Mid-Season Report
With Indiana having finally played their 41st game on 1/23 it’s time for the eighth annual MSR. In the East five teams are eliminated as opposed to only three in the West (sorry Clippers) with seeding in question up and down the standings in both conferences. I’d say this season has lived up to its lofty expectations thus far.
OPFG% = opponent field goal percentage
RBDF = rebound differential
3P% = 3-point field goal percentage
* = teams I had making the playoffs in October
EAST
1. *Boston Celtics (34-10) – They have survived injuries to Kevin Garnett (right calf), Rajon Rondo (left ankle), Shaquille O’Neal (right hip), Delonte West (right wrist) and Jermaine O’Neal (left knee) without missing a beat. While the Cs defense is still stout (5th in OPFG%) it’s their league best shooting (50.3% as a team) that has been carrying them. They are the side to beat at the half way point as I see it.
2. *Miami Heat (31-13) – They flat out overwhelm teams with their talent, athleticism and speed on most nights but they do play some serious defense (2nd in OPFG%) too. Mike Miller (right thumb) is back in the rotation and Mario Chalmers has replaced Carlos Arroyo as the starting PG but if Udonis Haslem (left foot) isn’t ready by playoff time I just don’t think Chris Bosh will have the help up front to get the job done.
3. *Chicago Bulls (31-14) – They are first in OPFG% (42.3%) and second in RBDF while missing Joakim Noah (right thumb) for 21 games and Carlos Boozer (right pinkie) for 18. The combination of Derrick Rose’s greatness and Tom Thibodeau’s coaching is proving to be a very tough combination to beat. If VP John Paxson can acquire a SG (Stephen Jackson/O.J. Mayo) they could legitimately win the East.
4. *Atlanta Hawks (29-16) – As long as Al Horford (right ankle) returns soon and Marvin Williams’ back injury doesn’t linger they are the club none of the other top four want to see in a 7-game series. They still know how to use their athleticism on defense in big games but if they are to really be considered a legit threat Director Rick Sund has to upgrade the PG position (apologies to Mike Bibby & Jeff Teague).
5. *Orlando Magic (29-16) – They went 13-3 from 12/23 to 1/22 after trading for Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and shot 41.4% from three over that same stretch. The defense (7th in OPFG%) and rebounding (4th in RBDF) is still there too. With Dwight Howard you can never count this group out but shaky PG play and lack of big man depth will likely be their downfall.
6. *New York Knicks (23-21) – They have had almost perfect health outside of Danilo Gallinari (left knee) so I’d say this is about their ceiling. They don’t rebound enough (28th in RBDF) to be taken seriously but a first round playoff exit will be a step in the right direction. And for the record, I don’t think trading for or signing Carmelo Anthony and pairing him with Amar’e Stoudemire is a recipe for success.
7. Philadelphia 76ers (19-25) – If you are Comcast-Spectacor Chairman Ed Snider or President Peter Luukko I guess you are happy with the job Coach Doug Collins has done. The Sixers are 10th in OPFG%, play hard every night and are no longer a punch line. But should Philly fans really feel like the 7th seed is progress? I sure don’t and not playing Marreese Speights and Evan Turner more is very short sighted.
8. Charlotte Bobcats (18-25) – They are 9-6 since replacing Larry Brown with Paul Silas as coach and are certainly more entertaining to watch too. I doubt they can stay this high with Tyrus Thomas (left knee) set to miss about eight weeks, GM Rod Higgins shopping everyone on their roster and no LB to pull a late season miracle. The last two seeds in the East are a crapshoot though and they are in that mix.
*Indiana Pacers (16-25) – I’ve been a long time defender of Coach Jim O’Brien but those days are over. It took him 32 games to figure out that Tyler Hansbrough was better than Josh McRoberts. He’s also rotating Mike Dunleavy and Brandon Rush as starting SG and still refuses to play Darren Collison big minutes, These guys have more than enough talent to make the playoffs but do they have the coaching?
