Mid-Season Report

I’m not sure what’s hardest to believe; that we’re at the All-Star break already, that we’re at the half-way point of the season already or that both of these events are happening at the same time for once? With the exception of Golden State (30), Cleveland & the Clippers (31) and Boston, Charlotte & Utah (32) every team has played at least 33 games as we begin the ninth annual MSR. With apologies to the Jazz and Warriors I think we are down to ten squads in each conference vying for the eight playoff spots.

OPFG% = opponent field goal percentage
RBDF = rebound differential
3P% = 3-point field goal percentage
* = teams I had making the playoffs in late December

EAST

1. *Miami Heat (27-7) – They are first in 3P%, 4th in RBDF and tied for 5th in OPFG%. If that wasn’t enough they also boast the top two players in PER in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. They are first in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) and 7th in pace factor (95.3 possessions a game) so they are even playing an entertaining brand of ball. None of those numbers will matter though if they choke in the playoffs again. They have to be considered the odds on favorites to win it all barring injuries.

2. *Chicago Bulls (27-8) – They are first in RBDF, 5th in 3P% and 7th in OPFG%. It’s a testament to Coach Tom Thibodeau’s mentality that they have the record they do with all the injuries they’ve had. Richard Hamilton has missed 24 games, C.J. Watson 12, Derrick Rose 10 and Luol Deng 7. That’s three starters and a top reserve if you’re keeping track. If the Bulls are healthy for the Eastern Conference Finals the series against the Heat will be epic but I fear health will be the determining factor either way come June.

3. *Indiana Pacers (21-12) – They play defense (8th in OPFG%), rebound (8th in RBDF) and shoot threes (9th in 3P%). They are also well positioned to make a move at the trade deadline with the most salary cap space in the league and plenty of tradable assets. Making rash moves has never been the style of team President Larry Bird but if something presents itself I think he almost has to be opportunistic at this point. The Pacers are likely a few upgrades away but still should advance to the second round.

4. *Philadelphia 76ers (20-14) – The can defend (tied for 3rd in OPFG%), shoot threes (8th in 3P%) and lead the league in bench scoring. However they aren’t a great rebounding side (22nd in RBDF), have lost 7 of their last 9 and have only played 15 road games thus far. I expect them to “regress to the mean” over the second half of the season but they are certainly a lock to make the playoffs. I don’t see them making much noise once they get there unless President Rod Thorn decides to make a trade or two.

5. *Orlando Magic (22-13) – Dwight Howard’s numbers are down in scoring (20.1 from 22.9), blocks (2.2 from 2.4), shooting (55.4% from 59.3%), free throw shooting (49.2% from 59.6%) and PER (24.02 from 26.13). Yet despite Dwight’s obvious indifference the Magic are still 4th in 3P% and 9th in OPFG%. They can possibly win a round in the playoffs if they keep Howard but the big question is what will President Otis Smith do with his star? I don’t see Otis getting great offers for Dwight by 3/15 but you never know.

6. Atlanta Hawks (20-14) – They play decent defense (11th in OPFG%) and can shoot threes (7th in 3P%) but I have a bad feeling about this group. For starters they have lost 8 of their last 12 games and Joe Johnson (left knee) has joined Al Horford (left pectoral) on their injury report. It doesn’t stop there as Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady have joined Josh Smith in complaining to the media about their roles. I’ve written them off before but I don’t see them winning a round if they make the playoffs.

7. *New York Knicks (17-18) – They don’t defend (16th in OPFG%), rebound (19th in RBDF) or surprisingly shoot threes (27th in 3P%) but those numbers don’t reflect their current rotation at all. Iman Shumpet and Toney Douglas have been replaced by Jeremy Lin and Baron Davis at the point. J.R. Smith and Steve Novak replacing Shumpert and Bill Walker as wing reserves should really improve their 3-point shooting. This is a dangerous squad that if on the same page can challenge anyone in the East.

8. *Boston Celtics (15-17) – They have really picked up their defense (2nd in OPFG%) and shoot it well from deep (6th in 3P%) but they don’t rebound at all (26th in RBDF). I worry about their lack of depth at literally every position if they have injuries. Then GM Danny Ainge could blow up the roster by trading one of his “Big Four” at any minute. They’ve only played 15 road games so the second half figures to not be very kind to them. It wouldn’t shock me if they missed the playoffs or got swept in the first round.

