Dwightmare Part Two

> On 2/21 at noon Pacific the Los Angeles Lakers franchise will reach a crossroads that will define them for years to come.  Much like when the Philadelphia 76ers decided to keep Allen Iverson after firing Coach Larry Brown or when the Portland Trail Blazers drafted Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.  These are the type of mistakes that take years to overcome and this is my plea to Executive VP “Little Jimmy” Buss (LJB) and GM Mitch Kupchak to trade Dwight Howard before it is too late.  I know Mitch has told the media that Howard will not be moved but what else is he going to say?  Hopefully he’s just covering his bases before trading him out of nowhere. 

Before I get to why Dwight should be traded I need to cover just how the Lakers ended up in this predicament in the first place.  It started when LJB went against Kupchak and hired Mike Brown over Mitch’s choice Rick Adelman prior to the lockout season.  As a Laker fan it’s depressing to think just how good this group would be with Adelman at the helm, not to mention last year’s squad as well.  Rick’s motion offense would have no problem integrating Howard, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant.  They would by no means be stellar defensively but Adelman would get them to play just enough D that it wouldn’t kill them every night.  Alas, LJB chose poorly and 71 games later Brown was out the door with a 42-29 record. 

The next LJB induced disaster was the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as coach over Phil Jackson.  Even though I preferred neither of those two gentlemen at the time as both are ill-suited to the Lakers current personnel, Jackson clearly could have managed all the aircraft carrier sized egos currently residing in LA.  D’Antoni is a “players coach” that rarely gets confrontational with anybody, as if you couldn’t tell by all the melodramas that play out in the media (instead of behind closed doors) with this bunch.  The problem with D’Antoni now is that he is still owed $4 million per season over the next two years.  Since the Lakers will still be paying Brown $4.5 million next year I find it highly unlikely that they’ll be paying a third coach for the ’13-14 season…no matter how little he may cost. 

With that being the case it seems like LA is stuck with the fundamentally flawed Mike D as coach so it behooves management to build a roster that fits his preferred style.  That means one of Gasol or Howard has to go, and despite Dwight being five years younger, a better rebounder and stronger defender, I’m choosing to keep Pau for several reasons. 

Let’s tackle the offensive end first.  Gasol has a plethora of low post moves with both hands, an effective jumper out to about 18 feet, can make free throws and is as good of a passing big man as you’ll ever see.  He also is a great roll man for Nash since Pau is able to pop or roll after setting a pick.  

Now compare that to Howard (19.20 PER, his lowest since his rookie year) who was the best roll man in the NBA last season (1.38 points per play as the roll man among the 75 players with at least 50 plays).  Somehow that skill has all but vanished in LA even though Nash led the league in pick-and-roll passes last season.  One would think pairing the best passer and finisher (statistically speaking) on the pick-and-roll would be a devastating combination.  That is certainly what LJB and Kupchak thought when hiring D’Antoni but it just hasn’t worked out that way, and it’s not because Jameer Nelson is better at running the pick-and-roll than Steve Nash is.  

Dwight has also complained about wanting more touches in the low post even though Mike D and Nash envision him as the vintage version of Amar’e Stoudemire rolling to the rim and exploding for dunk after dunk after dunk.  The problem with this is two-fold as I see it.  When Howard catches the ball on the block his go-to move is a hook shot off one dribble coming to the middle of lane.  Granted he can finish this move with either hand off either block, but his preferred is the left hand off the right block.  The problem is he has no counter-move to this and often has the ball stripped when deciding what to do next when the middle is taken away from him.  D’Antoni, Nash and Kobe have no patience with this and go away from it quickly leaving Dwight as a spectator more often than not.  

However the real reason the Nash-Howard pick-and-roll hasn’t worked is because Dwight does not set good picks anymore.  Gone are the bone crushers he used to lay on people regularly in Orlando.  If he just set good solid picks and sealed his man hard on his back before rolling he’d get so many more easy baskets a game.  So why doesn’t he?  Well I think it’s because physically his back can’t take it.  As someone with the same back issues as Howard I know jarring it suddenly does not feel good, and setting good solid screens would certainly do that.

Dwight also recently made a revelation to ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith that I think flew totally under the radar when it should have been big news.  He told Smith “For me, even sitting down in this chair right now is causing my legs to go numb and having this tingly sensation all the way down my legs.  That happens when I’m playing and that happens when I’m just sitting on the bench for a couple of minutes.  It’s not easy.  There are times when I can’t feel my legs when I’m out there playing.”  

