LA Trade and Down Goes GA

Los Angeles Gets: Trevor Ariza

Orlando Gets: Brian Cook & Maurice Evans

For the Lakers…

As hard as it might be to believe, on 11/20 LA GM Mitch Kupchak actually made a good trade for a change. Ariza is a young (22 years old), long (6’8) and extremely athletic SF. While his jumper is very shaky, Trevor can finish at the rim, defend and rebound. What makes this such a great deal for the Lakers is that Ariza is a type of player that LA does not have anywhere else on their roster. An athletic defensive minded guy with size on the wings is something the Lakers have been lacking for a long while.

The bad part of this move for LA is losing Evans. Mo is not destined for stardom or anything, but in the ten minutes or so behind Kobe Bryant the Lakers could do much worse. And in fact, they will. Now the bane of my existence, Sasha Vujacic, steps in to those afore mentioned ten minutes to drive me crazy on a nightly basis. I know Coby Karl lacks the athleticism to be an NBA player, but at least Karl plays smart and gives an honest effort. Can’t really say the same for Sasha.

Jettisoning Cook’s sour puss for anything is good news to me because Vladimir Radmanovic is the same player as Cookie, only better. Conversely, Trevor’s arrival in LA could eventually spell the end of Luke Walton’s days in the rotation.

For the Magic…

As I wrote in my pre-season piece, I thought Orlando would eventually trade Hedo Turkoglu for some help up front because Turk’s talents are the same as big free agent signing Rashard Lewis. Well, Magic GM Otis Smith went in the exact opposite direction by dealing the guy with a different skill set (Ariza) for another player in Cook that triplicates what Hedo and R-Lew already do.

I can see what Otis is thinking though. Lewis and Turkoglu have played so well in tandem off big man Dwight Howard that Smith wants to have another guy off the bench that keeps their two-big-forwards-that-can-shoot-from-deep alignment going. While Brian’s skills do fit that mold, Cookie’s intensity, rebounding and commitment to defense are lacking more times than not.

The Evans addition intrigues me more because I don’t see how he fits in down there. He’s more or less the same player as starting SG Keith Bogans is. However I’d take Mo over either Keyon Dooling or J.J. Redick as a backup. The problem with that is it’s normally not a good idea to back up a guy with someone that does the same things. Although Orlando seems to be trying to buck that trend. I suppose the plan could be to play Evans behind Hedo at SF, but as much as I like Mo he doesn’t have the size to defend most SF’s.

Winner – Lakers

> On 11/21 Gilbert Arenas underwent two different surgical procedures on his left knee. The same knee he had surgery on late last season by the way. This time around he had a partial tear of the meniscus repaired (again) and microfracture surgery on a non-weight bearing bone on the side of his knee. The second part of his procedure (microfracture) is going all but unmentioned in most reports and I’m not sure why. The prognosis for Arenas is about three months, but something tells me it could be much, much longer than that before he’s back to the Gil of old.

The silver lining in this for Washington is that I don’t think they’re really that much worse off. Veteran Antonio Daniels is more than an adequate replacement for GA. While Daniels may wear down a little with the additional minutes, AD is a completely different player than Arenas. Antonio is a distributor first on offense (as opposed to a scorer), a great decision maker who knows how to run a team and a solid defender taboot. The way Daniels plays the position will allow Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler to increase their production organically without taking touches away from the rest of the squad.

The real key for the Wizards staying afloat though is what their young players give them while Gil is out. Third year big man Andray Blatche has really impressed me lately (even before GA went down). Blatche has always been one of those “upside” guys whose head really didn’t match his physical gifts. Well he seems to be “getting it” a little bit more now, although his focus still wanes at times and he’s exceptionally foul prone. That said, the kid is very long and ultra-athletic for someone his size (weight, not height). While Andray is still developing as an on-ball defender, he’s got a knack for blocking shots from the weak side already. He doesn’t really have a go-to move on offense, but if he can continue to rebound the ball and stick to garbage/transition points, Washington may just have their center of the future.