Cleveland Cavaliers (13-18) – Kyrie Irving leads all rookies in estimated wins added by a whopping 1.4 wins a season. It’s an obscure stat but it’s the best way I can sum up what he means to the Cavs. Their defense was suspect to begin with (19th in OPFG%) and without Anderson Varejao (right wrist) manning the middle I expect it to get worse along with their rebounding (7th in RBDF). These guys play hard every night for Coach Byron Scott and had a legitimate shot at the playoffs had Varejao not broken his wrist.

*Milwaukee Bucks (13-20) – Time has to be running out on both Coach Scott Skiles and GM John Hammond. In fact, if I were Hammond I’d have fired Skiles roughly a month ago. This team has more than enough talent to make the playoffs in the East but Skiles hasn’t decided on a playing rotation for going on two years now. Losing Andrew Bogut (left ankle) hurt and the Stephen Jackson experiment hasn’t worked out but I think another voice in the huddle is what this bunch needs to make a run.

Detroit Pistons (11-24) – Granted they don’t have many defensive minded players or rebounders but I’m still shocked that a Lawrence Frank coached team is 29th in OPFG% and 24th in RBDF. Outside of Greg Monroe and Jonas Jerebko I can’t come up with a compelling reason to watch these guys. They are still a mismatched bunch of shoot-first PGs and tweener forwards. I think new Owner Tom Gores needs to can President Joe Dumars sooner rather than later. In fact, tomorrow would be good.

Toronto Raptors (10-23) – New Coach Dwane Casey has them playing defense (10th in OPFG%) and rebounding (15th in RBDF) for the first time in years. The real story to the Raps season is Andrea Bargnani who was sporting career highs in points (23.5), rebounds (6.3), assists (2.1) and PER (22.13) before he strained his left calf. They are a respectable 6-7 when Il Mago plays and an ugly 4-16 when he doesn’t. If Jonas Valanciunas arrives next season things could be looking up in T-Dot.

New Jersey Nets (10-25) – They are dead last in OPFG%, 24th in RBDF and have been hit hard by the injury bug. The good news is with Brook Lopez coming back they now can trot out 4/5 of a reasonable NBA starting lineup with Deron Williams, Kris Humphries and rookie MarShon Brooks joining Lopez. The elephant in the room is what will President Billy King do with D-Will if he can’t acquire Dwight Howard by 3/15? My gut feeling is King will panic and take back Pau Gasol so he’s not left empty handed.

Washington Wizards (7-26) – They were 2-15 when they fired Flip Saunders as coach and have gone 5-11 since Randy Wittman took over. They are 25th in OPFG%, 28th in RBDF, 29th in 3P% and possess one of the most dysfunctional rosters in the entire Association. I’d say President Ernie Grunfeld has to be on borrowed time by now as is everyone else on the team not named John Wall, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton or Trevor Booker.

Charlotte Bobcats (4-28) – This is by far the most painful side to watch in the NBA. They are last in RBDF, 27th in OPFG% and 26th in 3P%. I really couldn’t say with any assurance who I think their best player is as they are one step above a D-League team in my opinion. Things can only get better since they figure to have a high draft pick this summer and tons of salary cap space after next season.

WEST

1. *Oklahoma City Thunder (27-7) – They’ve been the cream of the crop out West all season and are 2nd in offensive efficiency, 6th in RBDF and tied for 5th in OPFG% & pace factor. In other words they have almost the exact same statistical profile as Miami outside of 3P% (14th). I can’t tell you which club will do it yet but I think the Thunder can lose in a 7-game series to a Western foe because their late game offense is still too stagnant and reliant on the greatness of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

2. *San Antonio Spurs (24-10) – Manu Ginobili has played in only 9 games so far with a variety of injuries, Tim Duncan has his lowest PER ever and they don’t defend (26th in OPFG%) or rebound (20th in RBDF). So how in the heck are they 2nd in the West? Tony Parker has the second highest PER of his career (’08-09), they are 3rd in 3P% and Gregg Popovich is one hell of a coach. These guys could win the West with a few breaks or be out in round one with a bad matchup. The West is that wide open.

