HISTORY
I’m not sure that all of my family, friends and
acquaintances realize just how much time and effort I put in to following the
United States Men’s National Team (USMNT).
How is this possible you might ask since they only play 2 games every
few months or so? Well, with modern
streaming services I’m able to follow every match of all of our key players in
Europe. I even write a weekly email
summing up the action for a select few.
With that as the backdrop the USMNT was extremely
underwhelming in CONCACAF (Confederation of North, Central America and
Caribbean Association Football) World Cup Qualifying (WCQ). We ended up finishing third. However, if not for a blown call against
Jamaica, we would have finished fourth and ended up in a playoff with New
Zealand. Thank goodness CONCACAF didn’t
have VAR (video assistant referee) during that match.
When the World Cup (WC) draw was announced back in April, I
thought it was a good one for the USMNT (24th in ELO) with England (14), Iran (21) and Wales
(26). Since then, the USMNT has played
six matches and has consistently performed less than the sum of their
parts. Which only continues the trend
from WCQ.
We will be the second youngest team at the WC with an
average age of 25.59 (Ghana 25.30), but there is no doubt that this is our most
talented generation of players to date.
For my money “inexperience” is not an excuse since many top footballing
countries play youngsters as well. What
is the problem then? Plain and simple,
it is our manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG).
Looking at GGG’s resume it is very underwhelming for such a high-profile
job. He started off in the second tier
of Swedish football at Hammarby (2011-13) and lasted 46 matches until he was
fired for "lack of attacking play."
He then went to Columbus in MLS where in five seasons (2013-18) he
finished 7th, 4th, 18th, 5th and 10th
and never won a trophy of any kind.
So how did he get the job you might ask? Well, USMNT GM Earnie Stewart (now Sporting
Director of US Soccer) only interviewed two people to be the new US manager. That and GGG’s brother Jay was CCO of US
Soccer at the time. The reason this
matters now is because GGG has a dogmatic approach to his “system.” Meaning he chooses players that fit his
“system” above all else.
To back up a bit, the job of any and all national team
managers is to identify their most talented players and develop a formation and
tactics that maximize the talent at their disposal. GGG would rather try and fit a square peg in
a round hole than do that. If some of
our most talented players don’t fit the “system” he has no qualms about leaving
them out of the team.
I understand many managers around the globe have their
favorite players, but there are levels of play that matter in world
football. For example, if player X is
doing a job in MLS and player Y is doing a similar job at a higher level in
Europe it would stand to reason that player Y gets the national team call. Unfortunately, things don’t work like that in
GGG’s head, and as you can see logically this make no sense.
The point of all this is that our players have definitely
taken notice. During our two most recent
friendlies in September it was crystal clear to me that I was a watching a team
that was no longer listening to their manager’s voice. You can only call-in lesser players and use
the wrong tactics for so long before the players start trying to do everything
on their own, manager be damned.
It sucks that it has come to this at the exact wrong time,
but there is a silver lining. The other
teams in Group B are all having issues of their own. Iran fired their manager in June and could be
missing 2 or 3 of their best players because of injury or suspension.
England has not won a match outright since March and were
recently relegated out of UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) Nations
League A. Their manager, Gareth
Southgate, is probably under more fire than GGG and they have some significant
injuries as well.
Wales is playing in their first WC in 64 years but they were
also relegated out of UEFA Nations League A in September. They have only won two matches since March,
and both were in the playoffs of UEFA WCQ.
Gareth Bale is the name everyone knows but he’s not even a 60-minute
player in MLS anymore. Likewise, a lot
of the veteran Welsh players are on their way out in a generational shift.
Another silver lining to consider is that matches in CONCACAF
normally feature extremely poor pitches, worse referees and opposition tactics
that consist of “kick our good players every time they get on the ball.” In the WC the pitches will be immaculate, the
refs should be of a higher quality and opponents will actually try and play legitimate
football against us.
ROSTER
GGG’s biggest flaws as USMNT manager have been his roster
selection, starting XI selection and frequently getting his gameday tactics
wrong while being very slow to adjust them in real time. That is why I was both shocked and pleasantly
surprised when the roster was announced.
He did some very un-GGG-like things.
