Lakers at Celtics

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 42.15%
Los Angeles – 43.34%

Rebound Differential
Boston – +3.25
Los Angeles – -3.40

Point Differential
Boston – +4.30
Los Angeles – +6.40

Shooting
Boston – 44.80%
Los Angeles – 47.75%

3-Point Shooting
Boston – 33.23%
Los Angeles – 37.59%

Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 78.40%
Los Angeles – 76.24%

Turnovers
Boston – 12.05
Los Angeles – 12.53

Fouls
Boston – 24.15
Los Angeles – 22.20

Pace Factor
Boston – 87.4
Los Angeles – 96.1

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar – Rondo is certainly the quicker of the two making him the superior penetrater, but after that I don’t see any facet of the game where he has an edge over Fisher. Derek is more experienced, a better outside shooter and commands much more respect from the referees. And while Rajon is a great on-ball defender, Fish is no slouch in that category either. You can expect the Lakers to leave Rondo open A LOT in this series daring him to beat them with his jumper. The story is the same for Derek; make open shots and be a steadying influence in the locker room.

After being taken out of his game by Utah’s physicality Farmar bounced back nicely against San Antonio shooting 45.7% from the field and 41.7% from three. Cassell on the other hand has been killing his squad regularly in the playoffs. I don’t see that changing here as Jordan will make Sam look like he’s wearing cement shoes if they get matched up against each other.

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic – I wonder if Allen wishes he never had a “feud” with Bryant right about now? Probably seemed like a good idea at the time, but now that Ray’s skills are declining and Kobe is in his prime…not so much. I’m not going to sugar coat it, Allen has no chance to defend Bryant. NONE! And I would highly recommend that Ray not to trash talk at Kobe…even a little bit. LA would be wise to “blitz double” Allen occasionally making him a passer. This tactic worked when Cleveland used it and sent Ray spiraling into possibly the biggest slump of his career.

The backups provide pretty much the same thing for their clubs in terms of energy and 3-point shooting. The difference being that Vujacic is also a solid defender, ball handler and world class agitator. Look for Sasha to see plenty of time on Allen down the stretch of games when Bryant moves over to check PP.

A wild card for the Celts here is Tony Allen. He’s been struggling with a strained right Achilles tendon, but if he’s right he possesses the length and athleticism to bother “Triple Ocho” some.

Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton – Finally a match up that favors Boston! Radmanovic played some of his best ball of the post season against the Spurs, but I fail to see how he’ll deal with Pierce. Vlade is longer than Paul - and not that much slower - but PP’s effort, intensity and savvy figures to dwarf that of Radmanovic. Pierce did a terrific job frustrating LeBron James and Tayshaun Prince in the previous two rounds, but the “Mamba” is a whole different animal. If Paul has to expend a ton of energy defending Kobe every night I doubt PP will be able to score like his team will need him to.

Posey is the closest thing the Celts have to a true “defensive stopper”, but I just don’t think he’s quick enough to check Bryant. I’m sure Walton will get abused by Pierce while fumbling a bunch of wide open lay-ups in the process. CAN’T WAIT!

The wild card here for the Lakers is Trevor Ariza. I know it’s tough to just throw him into the NBA Finals after 10 total playoff minutes and say “All you have to do now is stop Paul Pierce.” But it might have to come to that if Vlade and Luke can’t get the job done and Coach Jackson wants to “save” Kobe for crunch time.

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf – This is probably the main event in terms of a one-on-one match up in the Finals. Both guys are long, athletic, multi-skilled offensively, solid defenders, great rebounders and tend to shrink from the spotlight in big moments. I’d say KG is more powerful in the low post and LO quicker on the perimeter. So which player is more aggressive establishing his asset and getting the other into foul trouble is really what this tussle is about. If Odom can stay on the floor and somewhat offset what Garnett does that will be huge for LA.

Why Coach Rivers plays Glen Davis over the far more productive Powe at times continues to baffle me, but by all means Doc, keep it up another round. Turiaf has done a fine job in his 10 minutes per game as the Lakers third big man providing energy, defense, rebounding and shot blocking. In fact, Leon can do those same things (except block shots) for Boston if he gets the chance.