3. *Los Angeles Clippers (20-11) – They are a middle of the pack defensive (14th in OPFG%) and 3-point shooting (13th in 3P%) side. However like all Chris Paul led squads they don’t waste possessions (tied for 4th in offensive efficiency) and they can also rebound (3rd in RBDF) with the best of them. I fear they are too reliant on CP3 creating offense though and losing Chauncey Billups (left Achilles) didn’t help that any. I think GM Neil Olshey needs to make a trade or the second round is probably their ceiling.

4. *Dallas Mavericks (21-13) – Nobody predicted they’d be first in OPFG% after losing Tyson Chandler to free agency, but they are. That said they don’t rebound (18th in RBDF) or shoot threes (21st in 3P%) all that well and are getting lackluster production from more than a few players. President Donnie Nelson isn’t going to make any moves that take on salary and may even dump Shawn Marion for cap space by 3/15. The Mavs are still as dangerous as anybody in the West and fall in the same class as SA above.

5. *Los Angeles Lakers (20-14) – They are 2nd in RBDF and tied for 3rd in OPFG% but only 28th in 3P% and last in bench scoring. The Lakers have three of the best players at their positions in Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol but the roster falls of a cliff after that, and no, Rasheed Wallace isn’t the answer to their problems. They likely aren’t going to be contenders this season unless GM Mitch Kupchak manages to find an upgrade at PG but they are a playoff team barring injuries.

6. Houston Rockets (20-14) – They are below average defensively (21st in OPFG%), ok shooting the three (12th in 3P%) and decent rebounding (9th in RBDF). They get by on their superior depth with kudos going to Coach Kevin McHale for making some tough choices early on when settling on a rotation. Goran Dragic, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Patrick Patterson and Jordan Hill form a tough and versatile second unit. They could certainly make the playoffs but are likely one and done if they get there.

7. *Memphis Grizzlies (19-15) – They are tied for 10th in RBDF, 12th in OPFG% and 20th in 3P% but beyond the numbers it’s amazing that they are still in the playoffs hunt with Zach Randolph (right knee) appearing in only 4 games thus far. When he returns to the lineup shortly they should be in good shape going forward but I’m not so sure. This group of players has never been healthy at the same time and I still wonder how their chemistry will be. That said the Griz are perfectly suited to upset OKC early.

8. *Portland Trail Blazers (18-16) – The stat geeks all think Portland is really better than their record due to their 5th best point differential. Well I’m here to tell you that this is a very average bunch that can’t win on the road. They are 15th in OPFG%, 17th in RBDF and tied for 16th in 3P%. Since they still have no GM and an unpredictable owner it’s hard to say what’s coming next for them. To comfortably make the playoffs Ray Felton is going to have improve on his career low PER or it’ll be back to the lottery for PDX.

*Denver Nuggets (18-17) – Their depth was supposed to be their calling card until everyone got hurt. Al Harrington and Andre Miller are the only Nugs to appear in every game with starters Nene Hilario (12 games), Danilo Gallinari (10), Timofey Mozgov (9), Ty Lawson (5) and Arron Afflalo (3) all missing time. They aren’t a great defensive (tied for 23rd in OPFG%), rebounding (12th in RBDF) or shooting (22nd in 3P%) team either. They can still make the playoffs and possibly win a round if they get healthy though.

Minnesota Timberwolves (17-17) – They are without a doubt my favorite club to watch play this season. Ricky Rubio’s passing and enthusiasm is infectious and Kevin Love is a flat out superstar. New Coach Rick Adelman is not known for his defense but the Wolves are tied for 12th in OPFG% and are 5th in RBDF. They don’t shoot it well from deep (23rd in 3P%) and are probably a year away from being in the mix but if injuries hit a few of the teams above them I could see them sneaking into the playoffs.

Utah Jazz (15-17) – They benefited from a home heavy early part of their schedule but have come crashing back to earth recently losing 13 of 19 games with most of them coming away from EnergySolutions Arena. The bad news is they’ve only played 14 road games so far and are tied for 23rd in OPFG% while being dead last in 3P%. The good news is they have a nice young core and ZERO dollars committed to the salary cap after next season. The future is bright for the Jazz.