*Milwaukee Bucks (16-26) – Ersan Ilyasova and Keyon Dooling are the only two Bucks to appear in every game so far. While injuries certainly have played a major part in Milwaukee’s struggles I think GM John Hammond may have damaged their chemistry with the addition of ball hogs like Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden and Earl Boykins. I still expect them to make a big time run when they get healthy though.
Detroit Pistons (17-28) – President Joe Dumars is surely to blame for this mess right now but he’s not really being allowed to fix things with the ownership situation in limbo. I’m sure Joe would love to buyout team cancer Richard Hamilton and see what he could get for Tayshaun Prince’s expiring contract. Sadly for Dumars and Coach John Kuester the new owner will probably fire both of them almost immediately.
Washington Wizards (13-31) – I give Coach Flip Saunders credit for playing young guys like Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Nick Young and John Wall (when healthy) big minutes when they haven’t earned them. With the team going nowhere fast it makes tons of sense to get the youngsters experience. Wall being so injury prone so early does worry me a little but they did manage to get rid of Gilbert Arenas.
Toronto Raptors (13-32) – They are last in OPFG% (48.3%) and 3P% (32.1%) which is not a winning combination. They have missed Leandro Barbosa (right hamstring) and Sonny Weems (back) but neither of them is a major difference maker. And for as good as Andrea Bargnani has been Linas Kleiza has been equal parts a disappointment. Methinks GM Bryan Colangelo should freshen up his resume.
New Jersey Nets (13-32) – Now that they won’t be mortgaging their future so Carmelo Anthony can sell tickets to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn they can refocus on the task at hand. First Coach Avery Johnson must help Brook Lopez regain his confidence. Next Derrick Favors needs to play way more than he deserves. Last would be President Billy King finding a new home for Troy Murphy or buying him out.
Cleveland Cavaliers (8-37) – Losing Anderson Varejao (right ankle) for the season was a killer blow to their defense (29th in OPFG%) and overall morale. Then throw in Mo Williams (left hip) being out indefinitely and the Cavs are down arguably their two best players. The cupboard is pretty bare with assets for both GM Chris Grant to trade AND for Coach Byron Scott to develop. What a mess.
WEST
1. *San Antonio Spurs (38-7) – They are 3rd in 3P% and outside of Matt Bonner (right knee) and rookie James Anderson (right foot) they haven’t had any injuries to speak of. What concerns me about the Spurs is they are only 12th in OPFG% and I don’t think the way they currently play is conducive to playoff style basketball. I also see them coming back to the pack a little over the second half of the season.
2. *Los Angeles Lakers (33-13) – They are 3rd in OPFG% and RBDF against the easiest schedule so those stats and their record probably need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said I’ve been noticing a little more focus recently especially on defense and sharing the ball. Being without Matt Barnes (right knee) until early March hurts but if Kobe Bryant continues to play the role of facilitator they should be fine.
3. *Dallas Mavericks (29-15) – They struggled while Dirk Nowitzki (right knee) missed nine games and they also lost Caron Butler (right knee) for the season on top of Roddy Beaubois (left foot) not playing yet. All things considered they have to like their position but if they want to be taken seriously they need to rebound better (22nd in RBDF). It will be interesting to see what if anything Peja Stojakovic has left too.
4. *Oklahoma City Thunder (28-16) – They are 23rd in OPFG%, 29th in 3P% and Russell Westbrook actually has a higher PER than Kevin Durant yet they are still winning. They no longer sneak up on people and their effort on defense isn’t anywhere near what it used to be. I know GM San Presti is not about to panic but this club’s ceiling is probably the second round unless he makes a move.
5. New Orleans Hornets (30-16) – I’ve been waiting for them to falter for a while now and have finally accepted that they are for real. Coach Monty Williams has them playing serious defense (4th in OPFG%) and Chris Paul directs the slowest paced offense in the league. They grind you down possession by possession on both ends of the floor but if David West or Emeka Okafor gets hurt they are in big trouble.
