NBA Finals

Much like last year I’m lacking the motivation to write about the Finals but I’ll try to muster something for my handful of loyal readers.  Rather than looking at regular season statistics like I normally do I instead looked at playoff stats only and what I found was a little surprising.  The teams are pretty close on everything but Cleveland has the edge in defensive efficiency (98.5 to 98.9), offensive efficiency (108.6 to 107.3), rebound rate (53.8 to 52.3), turnover ratio (11.6 to 14) and opponent 3-point percentage (28.1% to 31%).  The most shocking number has to be the Cavaliers sporting the better offense in the post season thus far.  But the best stat in Cleveland’s favor is holding the opposition to 28.1% from three.  Golden State has the advantage in true shooting percentage (55.5% to 54.4%), threes made per game (11.5 to 10.4), 3-point percentage (38% to 35.9%) and pace factor (96.6 to 93).  None of those are really all that surprising. 

When it comes to individual matchups the main event is always who guards LeBron James?  I expect the Warriors to rotate through Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.  On paper those are three pretty good options for the “best player in the world.”  With Kyrie Irving claiming to be less than 100% I don’t think Stephen Curry will have much trouble with him, but if Curry struggles look for Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston to get their turns as well.  On the flip side a healthy Kyrie would struggle containing Curry so look for Iman Shumpert to spend plenty of time on him and even LeBron taking him in crunch time.  It would not surprise me at all if Matthew Dellavedova somehow “hustled” his way into Steph’s legs at some point either.  If Shumpert is on Curry then who guards Klay becomes an issue for the Cavs.  J.R. Smith or James Jones are probably the best options, but neither is what I’d even call an average defender. 

The keys for Cleveland to win will be to control the pace of the game and crash the offensive glass.  I don’t see the Cavs having much of a chance if the games become shootouts because they flat out do not have the firepower to go blow-for-blow with GS for 48 minutes.  For the Warriors I think Coach Steve Kerr would be wise to not double The King and force every other player to beat them.  As I see it LeBron can get 40+ points and Cleveland could still lose by double digits.  It will be up to Green, Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and whoever plays out of David Lee & Marreese Speights to make sure they finish defensive possessions with rebounds.  If GS can just stay even on the boards I have a difficult time seeing how they can lose. 

I originally thought the Warriors would win in five but the more I think about it I have a feeling that Irving is playing possum a little with how hurt he is.  Obviously if he were 100% this would be a different series, and if Kelly Olynyk hadn’t gone WWE on Kevin Love’s arm I might have even picked the Cavs to win.  The people picking Cleveland right now are all in on the “LeBron is the best player in the world” line of thinking.  To them I say wasn’t LeBron the best player in the world last season too?  An argument can be made that his supporting cast was better in Miami also.  GS just has so many historically great numbers on their side it would truly be a massive upset to me if they lost.  I’ll give the Cavs another game because of The King but no more.  Dubs in 6.