Acosta (31) – Made two appearances but never at the position he was brought in for.  Not that Adams’ backup is ever going to play much, but we should be able to find a younger player for when Tyler needs a rest.

Christian Roldan (31) – I’m sure everyone now sees that this was a wasted roster spot.

Jordan Morris (31) – Played 18 minutes total over two matches and had no impact.

Shaq Moore (29) – Technically young enough to still be in the mix, but we already had a better player than him on this roster.

Ferreira (25) – In fairness, he’s not a striker and was out of his depth at the international level.  To give himself a chance in 2026 he’ll need to go to Europe and find out what his real position actually is.

FUTURE

The biggest decision facing USSF President Cindy Parlow Cone, Sporting Director Earnie Stewart and Men’s General Manager Brian McBride this cycle is who the next manager will be?  Berhalter’s contract is up at the end of 2022 and USSF doesn’t have a great track record with two cycle managers.

Bob Bradley lasted one year after 2010 before he was replaced by Jürgen Klinsmann.  Jürgen lasted two years after 2014 before being replaced by Bruce Arena.  After his quarterfinal run in 2002 Arena did make it to 2006.  However, he hung on to too many aging veterans and we finished last in our group.

There is also a school of thought that says never let anyone stay around for two cycles.  The reason is that national team rosters don’t really fluctuate like club rosters do.  The good players from your country stay that way until they age out or get injured.  So, a manager’s message can get stale in addition to relaying on “favorite” players past their primes.

The best analogy that I’ve heard came from ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura comparing the USMNT to the Golden State Warriors.  Mark Jackson was named coach of the Warriors when they were terrible.  He built them up to a respectable playoff team but couldn’t get them to the next level.  He was fired, replaced by Steve Kerr and the rest is history.

That’s where the USMNT are right now.  GGG did his job of restoring the program after the disaster of missing the 2018 WC.  We are a solid, young and exciting team.  We work hard and play good defense but our offensive ideas are sorely lacking.  However, we have reached the ceiling of what we are capable of under his leadership.

I have many problems with Berhalter, but overall, he did a good job this cycle.  That doesn’t mean I want him back, and both things can be true.  Beyond needing a new voice and a fresh perspective, we need a manager that is proven at the international level.  Someone who has managed a talented side with high expectations deep into the knockout rounds.  I’m not going to go into potential candidates, but I am very nervous about USSF royally screwing this decision up.

The next issue facing USSF is the lack of “big” matches until we, along with Canada and Mexico, host in 2026.   You don’t have to go through the qualification gauntlet when you host the WC.  That eliminates all the highest pressure matches right off the bat.  All that leaves for our European nucleus would be CONCACAF Nations League and friendlies on FIFA fixture dates.  The Gold Cup will still be around but that happens during the European offseason when our main guys need to rest their minds and bodies. 

There have been some recent reports saying that since Ecuador has resigned as host of the 2024 Copa America, that the USA will step in to host as a “test run” of sorts for 2026.  Canada, Mexico and three other CONCACAF nations would join all of CONMEBOL (South America) making 16 total teams.  This tournament would run concurrently with the 2024 Euro being held in Germany.  Getting to play against the likes of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Columbia while Europe battles it out would be MASSIVE for our team’s development.

Not only do all our core players ply their trade in Europe, but now they also have WC experience.  The next wave of young players in Europe should become our missing depth pieces over the next 3.5 years.  With our starters AND bench firmly in their early-to-mid-20s primes, while hosting the WC, a run to the semifinals should be our goal.  We can settle for the quarterfinals but anything less than that will be a failure.  

Time to raise our expectations people!

Iran & Netherlands

IRAN

It’s starting to sound like a broken record, but United States Manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG) got his lineup and tactics spot-on again in the first half.  Unfortunately, he got his substitutions wrong once more and almost let the match slip away late with a misguided formation change.

Iran played slightly more aggressive than most thought very early coming out in a mid-block.  Eventually though they settled into their normal low-block and looked to hit us on the counterattack.  Regardless of Team Melli’s shape, the USMNT was dominating possession and creating quality chances galore.  It culminated with Christian Pulisic slotting home a headed cross from Sergiño Dest in the 38^th minute.

GGG was forced to make three substitutes.  Pulisic (45) and Josh Sargent (77) got hurt and Weston McKennie (65) was gassed.  Replacing them with Brenden Aaronson, Haji Wright and Kellyn Acosta was understandable given the circumstances.  Being up 1-0 Aaronson and Acosta are quality defensive subs.

Where Berhalter went off the rails was shifting to back five at 82 by inserting Shaq Moore and Walker Zimmerman for Dest and Tim Weah.  Don’t get me wrong, Serg and Timo were tired, but moving from our normal 4-3-3 formation to a 5-4-1 that we barely ever use put us at unnecessary risk.  For the final 18 minutes Iran had chance after chance and we were extremely lucky to get out of there with necessary three points.