Unfortunately I know all too well about leg numbness and the difficulty in getting rid of it, but then again, I’m not a professional athlete who’s about to sign a 5-year contract worth about $118 million (4-years/$88 million if he signs with anyone besides the Lakers).  I know Gasol is currently out for 6-8 weeks due to a tear in the plantar fascia of his right foot, and he also has tendinitis in both knees and bursitis in his left elbow, but none of those things are as crippling as a chronically bad back.  Not to mention that Howard also has a partially torn labrum in his right shoulder that will likely require offseason surgery to repair. 

The shoulder injury brings me to my last comparative point, which is that Dwight is not mentally tough.  By all accounts his shoulder really hurts but it’s also an injury that he can play with and not make worse.  Kobe has obviously done this with a myriad of injuries (currently tendinitis in his right elbow), Nash’s left leg still isn’t right and Pau was playing through foot, elbow and knee issues before he went down.  Yet Howard misses SIX games because his shoulder hurts and he doesn’t want to jeopardize his future?  He also thinks opponents are targeting his shoulder now...well duh, why wouldn’t they?

To the surprise of no one Kobe called him out on this very publically and the word on the street is that Nash did the same, albeit privately.  Gasol is used to dealing with Bryant’s demanding nature and has even thrived under it.  Where Dwight has bristled under Kobe’s intensity and complained numerous times about wanting more touches on offense.  Then there’s the free throw line, where apparently Howard shoots 80+% in practice but is unable to tune out mental distractions at the line when it counts during games.  I mean really, who admits that to the press? 

I agree with Rick Fox, who recently joined Magic Johnson, Shaquille O’Neal, Robert Horry and James Worthy as former Lakers who have questioned Dwight’s commitment to the team, when he says Howard really needs to “Look at the history of the organization and what it stands for and who has come before him and what this is about, then he would never look at it for a second at himself as bigger than this situation.” 

So what are LJB and Kupchak to do?  They should target a PF that can play with Gasol and fit into Mike D’s system.  When offering up Howard that should still, even at this point, bring in the best offers from around the league.  They could try to improve their defense with someone like Al Horford or Kevin Garnett.  Or they go for straight offensive fire power with someone like Kevin Love or Dirk Nowitzki.  Or they could maybe try for a package of players like the one Milwaukee or Denver could offer.  The possibilities are endless really. 

If Howard were to sign with another team this summer then the Lakers would still be over the salary cap and thus unable to add anyone significant to replace him.  So moving Dwight and sticking with Gasol gets LA more skills on offense, better health and someone that can mentally stand the rigors of playing for the NBA’s glamour franchise.  Sure the defense will suffer but under D’Antoni the Lakers defensive ceiling is only middle-of-the-road-not-too-terrible anyway. 

Now I could be wrong about all of this and Howard regains his health next year and dominates like he once did, but I just have one of those feelings.  And if I’m right my favorite club in all of sports is going to be mediocre for a loooong time.  So I’m begging Mitch and especially LJB to be proactive here and think outside of the box a little and understand sometimes addition by subtraction is the best way to go regardless of what the media hacks might say.  Fortune favors the bold my friends and the Lakers need to be just that here…bold. 

> With LeBron James recently stringing together six games in a row with 30+ points and 60+% shooting from the field the comparisons between him and Michael Jordan have begun.  MJ weighed in saying he’d pick Kobe over LeBron because “Five [rings] beats one every time I look at it.”  James responded to MJ by saying “At the end of the day, rings don't always define someone’s career.”  I’m just happy that this stale media debate has moved on from Kobe-MJ to LeBron-MJ.  Enjoy it Bron-Bron! 

> Keeping this post strictly Laker-centric I did some research this week on what many consider the biggest heist in NBA history.  Of course I’m talking about when LA acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis.  Back on 2/1/08 when the deal went down everyone was all over how the Lakers fleeced the Grizzlies.  Well I’m here to tell you that five years later the trade looks worlds more even.  LA received Pau and Devin Ebanks while Memphis got Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur, Quincy Pondexter and Jon Leuer.  Had the Griz kept Greivis Vasquez (Pondexter) and Marreese Speights (Leuer) and the Lakers not won two titles I’d call this one solidly in favor of Memphis.