Golden State Warriors (13-17) – I have to give rookie Coach Mark Jackson credit, he’s much better at his job than I thought he’d be. They still don’t defend (22nd in OPFG%) or rebound (29th in RBDF) but they still can shoot it (2nd in 3P%). The main thing that’s changed for the Warriors under Jackson is they compete every single night now. That’s said they’ve also played the fewest total games (30) and road games (12) league wide, so the schedule figures to eat them up over the second half of the season.

Phoenix Suns (14-20) – The “brain trust” of Owner Robert Sarver, President (and former agent) Lon Babby and GM Lance Blanks waited far too long to trade Steve Nash. Nash won’t request a trade but would be open to it if the organization came to him. The problem there is at this point they won’t get anything close to equal value for him. Steve has also said that the Suns won’t be able to keep him at a below market value price next season. This franchise is going nowhere fast as Nash waves goodbye.

Sacramento Kings (11-22) – They were 2-5 when they replaced Paul Westphal with Keith Smart as coach and have gone 9-17 since. Not surprisingly the Kings play no defense (28th in OPFG%), don’t rebound (23rd in RBDF) nor can they shoot it from deep (25th in 3P%). The one saving grace for them going forward is Smart seemingly ending the Tyreke Evans at PG era and replacing him with rookie Isaiah Thomas. Unfortunately Keith moved Tyreke to SF rather than his natural SG position. Oh well.

New Orleans Hornets (8-25) – Eric Gordon came out this week and admitted that he didn’t have a bone bruise on his right knee but rather cartilage damage. Gee, ya don’t say? Gordon didn’t stop there saying that he first experienced pain in the knee prior to the blockbuster Chris Paul trade. D’oh, that would be a double bad for you Commissioner Stern. The Hornets do play hard every night for Coach Monty Williams but they lack the talent to compete unless the opposition is sleepwalking.

Mid-Season Awards

Defensive Player – Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia)

Sixth Man – James Harden (Oklahoma City)

Coach – Gregg Popovich (San Antonio)

Rookie – Kyrie Irving (Cleveland)

MVP – LeBron James (Miami)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (Clippers)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – LeBron James (Miami)
PF – Kevin Love (Minnesota)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

My blog is going dark for the next three weekends (if not four) as I prepare for, travel to and recover from my third trip to Europe. During my time away trading season will open (3/1) and close (3/15) so depending on the activity at the deadline my first post back may or may not be the “Trade Spectacular.”

Around the League 2/19

> People like ESPN’s Henry Abbott love to rip on the Lakers and especially Kobe Bryant for their exploits in crunch time. Abbott is probably most famous for the plethora of statistically based articles he’s written that in his mind prove that Kobe is guilty of playing “hero-ball” when Los Angeles needs a bucket with the game on the line.

I’m not denying that Bryant can force bad shots in these situations but when you look at who he’s on the court with you really can’t blame him. Laker Coach Mike Brown likes to use Derek Fisher, Kobe, Metta World Peace, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum as his closing five. Let’s put aside that Brown’s offensive sets are a tad on the unimaginative side for now and focus on the people on the floor.

Fisher ranks 57th out of the 62 qualified PGs in PER ahead of only Keyon Dooling, Sebastian Telfair, Toney Douglas, Mike Bibby and Jeremy Pargo. If you prefer traditional numbers Derek is shooting 36.5% from the field and 26.7% from three. Likewise Metta is tied for 54th out of the 62 qualified SFs ahead of such fabled luminaries as Sasha Pavlovic, Damien Wilkins, teammate Jason Kapono, Travis Outlaw, Shawne Williams Ryan Gomes and Rasual Butler. World Peace also can’t hit a cow’s ass with banjo shooting 33.5% from the field and 20.6% from three.

My point being that when the game is on the line LA trots out two of the worst guys league wide at their respective positions. With Gasol and Bynum being low post players that gives the Lakers exactly one guy who can create his own shot off the dribble. So LA is basically playing 3 on 5 in crunch time and two of the three need someone else to get them the rock.

Since Fisher and MWP can’t hit open shots anymore this allows defenses to pack the paint and deny Pau and Drew the ball in the places they like to get it. This in turn then allows the defense to focus solely on Bryant whether it be by double teaming him or taking away his driving lanes. Everyone knows the Mamba’s will to win is practically unmatched so rather than force a pass to the post or create an open look for a non-shooter he does what he thinks is best which is getting himself a shot. Even if said shot is not great, which a lot of times it isn’t, it’s still better than the alternative when the bottom line is winning.