The Wiz could also use some consistent scoring from rookie SG Nick Young, and he seems capable of that, albeit not much else. Another rookie, SF Dominic McGuire, hasn’t played much but I’ve liked what little I’ve seen of him. Their third rookie, Oleksiy Pecherov, has yet to play a game (fractured right ankle) and is at least two weeks away from returning to practice. Hopefully for them Pech and McGuire can combined to contribute something behind Butler at SF.

Washington only needs to stay within shouting distance of .500 until Arenas gets back and they should be fine. Obviously for that to happen Antonio, Tawn and Caron need to stay healthy and step up, but Blatche and Young becoming dependable is no less important. Heck, without GA dominating the ball the Wiz might even be fun to watch again.

Three Weeks In...

As someone who takes his “job” as an analyst far too seriously, I struggle with what to write about early in the season. So rather than jumping to conclusions I’ll probably regret after each club has only played between seven and ten games, I thought I’d comment on individual players instead of entire teams.

Rookies

Kevin Durant – This kid leads the league in hype, but after watching him play I don’t really get it. I’m sure he’ll be a good scorer in time, but right now he’s borderline bad. The fact that he’s averaging 20.1 points per game means nothing when you see how he gets them.

Durant is allowed to take TERRIBLE shots from all over the place. A one dribble contested pull-up 3 from five feet behind the line? Nothing but backboard. Seriously, I’ve see Kevin miss the rim from deep entirely about three to five times.

The reason for his poor shooting (38.2% FG & 30.2% 3FG) is simple. He’s too skinny to get to his spots. That lack of muscle also plays into his poor rebounding (4.9 rpg) for his size. But maybe most troubling of all for someone as athletic as Durant is his defense. He’s pretty much clueless on that end of the floor.

Kevin looks like a more athletic version of Adam Morrison right now, with his upside being something along the lines of Glenn Robinson. Since I never saw him play in college I'm only going on what he's done as a pro. And basically KD has a long way to go, but at 19 years old he does have plenty of time.

Jeff Green – I can’t figure this guy out. Not what position he’s best suited for or what his actual skill set is. He’s kind of like a more athletic version of Luke Walton at the moment, or someone that is OK at everything but good at nothing.

Yi Jianlian – I’ve been very impressed with him thus far. Yi can put it on the floor, hit from mid-range to out deep and is an above average athlete for his size. It doesn’t end there though, as he also has a high basketball IQ and understands how to play team defense already. As an example, I’ve seen him come for the weak side to block or alter numerous shots already.

While Yi can rebound some (6.9 rpg) I think he’s capable of doing a better job there. Where he’s really poor at the moment is individual defense. Pretty much anybody blows right by him off the dribble, and he’s no better in the post. He’s kind of a hybrid Dirk Nowitzki/Andrei Kirilenko clone right now.

Even though I highly doubt that Yi is 20 years old, GM Larry Harris deserves credit for sticking to his guns and picking him. Coach Larry Krystkowiak is also worthy of praise for starting Yi over Charlie Villanueva. Nice calls all around.

Al Horford – He looks like he’ll be a double-double guy for years to come. In addition to being able to rebound, Horford can also play defense in the post either on the ball or away from it. The thing with Al is I don’t see him as a star in the league. Solid is the word I’d use to describe Horford, or like a slightly better version of P.J. Brown in his prime.

Jamario Moon – The 27 year old rookie first caught my eye when he beat out Luke Jackson for Toronto’s final roster spot. Well Mr. Moon can play a little bit too. He’s a long athletic swingman that can defend, rebound and finish at the rim. Jamario went from not playing in the Raptors first four games to starting their last three. Not bad for someone who was never drafted out of Meridian Community College and bounced around the NBDL, USBL, CBA, ABA and WBA.

Young Players

Ronnie Brewer – He leads the Jazz in steals (2.7 spg), is third in scoring (14.2 ppg) and sports a 21.11 PER. I think it’s safe to say that Utah has finally filled their SG void. My only question is, why didn’t he play last season?

Jason Maxiell – He’s done a fine job off the bench and filling in for the injured Antonio McDyess (strained left shoulder) as a starter. Max plays with an attitude and is a beast down low. Jason is a HUGE upgrade from the artist formerly known as Chris Webber.

Ike Diogu – Was playing really well (19.01 PER) for the Pacers until he tore his left calf muscle.

