First Round
EAST
Bulls at Cavaliers
Cleveland – Since Shaquille O’Neal (right thumb) and Antawn Jamison have only played in three games together coach Mike Brown has the luxury of being able to experiment with different combinations of players here. The Cavs may look out of sync at times since LeBron James hasn’t played in 10 days, but their depth, defense, passion and size will be enough to carry them past any continuity hiccups.
Chicago – Even with all their injuries and internal turmoil the Bulls still managed to scrape their way in to the post season. They play good defense, never give up and are a touch feisty which is actually a good combination for a heavy underdog. Derrick Rose will do all he can to keep them competitive but it won’t be near enough to win more than one game.
The pick – Cavs in 4.
Bucks at Hawks
Atlanta – The Hawks have looked a touch sluggish to me lately and I think it’s possible that they may have peaked a little too early this year. That said this group of players has tons of playoff experience together and that can’t be discounted. While their defensive numbers aren’t that great these guys always seem to ramp up their intensity in big games, and when they do that their athleticism can overwhelm the opposition.
Milwaukee –It’s really a shame that Andrew Bogut (right elbow/hand/wrist) won’t be able to play in this series. If he wasn’t hurt I could see an upset in the making here. As is the Bucks play hard and are a good defensive team, but I just don’t see a match up they can exploit. Sure Brandon Jennings can blow by Mike Bibby at will, but when Jennings tries to take over good things usually don’t follow.
The pick – Hawks in 5.
Heat at Celtics
Boston – These aging vets were only 9-9 over the final month of the season, are 25th in rebound differential and 10th in defensive field goal percentage (not good for them). Something tells me they will be able ratchet up their defense a few notches, but these guys also seem to run out of gas in the 4th quarter a lot. I think you’ll see them let Dwyane Wade “get his” and try to shut everyone else down.
Miami – The Heat closed the season on a 13-3 tear and are 2nd in opponent’s shooting percentage. They are well coached and everyone knows/accepts their role. To win they must out work Boston on the boards and keep the games close so Wade can finish them off at the end. I would not be surprised in the least to see them win this series, but in the end I don’t think they have enough balance to get it done.
The pick – Celts in 6.
Bobcats at Magic
Orlando – They closed the season 12-3, have the best point differential in the league, are the best defensive team percentage wise and are 4th in rebound differential. Oh yeah, they are super deep, well coached, can shoot the 3-ball and have a dominant big man. Not much bad to say about them other than they forget to get Dwight Howard the ball some times.
Charlotte – I expect coach Larry Brown to ugly this series up as much as possible. Look for Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed and Tyson Chandler (if healthy, left hip/elbow) to try and use all their fouls every game on Howard. I give the Cats a punchers chance but only if Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace play out of their heads for four games. In other words, it’s not likely.
The pick – Magic in 5.
WEST
Jazz at Nuggets
Denver – The Nugs finished the season 9-8 and did not look good at all in doing so. The main reason why was that Kenyon Martin (left knee) was out. Denver has nothing up front after K-Mart, Nene and Chris Andersen. To make matters worse coach George Karl (neck/throat cancer) won’t be coaching at all in this round. It’s going to be difficult for the Nuggets to win this series without a healthy Martin (and I don’t see him being healthy) and no Karl, but having home court should help a lot.
Utah – The entire Jazz starting front court is hurt and their status is in various levels of doubt. Andrei Kirilenko (left calf) is out for sure, Carlos Boozer (right oblique) probably won’t be right all series and Memo Okur (left Achilles) is hobbled. For Utah to prevail Paul Millsap must step up and Deron Williams is going have to flirt with a triple double every night. If my experience as a prognosticator has taught me anything it’s to always pick the healthier team in the post season.
The pick – Nugs in 7.
Thunder at Lakers
Los Angeles –LA closed the season 9-7 due to a rash of injuries. Andrew Bynum (left Achilles) is coming back, Jordan Farmar (left hamstring) is probable but Sasha Vujacic (left ankle) is doubtful. The biggest worry has to be Kobe Bryant though. Yes he’s playing with a broken right index finger, but something else has to be going on with him as his touch has completely left him recently. The Lakers are in for a battle here, but if they pound the ball in to Bynum (assuming he’s healthy) and Pau Gasol they should be ok. If the ball doesn’t move side to side on offense though they will be in BIG trouble.
