Russia 2018: A Post Mortem

It’s been a week now and I think I’m calmed down and rational enough to give my take on what happened and where the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) goes from here.  Heading into the final fixture date at Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) there where 27 possible scenarios and only a 4% chance of the USMNT, Mexico and Costa Rica all losing.  Well, you can guess what happened next.

I don’t want to hear about the Panama goal that didn’t actually cross the line either.  I went into the T&T match expecting both Mexico and Costa Rica to lay down and lose.  I also expected the referee from El Salvador to do us no favors in T&T and I was correct on both accounts.  What I didn’t expect is how much glee the rest of CONCACAF would take in us not qualifying for the World Cup (WC).  I’m not sure what the USMNT did to the rest of the region other than make tons of money for everyone in it? 

(Just a quick sidebar here on the Panama non-goal and other blatantly missed calls in the Hexagonal (Hex) round.  Like when Jozy Altidore was clearly pulled down in the box by Kendall Waston in the 23^rd minute against Costa Rica on fixture date six.  CONCACAF needs to implement Video Assistant Referee (VAR) immediately.  CONCACAF is well known as the most corrupt association in FIFA and eliminating the consistently dreadful mistakes by referees with VAR would go a long way toward solving that.)

About the only good thing I can think of about missing the WC is that most casual fans didn’t see it happen.  The game was on beIN Sports due to an arcane FIFA rule about the television rights for away World Cup Qualifiers (WCQ’s) being left up to the highest bidder.  Whereas home WCQ’s are owned by the United States Soccer Federation (USSF). 

I have a feeling when June rolls around there will be a lot of casual American sports fans asking what group the USMNT is in and when do they play.  There’s a good reason for that too.  This will be the first time the USMNT misses the WC since 1986.  That streak of seven straight was the longest streak in CONCACAF and means several generations of fans might not even know that the USMNT actually has to play 16 matches over two years to qualify.

This was the first time ever that the USMNT lost four matches in the Hex, including two at home!  The general rule of thumb to qualify for the WC is to win all your home matches and steal some points on the road.  The USMNT has used this exact formula to finish first in the last three Hex’s and hadn’t lost a home WCQ since 2001.  So who’s to blame for this embarrassing debacle?  Well you have to start at the very top with USSF President Sunil Gulati. 

Gulati is an economics professor at Columbia University that was first elected President of the USSF in March of 2006.  He ran unopposed in both 2010 and 2014 to gain reelection.  There’s no denying the role Sunil has played in elevating the stature of U.S. Soccer in this country and abroad.  He also took the federation from near bankruptcy to sitting on a reported $100 million surplus right now (he is an economics professor after all).  But he made several mistakes during this and the previous qualifying cycle that got us here.

The first was extending Jürgen Klinsmann’s contract as Manager in December of 2013 AND naming him Technical Director of U.S. Soccer.  Never mind that this was before the 2014 WC in Brazil had even started.  Where we could have easily not advanced out of the Group of Death.  The jobs of Manager and Technical Director are often at cross purposes so this made Sunil’s choice even more confusing.

That decision most likely led Gulati to hang on to Klinsmann for too long.  There were signs Jürgen needed to go long before starting out the Hex with two losses.  First there was the fourth-place finish in the 2015 Gold Cup which saw the USMNT lose at home to a Caribbean side (Jamaica) for the first time since 1968.  Then there was the loss to Mexico in the CONCACAF Cup that cost the USMNT a ticket to the Confederations Cup.  If those two weren’t enough (hint: they were) there was the 0-2 loss in Guatemala during the fourth round of CONCACAF qualifying (the round prior to the Hex). 

A fourth-place finish at the Copa América Centenario, which was held in the United States, probably put a band-aid on all that.  But Sunil also made the call to play the home Costa Rica match right outside of New York City where the biggest Costa Rican population in the country resides.  Shockingly there were more fans of the Ticos in Harrison, NJ than American Outlaws on that day.

Speaking of the American Outlaws, they took the unprecedented step of releasing a statement calling for Gulati’s head.  “Dramatic changes must be made at many levels, but it all starts at the top.  In no uncertain terms, the President of the United States Soccer Federation, Sunil Gulati, must go.  Despite past success he has presided over an unmitigated disaster and the Federation needs fresh leadership and ideas from top to bottom.”

