NBA Time Again!

It has been FAR too long since I’ve written about the NBA.  I missed the 20-game mark, mid-way point, post Super Bowl and All-Star break.  So as we approach one month to go (3/15) I might as well jump back in and break down what has happened and might happen down the stretch. 

EAST 

1. *Atlanta Hawks (49-12) – They are a ton of fun to watch play and feature a group of unselfish players that thrive on crisp ball movement and 3-point shooting.  Since they’ve already clinched a playoff spot and have a 12-game lead in the conference keeping guys healthy should be their priority over the next five weeks.  One concern I have about them is they aren’t the biggest team size wise and it shows in their rebound numbers.  They are tied for 26^th in rebound rate and tied for last in offensive rebound rate.  It’s something to keep your eye if they a play a team with size in the playoffs. 

2. *Chicago Bulls (39-24) – Injuries are the story with them as always this time of year.  Taj Gibson is out until mid-March, Jimmy Butler late March and Derrick Rose early April.  I wonder if Coach Tom Thibodeau will ever get the memo about not wearing guys down with too many minutes.  We’ll probably have to wait to see where he’s coaching next season to get an answer.  Anyway, I picked them to win it all and it’s hard to see that happening with Rose a shell of what he once was, both mentally and physically. 

3. *Toronto Raptors (38-24) – When the calendar flipped to 2015 it’s like these guys forgot how to play ball.  They were 24-8 in 2014 but only 14-16 since.  Sure they’ve had some injuries, most notably to DeMar DeRozan (missed 21 games), but it’s really their defense that has let them down.  They are giving up almost two more points per 100 possessions this season as opposed to last and Coach Dwane Casey has tried four different players as his starting SF.  They will be a tough out in the playoffs but a deep run is probably one or two seasons away still. 

4. *Cleveland Cavaliers (39-25) – They started slowly as most predicted they would, but it was more due to LeBron James not being himself than any chemistry or roster issues.  LeBron took eight games off around the new year (Cavs went 1-7) and since then they are a blistering 20-6.  Now Bron’s return just happened to coincide with GM David Griffin acquiring J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov in two separate trades.  Those three guys really balanced out their roster and seemingly rejuvenated James.  They can certainly win the East this season but I think the title is still a few years away. 

5. *Washington Wizards (35-27) – On January 27^th they were 31-15 and sitting pretty but since then they are an ugly 4-12.  Bradley Beal has missed 17 games but unfortunately that can’t be blamed for their slide since they survived the start of the season without him just fine.  Their defensive and rebounding numbers are pretty good but more and more I think Coach Randy Wittman is losing this group.  His offense is very unimaginative and he seems out of ideas for how to fix it.  They can still win a round, maybe two if they start clicking again, but they also could just as easily be bounced in round one and Wittman fired shortly thereafter. 

6. Milwaukee Bucks (32-29) – Easily the most surprising team in the Association this season.  They aren’t going to entertain you with a high powered free-flowing offense but they do stifle the opposition defensively on a nightly basis.  They are 2^nd in defensive efficiency (98.8 points per 100) and the sheer length they deploy is the reason why.  Giannis Antetokounmpo is fun to watch and I’m interested to see how Michal Carter-Williams plays with some talent around him, but they are one-and-done come the post season. 

7. *Charlotte Hornets (27-33) – They started the season very slowly mainly because Lance Stephenson (9.0 PER) just didn’t fit in chemistry wise.  Once Lance was moved to a bench role then injuries hit them.  Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Lance missed 9, 18, 16 and 14 games respectively.  Two things have helped them turn it around recently.  The first is GM Rich Cho trading for Mo Williams since Kemba is out until mid-March.  The second is their defense returning to form (7^th in defensive efficiency) after a slow start.  The “race” for the final two playoff spots in the East will be interesting but I like Charlotte’s chances to qualify and lose in round one. 

8. Indiana Pacers (27-34) – They have been on a 12-5 tear since George Hill returned from injury, and with talk that Paul George might not actually be out for the season, they are as dangerous as anyone in this “race.”  The difference is if the Pacers make the playoffs with PG-13 back (he changed his number) they could put a legitimate scare into one of the higher seeds. 