6. *Utah Jazz (27-18) – The main problem I see with them, other than being 24th in RBDF, is that Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap duplicate each other’s talents and weaknesses. With Memo Okur back I’d like to see Coach Jerry Sloan move Millsap back to the bench, Al over to PF and start Okur in the middle. I think this would balance out both the bench and the starting lineup while giving Deron Williams more help.
7. Denver Nuggets (26-18) – The Carmelo Anthony trade speculation isn’t going away and if you look closely enough you can see it is starting to wear on the team. They are 23rd in RBDF but Kenyon Martin (left knee) and Chris Andersen (right knee) appearing in more than 29 games combined would certainly improve that. Even if Melo stays I don’t see this group being more than one and done in the playoffs.
8. *Portland Trail Blazers (25-21) – They might have the worst doctors/surgeons/training staff in the entire NBA but even with all the injuries they are still a pretty good side. You have to give Coach Nate McMillan credit for keeping their heads right and to LaMarcus Aldridge for really stepping up his low post game. They should make the playoffs but GM Rich Cho has some tough personnel decisions upcoming.
Memphis Grizzlies (22-23) – They have performed much better than I thought they would under the “circumstances.” O.J. Mayo has been benched and is pouting, Zach Randolph hasn’t killed Mike Conley for his 5-year $45 million extension yet and Rudy Gay has a career high PER after his monster extension. If they can all stay on the same page these guys have a punchers chance at the post season.
Phoenix Suns (20-23) – They are last in RBDF and 28th in OPFG% so you know I don’t fancy their outlook. The truth of the matter is they probably need to consider blowing things up and starting over by trading Steve Nash. I don’t know what else to say besides congratulations to Owner Robert Sarver. I hope the savings was worth systematically dismantling the most entertaining team of the past decade.
*Houston Rockets (21-25) – They are hands down the most disappointing squad in the league and it’s not even close. I know Yao Ming (left ankle) is lost for the season and Aaron Brooks (left ankle) missed 24 games but this bunch has no clue how to win a close game. They also don’t play the type of defense (25th in OPFG%) that such a deep team should. I’d like to say they can still turn it around but I doubt it.
Golden State Warriors (19-25) – They are certainly better than I thought they would be but not by much. It’s kind of hard to believe that a side with David Lee and Andris Biedrins can be 29th in RBDF. Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and Dorell Wright have all been superb on some level but there is more to the game than offense. New Owner Joe Lacob has to clean house in the front office this summer and start fresh.
*Los Angeles Clippers (17-27) – Imagine if Baron Davis had showed up in shape (both physically and mentally) and Chris Kaman (left ankle) had appeared in more than 10 games. You combine those two with Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon and I wouldn’t look as stupid for picking them as a playoff team. Now that Gordon (right wrist) is out 3 to 4 weeks and with 24 road games left I can’t see them making a push.
Sacramento Kings (10-33) – The Maloof’s must be short on money or something since Coach Paul Westphal hasn’t been fired yet. They actually have a decent starting five of Beno Udrih (career high PER), Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins but they play no defense (26th in OPFG%) and don’t share the ball (28th in assists per game as a team) on offense.
Minnesota Timberwolves (10-34) – Believe it or not but they actually play at the fastest pace of any team in the Association. And thanks to the Kevin Love/Michael Beasley/Darko Milicic front line they are actually somewhat entertaining to watch. With that out of the way it’s hard to fathom just how little talent they have up and down their roster after so many years of high draft picks. “KAAAHHHNNN!!!”