Hex Game 1 Recap

In a sloppy effort all around the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) lost to Honduras 1-2 when Jerry Bengston tapped home a pass from Oscar Boniek Garcia in the 79th minute. The goal was a microcosm of the day for the USMNT as goalkeeper Tim Howard came well off his line to stop Garcia when it looked like defender Geoff Cameron was still in the play. Their miscommunication on the deciding sequence was nothing compared to Omar Gonzalez, who was in position to clear the ball had he been paying attention, fell asleep leaving Bengston wide open with nothing between him and the net except the ball.

The fact that Cameron and Gonzalez were involved in the mix-up that led to us losing the match and immediately falling to the bottom of the table was not lost on the media. Manager Jürgen Klinsmann made a controversial call by leaving long time captain and central defender Carlos Bocanegra on the bench in favor of the Geoff-Omar duo in the middle. While there’s no doubt that having Boca on the pitch would have made our back line more organized, and likely gained us at least one point, I don’t fault Jürgen for putting his talented youngsters out there. One can certainly question if a World Cup qualifier on the road is the best place to debut an entirely new back line but there’s also something to be said for the trial-by-fire approach.

Cameron is 27, Gonzalez is 24, left back Fabian Johnson is 25 and right back Timothy Chandler is 22. People can pine for Bocanegra and Steve Cherundolo all they want but the fact of the matter is that they will both be 35 by Brazil 2014. Fabian-Geoff-Omar-Timothy is the back line of the future and Klinsmann decided that the future is now and I have no problem with it. You can be sure former USMNT managers like Bob Bradley would have never taken such a risk but Jürgen being a forward thinker took a chance and got burned. I think the Fabian-Geoff-Omar-Timothy back line can work and gives us our best chance to win but it was glaringly obvious that they needed more time together to develop some chemistry.

(There’s also this little tidbit that both Gonzalez and Chandler no longer have the option of playing for Mexico and Germany respectively.)

On offense we could not maintain possession as Los Catrachos had the ball 57% of the time. I think defensive holding midfielder Danny Williams might have permanently lost his position to Maurice Edu (subbed in for Danny at the 58th minute) because Williams could not complete a pass to initiate the offense out of the back to save his life.

The other area where we were lacking was an oldie but a goodie, providing service from wide positions so forwards Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey could finish. Eddie Johnson started in the “Landon Donovan Spot” (side note: we NEED you Landon) and was replaced by the equally ineffective Sacha Kljestan in the 59th minute. Jermaine Jones had his moments on the other side, notably setting up Dempsey’s goal is the 36th minute, but they were too few and far between. Jones was replaced by Graham Zusi in the 67th minute and Zusi looked every bit of the MLSer he is.

Give Honduras credit, they scheduled the game in the heat of the day (high-80’s & VERY humid), grew the grass on the pitch out long (making it more difficult to run) and wore a white kit (forcing the USMNT into their dark blue). All of these tactics worked as the eleven European based players and three MLSer’s who played all looked tired at various points. In fact after Bengston’s go-ahead goal the USMNT was unable to mount any kind of possession, much less attack, in the final 11+3 minutes looking dead-legged across the board.

I’m trying not to get too down after the first match of ten but what I saw in Honduras is just an extension of the flat play I saw during the third round of qualifying. By my count the USMNT has had two good performances thus far in qualifying; the first and final matches of the third round. The four matches in between those, and the opener of the fourth round, have been a combination of too close for comfort wins and confounding defeats.

I fear that Herr Klinsmann’s days could be numbered if he doesn’t get a result against Costa Rica on 3/22 because the way we’ve looked throughout qualifying to this point does not inspire confidence heading to Azteca on 3/27. Luckily for us Costa Rica tied Panama 2-2 on a goal by Bryan Ruiz in the 84th minute and Jamaica managed a shocking 0-0 draw in Mexico. So while we are at the bottom of the table things aren’t that dire…yet anyway.

Team             W  D  L  GD Pts
Honduras         1   0   0  +1   3
Costa Rica       0   1   0    0   1
Panama           0   1   0    0   1
Jamaica           0   1   0    0   1
Mexico             0   1   0    0   1
United States    0   0   1  −1   0

Hexagonal Time

After an uninspiring 0-0 showing with our B (possibly C?) team against Canada on 1/29 in Houston, TX things are about to get very real for the United States Men’s National Team. The fourth and final round of World Cup qualifying in CONCACAF, otherwise referred to as the “Hexagonal,” begins in earnest on 2/6 across North America and the Caribbean.