PLAYERS

Matt Turner – Didn’t have much to do once again.  His distribution has been a revelation thus far in the World Cup (WC).  He started the 11-pass sequence that led to the goal.  Will need to have zero mental lapses and be 100% sharp on Saturday.

Jedi Robinson – Worked hard as usual.  However, his first touch was plain jackhammer-like in this one.  His crossing wasn’t much better.

Tim Ream – Another rock-solid performance.  I shudder to think where we’d be without him.

Cameron Carter-Vickers – One of two changes GGG made to the starting XI and a huge gamble.  It paid off as CCV put in a strong performance until the late formation change jumbled responsibilities at the back.

Dest – Maybe our best players on the day.  Besides the assist he consistently created danger down the right flank.  His defensive awareness was there as well.  Saturday will have some extra meaning for him playing against his birth country.

McKennie – Was not as clean on the ball or as active as he was against England.  He did have the “hockey assist” on the goal though.  We are going to need the best version of him against Holland.

Tyler Adams – There’s not much else I can say about him anymore, other than he’s “Our Captain.”

Yunus Musah – Was all over the place on his birthday.  Looking back on my last preview it was foolish to suggest breaking up the MMA Midfield.

Pulisic – Beyond scoring the goal he was once again our most dangerous attacker in only 45 minutes.  If he was able to play 90, we would have scored again.

Sargent – Even though he didn’t score this was still the best match he has ever played for the USMNT.  His defense was solid and his hold-up play was outstanding.  Sadly, something always seems to happen to him just when things are looking up.

Weah – I still can’t believe VAR didn’t pause the match to look at his goal right before halftime.  I suppose he was offside, but it was damn close.  He seems to run out of steam around 60-65 and needs to be subbed off sooner than he has been.

Aaronson – The defense and work-rate was there, but I feel like he should have been more dangerous in the attacking third.

Acosta – Was put in there for his defense and that is what he did.

Wright – Wasn’t very good.  Made a poor decision late on to try and attack when he should have taken the ball to the corner to waste time.

Shaq Moore – Shouldn’t even be on the roster.  So how he is suddenly the backup right back is beyond me?  This is the second straight match where his lack of skill almost cost us a result.  There is NO WAY he should see the pitch again in this tournament.

Walker Zimmerman – Only played the final 18 minutes and led the all players in the match with EIGHT clearances.  None bigger than the ball he cleared off the line after it slipped past Turner.  I won’t be surprised to see him back starting against the Dutch.

NETHERLANDS

Believe it or not, Holland (3) is currently ranked higher in ELO than England (8).  The general consensus among experts though is that the English are clearly more talented than the Dutch.  Then take into account that the Oranje were unimpressive in winning Group A.  They needed a late goal (84) to beat Senegal, were thoroughly out played (15 shots to 2) in their draw with Ecuador and coasted past Qatar.  There are also reports that the flu is currently running through their team.

Add all that up, and while we should have a healthy respect for the Dutch, by no means should we fear them.  In fact, TV ratings in Holland have been decreasing with each match because the people there don’t think their side has a chance to win it all.  Furthermore, the Dutch people and writers are expecting to lose to us.  Yes, you read that right.

I’m not willing to go as far as to call us the favorites, but we have a very good chance of winning.  I expect GGG to deploy some more of the 4-4-2 shape we saw against England to keep Holland’s possession at bay.  One wrinkle to that could be that the Oranje always play a 3-4-3 under Manager Louis van Gaal.  The USMNT hasn’t seen that formation yet in the WC so GGG might have something new up his sleeve.

Of course, the big question for us right now is injuries.  Pulisic was cleared to play, but how much or if he starts won’t be known until an hour before first kick.  I think it’s doubtful he can go 90.  Sargent is still day-to-day with ankle soreness.  He supposedly looked ok in the 15-minutes of training that was open to the media, but Berhalter sounded less confident Josh could go compared to CP.

Those are just the injuries we know about.  The Gio Reyna situation is the biggest mystery of the WC for us.  Berhalter’s latest spin is that since we’ve been ahead late Reyna hasn’t been needed to chase a goal.  I suppose if asked he would say the same about Luca de la Torre as well.  McKennie, Dest and even Weah also don’t seem 90-minutes fit either.

When sickos like me complain about the end of the roster this is why.  With Sargent questionable, Wright not looking up for it and Jesús Ferreira glued to the bench wouldn’t it be nice to have Ricardo Pepi sitting there ready to go?  Pepi has six goals in nine matches in the Dutch top-flight.  Did I mention we are playing Holland?

