Team USA Preview

Team USA went 5-0 in their pre-Olympic friendlies looking great at times and suspect at others. That shouldn’t be a surprise if you’ve been following the “Redeem Team” over the past three years.

First was a 120-65 destruction of Canada in Las Vegas on 7/25. After a slow opening stanza the boys came out with intensity and played with purpose on defense from the second quarter on. This was really nothing to get excited about though since the Canadians stink.

Then on 7/31 in Macau, China they blitzed Turkey 114-82. This was another solid showing after a slow start with good defense leading the way. But again the Turks are not world powers and they were playing without Hedo Turkoglu and Memo Okur.

Next came what was supposed to be Team USA’s first big test against Lithuania in Macau on 8/1. The Americans had other ideas however as they delivered their first dominating first quarter together and rolled to a 120-84 victory. After being shell-shocked to open the game the Lithuanians actually played OK the rest of the way though.

Then, for some reason, things changed when they landed in Shanghai, China. Although they did beat Russia 89-68 on 8/3 they were not as crisp and into it as they were in the previous three contests. Now they could have just been bored/tired, or looking ahead to Beijing, but Russian coach David Blatt (he’s American, and should have a job in the NBA by now) actually had a very solid game plan. Of course he played a packed in zone, but it was his decision to never send anyone to the offensive glass on misses that really controlled the tempo for Russia. You see if four guys are always back on defense it’s pretty hard for the opposition to fast break.

Anyway the finale on 8/5 in Shanghai was even worse in terms of intensity and focus. Yes the Americans still won 87-76 against Australia (who were without their best player, Andrew Bogut), but in doing so Team USA also lost a quarter for the first time (the 3rd, 26-21) and gave everyone else hope that zone defense and smart offense is still the way to beat us.

(Yes, I actually did watch all five games from start to finish.)

If it isn’t already obvious, we aren’t head and shoulders above the rest of the world anymore and there is a definite blueprint on how to beat us. So why not do what all these other countries do and not show our hand right off the jump? Now if Coach K was really doing that once they got to Shanghai he deserves kudos, but I kinda doubt he was.

That’s why I’m in the minority of people that think these friendlies need to be treated as such…friendlies. If we lose some because we’re holding back and/or experimenting who really cares? The goal is to win the last three games of the Olympics, nothing more, and it’s well past time that the mainstream media catches on to this.

For starters it gives us a better chance to win if we play things close to the vest. (Contrary to popular belief, the rest of the world DOES watch film.) Secondly, our guys would play much more freely if they didn’t feel the pressure to have to dominate every minute of every game.

So with that recap/rant out of the way I give you my five keys to success followed by an individual breakdown of Team USA’s roster. Keep checking in with my blog throughout the Olympics as I *plan* on doing previews and reviews (if I'm able to see them) of each game we play.

(Look for a USA-China preview on 8/9.)

1. Play with patience against all zone defenses

Make no mistake, every single country that can beat us will play zone D and pack in the lane almost exclusively. The players must MOVE THE BALL to get open looks and resist their natural tendencies to go one-on-one all the time. In that same vein our guys have to penetrate the gaps of the zone and MAKE PLAYS FOR OTHERS.

It’s very rare in the international game that a player can break down a zone D and get all the way to the rack. The reason for this is simple, there’s no illegal defense in FIBA. What that means is three guys will be waiting at the cup on just about every drive.

I know it seems simple, but for some reason our players don’t possess the necessary patience to do this. And I think a big part of it is the whole “we need to dominate” attitude. Any coach worth his salt will tell you that zone defenses are easy to beat as long as you’re patient and move the ball.

Fast break dunks and alley-oops are great in friendlies, but they won’t win us gold medals anymore. We just have to accept the fact that our games are going to be low scoring tight affairs and adjust our strategy accordingly. Seriously, with all the talent we have breaking down a zone *should be* a piece of cake.

2. Play solid team defense

There’s no time for Team USA to learn how to play effective zone D so proper rotations in their man-to-man defense are key. Obviously we have had trouble defending the pick and roll in recent years, but it’s deeper than that. What ever happens on the pick and roll; from a guy going over or under the screen to switching isn’t the problem. It’s not even the second pass that kills us, but more often it’s the third and sometimes fourth pass after the pick and roll where we lose it.