9. Miami Heat (27-34) – GM Pat Riley has done a very nice job rebuilding this team during the season.  Finding Hassan Whiteside and his 27.8 PER on the scrap heap was a stroke of genius.  Trading for Goran Dragic briefly made them contenders in the East until Chris Bosh was lost for the season with blood clots in his lungs.  Dwyane Wade has missed 18 games thus far and is still in and out of the lineup on a daily basis.  For them to make the playoffs Wade, Dragic, Luol Deng and Hassanity have to stay healthy.  Even then I’m not sold on them because they need everything Bosh brings on both ends to be truly dangerous. 

10. Boston Celtics (25-35) – They quietly have the best point differential (outside of Indiana) among teams in the “race” for the final two spots.  What I don’t get is how GM Danny Ainge escapes media bashing for his blatant tanking.  If they still had Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green they’d be #7 pretty easily right now.  Instead they have the possibility of FIVE first round picks this year and FOUR next year.  They also have three second’s this year and five next year.  I know a certain other club in the East that gets roasted almost daily for having the same plan, but somehow it’s OK for Boston and not Philly. 

11. *Brooklyn Nets (25-35) – Owner Mikhail Prokhorov is trying to sell the franchise after failing on his promise to deliver a championship within five years.  When he named Billy King GM everyone but him knew there was no way that was ever going to happen.  I often wonder why Prokhorov picked King, and something tells me it was on the advice of former Commissioner David Stern.  Just a theory I have and another black mark for Stern the GM.  It would be nice if they made the playoffs since I picked them but I’m not confident they can pull it off. 

12. *Detroit Pistons (23-38) – Stan Van Gundy the GM made a very questionable call straight up releasing Josh Smith with two years at $14 million per left on his contract.  Something funny happened after that though, they went on an 11-2 run that put them right back into the thick of the playoff race.  Then Brandon Jennings tore his Achilles and the wheels fell off again.  SVG the coach is definitely good at his job but SVG the GM I worry about.  I don’t think the acquisition of Reggie Jackson is quite enough for them to jump four other teams. 

13. Orlando Magic (20-43) – They fired Jacque Vaughn as their coach on 2/5 and interim Coach James Borrego has gone 5-6 since.  I think it’s time for GM Rob Hennigan to start taking some heat.  He won the Dwight Howard trade landing Nik Vucevic but I’ve been unimpressed with most of his other moves thus far.  He seems to favor athletic guys that don’t really know how to play and I’m not as sold on Victor Oladipo as most pundits are. 

14. Philadelphia 76ers (13-49) – Ah, the national media’s punching bag.  You’d think GM Sam Hinkie had single handedly ruined the integrity of the NBA with the way people lambaste him.  He’s taking a different approach to building a winner, so sue him.  I’m not saying his plan will or won’t work but at least give it a chance before killing him over it.  I didn’t love the Michael Carter-Williams trade and I thought Hinkie’s handling of the JaVale McGee situation was bazaar.  But geez, Brett Brown looks like he can really coach.  Nerlens Noel will never be an offensive force but he could be a Joakim Noah type of defensive anchor and offensive initiator from the high post.  Robert Covington is everything the departed K.J. McDaniels was touted to be and Jerami Grant is a very intriguing player that doesn’t really fit into a category.  I understand that Hinkie will live or die on Joel Embiid, Dario Saric and whoever he drafts this year, but I don’t think his tenure has really been as bad as most make it out to be. 

15. New York Knicks (12-48) – If you want to look at a bad tenure I present you Phil Jackson the GM.  He was under the mistaken impression that he had assembled a playoff-caliber roster in his first year on the job.  Um, no.  If you had predicted Langston Galloway, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early, Lou Amundson and Andrea Bargnani would be their starting five at any point in the season you’d be rich right now.  Giving Carmelo Anthony a 5-year $124 million contract extension might really come back to bite Phil too.  If Melo can’t make the triangle work the Knicks are in for a giant headache in the years to come. 