Djordje Mihailovic would also be a nice option to have since Aaronson and Acosta seem to be the only backup midfielders that GGG will play right now.  Then there is the case of 19-year-old Joe Scally.  He is somehow fourth on the right back depth chart despite being a locked-in starter for Borussia Mönchengladbach (8^th place in the Bundesliga).  The reason I complain so much on roster release day is these depth pieces always end up playing a role in a long tournament.  Not to mention that our roster suddenly looks very thin at important positions.

With that as the backdrop I think in an ideal world GGG would start the same lineup he did against Wales and Iran.  I’m guessing he leans Zimmerman over CCV, but that is the only spot up for debate assuming everyone’s health is intact.  As is right now I just don’t know?  We will certainly need all five substitutes and six if we go to extra time.  This is especially worrying because as unexpectedly good as Berhalter has been this WC, his subs have been consistently bad.  Both timing and personnel wise. 

     CP Josh Weah

 Wes Adams Musah

Jedi Ream Zimm Dest

            Turner

SUBS: Reyna, Wright, Aaronson, Jordan Morris, Scally, de la Torre

As you can see by the number of subs, I’m expecting this match to be tied after 90.  Never fear though, Gio is going to announce himself on the world’s biggest stage.  He’ll deliver the winner in the second half of extra time so we can avoid penalty kicks. 

England & Iran

ENGLAND

United States Manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG) did something I didn’t see coming against England.  He switched up his formation from his preferred 4-3-3 to a more compact 4-4-2.  He played Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie as wide midfielders on the left and right respectively.  He also moved Tim Weah up top to play as a second forward alongside Haji Wright.

The Three Lions never really figured out a way through our more compressed midfield.  For some reason English Manager Gareth Southgate didn’t switch up his tactics until it was too late and the substitutes he chose were questionable at best. 

This led to long stretches of play where the Americans looked like the better side.  While it is probably a reach to say the USA was the superior team on the day, we certainly had some good chances.  England carried play for periods of time as well and had some solid chances of their own, but dominant they were not.

Now that is not to say GGG got it all right.  He once again waited far too long to make his first substitutions at 77-78.  The match was screaming for fresh legs and minds from the hour mark on.  He put in Brenden Aaronson for Wes and Shaq Moore for Sergiño Dest first.  I was stunned to see Moore get the nod over Joe Scally.  Then Gio Reyna and Josh Sargent came on at 83 for Weah and Wright respectively but didn’t have enough time to impact the proceedings.

PLAYERS

Matt Turner – Didn’t have a lot to do honestly, but was there when he needed to be.  Had some nice moments on the ball and in distribution.

Jedi Robinson – Played strong defense but his crosses were not anywhere near accurate enough.

Tim Ream – Once again was one of our better players.  Hard to find fault with anything he did.

Walker Zimmerman – As I said in my World Cup Preview this guy is our weak link and he is certainly living up to that label.  Had some nervy moments on the ball and especially in distribution.  He was however part of a defense that kept a clean sheet against England.

Dest – Played maybe the best game defensively I’ve ever seen from him, club or country.  He was locked in on that end and also created some dangerous moments going forward.  Was pissed off when he was subbed out, which I always like to see from any player.

Pulisic – Set piece delivery improved dramatically even if his teammate’s runs did not.  Had a career-defining shot rattle off the crossbar and was generally our most dangerous attacker on the night.

Yunus Musah – Put in another great shift all over the midfield.  It’s crazy to think he only turns 20 tomorrow (11/29).

Tyler Adams – Our best player on the day.  Was absolutely everywhere putting out fires (again).

McKennie – Light years better than he was against Wales.  First off, he looked fit and up for it.  Was much tidier on the ball limiting his giveaways.  Has to find a way to get that wide-open shot in the box on frame though.

Wright – The only change GGG made to the starting XI likely because he was viewed as the most physical striker.  Did his job and wasn’t bad, but also didn’t impact the match very much.

Weah – Playing as a second forward seemed to limit what he does best, making runs in behind the defense.  Looked tired around the 65^th minute and should have been subbed out much sooner than 83.

Aaronson – Wasn’t as impactful as he needed to be.  In fairness to him it’s difficult to find any rhythm in only 18 minutes of action.

Moore – GGG was playing with fire here as Shaq had a few really poor giveaways that were lucky to go unpunished.  No way should he should see the pitch again in this tournament.

Reyna – Saw his first World Cup action and was barely involved.  Hard to find the game when you play 12 minutes as opposed to 30+.

Sargent – Didn’t do much in his 12-minute cameo.