Sunil’s response to the Outlaws, the media and people like me was: “I take full responsibility, but no, I don’t plan to resign.  You don’t make wholesale changes based on the ball being 2 inches wide or 2 inches in,” he said, referring to Clint Dempsey’s late attempt against T&T that hit the post.  “So, we will look at everything, obviously, all our programs, both the national team and all the development stuff.  But we’ve got some pieces in place that we think are very good and are coming along.”

To that the Outlaws responded with: “U.S. fans are asking for change and this disappointingly states that little is needed.  We will continue to be a reasonable voice and action for change.”

February 10, 2018 is when USSF’s next Presidential election will take place.  Boston attorney Steve Gans has already said he will run against Gulati and others like former USMNT star Eric Wynalda are considering it.  The Board of Directors at U.S. Soccer are the people who vote for the USSF President and to them I say remember what Albert Einstein said the definition of insanity is.  Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

The final nail in both Sunil’s coffin and our WC chances was when he picked the “safe” choice in Bruce Arena to replace Klinsmann.  I’m on record the day he was hired as saying it was a massive mistake and we would eventually regret it.  I didn’t want to be right but I unfortunately turned out to be.  I have nothing against Bruce personally but reading quotes from him over recent years it was clear that he was stuck in the “old ways” of doing things. 

I give him full credit for taking us to our only Quarterfinal ever in the 2002 WC.  But things changed a lot in the 15 years since that biggest success.  The main thing being that not all the best USMNT players ply their trade in MLS anymore.  That is where Jürgen and Bruce differed the most.  Klinsmann almost completely ignored MLS where Arena ignored all other leagues except MLS and Liga MX.  Our next Manager must be able to strike a balance between our domestic league and the rest of the player pool all over the world.

When Bruce took over the USMNT was in sixth place in the Hex and we ended up at fifth.  Arena won three, lost three and drew two during the Hex.  He also inexplicably kept the same exact same starting XI for the T&T match when he had made several lineup changes in all of the other previous road fixtures.  And unlike any other Manager of a national team with expectations he didn’t resign immediately at his post-match press conference in T&T.  Instead he waited three days to deliver some truly out of touch remarks…

“There’s nothing wrong with what we're doing.  Certainly, as our league grows, it advances the national team program.  We have some good young players come up.  Nothing has to change.  To make any kind of crazy changes I think would be foolish.  We’re building a good system in our professional league.  We have players playing abroad of some quality.  There’s enough there.  There’s no excuses for us not qualifying for the World Cup.  While this is a difficult time, I maintain a fierce belief that we are heading in the right direction.  I believe in the American player and the American coach, and with our combined efforts the future remains bright.”

So in summary, Gulati and Arena who were in charge for the most humiliating loss in USMNT history both think things are fine and nothing needs to change.  WHAT?!?!  Maybe they will be singing a different tune when Fox Sports’ revenue and ratings tank for Russia 2018.  Or maybe when Nike comes calling because there is no uptick in merchandise sales this summer.  The most likely factor to make them see the light however will be when their beloved MLS doesn’t see a bounce in interest come July.  And don’t forget youth soccer in this country which always see participation grow after a WC where the USMNT has a good showing.

Beyond not seeing the writing on the wall what really irks me about Sunil is that he still holds two serious positions of power in world fúbol.  He’s a member of the FIFA Council until 2021 and also Chairman of the joint bid between the United States, Mexico and Canada to host the 2026 WC.  That should be more than enough power to stroke his ego if he decides to do the right thing and not run for reelection. 

Since our next competitive match isn’t until the 2019 Gold Cup there is no rush to name a permanent replacement for Arena.  The very earliest the next non-interim Manager should be named is after the USSF Presidential election takes place in February.  Whoever that person is should have the freedom to take the federation and the USMNT in the direction that they were elected to. 