There’s no real easy way to fix this besides repetition and communication. The players have to know who jumps out to the first open man and who rotates over and on down the line in every imaginable situation. So if they are prepared for whatever comes at them, the next thing they need to do is let each other know what’s coming and where they are going.

Again, in writing that may seem simple, but playing good fundamental team D is very difficult and usually takes years to develop properly. An average club can rotate out to the first open man but to win the gold we need to rotate and recover to all five guys while we are seeing a steady diet of the pick and roll.

3. Shoot above 40% on 3-pointers and 70% on free throws as a team every night

Forget fast break points, steals, turnovers and assists (all statistics the Americans normally dominate when they win), if Team USA reaches the two somewhat lofty goals above they’ll go undefeated in the Olympics regardless of what happens with the first two points.

For this to occur LeBron James and Dwight Howard need to step it up at the FT line…plain and simple. Next Michael Redd, Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony must knock down open looks from deep. In fact they should only shoot 3’s if they are open and never a hoist a contested three unless it’s desperation time.

4. Rebound the ball!!!

Here’s some numbers for ya: In the five friendlies Team USA played they out rebounded their opponents by only +1.4 rebounds per game (37.4 to 36.0). That’s not great by any means, but then take into account that the opposition out rebounded Team USA by an average of 3 rpg on the offensive glass (7.8 to 10.8). That simply will not cut it.

Much has been made about the American roster’s lack of size, which I agree with and will touch on later, but nothing can be done about that now. While Howard is the best rebounder in the NBA, it’s Chris Bosh that really needs to muscle up and get the job done when D Howitzer is getting a rest. After that it’s on Bron and Melo as the squad’s PF’s to join in the banging down low and work the boards. Carlos Boozer is probably Team USA’s second best glass eater but I doubt he’ll play enough to make a difference.

5. Don’t let the referees get to you

People love to kill my beloved Association over the state of its officiating, but let me tell you FIBA refs take it to another level entirely. The thing about FIBA zebras is they are blatantly biased against us. They actually revel in not giving guys “star calls.” Heck, they probably even look forward to these opportunities where they get to show us Americans up.

Anyway, we have to KNOW THIS going in and not get caught up in stare downs with guys who don’t even speak English. No complaining, no yelling or talking in general to the refs…and I mean AT ALL. They all need to play with smiles on their faces and thank the officials for making the right call…no matter how bad it was.

Not only can the zebras get in their heads and affect their individual performances, but the refs get this perverse pleasure in knowing they got to the players, and that in turn makes them do it more. You can accuse me of being a homer but I’ve watched enough international ball to know that this really does happen/exist.

STARTERS

PG – Deron Williams – Let’s call him the de facto starter since he’s technically not the starter but will probably see the most minutes at the position anyway. D Wil is by far the best wreaker of havoc against the zone on Team USA. His combination of strength and quickness lets him get into the lane pretty much at will. He also makes good decisions with the ball and can hit an open 3-pointer if left alone.

SG – Kobe Bryant – The “Doberman” is the defensive leader for this club and sets the tone on that end as well. When he comes out fired up and in the opposition’s best perimeter player’s face his teammates feed off his energy. Of course he’s also their second best 3-point shooter, go-to-guy in the clutch, an underrated playmaker and can help out on the glass too.

SF – LeBron James – He plays the role of quintessential do-it-all small forward for Team USA. He rebounds, creates, shoots, finishes on the break and also plays sticky defense at times. He is the vocal leader for the Americans and keeps his teammates loose yet focused. The less he scores the better we generally do.

PF – Carmelo Anthony – He’s the prototypical FIBA power forward with his ability to score inside and out, rebound and defend bigs on the perimeter. I have to admit that I’m a little worried about Melo though. He’s been Team USA’s best player the last two summers but really hasn’t gotten it going yet. Some say he’s laying back more, but we need the dominant-take-charge Anthony that can’t be stopped to bring home the gold.