WEST 

1. *Golden State Warriors (48-12) – They have the best defense in the NBA (97.6 points per 100), shoot 3’s at the best clip (39.0%), have the best true shooting percentage (57.1%; includes FT’s & 3’s) and play at the fastest pace in the NBA.  In other words they are highly entertaining to watch, but you probably already knew that.  Steph Curry is an MVP candidate and deservedly so but Andrew Bogut will be their most important player in the playoffs.  Bogut leads the league in defensive plus-minus and anchors their defense.  If he gets hurt again, which is a distinct possibility, they really don’t have anyone else with size that can replace him.  His health could be the difference between a nice a run in the playoffs or a title. 

2. *Memphis Grizzlies (44-17) – I had them representing the West in the Finals and nothing has changed my mind since October.  GM Chris Wallace trading for Jeff Green might just be the move that gets them over the top.  The Griz playing slow and pounding the ball inside to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol runs counter to modern NBA logic but they make it work.  The bonus to playing that style is that when the game slows down in the post season they don’t have to change a thing, just play their normal game.  I can definitely see them winning it all with a few breaks when it comes to matchups. 

3. *Portland Trail Blazers (41-19) – Losing Wes Matthews to a torn Achilles is a big blow to the starting five with the best chemistry in the NBA.  Luckily GM Neil Olshey traded for Arron Afflalo at the deadline and AA should provide about 75-80% of what Wes did.  The problem for PDX is the next man up.  C.J. McCollum should be that guy but he’s never shown the consistency to do so.  If C.J. can’t get it done then they are looking at Dorell Wright, Alonzo Gee or Allen Crabbe to step up.  In other words, it’s not going to happen.  The Matthews injury takes the Blazers from dark horse contenders to maybe they can win a round. 

4. Houston Rockets (42-20) – Their season has gone pretty much how I expected, with one exception.  I didn’t see James Harden being the leading MVP candidate (on my ballot anyway) with around 20 games to play.  I thought The Beard or Dwight Howard would get injured and that would be that for them in a tough West.  Well Howard has missed 30 games thus far and Houston hasn’t missed him at all.  GM Daryl Morey deserves some credit too for beefing up their bench in-season with additions like Corey Brewer, Josh Smith and Pablo Prigioni.  When Howard comes back in mid-March it will be interesting to see if he helps or hurts their cause.  If he helps they are a legitimate title contender. 

5. *Los Angeles Clippers (40-22) – Doc Rivers the GM has really let Doc Rivers the coach down here.  Spencer Hawes, Jordan Farmar (released already) and his son Austin Rivers have done little to nothing to move the needle for them as bench players.  When Blake Griffin went down with a staph infection in his shooting elbow I thought they were dead.  But lo and behold Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan both really stepped up their games and they have gone 7-4 without Blake.  I could see them maybe winning a round with the right matchup but they have too many holes to be a true threat. 

6. *Dallas Mavericks (40-24) – GM Donnie Nelson is usually pretty good when it comes to personnel moves but trading Jameer Nelson, Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder for Rajon Rondo is not looking like his finest hour.  The thinking at the time was that Rondo would help their defense at the point of attack in PG-heavy West.  Well that hasn’t really happened but what has happened is his lack of a jumper has submarined their offensive efficiency.  In the grand scheme I don’t think they were winning anything with or without Rondo anyway, but giving up assets for a rental of a team cancer is never a good thing.

7. *San Antonio Spurs (38-23) – Their team numbers look pretty similar to last season but individually Tony Parker is ranked 78^th out of 79 qualified PG’s in WAR (ahead of only rookie Zach LaVine).  Needless to say that’s like really, really bad for a supposedly elite PG.  Beyond the numbers they aren’t passing the eye test either.  There is just something off with them and I think it’s the accumulation of playing so deep into the playoffs for three straight seasons.  I know it’s normally “write them off at your own risk,” but I just don’t see it for them this year. 

8. *Oklahoma City Thunder (34-28) – Kevin Durant has missed 35 games (and counting) and Russell Westbrook 15 yet here they sit as the most dangerous 8^th seed in history.  Westbrook has been a man on a mission lately averaging 31.2 points, 10.3 assists and 9.1 rebounds in the month of February.  GM Sam Presti also made some very shrewd moves at the deadline.  Exchanging Kendrick Perkins’ minutes for Enes Kanter is a massive upgrade (7.09 PER to 17.89).  D.J. Augustin is an upgrade in the chemistry department over the departed Reggie Jackson (better PER too 15.81 vs. 15.52) and once KD returns Kyle Singler gives them a real live backup SF.  Add it all up and if they can get into the post season healthy they can absolutely win it all.  Regardless of what round it is no team in the West will want to see them. 