IRAN

Any scenario where we advanced to the knockout round always involved us winning at least one match.  Thanks to Zimmerman’s gaffe against Wales, we have no other choice than to get it done against Iran.  We are eliminated with a loss or a draw regardless of the result in the England-Wales match.  There are scenarios where we can still finish atop the group, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Beating Team Melli is going to require two things that have been in very short supply during Berhalter’s tenure.  The first is winning away from US soil.  Our last win away from home was on 9/8/21 in Honduras.  That is a span of 10 away/neutral matches and counting with only 3 goals scored over that same span.

The next is finding a way to break down and score against a low block defense.  GGG teams have always struggled against a low block, and unfortunately for us, that is exactly what Iran does well.  Meaning they won’t need to alter their system at all.  They can sit back, defend, frustrate us, look to score on one counterattack or just play for a 0-0 draw since that is all they need to advance for the first time ever.

The only way to counteract this is to get more creative players on the pitch at the same time.  Since changing formations is suddenly an option, I’d like see GGG deploy us in a 4-2-3-1.  Now if you had told me prior to the World Cup that Reyna would be healthy and have only played 12 minutes in one match I would not have believed you. 

GGG basically doesn’t ever utilize a creative midfielder (#10).  He prefers to play two box-to-box midfielders (#8s) with a destroyer (#6).  Right now, Gio is fresh and this matchup is literally screaming for his skill set.  He can play under the striker (Sargent for me) flanked by Pulisic and Weah.  If those four plus McKennie crashing the box aren’t able to score on Iran we don’t deserve to advance.

Of course, if Reyna comes in then someone has to sit and I think that guy should be Musah.  Yunus is normally one of our most important players but his finishing and service in the final third is a level or two below the rest of his game.  Two of his strengths, ball-winning and progressing the ball between the lines, will be less important against a bunkered opponent.

If we are still needing a goal around the 60-minute mark, I would sub off Gio, Timo and Josh for Luca de la Torre, Aaronson and Wright respectively.  Luca can also play the #10 role and Brenden and Haji provide a different look than Weah and Sargent do.  If Wes or Sergiño still can’t go 90 then Musah and Scally should be ready.  If we manage to nick an early goal I would change our formation, tactics and substitutes to something more defensive in the second half.

          Sargent

  Pulisic Reyna Weah

   McKennie Adams

Jedi Ream Zimm Dest

           Turner

SUBS: Aaronson, de la Torre, Wright, Musah, Scally

I think we have enough talent to beat Iran.  The question is do we have the mental fortitude to grind out a result under the most pressure this collective of players will have ever faced?  I’m saying we get it done with a late goal, but hopefully not as late as Landon Donovan versus Algeria in 2010.

Wales & England

WALES

I have to admit when I saw the starting XI an hour before the match, I was very pleased.  I think it was only the second time in a match that really mattered where Gregg Berhalter (GGG) put out what I would consider his best available lineup.  Not only that, but he got the tactics spot on in the first half.  We were clearly the better side, had 66% of the possession, a goal and probably should have bagged another.

Then halftime happened and Wales changed tactics.  They came out of their defensive shell, started playing direct to freshly substituted striker Kieffer Moore (6’5) and pressed the hell out of us.  For some reason our players could not adjust to this and the match started to get away from us.

There are a few reasons for this.  I think the main one is that several of our key players started to run out of gas.  For some reason GGG was extremely slow to recognize this and make substitutions.  Also, any manager worth their salt would have expected the Welsh to make some kind of change after the break.  Not knowing exactly what it would be is understandable, but once he saw it Berhalter really didn’t change up his tactics at all.  Instead, he froze like a deer in headlights.

I said to the people sitting at my table that I would have subbed Weston McKennie out at halftime.  I give him credit for trying to battle through his injury, but he clearly didn’t have it, both mentally and physically.  GGG did finally bring on Brenden Aaronson for Wes at 66, but that was only after McKennie plainly couldn’t move anymore.

As happy as I was about Berhalter’s starting lineup, I was equally as upset with his subs.  Beside waiting far too long on Wes, he also waited too long on the others and used three players I would not have.  GGG waited until 74-75 and 88.  I would have made all four other changes at 60 since it was obvious by then that we were losing control of the match.  Haji Wright for Josh Sargent he got correct, but DeAndre Yedlin for Sergiño Dest, Kellyn Acosta for Yunus Musah and Jordan Morris for Tim Weah he got all wrong.

As I said in my preview, I’d have switched Dest for Joe Scally, Musah for Luca de la Torre and Weah for Gio Reyna.  Now de la Torre might not be fit, but according to a US Soccer spokesperson ALL players were ready and available. 

Which makes the case of Gio even more confounding.  As in how could arguably our most dangerous attacker not get any time in a match where we desperately needed a late goal?  He played McKennie on one leg for over an hour, but couldn’t give Reyna 13 minutes?  Makes no sense and is borderline unforgivable.