The biggest was not calling in goalkeeper Zack Steffen. Truth be told I don’t think Steffen deserved
to be on the roster given his lack of form over the last two years. However, when healthy Zack was GGG’s guy all
throughout WCQ and also played for Berhalter in Columbus. All in all, this was a great call by GGG. It was just completely unexpected and out of
character for him.
The next surprise and biggest snub was the exclusion of 19-year-old
striker Ricardo Pepi. Another guy that
when you look at his body of work over the past year probably didn’t deserve
the call yet. Ricardo more or less saved
GGG’s job during the first WCQ window when he had a goal and two assists during
the second half in Honduras. That earned
him a lot of equity when he didn’t score for club or country for almost a year
after that. However, he is scoring now
and yet he somehow was left out. This choice
was maybe slightly less shocking than Steffen, but not by much.
Those two decisions aside GGG still called in nine
MLS players, which is way too many in this day and age of US Soccer. I’m pretty happy with our roster overall but
there are five changes I’d make. All are
MLS players and I’d replace them with guys starting and playing first division
minutes in Europe. Of those five, three
of them probably won’t play anyway. I’m
of the mind that you take young guys to get experience in those roles rather
than veteran “locker room vibe” types.
Our “vibe” players are third string keeper Sean Johnson
(fine with him), right back Shaq Moore, midfielder Christian Roldan and winger
Jordan Morris. In the case of Moore
there is no reason to carry four right backs.
I’d prefer a fifth central defender instead and Mark McKenzie (Genk, Belgium)
is that guy. Rather than Morris I would
have selected 20-year-old Malik Tillman (Rangers, Scotland). Neither of them will see the pitch anyway but
Malik at least has a future with the USMNT.
Lastly, I’m dropping Roldan for Djordje Mihailovic (AZ Alkmaar, Holland)
because I trust Djordje more in a break glass in case of emergency kind of
way. Again, all this stuff is splitting
hairs at the bottom of the roster.
Now to the real concerns which are striker Jesús Ferreira
and central defender Aaron Long. Both of
these guys are GGG favorites who have no business being on the roster. Worse yet, they both figure to be starters
just like I feared would be the case with Steffen. Long was simply not very good in MLS this
season and you better believe ALL of our opponents will be targeting him on our
backline. I’d replace him with Erik
Palmer-Brown (Troyes, France) who has the second biggest gripe for being
excluded.
Ferreira’s claim to fame is that he possesses a different
skill set than the rest of our central forwards. The problem with that is he has proven time
and again that his style of play does not translate at the highest level. He has a tendency to miss sitters under
pressure and is also only 5’8, so he offers no physicality and absolutely
nothing in the air. It frustrates me to
no end that he is GGG’s #1. The guy is a
liability against top sides, plain and simple.
Since Jesús would not play for me in his stead I’m bringing Pepi
(Groningen, Holland). I’d rather have
Ricardo get the experience on the bench than someone who will no longer be in
the mix come 2026.
As far as true snubs go of guys that I haven’t mentioned yet,
defender Reggie Cannon and winger Paul Arriola being left out surprised a lot
of people because they were GGG favorites during WCQ. John Brooks, Jordan Pefok, Brandon Vazquez
and Eryk Williamson were never truly in the mix for Berhalter.
Finally, Miles Robinson (Achilles) and Chris Richards
(hamstring) would have likely been our starting central defender pairing had
they been healthy. Sam Vines (broken
leg) would have also been in the mix as our second-best left-footed fullback.
WALES
Now for some good news!
Unlike in WCQ the vast majority of our “core” guys are here should be
ready to go on matchday 1. There are
some small injury concerns with keeper Matt Turner, midfielders Weston McKennie
& Luca de la Torre and fullbacks Sergiño Dest & Antonee “Jedi”
Robinson. Per GGG though they are all
trending to be fully fit in time. If one
of them or someone else is deemed not fit enough US Soccer can replace any
player up 24 hours prior to Wales match.
When it comes to our starting XI, I’d say eight positions
are pretty much locked in barring injury.
The defense will be Turner in goal, Dest at right back, Jedi at left
back and Walker Zimmerman at right center back.
The “MMA Midfield” of McKennie, Yunus Musah and Tyler Adams are poised
to announce themselves to the world in Qatar.
If Wes isn’t fit enough in time, I expect Brenden Aaronson to take his
spot. The frontline will be Christian
Pulisic on the left and either Gio Reyna or Tim Weah on the right.