Oklahoma City – The Thunder scare me big time as a Laker fan. They are healthier, younger, deeper and more athletic than LA is. They also play similar defense (6th to 5th) and rebound slightly better (6th to 7th). I expect Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to go off but OKC is a little small up front to deal the Lakers size. Nenad Krstic (right knee) is banged up and Jeff Green is too short/light to deal with Gasol or Bynum. Bench players Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka might see a lot of minutes here. If the Thunder can deal with big game pressure they will win this series.
The pick – Lakers in 7.
Spurs at Mavericks
Dallas – I really like the Mavs depth and athleticism and expect them to use both to their advantage here. Where Dallas has to tighten things up is on the boards. The Spurs are the far superior rebounding team (24th to 3rd) so Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Erik Dampier and Brendan Haywood all need to focus on hitting the glass as a unit. Familiarity breeds contempt, and this series is sure to get testy, but if the Mavs can maintain their cool I like their chances.
San Antonio – Tony Parker (right hand) has only been back for six pretty inconsistent games and George Hill (right ankle) is very gimpy. After those two it’s literally D-Leaguers on the PG depth chart for SA. For the Spurs to win this series Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan will have to be great together four times. In the past that wouldn’t be very much to ask, but these days both look very creaky at times, especially Duncan.
The pick – Mavs in 7.
Trail Blazers at Suns
Phoenix – The Suns closed the season on a 14-2 tear are were the hottest team in the West over the second half of the season. What makes this Phoenix team different is they aren’t terrible defensively (12th in defensive field goal percentage) while still scoring like crazy. As long as the Suns keep the tempo high they should be fine. Starting center Robin Lopez (back) missing this round shouldn’t hurt them too much either.
Portland – Sorry Blazer fans but not having Brandon Roy (right knee) is going to be too much to overcome here. That said I’ll give Portland a punchers chance if they are able to really ugly up the games and keep Phoenix under 100 points consistently. Rudy Fernandez snapping out of his season long funk would be big, as would Andre Miller abusing Steve Nash in the low post or LaMarcus Aldridge starting to earn his fat paycheck by performing well in big games.
The pick – Suns in 5.
Bulls at Cavaliers
Cleveland – Since Shaquille O’Neal (right thumb) and Antawn Jamison have only played in three games together coach Mike Brown has the luxury of being able to experiment with different combinations of players here. The Cavs may look out of sync at times since LeBron James hasn’t played in 10 days, but their depth, defense, passion and size will be enough to carry them past any continuity hiccups.
Chicago – Even with all their injuries and internal turmoil the Bulls still managed to scrape their way in to the post season. They play good defense, never give up and are a touch feisty which is actually a good combination for a heavy underdog. Derrick Rose will do all he can to keep them competitive but it won’t be near enough to win more than one game.
The pick – Cavs in 4.
Bucks at Hawks
Atlanta – The Hawks have looked a touch sluggish to me lately and I think it’s possible that they may have peaked a little too early this year. That said this group of players has tons of playoff experience together and that can’t be discounted. While their defensive numbers aren’t that great these guys always seem to ramp up their intensity in big games, and when they do that their athleticism can overwhelm the opposition.
Milwaukee –It’s really a shame that Andrew Bogut (right elbow/hand/wrist) won’t be able to play in this series. If he wasn’t hurt I could see an upset in the making here. As is the Bucks play hard and are a good defensive team, but I just don’t see a match up they can exploit. Sure Brandon Jennings can blow by Mike Bibby at will, but when Jennings tries to take over good things usually don’t follow.
The pick – Hawks in 5.
Heat at Celtics
Boston – These aging vets were only 9-9 over the final month of the season, are 25th in rebound differential and 10th in defensive field goal percentage (not good for them). Something tells me they will be able ratchet up their defense a few notches, but these guys also seem to run out of gas in the 4th quarter a lot. I think you’ll see them let Dwyane Wade “get his” and try to shut everyone else down.
Miami – The Heat closed the season on a 13-3 tear and are 2nd in opponent’s shooting percentage. They are well coached and everyone knows/accepts their role. To win they must out work Boston on the boards and keep the games close so Wade can finish them off at the end. I would not be surprised in the least to see them win this series, but in the end I don’t think they have enough balance to get it done.
The pick – Celts in 6.