Reading the quotes after the match didn’t clear much up.  Other than Berhalter was being disingenuous regarding a player’s status once again.  This has been a common theme during his tenure when trying to gloss over inexplicable roster decisions. 

GGG said, “It was trying to get him [Reyna] up to speed.  There was some tightness we were guarding against.  But we've been building him up and think he can play a big role in this tournament.  The question is when.  Hopefully Friday, he'll be another step ahead.”

Then Gio completely undermined what his manager said.  “No, I feel great.  I feel really good.  I feel ready to go.  I felt good, I felt ready to go but it was just his [Berhalter] decision.  He doesn't have to tell me why he didn't put me in or why he does.  But I'm 100 percent. I'm good to go.”

The only other thing I want to say about the match in general is the referee was awful.  When I saw the day before that Abdulrahman Al-Jassim and his crew were from the Qatari League, I knew we were in trouble.  Then combine that with him having a track record of being very card happy in that league, and let’s just say he lived up to his reputation.

Overall, this performance was that of a young side in their first high-pressure match.  We came out like a house on fire and couldn’t maintain it.  A few players lost their focus for a second on the goal.  Our manager flashed his lack of big-time experience.  Add it all up and it cost us two points at the end of the day.

PLAYERS

Matt Turner – Lost his mind very late in the match coming WAY off his line and was a little shaky on some crosses in his area.  Other than that, he made the big save when he had to and even got a hand to the penalty kick.

Jedi Robinson – Played his normal game using his speed to get forward and track back.  His crossing was inconsistent as usual and he was guilty of switching off on the throw-in that led to the goal.

Tim Ream – One of our best players and didn’t put a foot wrong all match.  He took a smart tactical yellow early in the second half stopping a counterattack.  Hopefully he doesn’t pick up another.

Walker Zimmerman – Cost us two points by committing an amateurish foul in the box on an attacker with his back to goal.  It’s a fundamental that is taught from the youth levels up.  Zimm said after the match, “On the way to step up to the ball, I don't see Bale come across.”  When you watch the replay you can see for yourself Walker saw Gareth the whole way.

Dest – Needed to come out 14 minutes sooner than he did since he was noticeably out of gas.  Besides that, I thought he played his normal game going forward while losing track of his defensive assignments.  Took one shot from long distance where he should have passed and his yellow wasn’t warranted. 

Musah – Also played his normal game which includes cramping up late on.  I watch almost all of his minutes at Valencia and I’ve literally never seen another footballer who cramps up as regularly as he does.  We are going to need him fully fit for Friday.

Adams – Easily our best player on the day.  He’s in the form of his life at Leeds right now and thankfully that carried over to the World Cup.

McKennie – Far too many sloppy giveaways all over the pitch.  Also didn’t have his normal bite and hustle.  I didn’t think his yellow was deserved either.  He’s apparently fit, but I’m not sure how he can play against England with only three full days to recover.

Christian Pulisic – Produced a moment of magic with his inch-perfect assist.  Other than that, his performance was decidedly mixed.  His set piece delivery was consistently terrible and he drifted into “hero ball” late holding the ball when he should have passed it.  In fairness, Wales beat him up pretty good as he was our most fouled player.

Sargent – Missed a snap-header by about 12 inches early on that would have gone in as you can see.  Had the “hockey assist” on the goal but wasn’t as impactful as I hoped he would be.  Overall, I thought he played well but I have a feeling GGG might not see it the same way.  If he doesn’t start Josh against the English Berhalter is asking to be fired.

Weah – Took his goal well and was dangerous all match making runs in behind the Welsh defense.  He is a locked in starter if healthy as I see it, both for scoring the goal and his contributions during Qualifying.  He is also the only player in American history to score at the U17, U20 and Senior World Cups.

Aaronson – Was his normal pesky/dangerous self after coming on, albeit too late.  I think he gets the nod in place of Wes on Friday.

Wright – Didn’t get much service overall, but had a nice header go wide immediately after coming on.  If Sargent doesn’t start Haji should be the man to replace him up top.

Yedlin – Had some chances to make things happen with crosses late but mishit all of them.  I know he has experience, but Scally is a better situational defender than DeAndre at this point in their respective careers.

Acosta – Took a match-saving tactical yellow at 90+10.  If doesn’t chop Gareth Bale down, Bale likely chips Turner from around midfield and we lose at the death.  Kellyn was also guilty falling asleep on the throw-in that led to Zimm’s penalty.

Morris – Shouldn’t even be on the roster.  Much less see the pitch.  Much less EVER play over Reyna.  This was a big-time head scratcher and the main talking point after the match for many.