Brandon Bass – Is giving the Mavericks quality minutes off the bench and is a productive player for the first time in his career. BB is putting up 9.1 ppg and 5.6 rpg in 22.9 mpg. His PER of 15.35 blows away his previous high of 9.17.

Darko Milicic – It looks as if he’s finally playing with his head in the game. It’s amazing what a little intensity will do for ya. The days of Darko’s star potential are gone, but I’m sure Memphis will take 10.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.88 bpg and 50.7% shooting.

Andrea Bargnani – I don’t like what I’ve been seeing from him at all. He’s become a stand around jump shooter and nothing else. That wouldn't be so bad if he wasn’t shooting a paltry 38.6% from the field.

Injured

Gilbert Arenas – His left knee is still not right no matter what he says. He’s shooting career low’s from the field (39%) and 3 (21.2%) while committing a career high in turnovers (4.9 topg) . His free throw shooting (75.3%) and PER (16.54) are also the second lowest of his career. Not exactly the numbers Gil was hoping for in a contract year.

Ben Wallace – While there’s no doubt he’s on the decline, I don’t think he’s really this bad. The 5.5 rpg, 3.7 ppg, 1.1 bpg and .7 spg he’s averaging are the lowest since his first two years in the league. Wallace is also sporting career lows in field goal shooting (30.3%) and PER (7.37). Since Big Ben can hardly move out there right now (sprained left ankle) a few games off might not be a bad idea.

Nenad Krstic – Is no where near fully recovered from his torn left ACL. It may be more mental than anything because he looks very tentative on the court.

Larry Hughes – I mean what’s this guy made of, glass? He’s out four weeks with a deep bone bruise in his left leg now. Whether it is ankles, knees, wrists or fingers, you name it, Larry has missed games because of it. What a colossal $60 million dollar BUST!

Nene Hilario – Another $60 million dollar BUST that is constantly injured. This time he’ll miss up to six weeks with a torn ligament in his left thumb. I’m sure all the restaurants around his house are ecstatic.

Babies

Stephon Marbury – Leaves the Knicks for a game after being told he was losing his starting spot. Ummm Steph, you’ve never won anything and the teams you join ALWAYS get worse after you arrive. Marbury’s PER has dropped from a high of 21.97 in ’04-05 to 16.52 to 15.36 to 14.47 now. He and Steve Francis are the case studies for scoring PG’s that relied solely on their athletic ability and never learned to play their position properly. This explains how “Starbury” lost his job to the illustrious Mardy Collins and Nate Robinson.

John Salmons – Storms out of the locker room after his first game coming off the bench behind Ron Artest. WHAT?!?! Listen up here buddy, you’re John freaking Salmons for cripes sake. Just because you put up decent numbers as a starter on a bad team doesn’t mean you deserve minutes over Ron Artest. Coach Reggie Theus summed it up nicely when he said, “That's his role, and he's got to make an adjustment. There's really nothing more you can say about it.”

Veterans

Manu Ginobili – Currently has the highest PER in the NBA at 33.27. Manu a renewed pep in his step and is easily playing the best ball of his career.

Jason Terry – Has adapted extremely well to his new role as 6th man putting up 21.8 ppg on 56.8% shooting from the field and 53.7% from 3.

Chris Kaman – Has really stepped up in Elton Brand’s (left Achilles’) absence to average 18.4 ppg, 14 rpg, 2.5 bpg on 49.1% shooting and 89.2% from the free throw line.

Richard Jefferson – Is back to his old self and leads the Nets in scoring at 24.9 ppg, which also happens to be a career high. With Vince Carter (right ankle) out RJ must keep it going as New Jersey’s primary option on offense.

Yao Ming – He’s been dominating like he should so far, but will need to take it up yet another level while Tracy McGrady (right elbow) is out.

Jason Richardson – Has struggled mightily to start the season. He’s jacking up the most shots on the Bobcats (15.8 fgapg) but shooting 39.7% from the field, 42.2% from 3 and 60% from the free throw line. J-Rich, you’re not making me look good here.

Bonzi Wells – Is back from the dead.