To further illustrate my point John Hollinger wrote an article this week (insider) where he explains a new rating system he created called BAD (Below Average Dependency). It’s a little on the stats-y side but in it he unveils that the Lakers have the highest BAD score as a team with 12,499 BAD points. Check it out if you can.

> I haven’t written about the 76ers yet this season because as Dennis Green would say “They are what I thought they were.” I had Philadelphia winning the Atlantic and finishing third in the East but lacking the star power to advance out of the first round of the playoffs. With the Knicks adding Jeremy Lin, J.R. Smith and Baron Davis to Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler I’m not sure that Sixer President Rod Thorn can afford to sit still anymore.

I have to give credit to my former editor at the Monday Morning Mehta for this idea but it is time for Philly to sell high on a few players and get a go-to scorer and another big man in return. The combination of Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams could fetch an awful lot right now or at the 3/15 trade deadline.

Iggy was just named to his first All-Star team, is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, is shooting a career high 37.6% from three and has his highest PER since the ’08-09 season. Williams is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate and is averaging career highs in points, 3-point shooting and PER (20th in the NBA overall at 22.51).

I think those two could easily return this or this or any number of other combinations that I don’t have the time or patience to concoct. Of course there are risks involved in breaking up a squad that is playing so well but I believe this Sixer group is just about at their ceiling right now and I fear it starts leveling off or going downhill come next year.

Sometimes as a GM you have to be ahead of the curve and I believe this is one of those times. I compare it to when Philly fired Larry Brown as coach but then didn’t finish the purge by unloading Allen Iverson while he still had value around the Association. Just like how the Lakers should have traded Pau Gasol the summer after they won back-to-back titles. Being a GM isn’t a popularity contest and besides getting rid of AI2 and Lou Dub opens up more space for Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday to spread their wings and develop at a faster rate.

> Anther topic I’ve been remiss in writing about is the play of Cleveland’s rookie PG Kyrie Irving. He leads all rookies in PER at 21.82 which puts him 24th overall. He’s shooting 49.1% from the field, 41.4% from three and 83.8% from the line while scoring 18.2 points, handing out 5 assists and grabbing 3.5 rebounds. He is very fundamentally sound, knows how to run a team, has a cat-quick first step and is an outstanding finisher in traffic at the rim.

The Cavaliers recently lost two of the three games Irving missed with a concussion and he’s the main reason, along with a career year from Anderson Varejao (19.23 PER), that Cleveland is on the fringes of the Eastern playoff race. Now I doubt the Cavs can stay there without Varejao (out 4-6 weeks, right wrist) but Kyrie has a Chris Paul-like ability to keep his team in every game and steal them in the end.

> On 2/13 New Orleans announced that Eric Gordon had arthroscopic surgery to correct the “bruise” on his right knee and will miss at least six more weeks. Ummm…since when do people need surgery to fix bruises? Yet again the NBA has shown us all why they shouldn’t own a team. I think there are two plausible reasons why the league would hide the severity of Gordon’s injury. 1) They are trying to preserve the franchise’s value for perspective buyers. 2) They are trying to hide the fact that Eric was already injured when they traded for him. Either way the media blackout on the topic reeks like a bad cheese, but why should Stu Jackson and his boys stop shooting themselves in the foot now?

Trade #1 (PER)
Kevin Martin – 18.13
Goran Dragic – 14.48
Luis Scola – 13.46
Lamar Odom – 10.22
New York’s record – 16-16

Trade #2
Eric Gordon – 17.65 (played in only 2 games thus far)
Chris Kaman – 14.49
Al-Farouq Aminu – 8.58
Minnesota’s record – 16-16

> Speaking of the Timberwolves I wanted to mention that they start FOUR white guys and are actually a pretty decent side. Kevin Love (26.05 PER, 4th overall) is arguably the best PF in the game and Montenegrin big man Nikola Pekovic (22.54, 19th) has been going gangbusters since permanently taking over the starting center job from Darko Milicic. Then you’ve got Spanish rookie sensation Ricky Rubio (16.13, 2nd in steals & 5th in assists league wide) and wily veteran Luke Ridnour (12.54) manning the back court. The weak link in the starting unit is by far SF Wes Johnson (6.12). Who says the white NBA player is a dying breed?