Center
Kendrick Perkins & P.J. Brown v Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga – This is the sleeper match up of the Finals because it pits youth and strength versus savvy and finesse. Even though Perkins seems to be coming into his own at just the right time I’m not sure he can defend the Spaniard. Pau is way quicker in the open court and too versatile on offense for Kendrick to deal with. Now if Perk had some post moves of his own he could probably overpower Gasol, but as is KP has to find a way to stay in the game because his squad needs his rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. I expect Pau’s length will bother KG some if they end up on each other, but the main thing for Gasol is to stay active on the boards at all times.

Brown’s minutes have been steadily increasing as the post season wears on and if Perkins struggles against Pau that trend should continue. That said, P.J. lacks the foot speed to stay with Gasol or Lamar in a full court game. Since Mbenga wasn’t used at all against Tim Duncan he won’t see the light of day here.

Coach
Doc Rivers v Phil Jackson – I mean wow, do I really have to type anything here? There’s not a single aspect of being a head coach where Rivers is even in the same league as Phil. It could be interesting to see if the “Zen Master” can pull a few “Jedi Mind Tricks” on Doc though. I can see it now at a Jackson press conference. “I think he (Rivers) was right not to put Pierce back into the game until there was two minutes to go. Very sound strategy by Doc.”

Overall

The Celts won both contests between these two sides during the season, one on 11/23 in Boston and the other in LA on 12/30 (where the Lakers wore throw back short shorts in the first half). I’m not sure how much stock you can put into them though since Pau Gasol didn’t play in either game and Rajon Rondo missed the 12/30 tilt. That said all the numbers favor the Celts pretty heavily.

Boston averaged more rebounds (+6.5 rpg), assists (+5 apg), steals (+3 spg), free throw attempts (+8.5 ftapg) and made (+5 ftmpg). They also averaged less fouls (-6.5 pfpg) and turnovers (-1.5 topg) while shooting a higher average percentage (+9.65%). But the biggest whopper of them all is that the Celts outscored LA by an average of 16 points per game. That’s not a good stat if you’re a Laker fan.

Even with all that evidence the main problem for Boston in this series boils down to how do they limit Kobe Bryant's effectiveness? They could take the Gregg Popovich approach by not fouling him, but I don’t see the refs giving the Celts the same type of “respect” they give the Spurs. The next strategy is to be extra physical with him and hope he eventually wears down over the long haul. Quite frankly I don’t see either of those working because both end up with Kobe getting plenty of easy looks. The best thing Boston can do is to double team him on and off throughout, varying the time of the double and the person who does it.

The next thing the Celts need to do is keep the tempo slow and impose their style of ball on LA. The reason I say that is because Boston can’t afford to fall into the trap many other clubs do of trading baskets with the Lakers. The Celts just don’t have the depth or firepower to play that style.

The more I think about it Boston’s best lineup might be to go small with a front court of Pierce, Posey and Garnett with Rondo and Allen as the guards. LA would counter with Fisher, Vujacic, Bryant, Odom and Gasol. Unfortunately for my readers in New England I don’t see that ending well for the Celts, even though I expect those units to be the finishing fives for each squad.

The Lakers are 34-7 with Pau in the lineup and 15 of those are playoff games. Think about that for second. That computes to 68-14 over an entire season. Now also consider that LA has already won twice in Denver (33-8 at home) and once each in Utah (37-4) and San Antonio (34-7). That would be three of the six best home records in the NBA this year, so Boston’s 35-6 mark in the Gah-den shouldn’t faze them one bit.

Another myth to debunk early is that the Celts defense is going to shut the Lakers down. Well last time I checked the Spurs are a pretty good defensive team and LA didn’t have much trouble scoring on them. Also not to be overlooked is the fact that Boston has played five more total games during the playoffs.

The bottom line is this; the Lakers are playing their best ball of the season right now and peaking at exactly the right time (20-4 in their last 24 games overall). Their offense is clicking on all cylinders and to steal a line from Greg Anthony “They are the best passing team since the 1972-73 New York Knicks.” Oh yeah, and they have the best player on the planet…having the best season of his career.

However like any fan I am worried about one thing…rebounding. Gasol, LO, Turiaf and maybe even Kobe must focus on at least breaking even on the glass. Because just like former LA coach Pat Riley said back in the day, “No rebounds, no rings.”

Prediction: I know everyone is all hyped up for this get-together, but I fear for the league’s sake that this series won’t be near as competitive as most think. Lakers in 5.