ENGLAND

Coming into Friday’s match we are pissed off that we threw away two points.  Compared to the Three Lions who rolled Iran 6-2 and are feeling contented and good about where they stand.  Tactically this match will be far different than what Wales presented us.  For starters the English are not going to just sit back and play for a draw.  They are going to be on the front foot pressing and attacking us nonstop.  We are going to have defend for our lives and hope we can exploit England’s lack of pace on the backline with counterattacks.

With that as the backdrop here is the lineup I would use.  I’m saving McKennie, Dest and de la Torre for Iran.

  Pulisic Sargent Weah

Musah Adams Aaronson

 Jedi Ream Zimm Scally

             Turner

SUBS: Reyna, Wright, Acosta, Yedlin, Cameron Carter-Vickers

By drawing with Wales our chances of advancing to the knockout round dropped from 84% to 59%.  Another piece of bad news is that we currently lose the tie-breaker to Wales based on fair play (4 yellow cards to 2).  Some good news though is that we have advanced in all five World Cups where we avoided losing our opening match. 

If we manage that feat again it’s going to be an extreme sweat with lots of scoreboard watching.  Considering we will likely lose to England we have to play far more conservatively that we did versus Wales and try to limit the damage to our goal differential.  Assuming Wales beats Iran (2:00 AM Pacific on Black Friday) we will have to make up any goal differential and hope the English take care of business on 11/29.

There is also another nightmare scenario in which England has already clinched a spot in the knockout round and has nothing to play for on the final matchday.  They could trot out a lineup of mostly backups and play for a “gentlemen’s draw” with Wales eliminating us.  Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

United States World Cup Preview

HISTORY

I’m not sure that all of my family, friends and acquaintances realize just how much time and effort I put in to following the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT).  How is this possible you might ask since they only play 2 games every few months or so?  Well, with modern streaming services I’m able to follow every match of all of our key players in Europe.  I even write a weekly email summing up the action for a select few.

With that as the backdrop the USMNT was extremely underwhelming in CONCACAF (Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football) World Cup Qualifying (WCQ).  We ended up finishing third.  However, if not for a blown call against Jamaica, we would have finished fourth and ended up in a playoff with New Zealand.  Thank goodness CONCACAF didn’t have VAR (video assistant referee) during that match.

When the World Cup (WC) draw was announced back in April, I thought it was a good one for the USMNT (24^th in ELO) with England (14), Iran (21) and Wales (26).  Since then, the USMNT has played six matches and has consistently performed less than the sum of their parts.  Which only continues the trend from WCQ.

We will be the second youngest team at the WC with an average age of 25.59 (Ghana 25.30), but there is no doubt that this is our most talented generation of players to date.  For my money “inexperience” is not an excuse since many top footballing countries play youngsters as well.  What is the problem then?  Plain and simple, it is our manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG).

Looking at GGG’s resume it is very underwhelming for such a high-profile job.  He started off in the second tier of Swedish football at Hammarby (2011-13) and lasted 46 matches until he was fired for "lack of attacking play."  He then went to Columbus in MLS where in five seasons (2013-18) he finished 7^th, 4^th, 18^th, 5^th and 10^th and never won a trophy of any kind. 

So how did he get the job you might ask?  Well, USMNT GM Earnie Stewart (now Sporting Director of US Soccer) only interviewed two people to be the new US manager.  That and GGG’s brother Jay was CCO of US Soccer at the time.  The reason this matters now is because GGG has a dogmatic approach to his “system.”  Meaning he chooses players that fit his “system” above all else. 

To back up a bit, the job of any and all national team managers is to identify their most talented players and develop a formation and tactics that maximize the talent at their disposal.  GGG would rather try and fit a square peg in a round hole than do that.  If some of our most talented players don’t fit the “system” he has no qualms about leaving them out of the team. 

I understand many managers around the globe have their favorite players, but there are levels of play that matter in world football.  For example, if player X is doing a job in MLS and player Y is doing a similar job at a higher level in Europe it would stand to reason that player Y gets the national team call.  Unfortunately, things don’t work like that in GGG’s head, and as you can see logically this make no sense. 

The point of all this is that our players have definitely taken notice.  During our two most recent friendlies in September it was crystal clear to me that I was a watching a team that was no longer listening to their manager’s voice.  You can only call-in lesser players and use the wrong tactics for so long before the players start trying to do everything on their own, manager be damned.

It sucks that it has come to this at the exact wrong time, but there is a silver lining.  The other teams in Group B are all having issues of their own.  Iran fired their manager in June and could be missing 2 or 3 of their best players because of injury or suspension.

England has not won a match outright since March and were recently relegated out of UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) Nations League A.  Their manager, Gareth Southgate, is probably under more fire than GGG and they have some significant injuries as well.