Mid-Season Awards
Defensive Player – Dwight Howard (Orlando)
Sixth Man – Lamar Odom (Lakers)
Coach – Gregg Popovich (San Antonio)
Rookie – Blake Griffin (Clippers)
MVP – Derrick Rose (Chicago)
All NBA
PG – Derrick Rose (Chicago)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – LeBron James (Miami)
PF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)
OPFG% = opponent field goal percentage
RBDF = rebound differential
3P% = 3-point field goal percentage
* = teams I had making the playoffs in October
EAST
1. *Boston Celtics (34-10) – They have survived injuries to Kevin Garnett (right calf), Rajon Rondo (left ankle), Shaquille O’Neal (right hip), Delonte West (right wrist) and Jermaine O’Neal (left knee) without missing a beat. While the Cs defense is still stout (5th in OPFG%) it’s their league best shooting (50.3% as a team) that has been carrying them. They are the side to beat at the half way point as I see it.
2. *Miami Heat (31-13) – They flat out overwhelm teams with their talent, athleticism and speed on most nights but they do play some serious defense (2nd in OPFG%) too. Mike Miller (right thumb) is back in the rotation and Mario Chalmers has replaced Carlos Arroyo as the starting PG but if Udonis Haslem (left foot) isn’t ready by playoff time I just don’t think Chris Bosh will have the help up front to get the job done.
3. *Chicago Bulls (31-14) – They are first in OPFG% (42.3%) and second in RBDF while missing Joakim Noah (right thumb) for 21 games and Carlos Boozer (right pinkie) for 18. The combination of Derrick Rose’s greatness and Tom Thibodeau’s coaching is proving to be a very tough combination to beat. If VP John Paxson can acquire a SG (Stephen Jackson/O.J. Mayo) they could legitimately win the East.
4. *Atlanta Hawks (29-16) – As long as Al Horford (right ankle) returns soon and Marvin Williams’ back injury doesn’t linger they are the club none of the other top four want to see in a 7-game series. They still know how to use their athleticism on defense in big games but if they are to really be considered a legit threat Director Rick Sund has to upgrade the PG position (apologies to Mike Bibby & Jeff Teague).
5. *Orlando Magic (29-16) – They went 13-3 from 12/23 to 1/22 after trading for Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and shot 41.4% from three over that same stretch. The defense (7th in OPFG%) and rebounding (4th in RBDF) is still there too. With Dwight Howard you can never count this group out but shaky PG play and lack of big man depth will likely be their downfall.
6. *New York Knicks (23-21) – They have had almost perfect health outside of Danilo Gallinari (left knee) so I’d say this is about their ceiling. They don’t rebound enough (28th in RBDF) to be taken seriously but a first round playoff exit will be a step in the right direction. And for the record, I don’t think trading for or signing Carmelo Anthony and pairing him with Amar’e Stoudemire is a recipe for success.
7. Philadelphia 76ers (19-25) – If you are Comcast-Spectacor Chairman Ed Snider or President Peter Luukko I guess you are happy with the job Coach Doug Collins has done. The Sixers are 10th in OPFG%, play hard every night and are no longer a punch line. But should Philly fans really feel like the 7th seed is progress? I sure don’t and not playing Marreese Speights and Evan Turner more is very short sighted.
8. Charlotte Bobcats (18-25) – They are 9-6 since replacing Larry Brown with Paul Silas as coach and are certainly more entertaining to watch too. I doubt they can stay this high with Tyrus Thomas (left knee) set to miss about eight weeks, GM Rod Higgins shopping everyone on their roster and no LB to pull a late season miracle. The last two seeds in the East are a crapshoot though and they are in that mix.
*Indiana Pacers (16-25) – I’ve been a long time defender of Coach Jim O’Brien but those days are over. It took him 32 games to figure out that Tyler Hansbrough was better than Josh McRoberts. He’s also rotating Mike Dunleavy and Brandon Rush as starting SG and still refuses to play Darren Collison big minutes, These guys have more than enough talent to make the playoffs but do they have the coaching?
