First Round

EAST

Philadelphia at Chicago – The 76ers were so busy quitting on Coach Doug Collins that they almost missed the playoffs by going 6-8 in April.  Philly’s two biggest strengths all season have been defense and depth but unfortunately for them those also happen to be the calling cards of the Bulls.  I expect Chicago to use this series as a tune up to get Derrick Rose back into the flow with his teammates while also not having to work too hard.  Despite Evan Turner’s wishes this series is over quickly.  Bulls in 5.

New York at Miami – I’m sure Carmelo Anthony is looking forward to his match up with LeBron James but Tyson Chandler will be slowed by the flu to start the series and Amar’e Stoudemire hasn’t looked right in some time.  J.R. Smith and Steve Novak must exploit the Heat’s poor 3-point defense for the Knicks to have any chance.  But if Miami is able to “flip the switch” and play with the defensive intensity they are capable of and at the full court pace they prefer this should be a short series.  Heat in 5.

Orlando at Indiana – The Pacers went 12-3 in April and have looked great since making George Hill their starting PG.  Indy can defend, rebound and goes a legit two deep at every position which is why I’m not sure how they are flying under the radar.  The Magic will be without Dwight Howard (back) but Glen Davis (right ankle), Jameer Nelson (left calf), Hedo Turkoglu (face) and Quentin Richardson (right calf) are also banged up.  I just don’t see how Orlando has enough to contend without Howard.  Pacers in 5.

Boston at Atlanta – The big question here is will Ray Allen (right ankle) play and if he does will he have the mobility to be effective?  Rajon Rondo (back), Paul Pierce (left big toe) and Kevin Garnett (right hip) are also dealing with nagging injuries.  The Hawks will be without their two beefiest players as Al Horford (left pectoral) is out and Zaza Pachulia (left foot) is doubtful.  I see this as the most competitive series in the East but I give a slight edge to the Celtics because of their superior defense.  Boston in 6.

WEST

Dallas at Oklahoma City – This is a battle of two sides that aren’t exactly playing their best ball at the moment.  The Thunder went 8-7 in April and the Mavericks only 6-7.  The biggest problem for Dallas is they have no one besides Shawn Marion that can reasonably defend Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook.  On the other hand OKC can throw Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Durant at Dirk Nowitzki.  Many people think the Mavs give the Thunder trouble but Dallas isn’t snapping out of its season long malaise now.  OKC in 5.

Utah at San Antonio – According to the numbers based NBA community the Spurs are a prohibitive favorite to win it all.  I’m still a skeptic though because they play a “regular season” style of ball where they run a lot, use their depth and shoot threes.  Recently Jazz Coach Tyrone Corbin has started using a super-sized front line of Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Al Jefferson and I think that trio could give SA some trouble.  In the end Utah won’t have enough at the wing positions to hang though.  Spurs in 5.

Denver at Lakers – The loss of Metta World Peace for the first six games is a big blow to Los Angeles since as Danilo Gallinari goes this season so go the Nuggets.  Not to mention that backup SF Matt Barnes (right ankle) is also hurting which means seldom used Devin Ebanks will play a key role for the Lakers.  Denver possesses two types of players that always give LA trouble; an ultra-quick PG (Ty Lawson) and an undersized energy guy (Kenneth Faried).  The Nugs also have two decent Kobe Bryant defenders in Arron Afflalo and Corey Brewer.  For the Lakers to win it’s imperative that they keep the tempo slow and pound the ball inside to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol repeatedly.  Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee, Timofey Mozgov, Chris Andersen, Faried and Al Harrington (gimpy right knee) are no match for LA’s bigs.  This series will be far more competitive than people think and could really go either way.  In fact many of the stat geeks are picking Denver based on the numbers but I can’t do it.  Lakers in 7.

Clippers at Memphis – The NBA saved the best for last as this series is certain to be a war.  The Grizzlies are everyone’s dark horse choice to go all the way and I can’t say I disagree.  Their starting lineup, when healthy, is very well balanced.  They also have sneaky depth and an underrated coach in Lionel Hollins.  Los Angeles only goes as far as Chris Paul and Blake Griffin take them because the rest of the Clip roster is an underwhelming collection of spare parts.  Then you combine Vinny Del Negro’s limitations as a coach with CP3 straining his left groin in the second to last game of the season and I don’t see how they do it.  Memphis in 7.