Next

Dwight Howard – This dude is an absolute MONSTER. He’s improved his touch around the basket and on short jumpers alike. He also has noticeably improved his footwork in the low post. It’s scary to think how good he’ll be in five years when he’s already averaging 21.8 ppg, 15 rpg (leads league), 2.4 bpg and shooting 54.7%. Even his free throw shooting (65.4%) is the best it’s been since his rookie year.

LeBron James – His jumper is consistently on balance now when he releases it and he squares up his shoulders much better as well. He leads Cleveland in scoring (29.2 ppg, leads league), assists (8 apg), steals (1.8 spg) and blocks (1.7 bpg). Bron is also third on his team in rebounds (7.8 rpg), shooting (47.2%) and 3-point shooting (37.5%). Needless to say, the Cavaliers would STINK with him.

Some Early Season Player Movement

While I normally hesitate to comment too much on teams and/or players until the ‘Quarter Pole Review’, there were a few moves made early this season that need to be addressed.

Miami Gets: Ricky Davis & Mark Blount

Minnesota Gets: Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, Wayne Simien, a 1st round pick & cash

For the Heat…

President/coach Pat Riley made this move out of desperation more than anything else. Sure he and Toine were at odds over conditioning, but deep down Riles knew his squad needed an infusion of talent. So Miami gave up only one rotation player (Walker) in exchange for two guys who should contribute nightly.

Davis will step right in and start at SF for the Heat, while Blount will back up Udonis Haslem at PF. The reason I mentioned Riley was desperate is that neither Ricky nor Mark are his type of player. Davis likes to freelance and gun away on offense then hit “da club” at night. On the other hand Blount is well known for his laziness in practice and inability to produce consistently. I know the talk is all fine and dandy now, but come February we’ll see.

Overall Ricky is a slight upgrade over Toine and Mark’s mid-range jumper fits well with Shaquille O’Neal’s low post game. However I question whether Davis will be satisfied as the third option on a good team. I also wonder how long before Blount is a permanent member of Pat’s dog house.

Another under the radar angle to this trade is that two of Miami’s youngsters (Dorell Wright & Alexander Johnson) basically lost their minutes when Ricky and Mark arrived. While that might be fine for this year, it’s counterproductive long term. All of these combined factors are why I saw no reason to adjust the Heat’s place in my pre-season predictions.

For the Timberwolves…

This move was all about shaving money off the payroll so Minny can rebuild quicker. Walker’s contract runs one less year than Blount’s does and Doleac is up after the season. Simien was released by the Wolves before he even had a chance to pack his things and board a plane. The first round pick VP Kevin McHale received is lottery protected in 2008, top ten protected in 2009 and top six protected in 2010.

On the court neither guy should play much as Minny goes with their youth movement. But if they do get some burn Doleac is still a serviceable bruiser with a soft touch from the outside. Whereas Toine should be in hog heaven jacking up crazy shots from anywhere in the building on a bad club.

Winner – Heat

> On 10/30 the Dallas Mavericks signed veteran big man Juwan Howard to a one year contract after he was bought out by Minnesota. Kudos to President Donnie Nelson for yet another extremely savvy move.

When I evaluated Dallas before the season I thought their one glaring weakness was depth behind Dirk Nowitzki (my apologies to Brandon Bass). So even though Juwan’s best days are behind him, he gives the Mavs another quality big man defender to check Tim Duncan or Carlos Boozer come playoff time.

> The Sacramento Kings signed PG Beno Udrih to a one year contract on 11/1 after he was waived by Minnesota. The Timberwolves had acquired him in a trade from San Antonio on 10/29. The move was a salary dump by the Spurs and they will never see the 2nd round pick Minny sent their way.

Anyway, Udrih is a nice pickup for the Kings who needed an experienced PG badly after Mike Bibby went down. This is a golden opportunity for Beno to resurrect his once promising career because Sacto has nothing at the point besides Orien Greene. Udrih broke his left index finger in training camp, but is expected back as soon as 11/9.

> On 10/29 the Cleveland Cavaliers signed rookie Demetris Nichols after he was waived by New York four days prior. Nichols (53rd pick) came to the Knicks as part of the Zach Randolph trade. I can’t pretend to know what kind of player Demetris is, but he’s supposed to be a shooter, which is something the Cavs desperately need. Plus if Isiah Thomas drafted him, I’m guessing he can play.