In the meantime our next scheduled friendly in is Portugal on 11/14.  That roster and all subsequent rosters for the friendlies that follow should be comprised of mostly players currently under the age of 26.  With some vets sprinkled in to show them the ropes.  During this whole fallout period I haven’t heard any pundits publicly calling out the individual players that failed so miserably anywhere.  So here is the list of 30 players that featured in the Hex and their approximate ages for Qatar 2022.

Kellyn Acosta (27) – I had high hopes for him in this qualifying cycle but he proved to be not quite ready for prime time.  I still have faith in him though and with more seasoning he’ll play a big part in the run up to Qatar.

Jozy Altidore (32) – Swept under the rug are the two wide open changes he missed against T&T.  The first came in the 7^th minute with the match still 0-0.  He was able to turn and shoot inside the six-yard box with no one on him and missed the target completely.  The next came in the 54^th minute off a set piece when he got a free header and missed the goal high again.  Unfortunately, this has been the story of his career; tantalizing potential mixed with frustrating inconsistency.  While I’d love to say we can move on from him he’s young enough to still have a few good years left and could be a super-sub off the bench in 2022. 

Paul Arriola (27) – For my money he made the best impression of any new player over the last five matches of the Hex.  He has a little bite to his game, works hard and actually plays like he gives a crap if we win.  At the very least he’s a bench player in Qatar.

DaMarcus Beasley (40) – He’s always been a favorite of mine, but the fact that he’s even on this list says a whole lot about the state of the left back position for U.S. Soccer.  On the flip side, it looks like he’ll end up as the only American to ever play in four World Cups.

Alejandro Bedoya (35) – In hindsight I think there’s a good argument that can be made that he should have played instead of Nagbe over the last few matches of the Hex due to his tireless work rate.  2022 is not in the cards for him though.

Matt Besler (35) – He was our most consistent center back in the Hex but with all the talented youth coming up behind him his time will be well over by Qatar.

Michael Bradley (35) – After the big two at the top no one deserves more blame than our “Captain for Life” and vocal leader.  Plain and simple, he’s just not that good any more, and I think leaving Europe for MLS is his prime played a big part in that.  He’s still incredibly fit and can deliver a moment of magic here and there, but I’m just sick to death of his constant backwards passing.  U.S. Soccer needs to turn the page from him and it can’t happen quickly enough for me.

John Brooks (29) – He was injured for most of the Hex but if he can stay healthy he’ll be in the mix to start at center back in 2022.

Geoff Cameron (37) – I said before the T&T match that I would have started him over González, and only if Arena had listened to me.  His time with the USMNT is over now.

Timothy Chandler (32) – There are conflicting reports out there about his recent participation.  Some say he wasn’t called in and others say he turned down invitations.  Whatever the case may be we could have used his athleticism down the stretch even if he’s not always mentally sharp when on the pitch for us.  I’m guessing he’s already played his last game in a United States kit.

Clint Dempsey (39) – He accepted his role as a super-sub without much of a fuss and was extra-dangerous in the second half against T&T.  I assume he’ll stick around long enough to break Landon Donovan’s goal scoring record and possibly get a farewell match too, but the dream of being the fourth player to score in four World Cups is over.

Benny Feilhaber (37) – His skill set is one the USMNT seemed to be missing throughout the Hex but he was ignored by both Klinsmann and Arena.  I think he could have been a factor but we’ll never know.  Not shot he’s in Qatar.

Omar González (34) – Of his killer own goal in T&T he said, “I think for myself, it’s one that will haunt me forever.”  Damn skippy jackass!  If he wasn’t so shaky in general I’d be more forgiving, but that was far from his only gaffe during the Hex.  It just happened to be the costliest one.  He’s done with the national team and is right to hang his head in shame.

Lynden Gooch (26) – This is an example of a guy that Jürgen gave a chance to that Bruce wouldn’t even look at.  He only played 20 minutes in one match but he was fearless, quick and could deliver a cross. He needs to be on the team for the November friendlies in Europe and could be starter in 2022.

Brad Guzan (38) – This cycle was supposed to be the one where he took over as our starting keeper.  He was given ample opportunity to do so and couldn’t.  I suppose there’s an outside chance he’s on the plane to Qatar as a backup.