*Milwaukee Bucks (16-26) – Ersan Ilyasova and Keyon Dooling are the only two Bucks to appear in every game so far. While injuries certainly have played a major part in Milwaukee’s struggles I think GM John Hammond may have damaged their chemistry with the addition of ball hogs like Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden and Earl Boykins. I still expect them to make a big time run when they get healthy though.
Detroit Pistons (17-28) – President Joe Dumars is surely to blame for this mess right now but he’s not really being allowed to fix things with the ownership situation in limbo. I’m sure Joe would love to buyout team cancer Richard Hamilton and see what he could get for Tayshaun Prince’s expiring contract. Sadly for Dumars and Coach John Kuester the new owner will probably fire both of them almost immediately.
Washington Wizards (13-31) – I give Coach Flip Saunders credit for playing young guys like Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Nick Young and John Wall (when healthy) big minutes when they haven’t earned them. With the team going nowhere fast it makes tons of sense to get the youngsters experience. Wall being so injury prone so early does worry me a little but they did manage to get rid of Gilbert Arenas.
Toronto Raptors (13-32) – They are last in OPFG% (48.3%) and 3P% (32.1%) which is not a winning combination. They have missed Leandro Barbosa (right hamstring) and Sonny Weems (back) but neither of them is a major difference maker. And for as good as Andrea Bargnani has been Linas Kleiza has been equal parts a disappointment. Methinks GM Bryan Colangelo should freshen up his resume.
New Jersey Nets (13-32) – Now that they won’t be mortgaging their future so Carmelo Anthony can sell tickets to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn they can refocus on the task at hand. First Coach Avery Johnson must help Brook Lopez regain his confidence. Next Derrick Favors needs to play way more than he deserves. Last would be President Billy King finding a new home for Troy Murphy or buying him out.
Cleveland Cavaliers (8-37) – Losing Anderson Varejao (right ankle) for the season was a killer blow to their defense (29th in OPFG%) and overall morale. Then throw in Mo Williams (left hip) being out indefinitely and the Cavs are down arguably their two best players. The cupboard is pretty bare with assets for both GM Chris Grant to trade AND for Coach Byron Scott to develop. What a mess.
WEST
1. *San Antonio Spurs (38-7) – They are 3rd in 3P% and outside of Matt Bonner (right knee) and rookie James Anderson (right foot) they haven’t had any injuries to speak of. What concerns me about the Spurs is they are only 12th in OPFG% and I don’t think the way they currently play is conducive to playoff style basketball. I also see them coming back to the pack a little over the second half of the season.
2. *Los Angeles Lakers (33-13) – They are 3rd in OPFG% and RBDF against the easiest schedule so those stats and their record probably need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said I’ve been noticing a little more focus recently especially on defense and sharing the ball. Being without Matt Barnes (right knee) until early March hurts but if Kobe Bryant continues to play the role of facilitator they should be fine.
3. *Dallas Mavericks (29-15) – They struggled while Dirk Nowitzki (right knee) missed nine games and they also lost Caron Butler (right knee) for the season on top of Roddy Beaubois (left foot) not playing yet. All things considered they have to like their position but if they want to be taken seriously they need to rebound better (22nd in RBDF). It will be interesting to see what if anything Peja Stojakovic has left too.
4. *Oklahoma City Thunder (28-16) – They are 23rd in OPFG%, 29th in 3P% and Russell Westbrook actually has a higher PER than Kevin Durant yet they are still winning. They no longer sneak up on people and their effort on defense isn’t anywhere near what it used to be. I know GM San Presti is not about to panic but this club’s ceiling is probably the second round unless he makes a move.
5. New Orleans Hornets (30-16) – I’ve been waiting for them to falter for a while now and have finally accepted that they are for real. Coach Monty Williams has them playing serious defense (4th in OPFG%) and Chris Paul directs the slowest paced offense in the league. They grind you down possession by possession on both ends of the floor but if David West or Emeka Okafor gets hurt they are in big trouble.
