NBA Finals Preview

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
San Antonio – 45.02%
Cleveland – 42.03%

Rebound Differential
San Antonio – -0.81
Cleveland – +5.75

Shooting
San Antonio – 46.27%
Cleveland – 42.74%

3-Point Shooting
San Antonio – 38.73%
Cleveland – 33.59%

Free Throw Shooting
San Antonio – 73.86%
Cleveland – 74.44%

Turnovers
San Antonio – 13.31
Cleveland – 12.56

Fouls
San Antonio – 21.13
Cleveland – 21.13

Pace Factor
San Antonio – 92.7
Cleveland – 88.8

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn v Larry Hughes & Eric Snow/Damon Jones – Containing Parker is going to be key for the Cavaliers because when Tony is able to break down the defense and get into the lane at will, the opposition is in big trouble. The question is who has the quickness to stay in front of TP? I’d say the only guy with even a remote chance is “Boobie”, and if Parker is hitting his mid-range jumper, the answer becomes no one. Hughes (torn plantar fascia left foot) is obviously not right, but by gutting it out he’s able to contribute at least a little something.

I expect Vaughn to see spot minutes off the bench as Parker’s backup and to possibly provide full court pressure against whoever is bringing the ball up for Cleveland. Snow would see major minutes in this series if he wasn’t a complete liability on offense. As is he’ll be a nice veteran leader who makes smart decisions and controls the tempo. Jones has risen from the dead and should see time here and there when no one else’s outside shot is falling.

Shooting Guard
Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili v Sasha Pavlovic & Daniel Gibson – Fin is finally right where he always wanted to be, and has actually been playing some pretty good ball lately. Michael is really just a place holder these days, however he can still be counted on to play smart and hit an open shot from mid-range to out deep. Pavlovic hustles and plays hard but his offensive game is scary bad the majority of the time. That’s why Sasha’s main job will be to keep Ginobili in check as much as possible. Call me crazy, but I actually think Pavlovic will do a decent job defending Manu.

Speaking of Ginobili, if he comes off the bench energized with his jumper on the Cavs will be in a world of hurt. Manu has been very up and down this post season, but he does possess that certain something that allows him to rise to the occasion, so I anticipate he’ll be more up then down in the Finals. Gibson burst onto the national scene surprising everyone against Detroit (present company not included of course), but you can be sure that the Spurs will be ready for him. Although Daniel will contribute when he’s out there, being a major difference maker is another story all together. The Spurs are not the Pistons and will take away what “Boobie” does best.

Small Forward
Bruce Bowen & Brent Barry v LeBron James & Donyell Marshall – While it’s true Bowen will need to hit open threes, obviously his primary objective will be to do what he can against LeBron. Much, much easier typed than done I know. James took a big step in the last series, but now he’s playing against the varsity whose sole focus the last week has been on containing him and making him work for every little thing. Look, I’m a big Bron backer, but he is literally going to have to be off the charts for four games if Cleveland is to have a chance. Telling the “King” he can’t do something is not wise, so let’s just say the odds are against him. One thing that would make life easier for LeBron is if he posts Bruce up. Bowen does not have the strength to handle James down low, and Bron could get BB in foul trouble taboot.

Barry has looked awful the second half of the season and on into the playoffs. I’m sure Brent will see some minutes, but I don’t expect them to be very productive. Marshall falls into the category of getting time to make shots. However, just like Damon Jones, Donyell will get a quick hook if his jumper is not falling.

Power Forward
Tim Duncan & Robert Horry v Drew Gooden & Anderson Varejao – Duncan has been his normal brilliant self in the post season averaging 23.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, and 3.1 assists all while shooting a tidy 53.9% from the field. Being that Timmy is staring the rarified air of four rings right in the face, I look for him to be especially focused in this series. While I appreciate Gooden more than most, I don’t think he matches up very well against the “Big Fundamental”. I anticipate Drew spending most of his time on the bench in foul trouble. The rest of the time he’ll be griping at the refs doing his best Rasheed Wallace imitation.

Horry is really going to have to focus on boxing out and grabbing rebounds when he’s in there. Since crafty defense and timely shot making are really Robert’s specialty, he may have trouble against the superior size of the Cavs front line. Varejao’s defensive activity and agitating abilities are going to be needed to contain/frustrate Duncan. Tim is essentially unflappable, but if anyone can get to him it’s “Sideshow Bob”. As an added bonus, Andy has a chance to make himself some serious money this summer with a good performance in the Finals.

Center
Fabricio Oberto & Francisco Elson v Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Scot Pollard – Oberto’s activity and movement without the ball were big against Utah, and he should be able to do more of the same against Big Z. Fab may not be glamorous, but he’s an underrated passer for a big man and a sneaky flopper as well. Ilgauskas’ offense is an absolute must if Cleveland is going to have any success. Zydrunas needs to hit the open shot on the pick & pop as well as establish his hook shot down low. Z is probably going to draw Duncan quite a bit too, so Ilgauskas must stay on his feet, not bite on fakes and use his bulk to muscle Timmy off his spots.

After being the starter for most of the regular season Elson has practically disappeared in the playoffs. Part of that is the play of Oberto, but the other part is that Cisco doesn’t seem to always have his head in the game. Pollard gets a mention because his six fouls will come in handy against Duncan.

Coach
Gregg Popovich v Mike Brown – This is probably the biggest mismatch of the entire series. What’s not to like about Pop here? More experience, superior play designer and far better at in game & game-to-game adjustments. Heck, he’s probably even better at working the referees. While Brown deserves major kudos for the defense his team plays, he’s more then capable of making a (non)decision in crunch time that loses a game. Mike’s adjustments have been shaky all post season and his set plays out of timeouts are downright awful. That said, the one thing Brown does have going for him is inside knowledge of the tendencies of SA players (a la Don Nelson against Dallas).

Overall

As a cheerleader for the NBA I couldn’t be happier with this Finals matchup because a Spurs-Detroit series was dead on arrival in the media, with Joe Q Public and especially when it came to TV ratings. The Cavs were purposely built in the mold of SA, from management to coach to playing style, so this is literally a battle of teacher versus student. It shows too because both of these clubs play solid defense, smart offense and can’t shoot free throws worth a dime.

Cleveland must continue to play great D because that’s what got them here after all. The Cavs also have to be very careful not to get caught up in a running game with the Spurs. As tempting as it might be for the players, Cleveland has no chance to score with SA. The Cavs just need to keep the game close throughout and give LeBron a chance to take over and win it at the end.

As simple as it sounds, the Spurs have to focus on the boards because Cleveland is a great rebounding squad that thrives on second shot opportunities. Since shutting James down is pretty much impossible at this point, SA will have to sag in on defense to try and keep Bron’s driving lanes to a minimum. The second part of that equation is the Spurs recovering out to the Cavs shooters and making sure they don’t get uncontested looks.

I hesitate to even go here, but I get the feeling that the “King” is going to suffer some backlash from last year’s Finals where Dwyane Wade was basically Eliot Ness (untouchable). Maybe if the series is getting out of hand the referees might start giving LeBron some favorable calls, but I expect the zebras to “let them play” right from the start because there’s no way Commissioner David Stern wants to deal with that kind of conspiracy theory for a second Finals in a row.

Prediction: I’ll be honest, I see Cleveland as the third best team SA will have faced in the playoffs. That said, the longer LeBron can make this series last, the better it is for the NBA as a whole. As much as I’d like to predict a long hard fought series, I don’t see it happening because the Cavs just aren’t ready yet. Spurs in 5.