Tim Howard (43) – He was never the same after injuring his right adductor in the first match of the Hex against Mexico.  People are giving him a pass on both goals in T&T but the goalzo from Alvin Jones is clearly on him as I see it.  That’s not the only one either.  Much like Bradley he’s just not that good anymore and has been living off his reputation in recent times.

Fabian Johnson (34) – This guy just oozes talent but his commitment level has been on the decline ever since the WC in Brazil.  He could potentially be part of the 2022 squad but I don’t think he wants it that bad anymore.  He’s most likely played his last match for the USMNT.

Jermaine Jones (40) – I wanted to move on from him immediately after Brazil but multiple injuries made that a moot point.  That said, we missed the bite he brought to our midfield badly.  I never realized it before, but without him on the pitch the USMNT has no one to kick the other team’s best player in the shin or stomp on their foot.  We needed his presence over the final four matches.

Sacha Kljestan (37) – His skill set is one the USMNT seemed to be missing throughout the Hex but he was mostly ignored by both Klinsmann and Arena.  I think he could have been a factor but we’ll never know.  Not shot he’s around by 2022.

Sebastian Lletget (30) – His time with the USMNT lasted only 18 minutes before he suffered a serious injury that cost him this entire MLS season.  He managed to score a goal though and he just might have been the missing puzzle piece in the midfield that could have partnered with Bradley.  He’s certainly on the radar for Qatar too.

Dax McCarty (35) – This is an example of an Arena guy that Klinsmann never even considered.  He only got 33 minutes total during the Hex but he is another candidate that maybe could have replaced Jones alongside Bradley.  There’s no way he’s on the plane for 2022 though.

Jordan Morris (27) – He did well in his opportunities and is a near lock to be in Qatar.  In fact, he has a decent shot at starting up top as a forward in 2022.

Darlington Nagbe (32) – No one pissed me off as much as he did versus T&T.  He just didn’t hustle at all.  Or care enough to grasp how big the moment really was for him.  I couldn’t count how many times he jogged up to a player with the ball while defending.  I wasn’t the only one who noticed either.  I think this quote from Bedoya is directed square at Nagbe’s jaw: “I’m not the guy that’s going to do step overs one-on-one.  But for me, sitting on the bench, watching guys not really getting stuck in — I just didn’t feel the proper energy out on the field.  We were kind of complacent.  It was kind of lethargic.”  This is the other change I wanted prior to the match kicking off; Bedoya in for Nagbe.  I think in the end though the joke will be on Darlington.  In five years he’s not going to be anywhere near as quick as he is now, and without speed he brings little else to the table.  So I’m calling it right now, he missed his one and only chance to play on the biggest stage in the world.  He’ll have the rest of his life to think about his effort level in the biggest match he ever played in.  

Michael Orozco (36) – He was reliable like always when called upon but the veteran backline super-sub won’t be in Qatar.

Christian Pulisic (24) – He had a hand in 12 out of our 17 goals in the Hex by scoring, assisting or winning a free kick which led to a goal.  It is an absolute crying shame that he went from four World Cups to three.  Just sickening really.  The good news is that I think help is on the way for 2022 in the form of Josh Sargent and other youngsters.  It’s going to be an excruciatingly long five years for him though.

Tim Ream (35) – He was up and down when given chances and his lack of foot speed did him in on a few occasions.  He won’t be in the picture anymore by 2022.

Jorge Villafaña (33) – I was screaming at Jürgen for years to give him a shot but it took until Arena was hired for Jorge to get his first chance.  He certainly solidified the left back position but at the international level he just isn’t quick enough to mark top-flight wingers.  In five years he won’t be any faster so no Qatar for him.

Bobby Wood (29) – He was massive throughout the Hex and no more so than his near-bacon saving goal in Honduras that salvaged a 1-1 draw.  Barring injuries it’s hard for me to see how he’s not our #1 striker in 2022.

DeAndre Yedlin (29) – About the only bad thing I can say about him is that he’s a touch injury prone.  His quickness is unmatched anywhere else in the player pool and that makes a huge difference on the pitch.  When he’s fit he’s got the right back spot nailed down for the next five years. 

Graham Zusi (36) – He made the transition from right midfielder to right back pretty seamlessly but Qatar is not going to happen for him.