Wales is playing in their first WC in 64 years but they were also relegated out of UEFA Nations League A in September.  They have only won two matches since March, and both were in the playoffs of UEFA WCQ.  Gareth Bale is the name everyone knows but he’s not even a 60-minute player in MLS anymore.  Likewise, a lot of the veteran Welsh players are on their way out in a generational shift.

Another silver lining to consider is that matches in CONCACAF normally feature extremely poor pitches, worse referees and opposition tactics that consist of “kick our good players every time they get on the ball.”  In the WC the pitches will be immaculate, the refs should be of a higher quality and opponents will actually try and play legitimate football against us.

ROSTER

GGG’s biggest flaws as USMNT manager have been his roster selection, starting XI selection and frequently getting his gameday tactics wrong while being very slow to adjust them in real time.  That is why I was both shocked and pleasantly surprised when the roster was announced.  He did some very un-GGG-like things.

The biggest was not calling in goalkeeper Zack Steffen.  Truth be told I don’t think Steffen deserved to be on the roster given his lack of form over the last two years.  However, when healthy Zack was GGG’s guy all throughout WCQ and also played for Berhalter in Columbus.  All in all, this was a great call by GGG.  It was just completely unexpected and out of character for him.

The next surprise and biggest snub was the exclusion of 19-year-old striker Ricardo Pepi.  Another guy that when you look at his body of work over the past year probably didn’t deserve the call yet.  Ricardo more or less saved GGG’s job during the first WCQ window when he had a goal and two assists during the second half in Honduras.  That earned him a lot of equity when he didn’t score for club or country for almost a year after that.  However, he is scoring now and yet he somehow was left out.  This choice was maybe slightly less shocking than Steffen, but not by much.

Those two decisions aside GGG still called in nine MLS players, which is way too many in this day and age of US Soccer.  I’m pretty happy with our roster overall but there are five changes I’d make.  All are MLS players and I’d replace them with guys starting and playing first division minutes in Europe.  Of those five, three of them probably won’t play anyway.  I’m of the mind that you take young guys to get experience in those roles rather than veteran “locker room vibe” types.

Our “vibe” players are third string keeper Sean Johnson (fine with him), right back Shaq Moore, midfielder Christian Roldan and winger Jordan Morris.  In the case of Moore there is no reason to carry four right backs.  I’d prefer a fifth central defender instead and Mark McKenzie (Genk, Belgium) is that guy.  Rather than Morris I would have selected 20-year-old Malik Tillman (Rangers, Scotland).  Neither of them will see the pitch anyway but Malik at least has a future with the USMNT.  Lastly, I’m dropping Roldan for Djordje Mihailovic (AZ Alkmaar, Holland) because I trust Djordje more in a break glass in case of emergency kind of way.  Again, all this stuff is splitting hairs at the bottom of the roster.

Now to the real concerns which are striker Jesús Ferreira and central defender Aaron Long.  Both of these guys are GGG favorites who have no business being on the roster.  Worse yet, they both figure to be starters just like I feared would be the case with Steffen.  Long was simply not very good in MLS this season and you better believe ALL of our opponents will be targeting him on our backline.  I’d replace him with Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes, France) who has the second biggest gripe for being excluded.

Ferreira’s claim to fame is that he possesses a different skill set than the rest of our central forwards.  The problem with that is he has proven time and again that his style of play does not translate at the highest level.  He has a tendency to miss sitters under pressure and is also only 5’8, so he offers no physicality and absolutely nothing in the air.  It frustrates me to no end that he is GGG’s #1.  The guy is a liability against top sides, plain and simple.  Since Jesús would not play for me in his stead I’m bringing Pepi (Groningen, Holland).  I’d rather have Ricardo get the experience on the bench than someone who will no longer be in the mix come 2026.

As far as true snubs go of guys that I haven’t mentioned yet, defender Reggie Cannon and winger Paul Arriola being left out surprised a lot of people because they were GGG favorites during WCQ.  John Brooks, Jordan Pefok, Brandon Vazquez and Eryk Williamson were never truly in the mix for Berhalter.

Finally, Miles Robinson (Achilles) and Chris Richards (hamstring) would have likely been our starting central defender pairing had they been healthy.  Sam Vines (broken leg) would have also been in the mix as our second-best left-footed fullback.

WALES

Now for some good news!  Unlike in WCQ the vast majority of our “core” guys are here should be ready to go on matchday 1.  There are some small injury concerns with keeper Matt Turner, midfielders Weston McKennie & Luca de la Torre and fullbacks Sergiño Dest & Antonee “Jedi” Robinson.  Per GGG though they are all trending to be fully fit in time.  If one of them or someone else is deemed not fit enough US Soccer can replace any player up 24 hours prior to Wales match.