> If you haven’t already heard it I highly recommend checking out Bill Simmons’ podcast with Larry Bird. There are so many interesting tidbits I can’t even mention them all.

Around the League 2/12

> I’ve already given Los Angeles Coach Mike Brown credit for his defensive (tied for 2nd in opponent shooting at 41.7%) and rebounding (2nd in rebound differential at +3.70) numbers while ripping his offensive system. (Assistant Coach John Kuester has been diagramming crunch time plays lately.) After 27 games it’s now time to focus on his playing rotation, or lack thereof.

Brown makes some puzzling decisions when it comes to doling out minutes and still hasn’t settled on a consistent rotation as we approach the half way point of the season. Now I know the Laker roster isn’t exactly chock full of talent but there is enough there to form a coherent rotation.

I’m fine with starting Derek Fisher and his 8.54 PER at the point as long as Steve Blake plays more total minutes and closes out each half. LA really needs Blake’s 3-point shooting and defense regardless of Fisher’s status in the locker for past services rendered. Something along the lines of a 28 to 20 split of the minutes in Blake’s favor seems about right to me.

Shooting guard is obviously a no-brainer when Kobe Bryant is on the team but Kobe is playing far too many minutes at 38.6 per night (2nd in the league). This is where rookie Andrew Goudelock should be given more of an opportunity. Goudelock is really a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, and while he brings almost nothing else to the table, the guy can really shoot the ball and is the Lakers best 3-point shooter at 40.6%. I think lowering Bryant’s minutes to the 33-34 range and upping Andrew’s to 14-15 would serve the team and Kobe best over the long haul.

Small Forward is where Brown has been the most baffling starting Devin Ebanks for the first four games, then moving to Matt Barnes for the next 16 and finally Metta World Peace for the last seven. MWP has been arguably the worst Laker since the lockout was lifted sporting a 5.43 PER. I know that benching him probably means he permanently checks out mentally but he’s earned his spot at the end of the pine thus far. While still a little raw I think Ebanks should start and Barnes finish each half with a minute split the lines of Fisher and Blake. In fact Matt and Steve should check in around the 7-minute mark of each quarter as Devin and Derek check out.

The big man rotation shouldn’t have any controversy but alas it does too. Pau Gasol averages 37.1 minutes and Andrew Bynum 34.8 and while I think those figures should be reversed I’m not going to complain about them too much. It’s off the bench where I have an issue. Brown currently uses Troy Murphy (8.03 PER) over Josh McRoberts (10.45 PER) exclusively when one of Pau or Drew sits. I understand that LA is dead last in 3-point shooting (28.4%) and that is Murphy’s (40% from three) only redeeming quality but McRoberts just brings so much more to the table. Josh is WAY more athletic, a better rebounder, better defender, better passer, better finisher and his hustle and tenaciousness are something the Lakers need every night.

So in closing the second unit should be Blake, Goudelock, Barnes, McRoberts and Bynum. It’s very important that Bynum checks out before Gasol so Drew can come back in and be the focal point of the second unit. When dumping the ball into Bynum he would be surrounded by two shooters in Blake and Goudelock and two hustlers/slashers in Barnes and McRoberts. So when Drew gets double teamed he should have the option of an open perimeter shot or someone slicing to the basket for a layup. It seems so simple to me that I wonder what Coach Brown is waiting for.

> “Linsanity” is sweeping the NBA as New York Knicks PG Jeremy Lin sports the fourth highest overall PER (25.91) in the league. Who is Jeremy Lin you ask? Well he went to Harvard after receiving no athletic scholarship offers out of high school and then went undrafted in the 2010 draft. He played on Dallas’ summer league team in 2010 and obtained his first buzz when he more than held his own against number one pick John Wall. From there he signed with his home town Golden State Warriors eschewing offers from the Mavericks and Lakers. Lin played 29 games his rookie year and posted a PER of 14.79.

The Warriors released Lin as training camp opened this year so they could free up the salary cap space to make an offer to restricted free agent DeAndre Jordan (which the Clippers matched). From there Lin was claimed off waivers by Houston and spent the preseason there before being released the day before the season started so the Rockets could sign Samuel Dalembert.

