8.15.2008

USA-Spain Preview

Being that Team USA “got up” mentally for the Greece game, I’m expecting a typical NBA style let down against Spain (8/16 at 10:15 AM on NBC). That’s not meant to be an indictment of any of the guys on the national team specifically, but when NBA players get geared up for a big game they generally lose that edge in the next contest and come out flat. Maybe it’s human nature, or just NBA nature, but for whatever reason it happens.

The Spanish are chock full of NBA players both past, present and future. Case in point: All but two of their nine-man rotation has NBA experience. In fact they are so deep that two NBA players AREN’T even on their Olympic roster (Sergio Rodriguez - Portland & Fran Vazquez - Orlando). While coach Aito Garcia Reneses has been juggling his rotation/lineup throughout the tournament to throw scouts off, I think we’ll see him go with his top dogs against the Americans.

Jose Calderon (Toronto) and 17-year-old phenom Ricky Rubio (a top 5 pick in 2009 per Chad Ford) will run the point. Rudy Fernandez (Portland) and Juan Carlos Navarro (Memphis) split SG duties. Carlos Jimenez, Felipe Reyes and Jorge Garbajosa (Toronto) make up the forward rotation. And the Gasol brothers, Pau (Lakers) and Marc (Memphis), man the center position.

Obviously talent is not an issue for Spain, but neither is basketball IQ or athleticism. Their nine main rotation guys, with the exception of youngsters Rubio and M. Gasol, have been playing together on the national team for between 5 and 7 years. That means they know each other’s tendencies and won’t panic or quit if they get down early or are in a tough situation.

The Spaniards have been statistically the best rebounding squad in the tournament thus far, including being the top unit on the O-glass too, so Team USA really has to buckle down there. I also expect Spain to play many different types of zone defenses against us. 2-3, 3-2, match-up, box-and-1, etc; you name it and they’ll probably try it. I’m interested to see if the Spanish get caught up playing “NBA ball” with the Americans strictly out of habit. If they do that favors us big time.

Kobe “Doberman” Bryant has been given Fernandez as his assignment. And Dwight Howard better be exceptionally physical with P. Gasol in the low post or the Howitzer’s days of playing big minutes might be at an end.

Overall though I actually don’t expect either group to show their full hand knowing full well they will likely meet again in the gold medal game on 8/24. That’s not to say they don’t want to win, but both sides know this game doesn’t mean that much in the grand scheme of things.

I like the USA in a close one decided down the stretch of the 4th quarter. However I could also see Spain pulling it out in crunch time too. Should be interesting…

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