Our boys have a very difficult draw playing three of their first four games on the road, including a trip to the dreaded Estadio Azteca on 3/26. The draw also wasn’t kind to us in two other ways. First our home game against Mexico falls in the summer rather than a colder month taking away an advantage that we normally put to good use. Second we finish on the road, and if we need three points to qualify that could be an extremely daunting task. The two keys for us looking ahead at the draw are 1) don’t get buried in the table early and 2) make hay in June.

Our first match will be played in the Estadio Olimpico at 3 PM local time in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. Give Los Catrachos credit for scheduling the game during the heat of the day in hopes that our players will tire from their bodies not being used to it. To add to the atmosphere the Honduran government has also declared the afternoon a national holiday ensuring the 40,000 in attendance will be tuned up and ready to go. I’d like to be greedy and say we can win this one but I will settle for one point on the road as always.

Since I don’t know what formation Manager Jürgen Klinsmann will deploy I’m going to assume he’ll use his preferred 4-3-3 with Tim Howard as goalkeeper. The back line will likely feature central defenders Geoff Cameron and captain Carlos Bocanegra. Since normal starting right back Steve Cherundolo has been left off the roster with knee pain look for Timothy Chandler to start in his place and permanently cap-tie himself (finally!) to the USA. Left back should be Fabian Johnson unless his knee injury acts up. In that case look for Cameron to move left and Omar Gonzalez to play with Boca in the middle.

The midfield will almost definitely be Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones and Danny Williams. Joining that trio up front will be Clint Dempsey, and if Jürgen and he can at long last bury the hatchet, Jozy Altidore (15 goals in the Eredivisie, 2nd overall). The other forward spot would be Landon Donovan, that is if he wasn’t sitting at home trying on skirts. I mean seriously Landon, you’re 30 years old, in your prime and yet you might retire from international fútbol? Get over yourself already man! In Donovan’s place I’m guessing will be Graham Zusi or another Klinsmann favorite Herculez Gomez.

Our next match is on 3/22 against Los Ticos, and in our own brand of gamesmanship we scheduled a night game at Dick’s Sporting Good Park in balmy Commerce City, CO. For the opening segment of qualifying to be considered a success three points are a must here. Then we head to Mexico City to be shredded by El Tri where hopefully we can keep the final score line from getting out of hand. Something like 0-2 or 1-3 would be considered a success in my eyes.

Four points in our first three matches would have us sitting pretty for the key June portion of qualifying. We owe the Reggae Boyz from our last trip to Kingston where we lost 1-2 in a lackluster performance during the third round of qualifying. Next up are very winnable home games against Los Canaleros and the return match versus Honduras (one of these two is rumored to be in Portland, OR…fingers crossed). Coming away from these three matches with the full nine points is not out of the question in my mind and it would set us up nicely for our very difficult closing stretch.

Going to Costa Rica will most likely be a loss and Mexico at home (expected to be in Columbus, OH) is no gimmie. The return match with Jamaica will probably need to produce three points and the hope is we’ll head to Panama already having clinched a spot in the top three. Even if the worst were to happen and we end up finishing fourth we’d still have a chance to qualify in the inter-confederation playoffs against the winner in OFC (New Zealand or New Caledonia). In this scenario we would play a two-legged home-and-away series on 11/15 and 11/19 with the winner advancing to the World Cup on aggregate score.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that but looking at the SPI rankings below you can see this won’t be an easy road for anyone (except Mexico) as the top six sides in CONCACAF managed to make it to the final round of qualifying. Expectations are high around the country and our home field advantages should be stout (for a change) but the keys as always will be picking up points on the road and taking care of business at home.

SPI Rank
7. Mexico
32. Costa Rica
38. United States
39. Honduras
44. Panama
61. Jamaica

Full Schedule
2/6 at Honduras
1 PM on beIN
3/22 Costa Rica
7 PM on ESPN
3/26 at Mexico
7:30 PM on ESPN
6/7 at Jamaica
6/11 Panama
6/18 Honduras
9/6 at Costa Rica
9/10 Mexico
10/11 Jamaica
10/15 at Panama
(all times Pacific)