Bobcats at Magic
Orlando – They closed the season 12-3, have the best point differential in the league, are the best defensive team percentage wise and are 4th in rebound differential. Oh yeah, they are super deep, well coached, can shoot the 3-ball and have a dominant big man. Not much bad to say about them other than they forget to get Dwight Howard the ball some times.
Charlotte – I expect coach Larry Brown to ugly this series up as much as possible. Look for Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed and Tyson Chandler (if healthy, left hip/elbow) to try and use all their fouls every game on Howard. I give the Cats a punchers chance but only if Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace play out of their heads for four games. In other words, it’s not likely.
The pick – Magic in 5.
WEST
Jazz at Nuggets
Denver – The Nugs finished the season 9-8 and did not look good at all in doing so. The main reason why was that Kenyon Martin (left knee) was out. Denver has nothing up front after K-Mart, Nene and Chris Andersen. To make matters worse coach George Karl (neck/throat cancer) won’t be coaching at all in this round. It’s going to be difficult for the Nuggets to win this series without a healthy Martin (and I don’t see him being healthy) and no Karl, but having home court should help a lot.
Utah – The entire Jazz starting front court is hurt and their status is in various levels of doubt. Andrei Kirilenko (left calf) is out for sure, Carlos Boozer (right oblique) probably won’t be right all series and Memo Okur (left Achilles) is hobbled. For Utah to prevail Paul Millsap must step up and Deron Williams is going have to flirt with a triple double every night. If my experience as a prognosticator has taught me anything it’s to always pick the healthier team in the post season.
The pick – Nugs in 7.
Thunder at Lakers
Los Angeles –LA closed the season 9-7 due to a rash of injuries. Andrew Bynum (left Achilles) is coming back, Jordan Farmar (left hamstring) is probable but Sasha Vujacic (left ankle) is doubtful. The biggest worry has to be Kobe Bryant though. Yes he’s playing with a broken right index finger, but something else has to be going on with him as his touch has completely left him recently. The Lakers are in for a battle here, but if they pound the ball in to Bynum (assuming he’s healthy) and Pau Gasol they should be ok. If the ball doesn’t move side to side on offense though they will be in BIG trouble.
Oklahoma City – The Thunder scare me big time as a Laker fan. They are healthier, younger, deeper and more athletic than LA is. They also play similar defense (6th to 5th) and rebound slightly better (6th to 7th). I expect Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to go off but OKC is a little small up front to deal the Lakers size. Nenad Krstic (right knee) is banged up and Jeff Green is too short/light to deal with Gasol or Bynum. Bench players Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka might see a lot of minutes here. If the Thunder can deal with big game pressure they will win this series.
The pick – Lakers in 7.
Spurs at Mavericks
Dallas – I really like the Mavs depth and athleticism and expect them to use both to their advantage here. Where Dallas has to tighten things up is on the boards. The Spurs are the far superior rebounding team (24th to 3rd) so Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Erik Dampier and Brendan Haywood all need to focus on hitting the glass as a unit. Familiarity breeds contempt, and this series is sure to get testy, but if the Mavs can maintain their cool I like their chances.
San Antonio – Tony Parker (right hand) has only been back for six pretty inconsistent games and George Hill (right ankle) is very gimpy. After those two it’s literally D-Leaguers on the PG depth chart for SA. For the Spurs to win this series Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan will have to be great together four times. In the past that wouldn’t be very much to ask, but these days both look very creaky at times, especially Duncan.
The pick – Mavs in 7.
Trail Blazers at Suns
Phoenix – The Suns closed the season on a 14-2 tear are were the hottest team in the West over the second half of the season. What makes this Phoenix team different is they aren’t terrible defensively (12th in defensive field goal percentage) while still scoring like crazy. As long as the Suns keep the tempo high they should be fine. Starting center Robin Lopez (back) missing this round shouldn’t hurt them too much either.
Portland – Sorry Blazer fans but not having Brandon Roy (right knee) is going to be too much to overcome here. That said I’ll give Portland a punchers chance if they are able to really ugly up the games and keep Phoenix under 100 points consistently. Rudy Fernandez snapping out of his season long funk would be big, as would Andre Miller abusing Steve Nash in the low post or LaMarcus Aldridge starting to earn his fat paycheck by performing well in big games.
The pick – Suns in 5.
posted by D$ at 2:15 PM
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