C – Dwight Howard – His job is simple; rebound, block shots, defend the paint and clean up the scraps on offense. Dwight is another guy I’m concerned about because I don’t see him grasping the international game yet. It seemed like he was trying at first but as the friendlies wore on he played less defense, looked for his offense more and barked at Coach K a little too much for my liking.

ROTATION PLAYERS

6th Man – Dwyane Wade – He has looked AWESOME in the friendlies. His explosiveness is back and he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder trying to prove his doubters wrong. He is perfectly suited to the “instant offense” off the pine role he’s been given. Look for him to play an important role for Team USA.

2nd PG – Chris Paul – There’s no bigger CP3 fan than me, but I’d still have arguably the third best player in the world coming off the bench. The reason being his quickness - combined with that of Wade - should tear the opponent’s second unit to shreds. The Americans should have a decided advantage late in the 1st and 3rd and at the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters. The other reason I’d bring Paul off the pine is that he tends to force the issue at times making bad decisions and he doesn’t have the size/strength combo of Williams either.

1st Big – Chris Bosh – By the end of the friendlies Coach K was already playing CB4 over Howard in clutch situations where Team USA needed stops. That’s all fine and good, but what Chris adds to the squad defensively he takes away on the glass. For instance, Bosh averaged 2.4 rpg in the friendlies...or the same as CP3 and less than D Wade.

Designated Shooter – Michael Redd – In the friendlies as soon as any team went zone Coach K immediately brought in Redd (he shot 12-24 from distance in the five games). The strange thing to me was how little Michael played other than that. He’d come in, bust the zone, and sit back down. The reason he’s not playing more is simple…he’s allergic to defense. How he’s being used is fine but it lends credence to my idea that guys like Jason Kapono or Kyle Korver should be in this spot over Redd. JK and KK also play no D, but they are better shooters and already used to this role.

DEEP BENCH

Token Starter – Jason Kidd – To this day I have no idea why Kidd is even on the roster. He can’t shoot and is only effective in an open court game (which we’ve already covered won’t be the case in Beijing). Does a team with Kobe AND Bron really need a veteran leader? I think not. Jason is taking up a spot that should be for the fourth big man (Marcus Camby since Tyson Chandler is injured) and there is no reason that Team USA ,with all its versatility, needs three PG’s (or a token starter for that matter).

2nd Big – Carlos Boozer – I’ve been trying to figure out why Coach K isn’t playing him more and it finally hit me. Booz is a good guy that will be OK with not playing a whole lot. He’s also a bona fide Yao Ming stopper if the need arises. Other than that he’s a nice insurance policy in case something happens to Howard or Bosh.

Jack-of-all-trades – Tayshaun Prince – I’d take this dude on my team ANY DAY. He’s a flat out winner and completely underrated. He’ll be fine with his role of secondary defensive stopper and could see time along side Kobe if the opposition has two guys that are killing us from the outside.

Coach – Mike Krzyzewski – I still think an NBA guy should be steering this ship, but K seems to be a quality motivator and has definitely instilled a camaraderie that his predecessors George Karl and Larry Brown failed miserably at. That said, there are times to me where he looks lost as to what to do. FIBA ball is much closer to the NBA than NCAA in terms of scouting and the specialization of match ups. So it’s not like he doesn’t know basketball, but in big time international game situations K worries me quite a bit.

So in closing have we learned from our past mistakes? Yes we have…to a degree. There’s still a fundamental flaw in how we select our team though. We pick a bunch of NBA All-Stars and expect them to magically be great FIBA/team/role players. Instead of this why don’t we construct a “real” NBA unit, you know a group with designated role players, stars, etc? That way they could play NBA ball and take it to these flopping, soft, outside shooting internationals. Does anybody really think the Celtics (no international players) would lose to Spain or Argentina? I sure don’t.

PREDICTIONS

Group A
1. Argentina
2. Lithuania
3. Russia
4. Australia
5. Croatia
6. Iran

Group B
1. USA
2. Spain
3. Greece
4. China
5. Germany
6. Angola

Bronze – Argentina
Silver – Spain
Gold – USA