Lin was then claimed off waivers by New York but didn’t play much and was sent to the D-League where he had a triple-double (28 points, 12 assists & 11 rebounds) in his only game with the Erie BayHawks. With the Knicks PG situation a complete mess and the deadline to fully guarantee contracts (2/10) rapidly approaching Jeremy was finally given a chance on 2/4 to show what he could do or likely be released once again. Lin responded with 25 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steals off the bench as the Knicks rallied to beat the Nets.

He started the next game when NY was without stars Carmelo Anthony (right groin) and Amar’e Stoudemire (death of brother) and put up 28 points and 8 assists and the rest is history. The Knicks are 5-0 since Lin was given the nod and he has single handedly saved Coach Mike D’Antoni’s job while vaulting NY back into the playoff picture. Jeremy’s averages over that stretch are 26.8 points, 8 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2 steals while shooting 51.5% from the field.

Everyone wants to know if he can keep it up and I’m here to tell you he can, albeit not at this exalted level. D’Antoni’s system is tailor made for PGs that are adept at running the pick and roll which Lin most certainly is. Jeremy’s game is a little herky-jerky and he’s got sneaky athleticism and good length for his size (6’3). He generally makes good decisions with the ball but he does take unnecessary risks as evidenced by his 4.6 turnovers a game since “Linsanity” began. He also doesn’t go left that well and he’s going to have to prove he can make long outside shots consistently.

Other than D’Antoni Lin’s arrival should benefit Amar’e the most (assuming his knees hold up) by having a pick and roll partner once again. The question I have is how will Jeremy and Carmelo co-exist? Lin needs the ball in his hands a lot to be effective and Anthony is one of the premier ball-stoppers in the NBA. For the Knicks to really be at their best I think Melo is going to have to alter his game and try to fit in more than he is used to. Anthony’s willingness to adjust will not only determine D’Antoni’s fate but also how far the Knicks go in the playoffs.

> On 2/6 Chauncey Billups tore his left Achilles tendon and will miss the remainder of the season. With the return of Eric Bledsoe I think the Clippers will be fine going forward in the regular season. They can start Randy Foye next to Chris Paul and spell them with Mo Williams and Bledsoe respectively. However that makes them extremely small in the backcourt with Foye as their tallest player at 6’4. When the post season rolls around though I think LA will be in trouble dealing with people like Kobe, Manu Ginobili and James Harden. GM Neil Olshey probably has to make a move for a defensive minded SG with size prior to the trade deadline if the Clips are really going to be contenders.

> The following is a plea to every GM in the Association: Please do not do business with Donnie Nelson in Dallas if he calls trying to give you Shawn Marion for free. Why would the Mavs want to dump their starting SF for nothing in return? To get rid of his $8.6 million contract for next season of course. Owner Mark Cuban has his sights set on enough salary cap space to sign two maximum contracts (or damn close to it) this summer. To get there Cubes and Nellie Jr. will need to amnesty Brendan Haywood and not pick up team options on Lamar Odom and Brandan Wright. Even by doing all that Dallas would still have $33 million in committed salary so dumping the Matrix gets them to $24.4 million or enough to reasonably tempt both Dwight Howard and Deron Williams to come to the Metroplex. So I’m hoping the rest of the GMs in the league hear my plea and are as sickened as I am at the thought of how smug Cuban will be if he manages to pull this off.

> Picking All-Stars after 25 games or so feels very rushed to me but I guess it is par for the course in this suicide season. I don’t have many problems with the West outside of Dirk Nowitzki’s inclusion by the coaches. Dirk has a PER below 20 (19.74) and even said himself he shouldn’t make it. I’d replace Dirk with Paul Millsap (23.61). The other mistake the coaches made is picking the wrong Gasol for the squad. Marc’s PER is also below 20 (19.71) and Pau’s 21.16 PER would be the lowest on my Western roster.

In the East I’d fix three errors for the coaches; first I’m switching out Roy Hibbert (18.59) for Tyson Chandler (20.20). Next I’m removing Luol Deng (16.37) in favor of Josh Smith (19.72). Lastly Joe Johnson (17.90) would be replaced by rookie sensation Kyrie Irving (21.63). Just to compare the quality of the two conferences on my All-Star teams the Eastern side would have seven players with a PER below 21 low-lighted by Andre Iguodala’s 18.76 mark.