6. *Utah Jazz (27-18) – The main problem I see with them, other than being 24th in RBDF, is that Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap duplicate each other’s talents and weaknesses. With Memo Okur back I’d like to see Coach Jerry Sloan move Millsap back to the bench, Al over to PF and start Okur in the middle. I think this would balance out both the bench and the starting lineup while giving Deron Williams more help.
7. Denver Nuggets (26-18) – The Carmelo Anthony trade speculation isn’t going away and if you look closely enough you can see it is starting to wear on the team. They are 23rd in RBDF but Kenyon Martin (left knee) and Chris Andersen (right knee) appearing in more than 29 games combined would certainly improve that. Even if Melo stays I don’t see this group being more than one and done in the playoffs.
8. *Portland Trail Blazers (25-21) – They might have the worst doctors/surgeons/training staff in the entire NBA but even with all the injuries they are still a pretty good side. You have to give Coach Nate McMillan credit for keeping their heads right and to LaMarcus Aldridge for really stepping up his low post game. They should make the playoffs but GM Rich Cho has some tough personnel decisions upcoming.
Memphis Grizzlies (22-23) – They have performed much better than I thought they would under the “circumstances.” O.J. Mayo has been benched and is pouting, Zach Randolph hasn’t killed Mike Conley for his 5-year $45 million extension yet and Rudy Gay has a career high PER after his monster extension. If they can all stay on the same page these guys have a punchers chance at the post season.
Phoenix Suns (20-23) – They are last in RBDF and 28th in OPFG% so you know I don’t fancy their outlook. The truth of the matter is they probably need to consider blowing things up and starting over by trading Steve Nash. I don’t know what else to say besides congratulations to Owner Robert Sarver. I hope the savings was worth systematically dismantling the most entertaining team of the past decade.
*Houston Rockets (21-25) – They are hands down the most disappointing squad in the league and it’s not even close. I know Yao Ming (left ankle) is lost for the season and Aaron Brooks (left ankle) missed 24 games but this bunch has no clue how to win a close game. They also don’t play the type of defense (25th in OPFG%) that such a deep team should. I’d like to say they can still turn it around but I doubt it.
Golden State Warriors (19-25) – They are certainly better than I thought they would be but not by much. It’s kind of hard to believe that a side with David Lee and Andris Biedrins can be 29th in RBDF. Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and Dorell Wright have all been superb on some level but there is more to the game than offense. New Owner Joe Lacob has to clean house in the front office this summer and start fresh.
*Los Angeles Clippers (17-27) – Imagine if Baron Davis had showed up in shape (both physically and mentally) and Chris Kaman (left ankle) had appeared in more than 10 games. You combine those two with Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon and I wouldn’t look as stupid for picking them as a playoff team. Now that Gordon (right wrist) is out 3 to 4 weeks and with 24 road games left I can’t see them making a push.
Sacramento Kings (10-33) – The Maloof’s must be short on money or something since Coach Paul Westphal hasn’t been fired yet. They actually have a decent starting five of Beno Udrih (career high PER), Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins but they play no defense (26th in OPFG%) and don’t share the ball (28th in assists per game as a team) on offense.
Minnesota Timberwolves (10-34) – Believe it or not but they actually play at the fastest pace of any team in the Association. And thanks to the Kevin Love/Michael Beasley/Darko Milicic front line they are actually somewhat entertaining to watch. With that out of the way it’s hard to fathom just how little talent they have up and down their roster after so many years of high draft picks. “KAAAHHHNNN!!!”
Mid-Season Awards
Defensive Player – Dwight Howard (Orlando)
Sixth Man – Lamar Odom (Lakers)
Coach – Gregg Popovich (San Antonio)
Rookie – Blake Griffin (Clippers)
MVP – Derrick Rose (Chicago)
All NBA
PG – Derrick Rose (Chicago)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – LeBron James (Miami)
PF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)
posted by D$ at 10:13 AM
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