When it comes to our starting XI, I’d say eight positions are pretty much locked in barring injury.  The defense will be Turner in goal, Dest at right back, Jedi at left back and Walker Zimmerman at right center back.  The “MMA Midfield” of McKennie, Yunus Musah and Tyler Adams are poised to announce themselves to the world in Qatar.  If Wes isn’t fit enough in time, I expect Brenden Aaronson to take his spot.  The frontline will be Christian Pulisic on the left and either Gio Reyna or Tim Weah on the right.

Of that core the only player that gives me pause is 29-year-old Zimmerman.  He has certainly proved himself against MLS/CONCACAF level opposition and he is good in the air.  The problem is he wasn’t great in MLS this season, is slow-footed and not a great passer.  He’s also completely untested at the highest level since he didn’t become a USMNT regular until 2021.

I saved GGG’s final roster surprise for here, and that’s 35-year-old left center back Tim Ream.  Ream’s last appearance for the USMNT was in September of 2021.  Basically, Walker replaced him on the team.  What changed to call Tim back in?  Besides injuries to Robinson and Richards, Ream has been captaining a Fulham side that currently sits 9^th in the Premier League (EPL) table.  He obviously lost his wheels long ago, but he makes up for it with smart positioning and great distribution. 

Don’t believe me?  Take Manchester City Manager Pep Guardiola’s word for it.  After City’s recent match with Fulham Guardiola walked up to Tim and said “If you were 24 instead of 34, you’d be playing for me.”  Ream replied “It’s too bad I’m not 34, I’m 35.”

I’ve been worried that Long was going to be the guy to partner with Zimmerman, but GGG made some comments on his media tour after the roster release that makes me think Ream might be that guy now.  At least in the Wales and England matches since he is familiar with all those players from his years in the EPL and English second tier (EFL).  Don’t get me wrong, Tim is not ideal but he is a far better option than Aaron for sure.

The last spot that is up for grabs is striker and there are three options; Ferreira, Josh Sargent and Haji Wright.  I’ve already stated that Jesús is GGG’s guy, but Berhalter made some similar comments about Sargent like he did with Ream.  Josh has also played in the EPL and EFL so he will know the defenders on Wales and England better than the other two.  If it was up to me, I’d start Sargent every match and use Wright as a sub when needed.  Sadly, it’s not up to me, but GGG might finally be turning a corner to logic and reality.  At least I hope he is.

When you break down both rosters the USMNT actually has more talent than Wales.  The flip side of that is Welsh Manager Rob Page is far superior to GGG.  Page gets his boys to play like a cohesive unit superior to the sum of their parts.  So even though the USMNT is more talented on paper, I don’t anticipate the match to play out like that at all.

I expect Wales to follow the script on how to beat us.  They will sit in a compressed mid-block and try and to squeeze the MMA Midfield off the ball.  This in turn will force our center backs to be distributors, which none of them are good at except Ream.  This will also compel our frontline to drop deep to get on the ball.  If you see Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and the strikers coming back into midfield to get touches you know we are in trouble.  Then the Welsh will pounce on any mistakes we make and try to burn us on a counterattack.

I’m hoping against hope that GGG comes to his senses in time and that we stop trying to build out of the back and play beautiful football.  Instead, we should play more direct and try to use our athleticism to win second balls.  We should also sit back and try and use our speed to hit teams on the counter.  Unfortunately, GGG has thus far proven to be tactically inflexible so expect us to high-press and take our chances from there.

I’ve always been of the mind that our talent dictates that we should play out of a 4-2-3-1.  However, considering that GGG always has us lined up in a 4-3-3 this is my preferred lineup if everyone is healthy.

  Pulisic Sargent Weah

McKennie Adams Musah

  Jedi Ream Zimm Dest

              Turner

SUBS: Reyna, Aaronson, Wright, Joe Scally, de la Torre

Historically when you win your first group stage match at the WC you advance to the knockout round 84% of the time.  Hence if we lose to Wales we are likely done unless we somehow manage to beat England.  A draw versus the Welsh would keep us alive but we’d be on life support.

The optimistic take is that our most talented guys have literally never all played together at the senior level.  That alone should be enough to bring a smile to any American’s face.  The pessimistic take is that we only have one player with prior WC experience (DeAndre Yedlin) and have not looked like a connected or organized group lately.  The pragmatic take obviously falls somewhere in between there. 

As someone who watches every minute of this team, I can’t ignore the way our performances have been trending since WCQ began.  My worst fear is that this promising young group gets embarrassed and looks overmatched at the biggest sporting event in the world.  I’ll be rooting as hard as I can for us to beat the Dragons at 11:00 AM Pacific on Monday 11/21.  Otherwise, we will probably be looking for a new manager come December. 

LET’S FUCKING GO!!!