Around the League 2/5

> On Friday the Los Angeles Clippers signed Kenyon Martin to one-year $2.5 million contract out-recruiting the likes of the Lakers, Heat, Spurs, Hawks and Knicks in the process. At 34 K-Mart doesn’t have much gas left in his tank but I couldn’t imagine a better situation for him. As I’ve written before the Clips big man depth behind starters Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan ranges from awful to pathetic, so what Martin is currently capable of is actually just what LA needs him for. Blake averages 36.5 minutes a game so Kenyon can slide right into those 11.5 minutes and maybe masquerade as a center for another 4-8 more. K-Mart’s athleticism is pretty much gone but he can still rebound, defend and provide toughness in limited minutes. His playoff and big game experience will also be valuable for Griffin and Jordan. I suppose there’s a chance Martin could go off the reservation but with former teammate Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul around I don’t see Kenyon rocking the chemistry boat much if at all.

> Also on Friday it was announced that New Orleans is taking Chris Kaman off the trade market. That was sure quick wasn’t it? Just as I said would happen last week the Hornets got nothing but low ball offers for the productive center that also happens to be in the last year of his $14 million contract. The league obviously overplayed their hand once again causing NBA spokesman Tim Frank to issue this statement:

"Dell Demps is the general manager of the Hornets (and) neither Stu Jackson nor Joel Litvin has had any conversations with any teams about a trade for Chris Kaman. Further, neither Stu nor Joel has set any asking price. Any information you are receiving to the contrary is simply not true."

Umm, ok buddy, if you say so. I also still have that unbelievable beach front property in Nebraska I’m looking to sell. Apparently Jackson and Litvin are asking for draft picks or other young assets in return for Kaman but also don’t want to add any long term salary in the process. So to put it plainly they want another team to give them something of value for a half season rental and that’s obviously not going to happen. I also read this week that Chris might be bought out of his NOLA contract all together so some clubs are willing to just wait it out and call the league’s bluff. I guess nothing should surprise me in terms of poor management decisions when Stu Jackson is involved but buying Kaman out would be unfathomably stupid.

> Through the first 325 games of the season average attendance around the league is 17,094, or 89% of capacity, which is up slightly from last season’s number (17,057) through the first 325 games. While that is one way of showing the lockout didn’t affect the NBA’s popularity TV ratings have been astoundingly good across the board. ABC’s ratings are up 5%, regional cable 12%, ESPN 23%, local over-the-airwaves 36%, TNT 50% and finally NBATV a whopping 66%. There are other indicators as well like the approximately 180 million people that follow the NBA, its teams and its players (more than any other sport) on social media. The popularity doesn’t stop there either as TV ratings are also up 39% in China. As I’ve been saying for a few years now it’s well past time that people start admitting that basketball has passed baseball as second behind football in America’s sports conscious.

> Through game action on Thursday 2/2 the East was only 41-59 against West. This is where the unbalanced schedule that has teams playing only 18 inter-conference games apiece makes a huge difference. Borrowing some numbers from ESPN’s John Hollinger the unbalanced schedule adds 1.8 wins to every team in the East while subtracting 1.8 from every Western squad. What this means is that while the West beats the stuffing out of each other on a nightly basis the East will be sending at least one sub-.500 side to the playoffs and maybe two. As opposed to out West where there could be as many as three .500 or better units that don’t qualify for the post season. This explains why I almost exclusively watch West-on-West matchups these days when the Lakers, Sixers or Blazers aren’t playing.

> I recently had an opportunity to pick some games against the spread for a friend that was flush after a great football season versus the boys in Vegas. I didn’t do very well at all but what I figured out is that to be a really competent gambler you have to do hours of research a day…something I just didn’t have the time for. More than anything though this season is all about travel. You’ve got to compare where each team has been recently and go from there…almost nothing else matters outside of injuries.

That said following the lines for a few weeks made watching the games less enjoyable for me almost the same way being involved in fantasy hoops did. It’s like I was suddenly watching the games for the wrong reasons and paying attention to stuff that really doesn’t matter in the big picture of who’s a contender and who can play. However this experience did not totally sour me on betting on the NBA it just reinforced that to be a professional you have to dedicate yourself to the craft. I still see myself giving this a shot full time someday but I am certainly done for this crazy season.