Of that core the only player that gives me pause is 29-year-old
Zimmerman. He has certainly proved
himself against MLS/CONCACAF level opposition and he is good in the air. The problem is he wasn’t great in MLS this
season, is slow-footed and not a great passer.
He’s also completely untested at the highest level since he didn’t
become a USMNT regular until 2021.
I saved GGG’s final roster surprise for here, and that’s
35-year-old left center back Tim Ream.
Ream’s last appearance for the USMNT was in September of 2021. Basically, Walker replaced him on the
team. What changed to call Tim back
in? Besides injuries to Robinson and
Richards, Ream has been captaining a Fulham side that currently sits 9th
in the Premier League (EPL) table. He
obviously lost his wheels long ago, but he makes up for it with smart
positioning and great distribution.
Don’t believe me? Take Manchester City Manager Pep Guardiola’s
word for it. After City’s recent match
with Fulham Guardiola walked up to Tim and said “If you were 24 instead of 34,
you’d be playing for me.” Ream replied
“It’s too bad I’m not 34, I’m 35.”
I’ve been worried that Long was going to be the guy to
partner with Zimmerman, but GGG made some comments on his media tour after the
roster release that makes me think Ream might be that guy now. At least in the Wales and England matches
since he is familiar with all those players from his years in the EPL and English
second tier (EFL). Don’t get me wrong,
Tim is not ideal but he is a far better option than Aaron for sure.
The last spot that is up for grabs is striker and there are
three options; Ferreira, Josh Sargent and Haji Wright. I’ve already stated that Jesús is GGG’s guy,
but Berhalter made some similar comments about Sargent like he did with
Ream. Josh has also played in the EPL
and EFL so he will know the defenders on Wales and England better than the
other two. If it was up to me, I’d start
Sargent every match and use Wright as a sub when needed. Sadly, it’s not up to me, but GGG might
finally be turning a corner to logic and reality. At least I hope he is.
When you break down both rosters the USMNT actually has more
talent than Wales. The flip side of that
is Welsh Manager Rob Page is far superior to GGG. Page gets his boys to play like a cohesive
unit superior to the sum of their parts.
So even though the USMNT is more talented on paper, I don’t anticipate
the match to play out like that at all.
I expect Wales to follow the script on how to beat us. They will sit in a compressed mid-block and
try and to squeeze the MMA Midfield off the ball. This in turn will force our center backs to
be distributors, which none of them are good at except Ream. This will also compel our frontline to drop
deep to get on the ball. If you see
Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and the strikers coming back into midfield to get touches
you know we are in trouble. Then the
Welsh will pounce on any mistakes we make and try to burn us on a
counterattack.
I’m hoping against hope that GGG comes to his senses in time
and that we stop trying to build out of the back and play beautiful
football. Instead, we should play more
direct and try to use our athleticism to win second balls. We should also sit back and try and use our
speed to hit teams on the counter.
Unfortunately, GGG has thus far proven to be tactically inflexible so
expect us to high-press and take our chances from there.
I’ve always been of the mind that our talent dictates that we
should play out of a 4-2-3-1. However, considering
that GGG always has us lined up in a 4-3-3 this is my preferred lineup if
everyone is healthy.
Pulisic Sargent
Weah
McKennie Adams Musah
Jedi Ream Zimm
Dest
Turner
SUBS: Reyna, Aaronson, Wright, Joe Scally, de la Torre
Historically when you win your first group stage match at
the WC you advance to the knockout round 84% of the time. Hence if we lose to Wales we are likely done
unless we somehow manage to beat England.
A draw versus the Welsh would keep us alive but we’d be on life support.
The optimistic take is that our most talented guys have
literally never all played together at the senior level. That alone should be enough to bring a smile
to any American’s face. The pessimistic
take is that we only have one player with prior WC experience (DeAndre Yedlin)
and have not looked like a connected or organized group lately. The pragmatic take obviously falls somewhere
in between there.
As someone who watches every minute of this team, I can’t
ignore the way our performances have been trending since WCQ began. My worst fear is that this promising young group
gets embarrassed and looks overmatched at the biggest sporting event in the
world. I’ll be rooting as hard as I can
for us to beat the Dragons at 11:00 AM Pacific on Monday 11/21. Otherwise, we will probably be looking for a
new manager come December.
LET’S FUCKING GO!!!