9. *New Orleans Pelicans (33-29) – I have to admit I love watching Anthony Davis play.  He’s such a unique player it’s kind of scary that he still has a lot of upside to realize.  Consider that Wilt Chamberlain holds the single season record for PER at 31.82.  The Brow’s PER right now is 31.61 and he is 21 years old in his third season.  For the Pels though this season is more about what could have been.  Jrue Holiday has missed 25 games, Eric Gordon 21, Davis 12 and Ryan Anderson 10.  It’s a testament to The Brow’s greatness that they are still in the hunt but I’ll have to wait at least one more year to see Davis in the playoffs. 

10. Phoenix Suns (33-30) – You really have to question if GM Ryan McDonough knows what he’s doing.  He signs Isaiah Thomas in the summer only to trade him after 46 games.  And Ryan Mac only traded Isaiah after he annoyed their best player (Goran Dragic) into asking for a trade.  Then he gives away the Lakers top-5 protected pick for Brandon Knight?  Um, OK.  There is young talent here but it doesn’t necessarily fit well together.  I think the Suns are destined to be on the mediocrity treadmill for many years to come. 

11. Utah Jazz (25-36) – I’m a fan of Enes Kanter’s game but GM Kevin O’Connor made the right move getting rid of him for a future first round pick and spare parts.  Sure he could have got more in return but unleashing the Derrick Favors-Rudy Gobert frontcourt tandem has improved their defense astronomically.  They are 5-2 since the trade and along with Gordon Hayward Utah has their starting frontcourt set for the next decade.  Now if I saw the potential others do in starting PG Dante Exum or rookie Coach Quin Snyder they might really be on to something. 

12. Denver Nuggets (22-40) – They absolutely quit on since fired Coach Brian Shaw prompting David West to say “That’s bullshit.  No grownups on the roster.  You can’t win without grownups.”  Ever since Josh Kroenke took over for his Dad as President things have gone off the rails.  Firing George Karl as coach after a 57-win season and then letting former GM Masai Ujiri flee to Toronto the same summer (when he was still under contract) made no sense at the time and makes even less sense now.  So in many ways they are reaping what they sowed. 

13. Sacramento Kings (21-39) – Owner Vivek Ranadive is another guy reaping what he sowed.  The Kings got off to a 9-6 start and were the talk of the NBA then DeMarcus Cousins got viral meningitis and they promptly went 2-7.  This prompted Ranadive to fire Coach Mike Malone with a record of 11-13 citing the need for a “jazz director” as coach.  Apparently under Malone they were a “Sousa marching band.”  Um, OK.  Interim Coach Tyrone Corbin went 7-21 in charge prompting Vivek to bring George Karl in to direct his jazz band.  Kings gonna King I guess. 

14. Los Angeles Lakers (16-45) – My boys have been bad this season, really bad.  With no Kobe Bryant or Julius Randle there’s practically no reason to watch them play, yet I do day after day.  Coach Byron Scott is stuck in the 80’s when it comes to his coaching philosophy and I fear for who Jimmy Boy Buss will spend his oodles of salary cap space on this summer.  I don’t know what I’m most looking forward to, Kobe’s retirement or when Jeanie Buss fires her brother, but both can’t happen soon enough for me. 

15. Minnesota Timberwolves (13-47) – If they didn’t have so many injuries they would have been competing for the 8^th playoff spot right now.  Ricky Rubio missed 43 games, Kevin Martin 36, Nikola Pekovic 32 and Shabazz Muhammad 22.  All the injuries allowed Flip Saunders the GM to trade Corey Brewer, Mo Williams and Thaddeus Young but the problem is I don’t think he got enough for any of them.  The most egregious being trading Thad straight up for Kevin Garnett.  It’s a feel good homecoming story, I get it, but Young could have fetched much more than KG had Flip tried.  Bad trades aside if I were to pick a team that will greatly improve their win total next season this would be the one. 

* teams I had making the playoffs in October