Finals

I had family in town over the holiday weekend and will not have the time before tip-off to break down the Finals properly. To sum up my thoughts in a few sentences I’d say it looks it is Dirk Nowitzki’s year making Dallas the team of destiny. That said LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are terrible matchups for the Mavericks. Caron Butler’s (right knee) return would help but DeShawn Stevenson, Shawn Marion and possibly Jason Kidd will have their work cut out for them big time with those two. If Dallas continues to make their 3-pointers at a 38.8% clip they can certainly win the series. In the end though everyone’s worst nightmare comes true, Miami in 6.

Conference Finals

Both of my pre-season Finals picks went down in flames in the second round dropping my overall record to 8-4 for the playoffs. Not that great but I can live with it as long as I go 3-0 the rest of the way.

EAST

Heat at Bulls

Chicago – Even though they were the best defensive team in the regular season I’m worried about who guards Dwyane Wade and LeBron James individually. Keith Bogans (right ankle) is tough but nowhere near quick enough to deal with Wade effectively. The same can be said about Luol Deng and his versatility but I don’t think Deng has the strength to keep James out of the lane. Look for Ronnie Brewer to spend a lot of time on both Dwyane and LeBron behind Bogans and Luol. The key for the Bulls is Carlos Boozer (right big toe) stepping up to become the 20/10 guy he was paid to be. I expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to start off with Joakim Noah on Chris Bosh and then move to Taj Gibson and Omer Asik to save Boozer for the offensive end. The biggest advantage Chicago has is their depth so Thibs has to stick with his normal rotation and hope that it eventually wears Miami down over the course of the series.

Miami – As far as individual matchups go the Heat have no one outside of Wade, James and Mario Chalmers that can even remotely stay in front of Derrick Rose. I expect Mike Bibby to give way to Chalmers very early in the first quarter and for Mario to possibly start at some point in the series. Look for Dwyane and LeBron to take turns checking Rose at the end of quarters and for whoever is having more success to be on Derrick at the end of the game. Even though Miami was the third best rebounding team in the regular season the Bulls were the best (+5.74 to +2.97). In the three games these two sides played against each other this year Chicago out rebounded the Heat by 10.7 boards a game (43.7 to 33) and the Bulls also grabbed 4.3 more offensive rebounds (11 to 6.7) too. Miami’s big men must crash the glass and maybe Udonis Haslem (left foot) returns to play a bigger role if they falter.

The pick – I expect this to be an ugly low scoring series that features plenty of defensive stops both ways. In the end the Heat are healthier and have more options in crunch time. Miami in 6.

WEST

Thunder at Mavericks

Dallas – They don’t have great individual stoppers for Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook but the Mavs do have enough to bother both. I look for Shawn Marion to start out on KD and be followed by DeShawn Stevenson. After that the pickings get slim but Corey Brewer could see time as could Caron Butler (right knee) if deemed healthy enough. Westbrook will be tougher for Dallas to handle, and while Jason Kidd is adequate to begin the game, I’d expect Stevenson and Jason Terry to check Russell for the majority of the time with Brewer seeing spot minutes as well. The Mavs are the slightly better defensive side and they certainly have more experience on this stage. I worry about how the long layoff of eight full days will affect Dallas’ 3-point shooting though. After scorching the nets to the tune of 46.2% as a team against the Lakers that number is bound to come down, just how much is the question.

Oklahoma City – The query for the Thunder is simple, who guards Dirk Nowitzki? Serge Ibaka has the length and athleticism to be the prototypical Dirk stopper but Ibaka (right knee & left ankle) hasn’t been his normal springy self lately. After Serge you are looking at Nick Collison who doesn’t have anywhere near the lateral quickness to handle Nowitzki. This leaves the matchup everyone wants to see…KD versus Dirk. While Durant doesn’t have the muscle to handle Nowitzki’s post up game he has the foot speed and the length. OKC has youth on their side but I worry about them wearing down mentally, especially Westbrook. Russ should have his way for the most part against the Mavs but he has to play smart and not forget to involve his teammates. The Thunder were the better rebounding team this season so Ibaka, Collison, Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed must exploit that by crashing the glass.

The pick – This series could easily go either way and in a contest this close coaching can make all the difference. At this point I have much more faith in Rick Carlisle than I do Scott Brooks, Dallas in 7.